COVID-19 Vaccine Talk

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Julio

Not quite apples to apples, but here are some numbers from Sask, which has about 1/4 the population of Alberta:

Long-term care and personal care home residents and staff.
Total number estimate – 30,584
Health care workers in emergency departments, intensive care units, COVID-19 wards and COVID testing and assessment staff.
Total number estimate – 10,000-15,000
Residents 80 years and older in all communities; followed by 79-75, and 74-70 in community as supplies allow.
Total number estimate for each age range:
80+ – 51,302
79-75 – 32,474
74-70 – 47,343

Alberta will have less than straight per capita comparisons since we are such a young province.

Alberta has about 140k over 80 compared to 51 in Saskatchewan. So amusing that old people are a rough analog for LTC staff and residents 3 might be a good multiple rather than 4 or 4.5.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101

As an aside when I was looking at BC Covid deaths vs cases and Alberta deaths vs cases the discrepancy appears to be mostly made up by demographics. BC being an old province so ends up with a higher death per case rate. This allows Alberta to have higher case rates per capita for given levels of death / ICU / Hospitalizations.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GGG

Alberta will have less than straight per capita comparisons since we are such a young province.

Alberta has about 140k over 80 compared to 51 in Saskatchewan. So amusing that old people are a rough analog for LTC staff and residents 3 might be a good multiple rather than 4 or 4.5.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101

As an aside when I was looking at BC Covid deaths vs cases and Alberta deaths vs cases the discrepancy appears to be mostly made up by demographics. BC being an old province so ends up with a higher death per case rate. This allows Alberta to have higher case rates per capita for given levels of death / ICU / Hospitalizations.

BC's care homes got hit very hard initially. A lot of care home staff came back from Iran/Asia with the virus and straight into the care homes. It skewed their death numbers considerably.

[Fuzz]

The toggle is in the top left where it says "people". It's not on a per province breakdown, but I suspect they will get that soon. This just showed up a few days ago.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I dont think they could give someone the oxford vaccine as it hasn't been approved.

The trial was in and the vaccine has been approved for use in the UK.

And being a participant in the trial doesn't get you preferential treatment as vaccine admin controlled by Dept of Health.

[Julio]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

The toggle is in the top left where it says "people". It's not on a per province breakdown, but I suspect they will get that soon. This just showed up a few days ago.

Covid tracker just added a 'fully vaccinated' line on their grid. Quebec, Alberta, BC and PEI (plus the territories) are marked as N/A.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Even if they start showing up in April, it will go a long way to help finish off some of the remote areas. Especially being a single dose makes it easier. Logistically it just seems easier to manage Pfizer in the bigger city centers.

Even April might be optimistic at this point. According to this article, Johnson & Johnson is about 2 months behind where they thought they'd be in terms of production:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/13/h...n-johnson.html

They mention "catching up" to meet the US's delivery schedule of 60M doses by the end of April, which might mean diverting doses from non-US customers to the US. The good news for Canada is, not many jurisdictions countries have significant outstanding orders with J&J. It's basically just the US, EU, UK, Canada, and then doses for COVAX.

[Jordan!]

I'll be receiving dose 1 of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow as an essential worker at the AZ Cards stadium parking lot.

Has anyone else received as well? Any side effects on your end?

[Jiri Hrdina]

I'm really happy to hear you're getting it Jordan. But boy that seems like a liberal definition of "essential worker".

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

I'll be receiving dose 1 of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow as an essential worker at the AZ Cards stadium parking lot.

Has anyone else received as well? Any side effects on your end?

Wife got it last week and, as another poster mentioned, only side effect was a little sore arm and maybe some mild fatigue.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

be prepared to see many, many more stories like this one:

Fraser Health directors, staff accused of jumping COVID-19 vaccine queue in B.C.

The executive director overseeing the clinic then reached out to other directors in the Fraser Health region to offer up those extra doses.

A director at Peace Arch Hospital in Surrey, whose colleagues tell Global News is not involved in day-to-day direct patient care, ultimately received one of those doses. That director’s son and son-in-law, who work at the hospital as a porter and a screener, respectively, also received doses before many front-line workers did.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7572603/c...vaccine-queue/

It is a bit sensationalist in that they jumped the line to get left over doses but the article isn't clear what would have happened to them otherwise. I'm assuming there were people who were front line who could have used them instead.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

I'll be receiving dose 1 of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow as an essential worker at the AZ Cards stadium parking lot.

Has anyone else received as well? Any side effects on your end?

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I'm really happy to hear you're getting it Jordan. But boy that seems like a liberal definition of "essential worker".

I read that as the location Jordan is receiving the vaccine, not their vocation. Could be totally off the mark on that one though.

[Jiri Hrdina]

hahaha yes. My bad.

[shogged]

Vaccinated! Feeling very fortunate right now.



