[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Even if one believes this contract will be painful in a few years, if they win a cup in the next 2-3 years none of that matters.

Good think they likely won't. A lot of things went their way in the playoffs that isn't likely repeatable.

[Titan2]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Even if one believes this contract will be painful in a few years, if they win a cup in the next 2-3 years none of that matters.

Honestly, how likely do you think that is? Based on everything discussed in this thread put a percentage on them out-performing every team that has had an a average age over thirty?

I put it at 5%. And that seems high.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Titan2

Honestly, how likely do you think that is? Based on everything discussed in this thread put a percentage on them out-performing every team that has had an a average age over thirty?

I put it at 5%. And that seems high.

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

[FanSince'01]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Window has 2 seasons left.

They're cooked at that point when everyone has received their raises. Add that to the decline/expiry of the derpth and inability to shell out near the same AAVs as they have been.

Their team will be as shallow as their media's grasp of the game/its rules.

I know we all rag on the Oilers here because it's our job as fans of their primary rival, but I'm gonna be honest... I'm not even sure if their window even has two seasons left. I personally think this season is their last "real" kick at the can until they hit true level 9 salary cap hell and their days as a true "top tier" contender are done.

Even though McDavid's new contract wouldn't kick in for 2 more years, Draisaitl's extra 5.5 million will be on the books next year and Bouchard is going to need a hefty, hefty raise as well. Unless they can somehow convince him to take a 1 year bridge for a miniscule raise, they're going to have only about 4 million in cap space (depending on how much the cap goes up by) to fill 5-6 roster holes, which is a tall task. And Bouchard has Arb rights so I don't see why he'd sign a low money deal when an arbitrator would likely award him more than what Nurse is geting currently...

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Even if one believes this contract will be painful in a few years, if they win a cup in the next 2-3 years none of that matters.

That's the same basically when any team signs a number of older players to retirement deals.

As long as they win the Cup, its all worthwhile.

But there is no guarantee of winning a Cup of course, but teams need to try and see where it goes.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

just curious are you referring to this year specfiically? (Irrelevant-somewhat- for the Draisaitl deal- though I suppose not in a total vacuum as they may not want to go into this season with that uncertainty)


or top 3 favorites over the next 3 years?


you might be right, I know my disdain for them taints them, but I see them in the mix with more like 10 teams not 3 , and unless they make a few other slick moves their chances will be going down (in subsequent years) more into that 'you can never count out the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl tier' than this is one of the top 3 teams in the league tier. IMO

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

I would put them at 3rd most likely to come out of the West (behind DAL and COL).

There are probably 5 teams in the East that are legitimate contenders.

Then the Western rep has a 50/50 chance against the Eastern rep.

So I would definitely not say top 3 - in the discussion, with the other 7-8 legitimate contenders. But no reason to think they are ahead of any of them.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

That’s not what you said the first time.
You said “he’s not supposed to help them make the playoffs”.
Now you’ve changed your position.
I don’t understand why that’s so difficult to understand.

Originally Posted by Buff

Skinner wasn't all that successful. Individually maybe but he hasn't contributed to a winning team. He's never helped a team make the playoffs. For the sake of his streak I hope the Oilers miss the playoffs.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

But that's not his role in Edmonton. The heavy lifting is done by McDrai, RNH, Bouchard, Ekholm, S. Skinner. In other places, he was expected to be one of the leaders at the front. Major difference.

What are you talking about?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanSince'01

And Bouchard has Arb rights so I don't see why he'd sign a low money deal when an arbitrator would likely award him more than what Nurse is getting currently...

He would get less than Nurse from an arbitrator, as that award would be 1-2 years IIRC. Nurse's deal covered 8 years and many UFA years. Apples and oranges.

Now Bouchard will get a big raise, but not to Nurse's level.

If the Oilers go long term with him, he'll be in that league though.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

Thank you.

Glad I'm not the only one on this board that sees it as a probably reality. All the betting sites have them a top 2 or 3 team, all media (whether national, local, beat, blog) has them as one of the favorites, moneypuck.com Power Rankings had them as one of the top teams last year. Let's just avoid all data.

We got saved by the hockey gods that they didn't win the Cup last year. Yes - they got a lot of things to go their way. Well so did Florida and so does every team that wins the Cup. Instead of taking a humbled approach, these same posters are acting like we won the Cup ourselves by knocking out the Oilers. Should be thankful we got saved by the Panthers. No attitude of gratitude whatsoever.

As long as Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl, they have a kick at the can and that's no good for Flames fans. It seems we're going to have to endure this for another decade. Laugh all you want at what might happen in a few years but this gives me no peace.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

To win the Cup?

The Oilers did go the finals last year, but they had some luck to do so. You might even say that any team that goes to the finals likely had some good luck along the way.

But I don't consider them a favourite by any means.

They are likely one of 8-10 teams that have a realistic shot at winning the Cup this year.

[InternationalVillager]

Oilers are the betting favorites to win the Cup.

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navig...ab=stanley-cup

You think betting companies who have invested hundreds of millions/billions across the industry for algorithms to set these lines are stupid? They have some of the most intelligent quants.

There's a reason they are the betting favorites and it's not because "Oilers fans" are betting down the line and there's a reason why they're projected to win 50+ games this season.

Whether they do or not, that's why the game is played. But to come out and say they are a top 10 team at best is just lying to yourselves. They're a top contender and it is what it is.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would put them as one of the top 3 favorites.

