[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The draft requires a deadline. Plain and simple.

Discussion about the age of a player only requires sensibility. When you find yourself claiming that it's his 29 year old year, when he is 30 for more than 75 of the 82 games, plus the playoffs, then it's time to realize that you are talking with your heart and not your head.

I am literally trying to tell you that is not how contracts are negotiated.

Teams don't say he is 30 years old for more than 75 out of the 82 games plus the playoffs so he is a 30 years old.

It goes off DAY ONE age. Slice it up however you want. That's what is used for contract negotiations + Draft Year.

[dino7c]

He is 30+ for 99.9% of the contract

Dont be a moron, nobody cares that he is 29 for the preseason and 5 games of year. Whats this 20 3 paragraph posts about how great the Oilers are?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I am literally trying to tell you that is not how contracts are negotiated.

Teams don't say he is 30 years old for more than 75 out of the 82 games plus the playoffs so he is a 30 years old.

It goes off DAY ONE age. Slice it up however you want. That's what is used for contract negotiations + Draft Year.

Labels are labels, but intelligent people can understand reality as opposed to a label. Do you actually believe that intelligent people who are negotiating a contract of more than $100M think that he will be 29 in year one of the contract?

[InternationalVillager]

This is why a majority of the population struggle with the fine print of contracts because they lack the ability to distinguish and compartmentalize data points that from an initial glance look to be the same but upon closer inspection, have material impacts to calculations.

Draisaitl's agent negotiated a contract with the team where his first season begins when he is at Age 29.9 years old and his last season begins when he is at Age 36.9 years old.

The fact that he is not born in January instead of October is not held against him because it was not held against him when he was Drafted.

When he was Drafted, that started the ticking clock on his years of service which is taken account into as well. He will have 11 years of service accrued with his team after his current contract is up. His next contract will take him from Year 12 - 19.

When his ELC was signed, he began that season at 18.9 years old. It is still considered to be his AGE 18 season for comparison purposes.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Labels are labels, but intelligent people can understand reality as opposed to a label. Do you actually believe that intelligent people who are negotiating a contract of more than $100M think that he will be 29 in year one of the contract?

Yes. Because that is how contracts are negotiated.

There's literally the equivalent in the NHL of Labour laws for this ####.

It's like I'm giving a masterclass in terms of contracts in this thread for free.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

So pay him for past performance? Bold.

Jonathan Toews signs his huge contract in 2015 at the age of 27 on the heels of their last cup. Over that contract, the Blackhawks only made the playoffs 3 times and never won a playoff series again while he was there.

Chicago won the SC after he signed the contract. If they didn't sign him, do they trade him and forgo that SC?

[dino7c]

This is why people struggle with common sense

He is 30 two weeks into the season this contract starts...for the purposes of this debate he is 30+ for all of this contract other than 5 games. I know Oiler fans struggle with common sense.

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

When his ELC was signed, he began that season at 18.9 years old. It is still considered to be his AGE 18 season for comparison purposes.

No it isn't. He was drafted in his "AGE 18" season. His first year in the Oilers' organization was his age 19 season.

That's why Honzek is allowed to play in the AHL next season despite the fact that he's currently 19. This upcoming season is considered his 20 year old season despite the fact that he doesn't turn 20 until November.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

No it isn't. He was drafted in his "AGE 18" season. His first year in the Oilers' organization was his age 19 season.

That's why Honzek is allowed to play in the AHL next season despite the fact that he's currently 19. This upcoming season is considered his 20 year old season despite the fact that he doesn't turn 20 until November.

This AHL requirement is irrelevant for the discussion of contracts. That is its own separate addendum.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

This is why a majority of the population struggle with the fine print of contracts because they lack the ability to distinguish and compartmentalize data points that from an initial glance look to be the same but upon closer inspection, have material impacts to calculations.

Draisaitl's agent negotiated a contract with the team where his first season begins when he is at Age 29.9 years old and his last season begins when he is at Age 36.9 years old.

The fact that he is not born in January instead of October is not held against him because it was not held against him when he was Drafted.

When he was Drafted, that started the ticking clock on his years of service which is taken account into as well. He will have 11 years of service accrued with his team after his current contract is up. His next contract will take him from Year 12 - 19.

When his ELC was signed, he began that season at 18.9 years old. It is still considered to be his AGE 18 season for comparison purposes.

LOL. Dude, just stop.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Labels are labels, but intelligent people can understand reality as opposed to a label. Do you actually believe that intelligent people who are negotiating a contract of more than $100M think that he will be 29 in year one of the contract?

He is crossing the line from Oiler fan to Oiler troll now

He is in his 30s for all but 5 games of the contract. Its a fact and not up for debate. When people start using technicalities to help their cause its not going well for them.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He is crossing the line from Oiler fan to Oiler troll now

I think he's giving a masterclass in being an Oiler troll!

[SuperMatt18]

This actually made me curious of the impact McDavid has had on Draisaitl / RNH / Hyman's production the last couple seasons at 5v5.

