[News] 5 Flames file for arbitration (Lindholm, Jankowski, Hathaway, Kulak, Rittich)

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by TheKurgan

I agree, with the forward additions we have made I really don't see a place on this roster for Brouwer - he needs to be bought out. Otherwise the Flames will be looking at trading Frolik or Stone for picks, both have Modified No Trade Clauses so it will be tough to get good return, if any.

Frolik and Stone are good bottom pairing players so keeping them is a way better option than holding on to Brouwer.

Get it done Tre!

I think Stone and Frolik are options to move when making cap space for Tkackuk's next contract. This year, however, moving Brouwer makes the most sense in order to fit in the new guys.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I agree that Hanifin is trending in a similar direction as Hamilton, but in terms of his actual contract the fact that he has not yet scored +40 points is significant. The potential is certainly there, but I expect he actually has to hit it before negotiating off of Hamilton's deal.

I think we should be looking at how he projects, and get a solid cap friendly deal. If we can get Hanifin for 7 years at 5.35M, that lines up to be one heck of a steal if you believe in the player - and I think there's just as much reason (if not more) to believe in Hanifin in the same way we did with Hamilton.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I don't understand the logic here. Bridging a player doesn't capitalize on the players appreciated value. There's a reason so many GMs are handing out long term contracts to young RFAs: the player is worth more than their salary and AAV at years 5-8. But when you re-sign them in their late 20's, their value depreciates because they're not worth their salary or caphit in their later years.

Buying out Brouwer cost the team 6 million. If Hanifin cost 6 million for 8 years, those last three years are easily worth more than Brouwer's buyout. You have to think, Hanifins next contract could be 10-12 million one if he pans out to being a top pairing D-man. That's nearly double his worth!

It's also possible that an RFA signed to long term deal does not improve as expected, and is overcompensated for the entirety of the deal.

No buy out:
Brouwer 4.5 4.5 0 0
Hanifin 3.5 3.5 6.75 6.75
4th liner 0 0 1 1
TOTAL 8 8 7.75 7.75

Brouwer 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
4th liner 1 1 1 1
Hanifin 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
TOTAL 8 8 8 8

It's pretty close to a wash - of course it varies based on exact numbers of either Hanifin contract. You can subtract a million from the next 2 years of no buy out if you bury him. I don't give a crap about the owner's real money.

It comes down to how certain you are that Hanifin is a $5+M dollar player, and how certain you are that Brouwer will be a complete disaster again. I'll take the extra $1.5M available starting 2 years from now, even if it costs more than that to sign Hanifin then. Good problem to have.

[Dan403]

Wouldn't it just be easiest to send Brower to the minors?

Maybe he gets claimed. Doubt it. But there are Chirelli's and Bergevins in the league.

Even if he isn't claimed a portion of his hit comes off the cap.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Dan403

Wouldn't it just be easiest to send Brower to the minors?

Maybe he gets claimed. Doubt it. But there are Chirelli's and Bergevins in the league.

Even if he isn't claimed a portion of his hit comes off the cap.

a touch over $1M (1.025) would come off the cap if Brouwer were in the AHL, meaning our cap would still be carrying 3.475M.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Draft +1: OHL
Draft +2: 16 points
Draft +3: 25 points
Draft +4: 42 points

vs.

Draft +1: 22 points
Draft +2: 29 points
Draft +3: 32 points

Both scored 83 points through their first 3 pro seasons, and Noah Hanifin didn't go back for an additional year of development at the jr. level.

Dougie Hamilton scored 25 points while playing with:
65.8 CHARA,ZDENO - HAMILTON,DOUGIE
19.1 HAMILTON,DOUGIE - SEIDENBERG,DENNIS

Dougie Hamilton scored those 42 points while playing with:
56.5 CHARA,ZDENO - HAMILTON,DOUGIE
24.6 HAMILTON,DOUGIE - SEIDENBERG,DENNIS

Noah Hanifin put up 32 points this past season while playing with:
55.3 HANIFIN,NOAH - VAN RIEMSDYK,TREVOR
22.7 FAULK,JUSTIN - HANIFIN,NOAH

Yes but it's hard to utilize "Draft +" in this scenario because Hanifin was a half a year older than Dougie in their draft years. Plus there was a lock out and Dougie spent the whole first half of his draft +2 season in the OHL because of it and then only played 42 games.