I don't know if I like you anymore

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FanSince'01

I know we all rag on the Oilers here because it's our job as fans of their primary rival, but I'm gonna be honest... I'm not even sure if their window even has two seasons left. I personally think this season is their last "real" kick at the can until they hit true level 9 salary cap hell and their days as a true "top tier" contender are done.

Even though McDavid's new contract wouldn't kick in for 2 more years, Draisaitl's extra 5.5 million will be on the books next year and Bouchard is going to need a hefty, hefty raise as well. Unless they can somehow convince him to take a 1 year bridge for a miniscule raise, they're going to have only about 4 million in cap space (depending on how much the cap goes up by) to fill 5-6 roster holes, which is a tall task. And Bouchard has Arb rights so I don't see why he'd sign a low money deal when an arbitrator would likely award him more than what Nurse is geting currently...

They have 10 forwards, 5 D, and 2 goalies signed for next year, totalling $78.2M. If we assume a 5% increase, that would put the cap at $92M, leaving them $11.8M to work with.

Bouchard is going to cost $9-10M. The minimum cost for the remaining 6 players would be roughly $4.8M, meaning that if Bouchard costs anything more than $7M, they will have to shed more cap space off the roster. Also, Emberson would be without a contract, so if - as Oiler fans would have you believe - he is actually able to contribute, he too would be looking for a raise, out of that same insufficient pile.

Even with that, that means no upgrades anywhere in the lineup, and everybody gets yet another year older (with Draisaitl joining the 30-something club). And 6 spots on the roster would be filled with replacement-level players.

This year's team is not as good as last year's IMO.

Next year's team is going to be worse, and the (by far) oldest team in the league will be yet another year older. It's too early to say the window is already closed, but anyone suggesting that it is still wide open for the next two years, should probably take a closer look.

Oh, and ALL of the conversations assume that Skinner will continue to perform between the pipes. If he falters AT ALL, they're dead, because they have no money to solve the problem.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Oilers are the betting favorites to win the Cup.

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navig...ab=stanley-cup

You think betting companies who have invested hundreds of millions/billions across the industry for algorithms to set these lines are stupid? They have some of the most intelligent quants.

There's a reason they are the betting favorites and it's not because "Oilers fans" are betting down the line and there's a reason why they're projected to win 50+ games this season.

Whether they do or not, that's why the game is played. But to come out and say they are a top 10 team at best is just lying to yourselves. They're a top contender and it is what it is.

yeesh.....part of me wants to warn you not to go to Vegas, another part of me thinks you should
books set their odds on action......thats how they stay in business

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

yeesh.....part of me wants to warn you not to go to Vegas, another part of me thinks you should
books set their odds on action......thats how they stay in business

Yeah the point is it's not just "Oilers fans". It's a whole lot of people more than that. It's the sum of all bettors. That one part of the general population of all bettors doesn't have THAT significant of an influence.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Oilers are the betting favorites to win the Cup.

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navig...ab=stanley-cup

You think betting companies who have invested hundreds of millions/billions across the industry for algorithms to set these lines are stupid? They have some of the most intelligent quants.

There's a reason they are the betting favorites and it's not because "Oilers fans" are betting down the line and there's a reason why they're projected to win 50+ games this season.

Whether they do or not, that's why the game is played. But to come out and say they are a top 10 team at best is just lying to yourselves. They're a top contender and it is what it is.

Betting Favourites - only means that WAY too many people bet on the Oilers to win, despite the evidence.

The Oilers and Leafs are always way too high on "betting favourites" lists becasue of this reason.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Oilers are the betting favorites to win the Cup.

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navig...ab=stanley-cup

You think betting companies who have invested hundreds of millions/billions across the industry for algorithms to set these lines are stupid? They have some of the most intelligent quants.

There's a reason they are the betting favorites and it's not because "Oilers fans" are betting down the line and there's a reason why they're projected to win 50+ games this season.

Whether they do or not, that's why the game is played. But to come out and say they are a top 10 team at best is just lying to yourselves. They're a top contender and it is what it is.

You understand that betting odds are a function of how much money is being wagered on the various teams, right? No, clearly you don't.

Betting firms aren't in the business of picking winners (they know they can't do it any better than anyone else can), they are in the business of keeping the bid/ask spread, and a percentage of the action. As long as the amount of money being bet on each side is in proportion to the payout (that is what their 'intelligent quants' are calculating), they keep their margin.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Yeah the point is it's not just "Oilers fans". It's a whole lot of people more than that. It's the sum of all bettors. That one part of the general population of all bettors doesn't have THAT significant of an influence.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You think betting companies who have invested hundreds of millions/billions across the industry for algorithms to set these lines are stupid? They have some of the most intelligent quants

No, the tens of thousands that bet on the Oilers at this time of year are stupid.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by looooob

just curious are you referring to this year specfiically? (Irrelevant-somewhat- for the Draisaitl deal- though I suppose not in a total vacuum as they may not want to go into this season with that uncertainty)


or top 3 favorites over the next 3 years?


you might be right, I know my disdain for them taints them, but I see them in the mix with more like 10 teams not 3 , and unless they make a few other slick moves their chances will be going down (in subsequent years) more into that 'you can never count out the Oilers with McDavid and Draisaitl tier' than this is one of the top 3 teams in the league tier. IMO

Was mainly thinking this year, but 3 years is probably their window.

I don't love everything about their team but McDavid is a cheat code. And I think their additions this off-season will help with their even strength scoring.

Question is if the blueline and goaltending is good enough.

Who would be the better favorites? Florida, Avalanche, Dallas all in the mix. If Markstrom delivers NJD could be a threat. But to me Edmonton and Florida are probably the two at the top of the list.