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Old 03-20-2020, 04:03 PM   #5141
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An option would be to support the anti-Mohammed bin Salman faction. Without American support, he's much more vulnerable.

Another option would to for US/Canada to embargo Russian and Saudi oil. Maxed out production in Canada and US is nearly enough for self-sufficiency.
Sweet baby jesus wouldn't this be nice. Maybe a guy could actually wotk a steady job for a living again and retire at a somewhat decent age.

North America looking after North America. What a concept.
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:15 AM   #5142
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While Trump was a little ahead of himself yesterday, there are quite a few reports this morning that Russia has agreed to cut production. Hopefully a sign that we're going to get a little price relief here in Alberta. Obviously, it's not perfect and damage has already been done, but it's still positive.
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Old 04-03-2020, 07:22 AM   #5143
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You need to cut 20 million barrels of production to balance the market right now. That’s 20% of every producing nations. Canada needs to cut about 800k barrels. We have shut in almost all the rail by now so that is part of way but if the industry is serious about improving the price environment it needs to be a global cartel that includes 8 million from OPEC, 2 million each from Russia, US, 800k from us and 7 million from the rest of the world.
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Old 04-03-2020, 08:57 AM   #5144
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Trump Admin is considering shutting in the Gulf of Mexico production. That would be about 2mbpd.
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Old 04-03-2020, 10:05 AM   #5145
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Trump Admin is considering shutting in the Gulf of Mexico production. That would be about 2mbpd.
Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
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Old 04-03-2020, 10:46 AM   #5146
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Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
I think it's a combination of worrying about the virus infecting isolated crews on production platforms, and GOM is Federal jurisdiction. Shale was already slowing at $50-60 last year, even with a cut and a bounce to $35-40 shale isn't making money.
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Old 04-03-2020, 10:46 AM   #5147
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Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
Jobs would be my guess (guessing at what Trump's thoughts might be). There are way more in the Permian than in the gulf if I had to estimate.
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Old 04-03-2020, 12:39 PM   #5148
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US rig count down 62 this week, 40 last week.
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:10 PM   #5149
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Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
The bankers wanting to get their money back would be my guess.
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:03 PM   #5150
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Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
I think the reservoirs in the Gulf are a lot more forgiving, and that production is simpler to shut-in.

My understanding is that with a lot of tight oil production, if you shut it in, it may not all come back
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:41 PM   #5151
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I’m expecting some kind of OPEC+ deal on Thursday. It was all fun and games to decide not to cut in March but it’s a whole different world now for Saudi and Russia and I think they understand that. The demand destruction is such that without a cut Brent prices will drop to 20, could drop to 10, and I’ve seen some articles suggesting that prices could go negative at a few hubs which would be unheard of. That’s obviously a scenario everyone would want to avoid. However, a cut from OPEC won’t be like the cuts that ushered in a mini boom from 17-19,it’s an emergency cut to keep Russia and Saudi from getting completely ####ed. Their goal would be to put prices in a range that’s still devastating to shale but tolerable for them, only now they’re pushing the price up into that range instead of down. The US might try to argue that their falling rig count and soon to be falling production counts as a de facto cut but I don’t think it’ll be enough to convince Saudi and Russia to do a mega cut.

For us here it’s pretty bleak. The “best case” scenario is that our companies lose money with OPEC+ cut deal keeping prices in the shale death/OPEC tolerable pain zone at $25 WTI. The worst case scenario is somehow OPEC can’t come to a deal which almost guarantees negative WCS pricing. The silver lining is we share a common goal with OPEC of wanting is shale production to go away, which it eventually will, but how many of our companies go down in the process. Companies in the US have the advantage of selling to the strategic petroleum reserve, but we don’t have one of those in Canada. Companies in the US don’t have a massive discount to WTI, but thanks to Justin and the gang we do. Companies in the US have the option to put oil in floating storage because they have access to the ocean, but again thanks to Justin and the gang we don’t. Turns our building critical infrastructure was important. Whoopsies
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:01 PM   #5152
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There is no way the cut is big enough. 20 million barrels need to come off the market.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:21 AM   #5153
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Yeah. Canada and in particular Alberta is in deep, deep, deep trouble. People are hand wringing over public sector cuts now? Lol
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:47 PM   #5154
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Oil Companies Are Collapsing, but Wind and Solar Energy Keep Growing

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/b...ar-energy.html

The renewable-energy business is expected to keep growing, though more slowly, in contrast to fossil fuel companies, which have been hammered by low oil and gas prices.
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Old 04-08-2020, 03:53 PM   #5155
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Looking forward to wind and solar starting your car in minus 30.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/stud...d-and-sunlight

Last edited by Yoho; 04-08-2020 at 04:02 PM.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:01 PM   #5156
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Nm
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:18 PM   #5157
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Why the hell would you do that and keep the disaster that is shale oil going?
Most of the Gulf is on Federal leases.

Outside of New Mexico, there are no federal leases in the Permian.

(And the Federal leases in New Mexico are probably only around 40% of the producing properties in that State, with the remainder being a mix of State and Fee lands)
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:47 PM   #5158
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Per various on Twitter:

OPEC+ is cutting 10 MM for May and June (Saudi 2.5, Russia 2.5, remainder 5)

Decreases to 8 MM for the remainder of the year, and to 6 MM from January 2021 to April 2022.


Next meeting in June and many others during that period, of course. Over to G20 now...
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:54 PM   #5159
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What start point is the 10MBPD if it's April levels it isn't a true 10M. Is Saudi really going to 7.3 or back to 9.8?
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:56 PM   #5160
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1248336182175506432
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