[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

He has numbers in the realm of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid so he's going to get paid in that realm as a % of cap.

Also- why people are glossing over the fact that he VASTLY outperformed his last $8.5M AAV contract so obviously he is recouping some of that from his employer.

Draisaitl is a beast of a player. Any team would be lucky to have him.

So pay him for past performance? Bold.

Jonathan Toews signs his huge contract in 2015 at the age of 27 on the heels of their last cup. Over that contract, the Blackhawks only made the playoffs 3 times and never won a playoff series again while he was there.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

He has numbers in the realm of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid so he's going to get paid in that realm as a % of cap.

Difference is all those other players are the top guy on their team, Drai isn't. He gets a boost in production because of McDavid unlike nobody else in the league.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

He has numbers in the realm of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid so he's going to get paid in that realm as a % of cap.

Also- why people are glossing over the fact that he VASTLY outperformed his last $8.5M AAV contract so obviously he is recouping some of that from his employer.

Draisaitl is a beast of a player. Any team would be lucky to have him.

So Huberdeau's contract is good because he only made $5.9M for a lot of high quality years, right?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

He has numbers in the realm of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid so he's going to get paid in that realm as a % of cap.

Also- why people are glossing over the fact that he VASTLY outperformed his last $8.5M AAV contract so obviously he is recouping some of that from his employer.

Draisaitl is a beast of a player. Any team would be lucky to have him.

No one is debating, or 'glossing over' that. In fact, it is basically the gist of the argument: Draisaitl is getting paid for (mostly) past performance.

And that is a very different sentiment than the drivel that is coming out of Edmonton, claiming that it is a discount, and a 'testament to the special culture', etc.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

There is one other thing that no one has mentioned.

This is a business. McDavid and Draisaitl sell tickets, jerseys, merchandise, ad revenue, tv deals etc.

The franchise is not going to let their cash cows go over a few million dollars.

Stanley Cup or not. These two have inflated the value of the Oilers for ownership and brought in a #### ton of money.

Draisaitl is worth way more than $14M per year in enterprise value.

There is a business argument here, for sure.

But is Draisaitl the cash cow, or is McDavid? If they traded Draisaitl and re-signed McDavid, with a fresh injection of youth from the Draisaitl trade, would the enterprise value be diminished? I strongly doubt it.

In fact, it would likely be increased, because it would extend the viable window for McDavid.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So Huberdeau's contract is good because he only made $5.9M for a lot of high quality years, right?

Florida punted Huberdeau and he has shown he is clearly no Draisaitl. He's a winger anyway. Not even a great comparison.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No one is debating, or 'glossing over' that. In fact, it is basically the gist of the argument: Draisaitl is getting paid for (mostly) past performance.

And that is a very different sentiment than the drivel that is coming out of Edmonton, claiming that it is a discount, and a 'testament to the special culture', etc.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is a business argument here, for sure.

But is Draisaitl the cash cow, or is McDavid? If they traded Draisaitl and re-signed McDavid, with a fresh injection of youth from the Draisaitl trade, would the enterprise value be diminished? I strongly doubt it.

In fact, it would likely be increased, because it would extend the viable window for McDavid.

You are acting like he is 35 next year.

Year 1 - Age 29
Year 2 - Age 30
Year 3 - Age 31
Year 4 - Age 32
Year 5 - Age 33

If McDavid is still on the team, Draisaitl is putting up 100+ points seasons for these years.

By the end of Year 5, the salary cap might be in the $100-$110M range.

Year 6 - Year 8

you're looking at a salary cap as % of cap space around 13%.

If he is even a 80-90 point player these years, this contract is worth it.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Ryan Rishob thinks it’s a reasonable deal. What a loser. How does TSN employee these hacks.

It is a reasonable deal, from the standpoint of what does it cost today to sign a UFA who has been statistically the 2nd best scoring forward in the league for a couple years now.
But it's not any kind of hometown discount. Not even a single $ worth. I even speculated a few weeks ago that a discount would be a total of $111, so aav was under 14, but the Oilers didn't even get that. That is what you have to pay, whether actually worth it of not. Where Rishaug is a moron is say he left half a million on the table.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You are acting like he is 35 next year.

