Flames' Advanced Statistics

[Roof-Daddy]

Markstrom almost single handedly drags the canucks into the playoffs

Flames sign Markstrom

Markstrom almost single handedly drags the Flames out of the playoffs


Yeah, pretty much the life of a Flames fan.

Next up we will trade for Eichel and he (and his herniated disc) will turn into a gigantic $10 million AAV pumpkin.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Haven't the Flames always had really good advanced statistics since the start of the GG era? The Flames are the Corsi Kings of the NHL, they're basically top 5 or top 10 every year. But they've been a failure of a team because Treliving has constantly chased after elite analytics players who can put up high shot volumes but have zero finish. The sample size and data sets are quite large at this point and I think it's a more than fair conclusion to draw.

Based on what I've seen over the Treliving era, very few players on this team have one shot scoring capability or the talent to create their own high quality shot. Until this organization starts looking at things differently, they won't be doing anything differently.

Who are these elite analytics players he's chased after? Don't most players like that have obvious positive impacts beyond analytics?

Players acquired by Trelving:

Hamilton - terrible advanced stats before he got to Calgary. Solid in Calgary and Carolina since.

Lindholm - solid in Carolina, solid in Calgary. Isn't he what his advanced stats say he is?

Hanifin - 2 out of 3 years in Carolina he had below average metrics

Ryan - Good in Carolina, good in Calgary. His game is what his metrics suggest he is.

Hamonic - didn't have great underlying numbers on Long Island, wasn't brought in for those reasons clearly

Neal - numbers were coming off in Vegas, before he signed in Calgary

Bottom line you want players that have shot volume, that means they're in the offensive zone more than they're in their own zone. But I don't see any evidence that Treliving acquired players based on simple corsi numbers.

The Flames lack game breakers and individual talent, but the teams that have those players all picked in the top 5-8 players of deep drafts. Calgary's one shot at that was Sam Bennett.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Markstrom almost single handedly drags the canucks into the playoffs

Flames sign Markstrom

Markstrom almost single handedly drags the Flames out of the playoffs


Yeah, pretty much the life of a Flames fan.

Next up we will trade for Eichel and he (and his herniated disc) will turn into a gigantic $10 million AAV pumpkin.

Well this isn't true

team can't score is the biggest factor

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well this isn't true

team can't score is the biggest factor

Goaltending has been an issue for sure. It's pretty equal between stopping pucks and finishing.

But I wouldn't be as cruel.

I'd say the Markstrom injury cost the Flames a solid chance at the playoffs.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well this isn't true

team can't score is the biggest factor

The stats being posted in this thread say it's true.

One of the best teams advanced stats wise, and one of the worst team save percentages.

EDIT: After your edit, yes Markstroms play isn't the only reason the team is out, but it's one of the biggest reasons which I why I said "almost" single handedly.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The stats being posted in this thread say it's true.

One of the best teams advanced stats wise, and one of the worst team save percentages.

EDIT: After your edit, yes Markstroms play isn't the only reason the team is out, but it's one of the biggest reasons which I why I said "almost" single handedly.

Markstrom has a .930 and a GAA of under 2 in his last 12 games...6-6

"almost single handedly cost them the playoffs" is way off. He also stole their only wins in the first month or so.

Shooting percentage is 26th league wide...that is obviously the biggest factor.

How many games have the Flames scored enough goals but Markstrom lost it for them, not many. The games where he has been lit up the Flames score 2 or less anyway.

Rittich also has a worse record and worse save % winning only 4 of 12

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Markstrom has a .930 and a GAA of under 2 in his last 12 games...6-6

"almost single handedly cost them the playoffs" is way off. He also stole their only wins in the first month or so.

Shooting percentage is 26th league wide...that is obviously the biggest factor.

How many games have the Flames scored enough goals but Markstrom lost it for them, not many. The games where he has been lit up the Flames score 2 or less anyway.

Rittich also has a worse record and worse save %

Uh, he has a 0.922 save percentage in his last 12 games and they 7-5 not 6-6. Don't be making up your own numbers.

What about the 12 games before that?

0.882 save percentage and 4-7-1

The 22 games before?

0.889 save percentage and 9-12-1

He's a HUGE reason why they are missing this season.

[GioforPM]

I dunno. Save percentages are a bad stat in small sample sizes. I’d ask “which games did Markstrom lose for the team”.

Given the Eichel story today you also have to wonder if Markstrom should have been out longer. Especially when you look at his play before the injury, and recently.

[djsFlames]

No team gets in with .889 goaltending.

