2017 Hurricane Season

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THE RAINS WERE going to come eventually. It was only a matter of when, and how bad.

With flooding from Tropical Storm Harvey still inundating Houston — exacting a toll of 31 deaths and incalculable damage so far — the city is left asking what could have been done to prevent the extent of the catastrophe, or at least diminish its effects. One of the questions is why federal funding that should have been in place to help Houston deal with flood mitigation never arrived.

Houston and surrounding Harris County, in Texas, had many ambitious proposals for flood mitigation projects lined up, but couldn’t afford them. And, despite the efforts of one of the city’s congressional representatives, Capitol Hill declined to fund the cash-strapped local governments.

https://theintercept.com/2017/08/31/...unds-al-green/

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

this is going to sound odd, but to me, it would be interesting to see one of these weather events in person.

of course I would want to know in advance that I could get out/survive

Same thought I had...until I went through 2 of them about a month apart in 2004.

Never want to be near one again.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

It's not possible unfortunately.

If we drive anywhere in Florida we'll probably still have to deal with this storm.

My wife cannot get on a plane...that's even IF we could get a flight out of here, which we can't.

The plan is for her to camp out at the hospital just before the storm hits. If she needs medical attention, they'll take care of her no problem. They have generators and the building is quite solid.

The only problem with that scenario is that I'm not allowed to go with her unless she's already in labour.



In central/west Boca. We're in a relatively safe space. As long as we don't get flood waters like Houston, we'll be ok. I'm sure I'll be losing some roof tiles after this one though.

Take care, friend.
Momma must be strong to put up with you on a daily basis, so she will ride this out like a champ - and you will all have incredible stories to tell.
Take the best care of them and yourself Cali, and please keep us posted.

[Hockeyguy15]

So is naming your baby Irma out of the question?

[Knut]

The good news is that it looks like they expect it to weaken to a Category 3 before it hits Florida.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

^ I'm not a religious man, but god willing. Category 3 off the gulf coast would be far more manageable than getting the full brunt of a Category 5 storm.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So is naming your baby Irma out of the question?

[EldrickOnIce]

^ Have looked at other models that suggest there is nothing to slow it down (landfall, mostly) before Florida.
Hope the above model is correct.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

^ Have looked at other models that suggest there is nothing to slow it down (landfall, mostly) before Florida.
Hope the above model is correct.

This is what I'm expecting as well. Category 4 is the likeliest since the waters are slightly cooler than if it went into the heart of the Caribbean. It will skirt over a little bit of land that might slow it down to a Cat 4 before making landfall in Florida. Then it seems to make a right turn and go straight up the pee-hole of America's wang.

If the center of the storm stayed in the middle of the state, that's the best case in some ways. It will dissipate faster, and it's very sparsely populated. Still some intense tropical storm winds for the bulk of the population on the coast, but not nearly as bad.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This is what I'm expecting as well. Category 4 is the likeliest since the waters are slightly cooler than if it went into the heart of the Caribbean. It will skirt over a little bit of land that might slow it down to a Cat 4 before making landfall in Florida. Then it seems to make a right turn and go straight up the pee-hole of America's wang.

If the center of the storm stayed in the middle of the state, that's the best case in some ways. It will dissipate faster, and it's very sparsely populated. Still some intense tropical storm winds for the bulk of the population on the coast, but not nearly as bad.

Doesn't look like much of a difference right now.

[OldDutch]

I just left Miami Monday, help my buddy start to put his boats away in concrete dry dock. At that time it was very much up in the air where it would hit.

Now he has a plane ticket to come up here Saturday at 7:30AM. I hope he gets out as he lives in Brickell just off the ocean. I saw what happened in 2005 and the windows blew out of a lot of high rises with Wilma.

Anyone here have any knowledge of when the airports will close? Like if wind is over a certain threshold? I don't have much confidence his flight will get out but I am really hoping.

EDIT:

Found my answer

https://twitter.com/iflymia/status/905448037547462656

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I just left Miami Monday, help my buddy start to put his boats away in concrete dry dock. At that time it was very much up in the air where it would hit.

Now he has a plane ticket to come up here Saturday at 7:30AM. I hope he gets out as he lives in Brickell just off the ocean. I saw what happened in 2005 and the windows blew out of a lot of high rises with Wilma.

Anyone here have any knowledge of when the airports will close? Like if wind is over a certain threshold? I don't have much confidence his flight will get out but I am really hoping.

That sounds dicey. I'd imagine given the size that they would get whatever they could flown on Friday, and not on Saturday. Just guesses though.

Spoiler!

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by accord1999

Nobody disputes Irma is a massive and very damaging storm if it hits Florida, but those sustained wind speeds are matched by Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. All of these currently trail the maximum sustained wind speed of Hurricane Allen (1980) and Irma's central pressure is unusually higher than the earlier hurricanes.

The only context free claims are the ones that blames every modestly unusual weather incident on climate change.

I think the trouble with this is that with higher sea levels in general, any time an average storm blows through, it will push a greater volume of water inland, causing damage that would normally be associated with a stronger storm. The strength or frequencies of storms don't need to increase to increase risk/consequence of storms provided sea levels are higher (and they are).

One would think that investment into infrastructure that helps mitigate such effects would be getting seriously talked about, or other adaptive measures that cost nothing like dissuading developing in swamps and drainage areas for example.

The effects that our industry have had are cumulative and enduring, they're not slowing down, and the solutions that have been thrown at "prevention" are ineffectual and have been totally hijacked by political rhetoric rather than leading to meaningful discourse and action. Much like this thread.

How do we provide energy and food for 1 - 1.5 billion people living in energy poverty TODAY? Same question for another 1 billion people arriving in the next 15 - 20 years? How do we ensure our societies make decisions based on BIOPHYSICAL REALITY as opposed to theoretical social science?

[CroFlames]

Stay safe Cali. CP will be thinking of you in this scary time.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Interesting set of live feed cams

#IRMA

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That sounds dicey. I'd imagine given the size that they would get whatever they could flown on Friday, and not on Saturday. Just guesses though.

Yes that is what I think will happen too. A huge long shot. Will keep hoping.

[Tinordi]

How do we provide energy and food for 1 - 1.5 billion people living in energy poverty TODAY? Same question for another 1 billion people arriving in the next 15 - 20 years? How do we ensure our societies make decisions based on BIOPHYSICAL REALITY as opposed to theoretical social science?

Seems like you're talking to me. What is this biophysical reality that you speak of? I've done long range carbon mitigation scenarios and the general consensus is that energy access is provided by a mix of renewable energy supported by thermal fuels. For example, India's renewable energy consumption increases by 600% and natural gas consumption by 300% from now to 2040.

Nobody who's seriously working on these issues disputes this.

But you ask, how is this possible to reduce GHG emissions while increasing NG consumption in India by 200 bcm? Because places like Europe and North America decrease their natural gas consumption by 500 bcm collectively.

[Knut]

Live from St. Thomas - US Virgin Islands

https://www.facebook.com/bernard.dal...type=3&theater

And it is down. Looked nasty.

[Knut]

Another stream
https://www.facebook.com/dawn.peters...type=3&theater

A shed is in the process of being torn apart.

[Snuffleupagus]

Crazy stat

Irma has now maintained 185 mph winds for 24 hours - no Atlantic or eastern Pacific hurricane in history has ever stayed this strong for so long.

And now the pressure is dropping