American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Mull]

Originally Posted by troutman

That district is deep red.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgi...ional_district

Yes I know I was making a lame joke I guess.

My point is, some of us were naïve enough to think that some republicans in congress would oppose Trump's talking points. We now have a situation where 3/4 of republicans believe the lie that the election was rigged.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/polit...aud/index.html

MAGA has taken over the right.

If I am not mistaken, when I was not a user here but a lurker. someone posted a theory from someone online (slight joke here, I think it was you but can't confirm) that elections are not won by convincing independents and the other side to vote for you, elections are won by getting your base to vote.

Given the republican conversion to MAGA, if that theory holds, MAGA republicans will win in the general.

[troutman]

What if true conservatives form a third party?


Prominent anti-Trump Republicans reject third party

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2AC053

Former Republicans Consider Forming Anti-Trump 3rd Party

https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-polit...rump-3rd-party

[Mull]

Originally Posted by troutman

What if true conservatives form a third party?

Democrat sweep for at least once cycle as the right fractures I guess?

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Mull

Democrat sweep for at least once cycle as the right fractures I guess?

Which is why it will never happen. As much as "true" conservatives bitch and moan about Trump and want him gone, they want power even more. So when push comes to shove they will still bend the knee like Romney to make sure the Democrats don't gain total control

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Which is why it will never happen. As much as "true" conservatives bitch and moan about Trump and want him gone, they want power even more. So when push comes to shove they will still bend the knee like Romney to make sure the Democrats don't gain total control

Some feel they can win the next mid-terms that way, but longer term this will be a big obstacle for them in 2024 and beyond.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by troutman

Some feel they can win the next mid-terms that way, but longer term this will be a big obstacle for them in 2024 and beyond.

The mid-term senate race is doable for the dems, I posted about it a while back (not 60 seats, but to get 51 and then have a real shot of changing the filibuster rules). Will be tight.

The house I haven't looked at. My understanding is the latest census favors the republicans, loosing a few Dem seats... but..

Everyone looks at how the Dems lost big in the house in 2020, I always thought that was a little bit of a incorrect perspective. My theory was that the house already had their "anti trump" election in 2018 midterms, and with the president running in 2020, the dems had no where to go but loose seats- they couldn't really push beyond their 2018 results. The swing was always going to be a net loss for the dems from 2018.

I feel this plays well into the mid terms, even more so with the dems spending being popular. If the last swing used the republican momentum up, it may swing further back to the dems

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Mull

As they say, dress for the job you want.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by New Era

And waste a billion dollars? Not a chance.

They can just suspend him. No need to set their cash cow free. I guess one thing is you’re either so rich you DGAF or you’re so poor that you DGAF. Some people will spew garbage because there are really no consequences.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Mull

Democrat sweep for at least once cycle as the right fractures I guess?

It's kinda fascinating, because here in Canada and in Alberta we have a history where a splinter parties off to the right of a conservative party, the conservative party tanking as a result, and then is forced to merge with the splinter on the splinter party's terms. A year ago I had thought that this might be something that could happen in the US with a Trump splinter, but splintering toward the center would be really unusual, because unified parties are almost always pushing toward the center because that's where they can pick up votes.

The splinter group needs to be okay with the idea that to get control of the Republican Party, they need to be willing to burn it to the ground. It's also much harder for a new party to carve out a voting block in the middle of the political spectrum compared with carving out support on the fringes.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by octothorp

It's kinda fascinating, because here in Canada and in Alberta we have a history where a splinter parties off to the right of a conservative party, the conservative party tanking as a result, and then is forced to merge with the splinter on the splinter party's terms. A year ago I had thought that this might be something that could happen in the US with a Trump splinter, but splintering toward the center would be really unusual, because unified parties are almost always pushing toward the center because that's where they can pick up votes.

The splinter group needs to be okay with the idea that to get control of the Republican Party, they need to be willing to burn it to the ground. It's also much harder for a new party to carve out a voting block in the middle of the political spectrum compared with carving out support on the fringes.

The problem with Canada's example is if I am not mistaken, both cases I can think of didn't really merge the existing party, but dragged the traditional party far to the right.

