[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Just as a starting point, in 2003-04 there were nine players in the NHL aged 40 or older. Most years since the '04 lockout there have been four or fewer, and in 2023-24, Giordano was the only one.

This year Suter, Perry, Burns and Fleury will join the club. So could have 5? Possibly Bellemare too, if he finds a job?

Carter, Parise and Pavelski both just retired at 39... Although I guess Pavelski announced his retirement a few days after turning 40 but didn't actually play after 40.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by dino7c

we can go on and on but Drai's 2nd half of his career will be less productive than the first...spoiler

Really, this is the bottom line of all this. As interesting as trying to project the decline is to some of us.

And, not only will it be less productive, it will be more expensive - both in terms of nominal dollars and percentage of cap.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Slightly off topic but I do think a lot of players these days might be over training and spending too much time in the gym/ on the ice. As Enoch Root pointed out, careers haven't really extended all that much, if anything in some ways you find A LOT less players who are 35+. Gio was the oldest player last year in the NHL and was fresh 40 with relatively low milage on him for a player. In the 90's there were a lot of players who played 40+.

NFL QB Tom Brady did extensive work on athletic performance well into your 40's. Talked about how the training is somewhat counterintuitive. As you age, you need more rest and recovery but in order to maintain and improve fitness, you need to work out more and harder.

Lifting heavy weights, eating foods that don't help with inflammation and more don't help with longevity. I do think a lot of NHL players are somewhat behind in terms of overall nutrition compared to what some players in soccer for example. The NHL is just so steak, chicken and pasta heavy.

classic

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

classic

Curves knows more about everything than anyone else

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you think they should have done?

They realistically had no other choice, but that doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Oilers for being cornered into sticking with an old team filled with legacy contracts, without any legacy behind them, and increasingly bleaker prospects moving forward.

Edmonton is no good.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you think they should have done?

Deferred 104M to year 9

[looooob]

Originally Posted by blankall

This year Suter, Perry, Burns and Fleury will join the club. So could have 5? Possibly Bellemare too, if he finds a job?

Carter, Parise and Pavelski both just retired at 39... Although I guess Pavelski announced his retirement a few days after turning 40 but didn't actually play after 40.

the trend going forward will be interesting to monitor- the names above are for the most part all part of the 2003 draft class viewed as one of the best ever

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Deferred 104M to year 9

While that changes the cap hit, as it drastically changes the NPV, to the point that there is zero chance that Draisaitl accepts it.

Why would he effectively accept less money?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Deferred 104M to year 9

Is that even allowed

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

classic

It's an area I have always found very interesting and you can already see subtle change taking place within NHL players as more and more information comes to light.

The TB 12 method, the so called method used by Tom Brady was mocked in a lot of ways for a long time until he actually was able to be arguably the best QB in the league at 45. Imagine an NHL player at 45 being the best or one of the best at their position.

The Vancouver Canucks department has been working with Tom Brady's center in Boston for a while.

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/the...ce-performance

Patrick Kane's trainer, Ian Mack, has been working out with other NHL players doing very very different workouts for strength, core, flexibility and muscle longevity. This is very different training philosophy to take pressure off joints and muscles that leads to damage, instability, groin pulls, hip joint issues and more https://www.instagram.com/ianjmack/?hl=en

Players today are way more explosive and fit today than before but that is also a result of increased workloads in the summer. Players are getting onto the ice in June and July to work on skills and more. I think that long term that becomes a little more of a mistake for longevity.

In a recent interview McDavid pretty much said it was a bit of a mistake last season that they started an unofficial training camp in early September, it lead to a disaster of a start. They were able to correct and go to the finals but this summer he wanted more rest and recovery and less volume.

Anyways to keep it back on topic, Leon's contract should age ok

[Paulie Walnuts]

They also fired the coach, and had historic winning streaks. Did any of that have to do with over training?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by curves2000

It's an area I have always found very interesting and you can already see subtle change taking place within NHL players as more and more information comes to light.

The TB 12 method, the so called method used by Tom Brady was mocked in a lot of ways for a long time until he actually was able to be arguably the best QB in the league at 45. Imagine an NHL player at 45 being the best or one of the best at their position.

The Vancouver Canucks department has been working with Tom Brady's center in Boston for a while.

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/the...ce-performance

Patrick Kane's trainer, Ian Mack, has been working out with other NHL players doing very very different workouts for strength, core, flexibility and muscle longevity. This is very different training philosophy to take pressure off joints and muscles that leads to damage, instability, groin pulls, hip joint issues and more https://www.instagram.com/ianjmack/?hl=en

Players today are way more explosive and fit today than before but that is also a result of increased workloads in the summer. Players are getting onto the ice in June and July to work on skills and more. I think that long term that becomes a little more of a mistake for longevity.

In a recent interview McDavid pretty much said it was a bit of a mistake last season that they started an unofficial training camp in early September, it lead to a disaster of a start. They were able to correct and go to the finals but this summer he wanted more rest and recovery and less volume.

Anyways to keep it back on topic, Leon's contract should age ok

Great post, and lots of good info.

As to the bold though, I think we should be weary of that conclusion. We have a fair bit of data that shows getting off to a late start in camp leads to a poor start to the season. I don't think a single, bad start should lead to a conclusion that the early camp caused that bad start - simple coincidence seems like a more likely explanation.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by curves2000

It's an area I have always found very interesting and you can already see subtle change taking place within NHL players as more and more information comes to light.

