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Old 01-13-2021, 11:32 AM   #41
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Skinner, Seabrook, maybe Bobrovsky soon.
I could see the Price contract becoming a big problem.

In 3 years, San Jose will have 5 players who are over 35 and are making 7+ million.

I don't think the Okposo, Ladd, Johansen, Eriksson and Neal contracts are quite on this level. Just because they're a bit less in term and cap hit.
Johansen's contract has been iffy but not terrible.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:38 AM   #42
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I think the way to look at these is the amount of dead cap created by the contract minus cost to replace with a UFA

So Lucic is probably worth 1mil per year replacement value for the next 3 years.
16.25 mil cap hit so in a non-buyout scenario he’s -13.25 million in value or with a buyout about -11 million

Then you look at a guy like Skinner who probably costs 4 million as a UFA to replace so 28 million in value. So a -35 million dollar value.

The Lucic contract at -4.25 million is probably just as damaging for the next few seasons as skinners -5 million.

On a season by season basis it’s one of the worst. It’s only saving grace is term.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:38 AM   #43
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To add another twist to this exercise, I also think it is important to consider the contract vs contention window for a team.


For instance, I don't think the Lucic deal ranks in the top 5 - maybe not even in the top 10 worst deals any longer due to the length, cap-hit, and usability of the player. However, I wonder where it ranks among teams who are in the 'win now' mode. If Lucic's cap hit wasn't on this team, they could have added something significant to their top 6, and probably had the wiggle room to have re-signed Brodie.



Doughty, Karlsson, Burns, Vlasic (yikes!), etc - they all have terrible deals, and it will only get worse. However, they are on rebuilding teams (for now - those are lengthy deals and you would think that their respective teams will be contending again at some point during their contracts).


I wonder which contracts around the league are crippling their organizations at the moment. Florida is wasting the prime years of some very good players, but they don't really seem to be a competing team. Although they are not a cap team, they have an internal budget and of course paying Bobrovsky 10 million a year is going to eat into that internal cap. Is he stopping them from competing? Maybe. If so, then he is the worst deal in the NHL.


I wonder which of the bad contracts around the NHL are hurting a team from competing the most, thus making it 'the worst deal'. I think Karlsson's deal will eventually be the undisputed worst deal in the NHL within a few seasons, as it seems he is slowing down (and has an injury history).
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:40 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stud_McCool View Post
I'm gonna throw Auston Matthews's contract in here because it's really, really high for buying only one UFA year. Correct me if I'm wrong.
While I agree Dubas should have been able to negotiate a more team friendly contract, Matthews shouldn't be anywhere near this list. He is one of the most valuable players in the league.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:40 AM   #45
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Does Rick Dipietro count? He was bought out, but he still makes $4,200 per day until 2027 and hasn't played since 2012, when he only played 3 games. The year before, he only paid 8. It's been 12 years since he played more than 26 games.


I agree, that Skinner one is probably the worst right now though, and everyone saw it coming.

Honestly, if Lucic can play a full season like he did in the post-season, his contract at least for this year won't be that bad.
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Old 01-13-2021, 11:55 AM   #46
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Lucic might have had the worst contact three years ago but at this point he's not even close—with just three years left, there are many deals that are worse.

I would say Drew Doughty's contract is awfully close to being the worst. $11 million for a guy who was flat-out awful last year.
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:10 PM   #47
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When I think of bad contracts I think it’s hard to beat Loui Eriksson or Bobrovsky. Lucic’s is bad but I don’t think it’s the worst contract in the league.
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:14 PM   #48
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I know it's nitpicking but we don't actually pay him $16.25M over the next 3 seasons - that's his cap hit. His actual pay is less than that, around $13M. I think Skinners actual pay is around $52M going by Puckpedia.

I guess I think of contract in terms of cap hit and actual dollars paid, I know if I was an owner that actual dollars paid would be a big factor - look at Ottawa's owner for an example of that sort of thinking.

Where would a players contract fall on the spectrum if you could add him to your team and his actual dollars were only say $1M per year but his cap hit was $7M for another 5 years as the previous team paid it all up front? I know it's looking at it from the far end of the spectrum and is unrealistic, but I'm just wondering how that sort of scenario would make people look at it.
If we are going to pick that nit, let's pick it completely.