Through the middle part of the season though, the losing was a collective effort.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Uh, he has a 0.922 save percentage in his last 12 games and they 7-5 not 6-6. Don't be making up your own numbers.

What about the 12 games before that?

0.882 save percentage and 4-7-1

The 22 games before?

0.889 save percentage and 9-12-1

He's a HUGE reason why they are missing this season.

Team can't score is the #1 reason

26th in shooting percentage. Far more games have been lost because of a lack of scoring than goal tending. Look at the Flames record when they score 3+.

[SuperMatt18]

Speaking on Markstrom specifically.

He was really good to start the season in the first 13 games.

13 GP
SV%: .924 Save Percentage
GSAA: 7.67

Then had a really bad two games around the time he was injured before being shut down.

2 GP
SV%: .767
-6.30 GSAA (Woof those were two really bad games)

Then he was off hurt.

When he returned from injury he was not great, and struggled for the first 14 games or so.

13 GP
SV %: .884
GSAA: -8.82 (Third worst in the NHL in that time)

But now for the last 12 games he's been good again.

12 GP
SV%: .922
GSAA: 4.27

So it really was the stretch (2 games before his injury, 14 games he was injured, 14 games after he returned) where goaltending cost the team and Markstrom was no good. I'm optimistic that most of those midseason struggles for Markstrom were injury related though.

Edit: Updated the stats to be all situations instead of 5v5.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Who are these elite analytics players he's chased after? Don't most players like that have obvious positive impacts beyond analytics?

Players acquired by Trelving:

Hamilton - terrible advanced stats before he got to Calgary. Solid in Calgary and Carolina since.

Lindholm - solid in Carolina, solid in Calgary. Isn't he what his advanced stats say he is?

Hanifin - 2 out of 3 years in Carolina he had below average metrics

Ryan - Good in Carolina, good in Calgary. His game is what his metrics suggest he is.

Hamonic - didn't have great underlying numbers on Long Island, wasn't brought in for those reasons clearly

Neal - numbers were coming off in Vegas, before he signed in Calgary

Bottom line you want players that have shot volume, that means they're in the offensive zone more than they're in their own zone. But I don't see any evidence that Treliving acquired players based on simple corsi numbers.

The Flames lack game breakers and individual talent, but the teams that have those players all picked in the top 5-8 players of deep drafts. Calgary's one shot at that was Sam Bennett.

I agree with what both of you are saying. Taking a step back...why have we been spending at the cap 90% of the time since the cap came in if we are not a contender? Seems counter intuitive. Also outside of drafting at the top, the Flames have been short changing their scouting staff with the number of picks for over a decade. When we were successful in the 80s and early 90s we had more picks in each draft.

[dino7c]

I'm not saying it's not a factor

Just "almost single handedly cost them the playoffs" was way too harsh

With his .933 lately the Flames are barely over .500

Allen .908 Price .901 are 8 points up on Markstrom .905

Scoring is the #1 issue

Rittich won 4 of 12 with a .904

[SuperMatt18]

Let's look at the team has a whole in those stretches.

First 15 Games:

GP: 15
Points %: .567 (8-6-1)

5v5 Corsi For %: 50.8%
5v5 xGF %: 53.0%

Shooting Percentage: 10.2%
Save Percentage: .913 (9th)

First 15 games weren't so bad. Markstrom had a couple games where he really kept the team in it.

Then from Feb 16 (potential Markstrom injury) - March 5 things weren't great.

GP: 9
Points %: .389 (3-5-1)

5v5 Corsi For %: 50.4%
5v5 xGF %: 47.7%

Shooting Percentage: 7.8%
Save Percentage: .885

Just a horrible stretch from both an on-ice and goaltending perspective. This stretch is why Geoff Ward gets fired.

March 5th (Ward Fired/Markstrom returns) - April 5th (Flames had a 5 day break April 6-9).

GP: 16
Points %: .344 (5-10-1)

5v5 Corsi For %: 54.2%
5v5 xGF %: 52.1%

Shooting Percentage: 7.6%
Save Percentage: .887

This stretch killed the season. Underlying stats were good, but goaltending and shooting percentage was just cratered at that point and team had no confidence.

And now since that break they've been okay again.

April 6 - Now

GP: 12
Points %: .583 (7-5-0)

5v5 Corsi For %: 55.4%
5v5 xGF %: 59.8% (2nd in the league in this time)

Shooting Percentage: 9.6%
Save Percentage: .912

So the team overall did rebound under Sutter, they just got crap goaltending the first 16 games with him as coach as Markstrom tried to recover from his injury.