Year 1 - Age 29
Year 2 - Age 30
Year 3 - Age 31
Year 4 - Age 32
Year 5 - Age 33

If McDavid is still on the team, Draisaitl is putting up 100+ points seasons for these years.

By the end of Year 5, the salary cap might be in the $100-$110M range.

Year 6 - Year 8

you're looking at a salary cap as % of cap space around 13%.

If he is even a 80-90 point player these years, this contract is worth it.

You think there's a chance he's going to be a 90 point player at 38 years old? I'll take that bet.

Just call it like it is: They paid to keep him to keep their contender window open for a few more years. They're not going to be a contender in 6 or 8 years and this contract will be an anchor. But worry about that later...if you think you're a contender (and the Oilers are) you pay up now and worry about the anchors down the road. They're not paying him to be a top point getter at 35 or 36 or 38. He won't be.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

It is a reasonable deal, from the standpoint of what does it cost today to sign a UFA who has been statistically the 2nd best scoring forward in the league for a couple years now.
But it's not any kind of hometown discount. Not even a single $ worth. I even speculated a few weeks ago that a discount would be a total of $111, so aav was under 14, but the Oilers didn't even get that. That is what you have to pay, whether actually worth it of not. Where Rishaug is a moron is say he left half a million on the table.

Not quite right.

Draisaitl has been statistically the 2nd best scoring forward in the league for the last NINE seasons or since McDavid came in the league (although 4th in pts/game - that goes McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon then Draisaitl).

McDavid - 982
Draisaitl - 841
Mackinnon - 798
Kucherov - 790
Panarin - 781
Crosby - 743
Kane - 727
Marchand - 701
Pastrnak - 700
Gaudreau - 678
Ovechkin - 655
Barkov - 651
Matthews - 649

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

You think there's a chance he's going to be a 90 point player at 38 years old? I'll take that bet.

This contract ends with his age 36 season where he will be age 37 at the end of the year.

Also why do the last 1-2 years of UFA contract extensions even matter. That's SO FAR down the line that from a salary cap/team window perspective, you cannot even reasonable project out that far.

BTW Crosby just dropped 94 pts at that age with no McDavid on his team.

Joe Thornton's last point per game 82 point season was at age 37.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You are acting like he is 35 next year.

Year 1 - Age 29
Year 2 - Age 30
Year 3 - Age 31
Year 4 - Age 32
Year 5 - Age 33

If McDavid is still on the team, Draisaitl is putting up 100+ points seasons for these years.

By the end of Year 5, the salary cap might be in the $100-$110M range.

Year 6 - Year 8

you're looking at a salary cap as % of cap space around 13%.

If he is even a 80-90 point player these years, this contract is worth it.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

This contract ends with his age 36 season where he will be age 37 at the end of the year.

If you're going to throw out facts, at least try to be accurate (and not disingenuous)

His birthday is in October, so no, he will not be 29 in year 1 of the contract, he will be 30 for all but maybe 5 of the games.

And no, the contract doesn't end 'with his age 36 season where he will be 37 at the end of the year' he will be 37 for more than 90% of the year.

This contract is for his 30-37 years, not 29-36

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You are acting like he is 35 next year.

Year 1 - Age 29
Year 2 - Age 30
Year 3 - Age 31
Year 4 - Age 32
Year 5 - Age 33

Bit of a technicality but he's 1 year older in reality than what you have here. His Birthday is October 27th.

So in Year 1 he turns 30 about 5 games into the season, and will be 30 for the majority of the season.

So it's more like the contract covers his 30-37 year old seasons than his 29-36 year old seasons.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Not quite right.

Draisaitl has been statistically the 2nd best scoring forward in the league for the last NINE seasons or since McDavid came in the league (although 4th in pts/game - that goes McDavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon then Draisaitl).

McDavid - 982
Draisaitl - 841
Mackinnon - 798
Kucherov - 790
Panarin - 781
Crosby - 743
Kane - 727
Marchand - 701
Pastrnak - 700
Gaudreau - 678
Ovechkin - 655
Barkov - 651
Matthews - 649

It's tough to say how much of that is because the guy who is number 1 though, and even tougher when his own teammate/linemate has 140 more points than him in that time.