The TB 12 method, the so called method used by Tom Brady was mocked in a lot of ways for a long time until he actually was able to be arguably the best QB in the league at 45. Imagine an NHL player at 45 being the best or one of the best at their position.

The Vancouver Canucks department has been working with Tom Brady's center in Boston for a while.

https://www.nhl.com/canucks/news/the...ce-performance

Patrick Kane's trainer, Ian Mack, has been working out with other NHL players doing very very different workouts for strength, core, flexibility and muscle longevity. This is very different training philosophy to take pressure off joints and muscles that leads to damage, instability, groin pulls, hip joint issues and more https://www.instagram.com/ianjmack/?hl=en

Players today are way more explosive and fit today than before but that is also a result of increased workloads in the summer. Players are getting onto the ice in June and July to work on skills and more. I think that long term that becomes a little more of a mistake for longevity.

In a recent interview McDavid pretty much said it was a bit of a mistake last season that they started an unofficial training camp in early September, it lead to a disaster of a start. They were able to correct and go to the finals but this summer he wanted more rest and recovery and less volume.

Anyways to keep it back on topic, Leon's contract should age ok

Double Classic

[blankall]

Originally Posted by looooob

the trend going forward will be interesting to monitor- the names above are for the most part all part of the 2003 draft class viewed as one of the best ever

I was responding to a post about 9 40+ guys in the 2003/04 season. That group included: Larionov, Messier, Chelios, Oates, Ron Francis, McInnes, and Dave Andreychuk. The only none hall of famers were Steve Thomas (still pretty good) and James Patrick.

The number of 40 plus players may have more to do with the strength of the draft class than any changes in the game.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by blankall

I was responding to a post about 9 40+ guys in the 2003/04 season. That group included: Larionov, Messier, Chelios, Oates, Ron Francis, McInnes, and Dave Andreychuk. The only none hall of famers were Steve Thomas (still pretty good) and James Patrick.

The number of 40 plus players may have more to do with the strength of the draft class than any changes in the game.

It had a lot to do with the weakness of several draft classes in the 1990s, as well. Enough Europeans came into the league to supply adequate talent to the expansion teams. But only half as many kids were born in Canada in 1980 as in 1961, the peak year, and that means a lot fewer top-quality Canadian athletes became draft-eligible in 1998 than in 1979.

The Dead Puck Era was a reaction to expansion and demographics. With fewer good young players, old players were able to stand off the competition a little longer. But as a player ages, his skating slows down and his scoring tends to dry up, while his defensive game can actually continue to improve because of sheer experience. Couple that with coaches who know they haven't got the talent to win high-scoring games, and play slows to a crawl. The league was crowded with players who had to play the trap because it was the only way they could be effective.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Are you asking what I think Edmonton should have done with respect to Draisaitl?

If you were GM of the Oilers what direction would you have taken? Trade him? Let him play out the deal and walk? Trade him for a vet and try to still compete? Trade him for prospects and try and retool?

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

They also fired the coach, and had historic winning streaks. Did any of that have to do with over training?

I dunno, maybe they are connected and maybe they are not. I don't know if the end result would have been different and they won the cup, but who knows? Looking back at the finals, it does appear that Florida pretty much forcing players like Bob to get off the ice and away from the rink played a role. Edmonton was practicing powerplays and came out flat.

I do know when a player like McDavid says "I over trained last summer, started skating too early. You can't win the cup in September but you can put yourself in a bad spot early" I pay attention to comments like that cause I think it's indicative of subtle changes that may be happening.

In the end, who knows what will happen with Leon and his contract? He could continue to produce at incredible numbers or he could turn into a Huberdaeu style contract that becomes a team killer.

[McG]

As many have noted, Draisaitl signing regardless of amount was likely the best outcome for shelbyville.

People with the time or correct software can get a more accurate calculation, however assuming an inflation rate of 3%, $85 million today would be $115 million in 2034. And $115 million today would be almost $155 million in 9 years. It’s quick and dirty math, but even without a rate of return higher than the 3% and assuming full payment up front or at the back, the variances are significant. For my math friends, I moved the entire contract to the start and end and not annually as is the actual case.

Another statistical anomaly that happened, and it could have happened at any point during the season, but how about the throwing in the towel too soon by Vegas, or the overtime LA game that gave the greasers the preferred pathway in the playoffs. It happened, but it wasn’t expected.

Similarly, Crosby looks like playing into his 40s. Should Crosby or other statistical outliers be used to justify the Draisaitl contract, or should the most likely outcome of significant decline be used?

What about contract years, or a reduction in effort now that the contract has been signed?

I don’t know, nor does anyone else.

Sure seems lots of hopes riding on past lottery balls!

[InternationalVillager]

Crosby just dropped 94 points at age 36.

Arguably he could have got to 100 points as he only played 50 games with Guentzel.

Going into his Age 37 season, he just said he wants a several year extension.

So I think it is VERY likely that McDavid is dropping 100 point seasons at his age and then by and large give Draisaitl 90% of that.

Prior to Age 35, I think Drai will hit 100 points on a per game basis each year simply due to McDavid and the PP.

So he's worth the contract as I've said numerous times. I don't think there is a cliff to come that many are expecting here.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If you were GM of the Oilers what direction would you have taken? Trade him? Let him play out the deal and walk? Trade him for a vet and try to still compete? Trade him for prospects and try and retool?

I would have traded him to FLA for one 6th round pick and retained 50% of his salary because I hate the Oilers and want to see them fail.