Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

I personally would not return due to the instability. Even if a great opportunity comes around, you are a $10 downswing in WCS from losing that job all over again. People always talked about the spectre of layoffs from companies going under, but it's often forgotten that there is the additional risk of your company being bought out from under you as the big boys consolidate during fire sales, therefore making you redundant yet again.

Having been through several of these O&G cycles... this ain't the last. There will be more. I've been through a few layoffs myself, and they suck.



That said, this 2020-21 downturn on top of the not-recovered 2015+ one has been incredibly damaging for many. I know a number of O&G professionals that retained their jobs since 2013 until now (and still are working) and they truly do not "get it" regarding how harsh it is out there now to be looking for work. That said, O&G will not and cannot simply disappear... historically as you look back 150 years it has taken several decades for major energy shifts to occur, and even then it's not always permanent, just different. The world still uses coal, steam, combustion engines, nuclear, solar, geothermal, hydro, etc... as the world continues to build infrastructure, materials and consumables, etc...



So, if anything, if you want to "protect yourself" from future cycles then consider the type of organization you work for... assuming you have a choice. A pure-play or single-source of income is highest risk, whereas if the organization has some diversity and already has active development/conceptual teams then that's lower risk.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

People always talked about the spectre of layoffs from companies going under, but it's often forgotten that there is the additional risk of your company being bought out from under you as the big boys consolidate during fire sales, therefore making you redundant yet again.

Isn't this the same of everyone's favorite white knight lately - the tech industry? Companies getting bought out every couple of years, and being absorbed into bigger acquirers who look to improve efficiencies and staff are cut?

Just look at some of the former tech stars of Alberta for that - SMART, Wi-Lan, Solium, BioWare, Cortex.

Most people in tech I know hop jobs every 2-3 years too. Maybe the lack of longevity goes both ways....

[Weitz]

Hope you filled up you’re vehicles recently.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/09/gaso...berattack.html

Fuel prices jumped in trading on Sunday night, as much of one of the largest pipelines in the U.S. remains closed following a cybersecurity attack.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse

Isn't this the same of everyone's favorite white knight lately - the tech industry? Companies getting bought out every couple of years, and being absorbed into bigger acquirers who look to improve efficiencies and staff are cut?

Just look at some of the former tech stars of Alberta for that - SMART, Wi-Lan, Solium, BioWare, Cortex.

Most people in tech I know hop jobs every 2-3 years too. Maybe the lack of longevity goes both ways....

Tech lives and dies by the quality of their product and innovations. You can see if you are working for a company that losing the innovation or marketshare game and move on as there are always other places to go to, rather than an entire industry that is constrained by commodity prices. If your tech company is picked up by a venture capital company or gets bought out by a bigger studio, your job and opportunities are usually secure as they invest in studios for their talent and IPs - not oilfield assets and plays.

Tech does not rely on a common global commodity price to determine if everybody can order double meat or is on EI the week after in very industry specific roles that are more difficult to transition. A full stack developer can work in almost any environment - not just specifically a tech company. An O&G production engineer has to move to another producer if they are even hiring.

Hopping jobs every 2-3 years because tech is changing is not the same as being forced to hop whenever energy prices dip low and uncertainty hangs over every other possible destination you could hop over to since every industry specific professional is competing for an increasingly limited number of jobs with the same titles.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse

Isn't this the same of everyone's favorite white knight lately - the tech industry? Companies getting bought out every couple of years, and being absorbed into bigger acquirers who look to improve efficiencies and staff are cut?

Just look at some of the former tech stars of Alberta for that - SMART, Wi-Lan, Solium, BioWare, Cortex.

Most people in tech I know hop jobs every 2-3 years too. Maybe the lack of longevity goes both ways....

In the past this was very much true for O&G. Difference this time around (since 2015) is there are way fewer startups due to the poisoned investment climate that has been created for the resource industry in Canada. Buyouts are starting to happen but there's nowhere to go if you are starting over.

[Rutuu]

The investment environment is poisoned in the US and Canada because E&Ps have over promised on growth, used debt to get it and smashed their profitability. Become a sustainably profitable business and investors will follow.

There are way to many management teams running around town at the high end of the cost curve that have a history of running companies that when I add CFO+CFI it's negative for years.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

The investment environment is poisoned in the US and Canada because E&Ps have over promised on growth, used debt to get it and smashed their profitability. Become a sustainably profitable business and investors will follow.

There are way to many management teams running around town at the high end of the cost curve that have a history of running companies that when I add CFO+CFI it's negative for years.

It was a shift that needed to happen. When I started my career I was absolutely dumbfounded that all investors wanted was growth and leveraged growth at that. It didn't make any sense.

Hopefully coming out of this these balance sheets will be tighter and capital projects will actually be supported with free cash flows rather than the delta being made up on lines of credit.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Tech lives and dies by the quality of their product and innovations. You can see if you are working for a company that losing the innovation or marketshare game and move on as there are always other places to go to, rather than an entire industry that is constrained by commodity prices. If your tech company is picked up by a venture capital company or gets bought out by a bigger studio, your job and opportunities are usually secure as they invest in studios for their talent and IPs - not oilfield assets and plays.