Draisaitl is great...but what % of his production is inflated by playing with 97. Is it 20%, is it 30%?

Zach Hyman went from being a 20 goal and 50 point guy before McDavid was his primary linemate...to a 45 goal and 82 point guy these last two seasons with McDavid and PP1 time. That's a 100% lift on goals, and a 65% lift in points.

I doubt Draisaitl would be that drastic but I feel like he goes from being a 120 point guy with 97 to probably a 90-100 point guy without him.

I like looking at Draisaitl/Hyman/McDavid with or without you's over their 3 years as Oilers.

McDavid+Draisatil+Hyman: 627 Minutes - 69.5% GF / 62.4% xGF
Draisaitl+Hyman without 97: 715 Minutes - 42.7% GF / 49.9% xGF
Hyman+McDavid without 29: 1560 Minutes - 60.5% GF / 61.3% xGF

Take McDavid away from those two and they go from being the best line in the league to terrible.

In the end they had to give him the money, but they are paying a premium to keep 97 and 29 together because 97 wants to keep 29, and because 29's stats are inflated by 20-30% from playing so much with 97 (IMO).

[Paulie Walnuts]

You say you are not an Oiler fan, but you have fought very hard to defend this contract and player, the team and even called Savoie elite.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

It is a reasonable deal, from the standpoint of what does it cost today to sign a UFA who has been statistically the 2nd best scoring forward in the league for a couple years now.
But it's not any kind of hometown discount. Not even a single $ worth. I even speculated a few weeks ago that a discount would be a total of $111, so aav was under 14, but the Oilers didn't even get that. That is what you have to pay, whether actually worth it of not. Where Rishaug is a moron is say he left half a million on the table.

Yeah, it’s not any kind of discount, but they paid market price for a top player who will likely continue to be a top player for the next 5 years and first 4 years of the deal, along with McDavid who likely has another 5-7 years of top performance left in him.

Personally, I think the debate around giving him max term is pointless. They had to. They were never getting close to the value they’d be giving up over the next 5 years through a trade, and certainly not by just letting him walk. Generally I agree with the sentiment that the last few years don’t really matter (because yes, the cap will go up, and by year 6 they’re likely looking at a rebuild anyway so his contract does not matter). Where this kind of uniquely screws the Oilers is actually in the first few years where the cap isn’t going up fast enough and McDavid is looking at a huge increase as well. This would be OK if they were in a good position, but they’re starting from an absolutely dismal cap situation as it stands today, which is only going to get worse next year and significantly worse the year after.

If the Flames had signed Gaudreau and Tkachuk to big money, max term deals they would have been fine because they had a solid team around them, something resembling a pipeline, and cap flexibility with the way certain contracts were set to expire. The Oilers basically only have this year before their depth becomes even more depleted to manage the further step into cap hell they’re taking.

[InternationalVillager]

Season age is Day 1 Age.

Yes - he's October 27 - that's past the "Day 1 Age" that gets considered in contract calculations.

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You say you are not an Oiler fan, but you have fought very hard to defend this contract and player, the team and even called Savoie elite.

Oh hey. It's you again.

Defend the contract? It's a fair market value contract. Even Bingo's said about the same thing.

Defend the player? He's one of the top players in the league for the last 9 years.

It's the takes in here that this is a laughable contract and it's a travesty for that organization that I'm rebutting against. When it's all said and done, that organization would have got to watch McDavid and Draisaitl for roughly 20 years. It's not just about stanley cups.

I wish over the next few years, Calgary can draft their own McDavid and Draisaitl. Or their own Matthews and Marner.

You know what it does? It makes going to watch hockey games on a random January cold night when it's -40 on a Tuesday night a whole lot more exciting.

[dino7c]

Lol he turns 30 two weeks into the first season of the contract...dude listen to you

You ####ing love the Oilers. You are making Weitz blush with your blue and orange glasses

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Yeah, it’s not any kind of discount, but they paid market price for a top player who will likely continue to be a top player for the next 5 years and first 4 years of the deal, along with McDavid who likely has another 5-7 years of top performance left in him.