The PP is tough to break apart who is the driver, and really they have no reason to break up the RNH/Hyman/Draisaitl/McDavid/Bouchard PP any time soon.

But at 5v5 it's a bit easier.

RNH:
21-22: 6.6%, 3.32 GF/60 with, 2.74 GF/60 without
22-23: 29.0%, 3.79 GF/60 with, 3.32 GF/60 without
23-24: 49%, 4.06 GF/60 with, 2.51 GF/60 without

Hyman:
21-22 44%, 2.91 GF/60 with, 2.29 GF/60 without
22-23: 64%, 4.49 GF/60 with, 2.85 GF/60 without
23-24: 75%, 4.96 GF/60 with, 2.67 GF/60 without

Draisaitl:

21-22: 22.8% 3.49 GF/60 with, 3.02 GF/60 w/o
22-23: 36.6% 4.09 GF/60 with, 3.15 GF/60 w/o
23-24: 58.9% 4.89 GF/60 with, 2.89 GF/60 w/o

These are McDavid's 3 most common linemates over the past 3 seasons at 5v5. With McDavid they all average 4.00 GF/60, without McDavid they average 2.83 GF/60. A lift of 1.17 GF/60 or 42%.

For McDavid's linemates they generally get a point on 64% of the goals that are scored when they are on the ice.

So if you are getting 1.17 GF/60 more with McDavid then if you were to play 100% of mintues with him (1200 minutes), then you'd be getting about 15 more even strength minutes per season with him. If you play half of the time with him it would be 7 ES points.

Which maybe at first glance doesn't seem like a ton, but the league leaders generally have around 70 ES points, so an extra 7-15 is actually pretty substantial.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I am literally trying to tell you that is not how contracts are negotiated.

Teams don't say he is 30 years old for more than 75 out of the 82 games plus the playoffs so he is a 30 years old.

It goes off DAY ONE age. Slice it up however you want. That's what is used for contract negotiations + Draft Year.

I doubt Draisaitl's age is listed anywhere in his contract. The contract will say it covers the time period for the NHL calendar starting July 1 2025 - June 30 2033.

His age isn't likely listed anywhere in a contract.

Also nobody here really gives a crap about the "contract age" what matters is the age is will be for the majority of that season which is 30 years old.

It's the same thing with Rasmus Andersson, when most Flames fans have been talking about his next contract we aren't saying it starts when he's 29. We are saying he will be 30 when it starts because he will turn 30 on October 27th of that first season of his new deal.

If Craig Conroy is negotiating that contract with Andersson and saying "Oh yeah this is a great deal because we are covering your 29-36 year old seasons" then he would be an idiot.

If the player's birthday is in March then you'd have a point, but when it's October like this then it's foolish to look at it any other way.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You are acting like he is 35 next year.

Year 1 - Age 29
Year 2 - Age 30
Year 3 - Age 31
Year 4 - Age 32
Year 5 - Age 33

If McDavid is still on the team, Draisaitl is putting up 100+ points seasons for these years.

.

I'll choose a single source of info for consistency. yes we can quibble forever


anyways quant hockey has Drai's last season as age 28. He's 106 points in an impressive 16th highest ever for a 28 yo (coincidentally behind Gaudreau and Huberdeau's 2022 seasons but I digress- clearly his track record of 100 point seasons prior is better than those guys)


so by this site (I know you disagree but I'm trying to be consistent here) he will be 30 in year one of the contract


number of players in history who have scored 100 points in each of their 30-34 year old seasons equals zero. number of players who did it 4 times equals one (Gretzky). number of additional players who did it 3 times equals zero


I understand why the Oilers made the deal, and even why Oiler fans are happy with it. I also think its business as usual for the Oilers for the next number of years- top heavy, always a threat given elite high end talent but balance issues, but at some point surely we must all agree all good things will come to an end. of course he will (barring injuries) remain a useful top 3-6 forward for all to most of the contract- that I also agree with. just not elite

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I doubt Draisaitl's age is listed anywhere in his contract. The contract will say it covers the time period for the NHL calendar starting July 1 2025 - June 30 2033.

His age isn't likely listed anywhere in a contract.

Also nobody here really gives a crap about the "contract age" what matters is the age is will be for the majority of that season which is 30 years old.

It's the same thing with Rasmus Andersson, when most Flames fans have been talking about his next contract we aren't saying it starts when he's 29. We are saying he will be 30 when it starts because he will turn 30 on October 27th of that first season of his new deal.

If Craig Conroy is negotiating that contract with Andersson and saying "Oh yeah this is a great deal because we are covering your 29-36 year old seasons" then he would be an idiot.

If the player's birthday is in March then you'd have a point, but when it's October like this then it's foolish to look at it any other way.

Yeah generally the people negotiating deals for a hundred million dollars are smart enough to understand that some things are whole numbers and some thing (like age) can be expressed as real numbers/decimals (eg 29.9 years), and that the fractional values can matter.