-Alliance and PC on the Federal stage got Harper and yanked right. He was "left" ish for the alliance standards at the start, but that had more to do with his minority government in my view then his party. Well that and from a fiscal side, a certain Mr. Flaherty if memory serves.

-Wildrose and PC.... UCP is the wildrose, not a PC party.

[rubecube]

And the base will eat it up with zero sense of irony.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1390475947611238406

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Mull

The problem with Canada's example is if I am not mistaken, both cases I can think of didn't really merge the existing party, but dragged the traditional party far to the right.

-Alliance and PC on the Federal stage got Harper and yanked right. He was "left" ish for the alliance standards at the start, but that had more to do with his minority government in my view then his party. Well that and from a fiscal side, a certain Mr. Flaherty if memory serves.

-Wildrose and PC.... UCP is the wildrose, not a PC party.

Maybe I kinda worded it poorly, but that was kinda my point, that in Canada it's a been essentially a power-play to pull the main party to the right. There are reasons why we should be skeptical of it being effective for a party to splinter to try and pull the main party toward the center.

[direwolf]

Given how ridiculously corrupt and shady this Arizona audit/recount is, it was only a matter of time before the DOJ weighed in.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...BingNewsSearch

The Justice Department on Wednesday issued a warning in the Republican-run Arizona Senate-ordered audit of the 2020 election ballots, saying the audit could be in violation of federal voting and civil rights laws.

The warning comes amid scrutiny over the audit of nearly 2.1 million ballots from Arizona's largest county, Maricopa, where election officials previously found no evidence of widespread voter fraud or other issues during the state's 2020 presidential election.

Pamela Karlan, principal deputy assistant Attorney General for the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice, warned Senate President Karen Fann, a Republican, in a letter obtained by CNN that turning over election materials to audit contractor Cyber Ninjas -- a Sarasota, Florida audit contractor hired by the GOP-controlled Arizona Senate -- could be a violation of the Civil Rights Act of 1960.

Karlan also wrote in the letter that there are "at least issues of potential non-compliance with federal laws enforced by the Department."

Karlan also noted that Cyber Ninjas' statement of work includes canvassing to "identify voter registrations that did not make sense, and then knock on doors to confirm if valid voters actually lived at the stated address" raises concerns of potential voter intimidation.

"The Department enforces a number of federal statutes that prohibit intimidation of persons for voting or attempting to vote," Karlan wrote, mentioning a section of the Voting Rights Act that prohibits voter intimidation. "Past experience with similar investigative efforts around the country has raised concerns that they can be directed at minority voters, which potentially can implicate the anti-intimidation prohibitions of the Voting Rights Act."

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Given how ridiculously corrupt and shady this Arizona audit/recount is, it was only a matter of time before the DOJ weighed in.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...BingNewsSearch

watch for the DOJ to be labelled communists next.

Its just the way the GOP are rolling right now.

[Dion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1390724854043774978

https://twitter.com/user/status/1390725903714508800

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by Mull

Yes I know I was making a lame joke I guess.

My point is, some of us were naïve enough to think that some republicans in congress would oppose Trump's talking points. We now have a situation where 3/4 of republicans believe the lie that the election was rigged.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/04/polit...aud/index.html

MAGA has taken over the right.

If I am not mistaken, when I was not a user here but a lurker. someone posted a theory from someone online (slight joke here, I think it was you but can't confirm) that elections are not won by convincing independents and the other side to vote for you, elections are won by getting your base to vote.

Given the republican conversion to MAGA, if that theory holds, MAGA republicans will win in the general.

No.

We now have a situation where 3/4 of republicans peddle the lie that the election was rigged.

[rubecube]

Never change, blue MAGA.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1391021496202670082

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Never change, blue MAGA.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1391021496202670082

I don't get it.

[Mayer]

Originally Posted by Dion

Psaki

Easily the worst press secretary that I can remember.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Mayer

Easily the worst press secretary that I can remember.

Were you literally born yesterday? Holy ####, what a bad take on the all time list of bad takes. Spicer alone might go down as the worst press secretary of all time, but you also had Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, and Kayleigh McEnnwhatever who were all unhinged from reality and literally lied every time they spoke.

Such an insane thing to say.