Personally, I think the debate around giving him max term is pointless. They had to. They were never getting close to the value they’d be giving up over the next 5 years through a trade, and certainly not by just letting him walk. Generally I agree with the sentiment that the last few years don’t really matter (because yes, the cap will go up, and by year 6 they’re likely looking at a rebuild anyway so his contract does not matter). Where this kind of uniquely screws the Oilers is actually in the first few years where the cap isn’t going up fast enough and McDavid is looking at a huge increase as well. This would be OK if they were in a good position, but they’re starting from an absolutely dismal cap situation as it stands today, which is only going to get worse next year and significantly worse the year after.

If the Flames had signed Gaudreau and Tkachuk to big money, max term deals they would have been fine because they had a solid team around them, something resembling a pipeline, and cap flexibility with the way certain contracts were set to expire. The Oilers basically only have this year before their depth becomes even more depleted to manage the further step into cap hell they’re taking.

It's too bold to suggest that Drysaddle and McDavid are going to produce like they are for the next 5-7 years. There are way more miles on those frames than if they were playing for a sane, rational organization. Look at some of the greats across the league - Lemieux, Gretzky, Crosby, Malkin all had their final seasons of pure offensive dominance ~32 years old and these guys weren't ridden into the ground nearly as much.

I'm not saying these players didn't continue to produce after that point, but they had injury issues limiting their production, and just clearly starting losing a step leading to reduced production from the freakish levels earlier in their careers.

The Oilers are going to be in big trouble in 3 years when the regression inevitably hits and they have nothing else to fall back on or any cap room to pivot. Even 75-90 point production from two forwards taking in a combined ~30M AAV will be absolutely crippling to a team with essentially no pipeline and too many replacement level players.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Lol he turns 30 two weeks into the first season of the contract...dude listen to you

You ####ing love the Oilers

So for the NHL Draft - why is there a cutoff?

I think it's September 15.

So why can't players born on September 16 be drafted along with the players born on September 15?

It's the same thing --- right?

It's not the same thing. The player born on September 16 will always be compared against his own draft class. That player will just happen to be the oldest in that draft class.

There is always a range in analytics. That is why "Day 1 Age" was even implemented/created. It may not matter to you but it matters to the agents negotiating contracts for their clients.

Draisaitl was a 2014 draft pick. He is not all of a sudden going to be considered a 2013 draft pick - "Draft + X Years" just because he is born on October 27. Another term used is "years of service".

I am imparting a lot of free knowledge to you about how things work on the financial side.

Ok pumpkin.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

So for the NHL Draft - why is there a cutoff?

I think it's September 15.

So why can't players born on September 16 be drafted along with the players born on September 15?

It's the same thing --- right?

It's not the same thing. The player born on September 16 will always be compared against his own draft class. That player will just happen to be the oldest in that draft class.

There is always a range in analytics. That is why "Day 1 Age" was even implemented/created. It may not matter to you but it matters to the agents negotiating contracts for their clients.

Draisaitl was a 2014 draft pick. He is not all of a sudden going to be considered a 2013 draft pick - "Draft + X Years" just because he is born on October 27. Another term used is "years of service".

I am imparting a lot of free knowledge to you about how things work on the financial side.

Ok pumpkin.

The draft requires a deadline. Plain and simple.

Discussion about the age of a player only requires sensibility. When you find yourself claiming that it's his 29 year old year, when he is 30 for more than 75 of the 82 games, plus the playoffs, then it's time to realize that you are talking with your heart and not your head.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Season age is Day 1 Age.

Yes - he's October 27 - that's past the "Day 1 Age" that gets considered in contract calculations.



Oh hey. It's you again.

Defend the contract? It's a fair market value contract. Even Bingo's said about the same thing.

Defend the player? He's one of the top players in the league for the last 9 years.

It's the takes in here that this is a laughable contract and it's a travesty for that organization that I'm rebutting against. When it's all said and done, that organization would have got to watch McDavid and Draisaitl for roughly 20 years. It's not just about stanley cups.

I wish over the next few years, Calgary can draft their own McDavid and Draisaitl. Or their own Matthews and Marner.

You know what it does? It makes going to watch hockey games on a random January cold night when it's -40 on a Tuesday night a whole lot more exciting.

Except you're not - you're making silly claims about his age and that Savoie is elite, etc