Tech does not rely on a common global commodity price to determine if everybody can order double meat or is on EI the week after in very industry specific roles that are more difficult to transition. A full stack developer can work in almost any environment - not just specifically a tech company. An O&G production engineer has to move to another producer if they are even hiring.

Hopping jobs every 2-3 years because tech is changing is not the same as being forced to hop whenever energy prices dip low and uncertainty hangs over every other possible destination you could hop over to since every industry specific professional is competing for an increasingly limited number of jobs with the same titles.

I think we're talking about different things here.

You're talking about developers at tech companies being able to jump companies because their skills are transferrable. No argument there, similar to accountants and lawyers - your trade is applicable to any company. If you're a reservoir engineer - perhaps not.

I was talking about your comment about having your company "bought out from under you". That happens to tech companies all the time as part of their exit strategy - it's an intrinsic part of their short lifecycles, outside of the Big Tech companies. Just like any company - when people get bought out, they get rich and leave - and the people that made it great leave, and the company goes into it's death spiral. If you're looking for an nice stable job at a single company for 5-15 years - I'd argue a tech company is not that place to be.

That all said - yes, I'd agree from an overall career longevity perspective - at this moment, there would be more job opportunities in the developer field than say, a reservoir engineer.

[Firebot]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colonia...s-price-rises/

In Marion, South Carolina, Yasheeka Wiggins said, "It was unbelievable. When I was driving today, I thought it was a catastrophe coming! I've seen all these cars waiting and I was like, 'OMG. I have to fill my tank up!'"

And that's a short term inconvenience only.

Michigan's governor wants to deliberately cause this mayhem permanently in her state solely due to ideology.

Ontario and Quebec's future as well, if they choose to continue to be blind to Energy East as the only viable national solution and Line 5 gets shut down

Unfortunately ideology, pixie dust and solar power don't power our cars.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Firebot

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colonia...s-price-rises/





And that's a short term inconvenience only.

Michigan's governor wants to deliberately cause this mayhem permanently in her state solely due to ideology.

Ontario and Quebec's future as well, if they choose to continue to be blind to Energy East as the only viable national solution and Line 5 gets shut down

Unfortunately ideology, pixie dust and solar power don't power our cars.

I think shutting down line 5 is stupid, but the market will find a way to move that product. There will be temporary supply disruptions, and then refined products will get moved by truck or some other method. They'll be permanently more expensive, but will be available to consumers.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think shutting down line 5 is stupid, but the market will find a way to move that product. There will be temporary supply disruptions, and then refined products will get moved by truck or some other method. They'll be permanently more expensive, but will be available to consumers.

Unfortunately, Ontario and Quebec will just increase tanker ship imports from unethical countries. Our nation is so broken it's comical. Pipelines, no. Tankers from Africa, yes. Hey, if we don't produce the carbon it doesn't count, right?

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1391865404063195138

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

https://twitter.com/user/status/1391865404063195138

[CaptainCrunch]

Trudeau in his presser today was talking about how they are still talking to their counterparts in washington. So they've really done nothing and have no traction.


Now will the government roll in with the National Guard to shoot up the control room and dynamite it. Probably not. Will Enbridge shut it down, doubtful, they'll defy the order, then we'll get into a nasty court battle, as Michigan tries to get a court order to shut it down and enbridge fights it. But will Trudeau step in and defy Biden here, because the governor is a key supporter and this is Biden's base.



I expect the oil will keep flowing for a while, but now we're going to have key supply uncertainty. The Libs really need to get a strategy in place to replace that pipeline which is likely dumping billions more outside of Canada for foreign oil which is enraging and hypocritical.

[burn_this_city]

With the colonial pipeline situation I think the Americans are actually in a semi pliable position here. I'm skeptical the Democrats are going to allow a manufactured fuel crisis while they tackle a real one on the eastern seaboard.

Personally think the Michigan Governor has backed herself in a corner and is probably hoping the courts don't actually shutdown the line. Although with ideologues its hard to know for certain.

Democrats have to manage energy prices or they will get hammered by Republicans on it in the midterms.

Liberals have to hope the situation resolves itself stateside before using the treaty.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1392162294759579648

[Salt Water Cowboy #10]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

https://twitter.com/user/status/1392162294759579648

“ critical energy and economic link between Canada and the United States.”

Too bad it’s so critical. Imagine if we had some sort of backup line we could use while this one is shut down or serviced. I guess we’ll just ship more oils through the Panama Canal from the west coast, or pipe it down to Alabama, and ship it back up to our country?

I’m also curious if the cyber attack on Colonial pipeline system was intentional to bring more light to this? The timing is good for line 5 anyway.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Salt Water Cowboy #10

I’m also curious if the cyber attack on Colonial pipeline system was intentional to bring more light to this?

um, by who, COSIA? Now that is an image ha.

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1392217688789987332


In otherwords, Biden ain't touching this

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1392265265719689216

"this case raises concerns regarding the efficacy of the historic framework upon which the u.s.-canada relationship has been successfully managed for generations," ottawa said.
Michigan's move "threatens to undermine important aspects of that cooperative international relationship," it added.

michigan gov. Gretchen whitmer wrote to enbridge on tuesday threatening to seize company profits if line 5 continues to operate past the wednesday deadline.
"the state intends to assert claims for trespass and unjust enrichment against enbridge at the appropriate time," whitmer wrote, adding michigan was confident it would win the ongoing legal battle.