Election Prediction Contest

[rubecube]

I seem to remember this being done in past elections, so I'll try and run one for this one. Categories are

Popular vote (pick the party you think will win the popular vote)

Seat share (predict the number of seats for each party)

Minority or Majority

Next PM (a.k.a. will the opposition allow the winner of a minority to form the government)

Sleeper pick (pick a riding that goes to an unexpected winner)

[rubecube]

Popular vote: Liberals

I think the breakdown will be something like this

LIB 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 21%
GRN 5%
BQ 4%
OTH 1%

Seat share:

LIB - 143
CPC - 101
NDP - 92
GRN - 3
BQ - 1

Minority or Majority:

Liberal minority

Next PM:

Justin Trudeau

Sleeper pick:

Wouldn't be a huge shocker because it's Vancouver Island, but I could see Nanaimo-Ladysmith going to the Greens, who are currently running in third.

[EldrickOnIce]

Just for fun...

LPC 34%
CPC 33%
NDP 23%
Green 5%
Bloc 4%
Other 1%

Minority

CPC 130
LPC 128
NDP 77
Green 1
Bloc 2
Other 0

PM - Steven Harper (defeated on throne speech) followed by Justin Trudeau without another election.

Thomas Mulcair will lose his riding in Outremont

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Thomas Mulcair will lose his riding in Outremount

I'd have a good laugh, especially with how the NDP were trying to play dirty pool with Trudeau's riding.

[Parallex]

Popular vote: Liberals


LPC 36%
CPC 32%
NDP 22%
GRN 5%
BQ 4%
OTH 1%

Seat share:

LIB - 128
CPC - 118
NDP - 86
GRN - 1
BQ - 4

Minority or Majority: Liberal Minority

Next PM: Justin Trudeau

Sleeper pick: Matt Grant, Calgary-Confederation

[FlameOn]

Guessing it'll be a LPC minority government with Trudeau as PM. Not sure about the riding.

Popular vote
LPC - 36%
CPC - 30%
NDP - 24%
Others - 10%

Seats:
LPC - 140
CPC - 100
NDP - 95
Other - 3

[GirlySports]

Popular vote: Liberals

Breakdown

LIB 40%
CPC 32%
NDP 18%
GRN 5%
BQ 4%
OTH 1%

Seat share:

LIB - 180
CPC - 100
NDP - 54
GRN - 3
BQ - 1

Minority or Majority:

Liberal Majority

Next PM:

Justin Trudeau

Sleeper pick:

The end of Tom Mulcair, will lose his own seat in Outremont.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Just for fun...

LPC 34%
CPC 33%
NDP 23%
Green 5%
Bloc 4%
Other 1%

Minority

CPC 130
LPC 128
NDP 77
Green 1
Bloc 2
Other 0

PM - Steven Harper (defeated on throne speech) followed by Justin Trudeau without another election.

Thomas Mulcair will lose his riding in Outremont

Wait. Is this actually a thing? Someone who doesn't win the most seats in the house can be Prime Minster? That seems crazy.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Wait. Is this actually a thing? Someone who doesn't win the most seats in the house can be Prime Minster? That seems crazy.

Yep.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadi...election,_1925

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Wait. Is this actually a thing? Someone who doesn't win the most seats in the house can be Prime Minster? That seems crazy.

I had him winning the most seats without having the highest popular vote

But to your question, it has happened once:

Liberal minority after the 1925 election- This was a truly minority Parliament throughout its life. The election resulted in the incumbent Liberal government of Mackenzie King being reduced to 101 seats in the House of Commons, while the opposition Conservatives actually took the most seats (116). All others won 26 seats, 24 of them won by the Progressives. King chose to carry on in government and face the new Parliament seeking its confidence. From January to July 1926, King’s government sustained such confidence with the support of most of the Progressives (although in many cases only by one or two votes).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federa...ents_in_Canada

[Weitz]

That seems really stupid to me.

How can I support a government that doesn't even hold the most seats?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Weitz

That seems really stupid to me.

It's the general principle of parliamentary rule that the government has to have the confidence of the House.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Weitz

That seems really stupid to me.

How can I support a government that doesn't even hold the most seats?

Yet another example of Liberal corruption.

[mrkajz44]

Girly pretty much said exactly what I think will happen. A (somewhat) surprise Liberal majority. Turnout will be highest in decades and a large portion of the population that thought "my votes doesn't matter" will not think that way this election.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Wait. Is this actually a thing? Someone who doesn't win the most seats in the house can be Prime Minster? That seems crazy.

Yes, this is why there is no point of a CPC minority. Both NDP and LPC have both committed to not supporting the CPC as long as Harper is PM. If Harper delivers the throne speech and does not immediately ragequit/resign after the election, the government will just collapse and Trudeau will likely run as PM.

I'm pretty sure no one wants an immediate election again right after so a LPC/NDP coalition would likely be the alternative. Bad thing is the NDP would definitely have some sort of control in the next government. LPC minority would be preferable to this.

[FLAMESRULE]

LPC 38%
CPC 30%
NDP 21%
GRN 6%
BQ 4%
OTH 1%

Seat share:

LIB - 174
CPC - 107
NDP - 51
GRN - 2
BQ - 4

Minority or Majority: Liberal Majority

Next PM: Justin Trudeau

Sleeper pick: Matt Grant, Calgary-Confederation (not sure if sleeper, but Webber is a POS, so hoping Grant takes it)

[edslunch]

LPC 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 22%
BQ 5%
GRN 4%

Seats

LPC 132
CPC 135
NDP 54
BQ 10
GRN 1

CPC Minority
Defeated at throne speech
LPC form government with NDP support (not a coalition)
Harper resigns
Next election 2 years
Sleeper pic: Joe Oliver loses to someone I've never heard of

[CampbellsTransgressions]

Originally Posted by Weitz

That seems really stupid to me.

How can I support a government that doesn't even hold the most seats?

There is nothing in the Canadian constitution mandating that the party with plurality is the one that the PM is picked from. It's a convention that has basis in practice and not by any written rule.

A Conservative quite frankly will not be able to get anything done in our current political situation and will not be able to govern the country. A Liberal government stands a chance of governing by working with both parties (as the centre-right party although some may dispute that) and second most seats.

[Bunk]

LPC 38%
CPC 33%
NDP 21%
GR 4%
Bloc 3%
Other 1%

Seats:

LPC 144
CPC 119
NDP 73
GR 1
Bloc 1

[_Q_]

Popular vote:
Liberals - 42%
Conservatives - 28%
NDP - 22%
Green - 4%
Bloc - 4%

Seats:
Liberals - 152
Conservatives - 98
NDP - 85
Green - 2
Bloc - 1

Liberal Minority with Trudeau as PM

Sleeper pick - Calgary Signal Hill goes Liberal