Maybe not the people negotiating for the oilers though...

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

This actually made me curious of the impact McDavid has had on Draisaitl / RNH / Hyman's production the last couple seasons at 5v5.

The PP is tough to break apart who is the driver, and really they have no reason to break up the RNH/Hyman/Draisaitl/McDavid/Bouchard PP any time soon.

But at 5v5 it's a bit easier.

RNH:
21-22: 6.6%, 3.32 GF/60 with, 2.74 GF/60 without
22-23: 29.0%, 3.79 GF/60 with, 3.32 GF/60 without
23-24: 49%, 4.06 GF/60 with, 2.51 GF/60 without

Hyman:
21-22 44%, 2.91 GF/60 with, 2.29 GF/60 without
22-23: 64%, 4.49 GF/60 with, 2.85 GF/60 without
23-24: 75%, 4.96 GF/60 with, 2.67 GF/60 without

Draisaitl:

21-22: 22.8% 3.49 GF/60 with, 3.02 GF/60 w/o
22-23: 36.6% 4.09 GF/60 with, 3.15 GF/60 w/o
23-24: 58.9% 4.89 GF/60 with, 2.89 GF/60 w/o

These are McDavid's 3 most common linemates over the past 3 seasons at 5v5. With McDavid they all average 4.00 GF/60, without McDavid they average 2.83 GF/60. A lift of 1.17 GF/60 or 42%.

For McDavid's linemates they generally get a point on 64% of the goals that are scored when they are on the ice.

So if you are getting 1.17 GF/60 more with McDavid then if you were to play 100% of mintues with him (1200 minutes), then you'd be getting about 15 more even strength minutes per season with him. If you play half of the time with him it would be 7 ES points.

Which maybe at first glance doesn't seem like a ton, but the league leaders generally have around 70 ES points, so an extra 7-15 is actually pretty substantial.

Just looking at Draisaitl, his numbers average 4.16 GF/60 with McDavid, and 3.02 GF/60 without. This begs the question, what does he look like, on another team?

Of course, we can't simply take the 'without' numbers and say that is what he would be, but for argument's sake, let's do it anyway!

He has played 4132.25 EV minutes in the last 3 years. He has been on the ice for 276 EV goals over that time. If we apply the 'without' averages, he would have been on the ice for 208 goals for. That is 23 fewer points per year.

As I said, not really a fair comparison, but the point remains - he probably isn't a $14M player on his own.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by looooob

I'll choose a single source of info for consistency. yes we can quibble forever


anyways quant hockey has Drai's last season as age 28. He's 106 points in an impressive 16th highest ever for a 28 yo (coincidentally behind Gaudreau and Huberdeau's 2022 seasons but I digress- clearly his track record of 100 point seasons prior is better than those guys)


so by this site (I know you disagree but I'm trying to be consistent here) he will be 30 in year one of the contract


number of players in history who have scored 100 points in each of their 30-34 year old seasons equals zero. number of players who did it 4 times equals one (Gretzky). number of additional players who did it 3 times equals zero


I understand why the Oilers made the deal, and even why Oiler fans are happy with it. I also think its business as usual for the Oilers for the next number of years- top heavy, always a threat given elite high end talent but balance issues, but at some point surely we must all agree all good things will come to an end. of course he will (barring injuries) remain a useful top 3-6 forward for all to most of the contract- that I also agree with. just not elite

Wait - I just looked at Gretzky, and he only did it three times - and that's if you include the year he turned 30 halfway through. Beyond that year (i.e. every year where he started the season as a 30-something) he hit 100 points twice.

[kevman]

This contract is a win for Draistaitl. He was not going to get similar money (over 7 years) by waiting a year. Factor in the risk of injury or a decline year hurting his value further and it's an even better signing now.
This contract is a win for the Oilers. They needed to lock up their guy, both for the fans and for the simple reason that without their two stars that team is a lottery team again.

That said, this doesn't feel like a loss for Flames fans. (I said not a loss because the obvious win would have been losing him for nothing.) The Oilers are aging without prospects and will be in a cap situation that will prevent them from getting deeper in the future. They're also a slow start (2023/24 anyone?) away from the fans turning on their newly minted $14 million dollar guy and a few years away from chasing 9th or worst before they re-enter the lottery discussion. Paying a guy $5.5 million more per year, or the equivalent of a middle six player, doesn't make it easier to ice a deeper team in the future. As a Flames fan I'm not upset by this and I can't wait to see what kind of "discount" McDavid takes when he signs for league max.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Wait - I just looked at Gretzky, and he only did it three times - and that's if you include the year he turned 30 halfway through. Beyond that year (i.e. every year where he started the season as a 30-something) he hit 100 points twice.

yeah my bad, I had too many things open at once- it is 3 times by the same metric I'm applying to everyone. that is the seasons quant hockey is calling his 30, 32 and 34 year old seasons. sorry about the error