CapFriendly says Lucic's cap hit to us is $5.25MM per year, so $15.75MM as the Oilers pay $750K.

Also, his actual salary is set off by the same 8%, I believe, so it is $3.68MM, $5.4MM, $3.68MM for these final three years, totaling $11.96MM in actual cash.

Also, to stang, I believe he can be waived to be moved to the taxi squad, he just has to agree to do so.

Point being: Not a good contract by ANY stretch, but not the worst in the league, now, in my opinion. Many listed on here are worse.
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:15 PM   #49
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In order to try to sound smart I tried to cheat and googled this question.

Article from Nov 2020, worse contract by team, not an overall ranking:

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...every-nhl-team

This guy did a top 15 ranking (June 2020) and says Marc-Édouard Vlasic has the worse NHL contract. Lucic isn't in his top 15:

https://jfresh.substack.com/p/projec...orst-contracts

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Old 01-13-2021, 12:18 PM   #50
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Ladd still has 3 years 5.5 million
Okposo 3 years 6 million
Eriksson 2 years 6 million

Those 3 are miles worse than Lucic
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:27 PM   #51
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I think the Eriksson contract can be bought out next year without much of a penalty.
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:32 PM   #52
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Surprised it took 3 pages before someone corrected Lucic's cap hit ($5.25M, not $5.75M).

$5.75M was James Neal but should be $6.5M with the $750k retained on Lucic
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:32 PM   #53
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I think Skinner is overpaid by about $3-4million AAV, while Lucic is overpaid by like $5 million. But at least they are both NHL players. I gotta go with Loui Erickson as worst contract.


Skinner is a guy who can score goals in the league, so is probably realistically a $5.5-6 million player. Quick maths: 29.38 goals/82 games

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Old 01-13-2021, 12:37 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albertGQ View Post
Surprised it took 3 pages before someone corrected Lucic's cap hit ($5.25M, not $5.75M).

$5.75M was James Neal but should be $6.5M with the $750k retained on Lucic
But the thread is about contracts, not cap hits.
And how come Lucic's is 500k less, but Neal's is 750k more? Where does the extra 250k come from?
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:42 PM   #55
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Lucic has become the deafult worst around the league but it's really not. There are a bunch of guys I wouldn't trade Lucic for
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:43 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz View Post
But the thread is about contracts, not cap hits.
And how come Lucic's is 500k less, but Neal's is 750k more? Where does the extra 250k come from?
Nowhere.

Lucic's deal was originally $6 million AAV. Edmonton retained $750k. Calgary is on the hook for $5.25. Edmonton is paying $5.75 million for Neal plus $750k for Lucic.
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Old 01-13-2021, 12:53 PM   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albertGQ View Post
Surprised it took 3 pages before someone corrected Lucic's cap hit ($5.25M, not $5.75M).

$5.75M was James Neal but should be $6.5M with the $750k retained on Lucic
Yup, mad bad. Should have said $5.25M.
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Old 01-13-2021, 01:48 PM   #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz View Post
But the thread is about contracts, not cap hits.
And how come Lucic's is 500k less, but Neal's is 750k more? Where does the extra 250k come from?
Contracts include cap hits, actual cash, NMC and NTC provisions, bonuses, and more, all working together.

The original person put in $5.75MM, when they should have put in $5.25MM.
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Old 01-13-2021, 01:57 PM   #59
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Expansion proof
Buyout proof
Grossly overpaid for his present state of game
We don't know that it is expansion proof as he could still agree to waive his NMC for the expansion draft, so this point isn't 100% accurate.

He can still be bought out, there just isn't that much cap savings, though if the Flames needed to they could buy him out and save just under $2m on the cap next season. So again while there might not be much benefit Lucic's contract is not buyout proof.
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Old 01-13-2021, 02:02 PM   #60
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Does Rick Dipietro count? He was bought out, but he still makes $4,200 per day until 2027 and hasn't played since 2012, when he only played 3 games. The year before, he only paid 8. It's been 12 years since he played more than 26 games.


I agree, that Skinner one is probably the worst right now though, and everyone saw it coming.

Honestly, if Lucic can play a full season like he did in the post-season, his contract at least for this year won't be that bad.
Wow.
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