Hanifin



Dougie




So at this point in their careers, they had the same amount of points (83), but Dougie had amassed those points in 61 less games.

They were both ending each season the same age, with Hanifin turning that age half way through the season.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I think we should be looking at how he projects, and get a solid cap friendly deal. If we can get Hanifin for 7 years at 5.35M, that lines up to be one heck of a steal if you believe in the player - and I think there's just as much reason (if not more) to believe in Hanifin in the same way we did with Hamilton.

Yep it would also be great if Hanifin were to sign for 2.5 x 7.

The deal that the Flames gave Hamilton was 6.4 x 6 in terms of 2018-19 cap.

Is Hanifin supposed to take a 1M home-town discount?

If Hanifin has anywhere near as good a year in 2018-19 as is expected, he will be a year closer to UFA and want a deal better than the Hamilton deal.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Yep it would also be great if Hanifin were to sign for 2.5 x 7.



The deal that the Flames gave Hamilton was 6.4 x 6 in terms of 2018-19 cap.



Is Hanifin supposed to take a 1M home-town discount?



If Hanifin has anywhere near as good a year in 2018-19 as is expected, he will be a year closer to UFA and want a deal better than the Hamilton deal.

Yeah, let’s use an extreme to make...no point at all? 7 years at 5.35 is a fair bit different than 7 years at 2.5.

Like others have pointed out, Hanifin isn’t coming off a 42 point season - so it’s likely that has a significant impact on his negotiating power at this stage.

We’ve seen other players sign long term deals prior to hitting it big.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

a touch over $1M (1.025) would come off the cap if Brouwer were in the AHL, meaning our cap would still be carrying 3.475M.

2 years of that = 6.95M

4 years of 1.5 = 6M


I'm a broken record, but I care more about future cap space when there might be a chance of being a cup contender, vs. our current hope of being a wildcard contender.

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It's also possible that an RFA signed to long term deal does not improve as expected, and is overcompensated for the entirety of the deal.

No buy out:
Brouwer 4.5 4.5 0 0
Hanifin 3.5 3.5 6.75 6.75
4th liner 0 0 1 1
TOTAL 8 8 7.75 7.75

Brouwer 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
4th liner 1 1 1 1
Hanifin 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
TOTAL 8 8 8 8

It's pretty close to a wash - of course it varies based on exact numbers of either Hanifin contract. You can subtract a million from the next 2 years of no buy out if you bury him. I don't give a crap about the owner's real money.

It comes down to how certain you are that Hanifin is a $5+M dollar player, and how certain you are that Brouwer will be a complete disaster again. I'll take the extra $1.5M available starting 2 years from now, even if it costs more than that to sign Hanifin then. Good problem to have.

With the "No Buy-out" scenario, you have Hanifin as 6.75 for 2yrs, but why would the Flames bridge Hanifin and then bridge him again, risking losing him to free agency in his prime?

If the Flames bridge him at 3.5 million for 2 years, they would likely sign him afterwards for a 7-8yr contract, thereby making his AAV upwards of 9 million (if he proves to be stud during his bridge years). What 24yr old top pairing guy is going to sign for 6.75 million on a long term contract, especially since he would have arbitration rights after a bridge contract.

Remember Subban?

[Strange Brew]

Hanifin’s TOI was less than Hamilton’s at the same point which I think is also relevant. I just don’t see why he would command the same ( % of cap) as Hamilton at the same point in his career. The kid has a ton of potential but with Hamilton’s physical gifts he was further ahead IMO.

Unrelated, but it might be healthy for fans to keep expectations in check for the young man. I don’t watch much Hurricanes’ hockey but I’m expecting a young defenseman who still makes a decent amount of mistakes.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

a touch over $1M (1.025) would come off the cap if Brouwer were in the AHL, meaning our cap would still be carrying 3.475M.

Originally Posted by MarkGio

With the "No Buy-out" scenario, you have Hanifin as 6.75 for 2yrs, but why would the Flames bridge Hanifin and then bridge him again, risking losing him to free agency in his prime?