Flames first 15 games and last 12 games have been okay, going 15-11-1 in that stretch. But there is a 25 game stretch, right around where Markstrom got hurt, where this team was outright bad though. Going 8-15-2 in that stretch, and poor goaltending was a big part of that.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Who are these elite analytics players he's chased after? Don't most players like that have obvious positive impacts beyond analytics?

Players acquired by Trelving:

Hamilton - terrible advanced stats before he got to Calgary. Solid in Calgary and Carolina since.

Lindholm - solid in Carolina, solid in Calgary. Isn't he what his advanced stats say he is?

Hanifin - 2 out of 3 years in Carolina he had below average metrics

Ryan - Good in Carolina, good in Calgary. His game is what his metrics suggest he is.

Hamonic - didn't have great underlying numbers on Long Island, wasn't brought in for those reasons clearly

Neal - numbers were coming off in Vegas, before he signed in Calgary

Bottom line you want players that have shot volume, that means they're in the offensive zone more than they're in their own zone. But I don't see any evidence that Treliving acquired players based on simple corsi numbers.

The Flames lack game breakers and individual talent, but the teams that have those players all picked in the top 5-8 players of deep drafts. Calgary's one shot at that was Sam Bennett.

Brad Treliving is a big analytics guy, it's the first thing I heared about him the day he arrived here and I think it's fair to say, that the direction he's gone after is a higher shot volume, possession style game. Now I don't know what other top analytics players who were available at the time that we can compare the players you mentioned to, but what I do know is that Treliving team's have proven to be analytics darlings over his time here, but they can't get over the hump and they consistently disappoint year in and year out in the same type of manner.

I'm not saying I'm against advanced stats or analytics or anything, I want to make that clear. But what I am saying is that this team has lacked quality shooters which I've mentioned constantly in the past and that glaring problem still has not been rectified. If anything, it's worse than past years. That falls on Treliving's decision making, his pro scouting team and his overall philosophy.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

A few theories.

1) What we do know:
- Flames haven't finished, most of their key players are having down years for shooting percentage and on ice shooting percentage (Flames 16th five on five in shooting percentage as a team, 18th with the powerplay)
- Markstrom injury left a big chunk of the season where the Flames weren't getting the save (Flames 19th five on five in save percentage as a team, 25th when killing penalties).

2) The evolution of stats:
- Flames may be the poster team for how much a stat like high danger chances needs more shades of gray. Perhaps they do just enough to trigger an occurrence of a high danger event, but don't have the other elements to truly be dangerous.

3) Murphy's Law:
- Pretty much any and everything that could go wrong has gone wrong this season. Some bad luck is certainly in play.

Your point #2 is very insightful and I believe accurate.


Unless you count injuries as something good the Flames are the least injured team in the NHL. Derek Ryan 13 games worth 495k of cap space lost is the most impactful injury. Hanifin is the only Flames defenseman to miss a game to injury and they have 2 guys over 30 that are somewhat injury prone Tanev and Gio.


Maybe Monahan and Tkachuk are playing through injuries and that has not helped the team.

[chedder]

So bad shooting% means our guys shoot the puck but couldn't score on a one armed goalie without a stick?

That certainly jives with the eye test. Tons of low percentage angle shots and shots into the chest. There a just too many players on this team that even when they have the puck in a scoring area you just know they aren't going to bury it.

[Strange Brew]

It's tricky to look at league wide stats when in fact the NHL has operated as four separate leagues this season.

With no common opponents, it's harder to compare.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's tricky to look at league wide stats when in fact the NHL has operated as four separate leagues this season.

With no common opponents, it's harder to compare.

That is debatable, unless there are significant variances in goals and shooting percentages by division

You can certainly compare Markstrom’s stats to other goalies in the North

There also is some correlation having watched the games between Flames D and his stats

The Flames advanced stats look good because they often have a high volume of shots from the perimeter and high danger shots that aren’t dangerous.

Those stretches with low sv% don’t help either. When the first shot goes in, there is no subsequent shots like when the goalie stops the first one. Kind of kidding, the Flames did allow a lot of grade A chances that hung goalies out to dry

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

That is debatable, unless there are significant variances in goals and shooting percentages by division

You can certainly compare Markstrom’s stats to other goalies in the North

There also is some correlation having watched the games between Flames D and his stats

The Flames advanced stats look good because they often have a high volume of shots from the perimeter and high danger shots that aren’t dangerous.

Those stretches with low sv% don’t help either. When the first shot goes in, there is no subsequent shots like when the goalie stops the first one. Kind of kidding, the Flames did allow a lot of grade A chances that hung goalies out to dry

Goals and save percentage could be identical by division and you could still have drastic differences in quality of competition.