The experience was easy, it was a small volume shot compared to the flu vaccine. Normally with the flu shot I get a dead arm almost immediately that lasts for a day or two and feel like garbage. So far the covid vaccine feels much kinder on my body as I haven’t experienced any side effects at time of writing.

Hopefully if you are afforded the same opportunity I was, you can take advantage of it! Just wanted to share and advocate for something we’ve been waiting for since this all began.

[Sert]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

I'll be receiving dose 1 of the Pfizer vaccine tomorrow as an essential worker at the AZ Cards stadium parking lot.

Has anyone else received as well? Any side effects on your end?

With my first dose I didn't notice anything aside from some soreness in my arm. Got my second dose yesterday and have been feeling increasing chills/ whole body soreness and lethargy throughout the day. Some colleagues have felt even worse, others barely noticed anything.

[opendoor]

BC released their quarterly estimates for the number of expected doses of Pfizer and Moderna for 2021 today. Based on this, it does look like the federal government's promise to have enough for everyone by the end of September will happen even if no other vaccines get approved. That said, the Q2 numbers are a little bit underwhelming given the numbers that have been thrown around unofficially recently. It looks like 20M doses for those 2 vaccines in Q2 nationally; Minister Anand had mentioned 30-38M, but she must have been talking about from all the companies that are likely to be approved by Q2.

So it is important to remember that this only includes Pfizer + Moderna (and I'm not sure if it includes the 20M option for Pfizer that was exercised); anything from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, or Novavax would be in addition to these numbers. So for BC, they're expecting the following of those 2:

Dec-Mar: 800K (8% of the population by March)
Apr-Jun: 2.64M (34% of the population by June)
Jul-Sep: 6M (93% of the population by September)

As for the other ones, based on what other jurisdictions are expecting and what the federal government has said, Canada can probably reasonably expect about 30-40% of their confirmed orders from AstraZeneca and J&J to show up in Q2. So that equates to 6-8M AZ doses and 3-4M J&J doses, which would be enough to do 6-8M people. That would bump the Q2 number of inoculated by 15-20 percentage points (so 50-55% total by the end of June).

So worst case scenario with no AZ or J&J, we're probably looking at mortality being reduced to a minuscule amount by June or so (and reduced dramatically probably by April). With 80% uptake, 30% coverage would likely get everyone over 55 who wanted it in addition to all the front-line workers, and those groups cover about 97-98% of the total COVID deaths in Canada. If the other vaccines come through in the numbers mentioned above, that probably happens in May and we'd be looking at almost everyone over 35-40 having at least 1 shot by the end of June. But those numbers are just educated guesses; Anita Anand had mentioned 30-38M doses in Q2 total which would be higher than what I have here, but then Johnson & Johnson has come out talking about production delays so it might be lower. So not bad (roughly on par with or slightly ahead of the EU), but definitely behind the US and the UK.

[looooob]

Ahs had stated that all continuing care residents in the Calgary zone have had their first vaccine dose

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I'm really happy to hear you're getting it Jordan. But boy that seems like a liberal definition of "essential worker".

I work with some important people directly and have a one year old in preschool. I’ve been tested 6 times so far work work. Kiddo has been sick every few weeks. They just opened up the Cards stadium as a mass vaccine site. My employer was pushing to get it ASAP.

Edit. Just saw your reply. I do not work for the cards or any other sports team. Lol

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by looooob

Ahs had stated that all continuing care residents in the Calgary zone have had their first vaccine dose

That seems like a pretty big deal to me

[Huntingwhale]

Here in Poland the application/registration process begins tomorrow (15th Jan) for the general population to get vaccinated. The first round went to healthcare workers. Next up will be the elderly 80+ years of age, then 70 the week after, etc.

On January 15, we will open registration for people over 80 years old. Also from January 15, an application form for those who wish to get vaccinated will be available.

On January 22, registration for people over 70 begins," the official said on Wednesday, adding that 4-6 million people from these age groups will get vaccinated.

In addition, Dworczyk mentioned that as of Wednesday, nearly 338,000 vaccine shots were administered in Poland.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/p...m-1140205.html


Overall they have done a decent job here getting vaccines out, at least from what I have seen on the news. Apparently they are 4th overall in the EU.

Compared to Europe, it looks like Poland is the fourth country in terms of the number of vaccinations," Michal Dworczyk said.

From the group of over 4.5 million people, we will have vaccines for 2.3 million by the end of March," he said.

Dworczyk said that Poland is able to vaccinate some 3.7 million people per month. Poland's population counts just over 38 million.

During the first quarter, Poland expects to receive over 6 million doses of the vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna.

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article...d-so-far-19034

Hopefully this will be the start of putting a dent into the rates here. My company notified us before Christmas that when it's appropriate they would be coordinating with some of the health officials to coordinate something for our employees. Will probably be somewhere down the road and that's fine, but nice to finally see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by looooob

Ahs had stated that all continuing care residents in the Calgary zone have had their first vaccine dose

So 4-6 weeks and deaths per case should be cut in half.