If the Flames bridge him at 3.5 million for 2 years, they would likely sign him afterwards for a 7-8yr contract, thereby making his AAV upwards of 9 million (if he proves to be stud during his bridge years). What 24yr old top pairing guy is going to sign for 6.75 million on a long term contract, especially since he would have arbitration rights after a bridge contract.

Remember Subban?

The 6.75 would be for 7-8 yrs...I just stopped at 4 because it's the relevant length for Brouwer's buyout. Maybe a bit optimisitic that the Giordano max (perhaps by then it's considered the Gaudreau max). It's also on the presumption that a realistic 'stud' level is in the realm of Erik Johnson, Brent Seabrook...maybe even Mark Giordano type level. Of course he would cost more if he reached the next level above...again, a great problem to have...but probably less likely.

[Niemo]

I'm surprised at the seemingly high estimates for both Lindholm and Hanifin.

Slavin was much much better than Hanifin when he signed his extension last year of 5.3MM / 7 Years. Carolina obviously offered him much less. My guess is it ends up being 4.6MM / 7 years.

For Lindholm, it was reported that Carolina offered a bit over 4MM and he was asking about 5MM and they were 0.75MM apart on a long term. Why would the end number be in the mid 5MM like everyone is suggesting??? I'm calling 4.6MM / 7 years also.

[Brick]

Lindholm 5 x 5y
Hanifin 2.5 x 2y

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Niemo

I'm surprised at the seemingly high estimates for both Lindholm and Hanifin.

Slavin was much much better than Hanifin when he signed his extension last year of 5.3MM / 7 Years. Carolina obviously offered him much less. My guess is it ends up being 4.6MM / 7 years.

For Lindholm, it was reported that Carolina offered a bit over 4MM and he was asking about 5MM and they were 0.75MM apart on a long term. Why would the end number be in the mid 5MM like everyone is suggesting??? I'm calling 4.6MM / 7 years also.

He had two more points and half the goals Hanifin just put up...was also 2 years older. Not sure how he was better at all let alone much better. Hanifin also has the draft pedigree.

[combustiblefuel]

Lets see if Dougie can anchor his own pairing...


Lots of people are pointing out Hamilton and Hanifin have the same stats at similar ages. Let's not forget Dougie has only played with Norris Caliber defensemen . Yes Gio is Norris calibre . He would have won it the year he got injured.

Noah has similar stats playing with great defense partners but not elite.

Leta see wht happens in 2 years but Calgary might come out on top .

[Niemo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He had two more points and half the goals Hanifin just put up...was also 2 years older. Not sure how he was better at all let alone much better. Hanifin also has the draft pedigree.

Not just points, but mainly defensive play. Hanifin can get there, but he isn't there yet. I'm sure anyone would take Slavin over Hanifin, and I've liked Hanifin since his draft year.

That being said, I hope our D coach can help Hanifin release his full potential.... after he signs long term.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Niemo

Not just points, but mainly defensive play. Hanifin can get there, but he isn't there yet. I'm sure anyone would take Slavin over Hanifin, and I've liked Hanifin since his draft year.

That being said, I hope our D coach can help Hanifin release his full potential.... after he signs long term.

Interesting to point out that Slavin is 3 years older than Hanafin.

[Niemo]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Interesting to point out that Slavin is 3 years older than Hanafin.

If or when Hanifin gets to Slavin's level, it means we robbed Carolina. This assumes that Fox is meh and Lindholm is a 55 pt top 6 guy.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Brick

Lindholm 5 x 5y
Hanifin 2.5 x 2y

Hanifin should be over 3 on a 2 year deal... Trouba was 6m for 2 years 2 years ago.

Lindholm 5x5 is the best case scenario. 3 x 2 and 6.3 x3 prime ufa years.

That is 1.7M less than Backlund for prime UFA years.


Backlund got 5.35 for 6 which breaks down to 8, 8, 8, 3, 2, 2 Backlund was breaking down last season the season he turned 29. his 30-31-32 seasons are expected to be great as there is no pattern or reason to expect that 33-34-35 years will be at a 1a C level.

I feel that the Flames panicked and paid Backlund too much but there is not a lot of general complaining about the contract. If Backlund's contract is fair then 5x5 for Lindholm is a real bargain

Based on expectation that Lindolm is a better player than Backlund.