[GT] The Athletic - Top 50 Drafted NHL Prospects - 2 Flames Make Cut

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by bax

What I don't understand is that he had us at 29th last year. If we had 5 guys graduate to the big club (that was 2nd in the league) how was our prospect pool ranked so poorly?

That’s because we keep having prospects graduate.

Sometimes it’s not exactly a problem to be the worst because we keep having players move on up to the big leagues.

I think a better system to grade is the turnover rate from each team. See what teams are constantly pushing out prospects, a team like Chicago for example.

[bax]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

That’s because we keep having prospects graduate.

Sometimes it’s not exactly a problem to be the worst because we keep having players move on up to the big leagues.

I think a better system to grade is the turnover rate from each team. See what teams are constantly pushing out prospects, a team like Chicago for example.

I think you are missing what I'm saying. He ranked our prospect pool 29th overall last year when it included Andersson, Valimaki, Mangiapane, Kylington, and Dube.

I get why we are 31st this year- I don't get why he had us at 29 last year when it turns out those 5 prospects are really good.

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by bax

I think you are missing what I'm saying. He ranked our prospect pool 29th overall last year when it included Andersson, Valimaki, Mangiapane, Kylington, and Dube.

I get why we are 31st this year- I don't get why he had us at 29 last year when it turns out those 5 prospects are really good.

His rankings suffer from extreme recency bias.
If a team has a few top 10 picks who are a few years away, they'll be ranked higher than a team with 3-4 guys that were lower 1st, 2nd etc... But are closer to actually being productive players.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's not recency bias, it's ceiling bias. The possibility of becoming a star is more important to his analysis than the likelihood of playing NHL games overall, so he's more likely to favour boom-or-bust guys than safer prospects. The range of outcomes for more recently drafted higher players is generally broader.

[Flash Walken]

The way you fall in the rankings by graduating players is by graduating players at the same rate as every other NHL team but not graduating elite level players.

Maybe Valimaki is in that group this year, but he's not Cody Glass or Heiskenen or Carter Hart or Elias Pettersson etc etc.

Rasmus looks like he'll be a good solid player but he's not blowing the doors off the league, it just feels like it in Calgary because he's not Greg Nemisz.

It's really great that Dube looks like he'll be a player, maybe even a good one, but Sam Girard, Alex Debrincat have been in the league for 2 years. Other teams have players like Dube. Jordan Kyrou, Jesper Bratt, Joey Anderson, Sam Steel....

We just think it's remarkable because it's so rare in Calgary, but this is more or less business as usual around the league.

Calgary picks less than their peers though so it seems remarkable.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The way you fall in the rankings by graduating players is by graduating players at the same rate as every other NHL team but not graduating elite level players.

Maybe Valimaki is in that group this year, but he's not Cody Glass or Heiskenen or Carter Hart or Elias Pettersson etc etc.

Rasmus looks like he'll be a good solid player but he's not blowing the doors off the league, it just feels like it in Calgary because he's not Greg Nemisz.

It's really great that Dube looks like he'll be a player, maybe even a good one, but Sam Girard, Alex Debrincat have been in the league for 2 years. Other teams have players like Dube. Jordan Kyrou, Jesper Bratt, Joey Anderson, Sam Steel....

We just think it's remarkable because it's so rare in Calgary, but this is more or less business as usual around the league.

Calgary picks less than their peers though so it seems remarkable.

I think I'll have to disagree with you there. What other teams had 5 prospects graduate to play meaningful roles in the NHL last season? Even if other teams did, I have a hard time believing they were more successful than Calgary. We had an all rookie pairing for most of the year and they payed great- that's not insignificant.

I'm not trying to argue that Calgary should have been ranked at the top last year or anything, but I think it's fair to say that third last in the league was a poor ranking on his part.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I really believe that there will be a couple of prospects that really surprise people here this upcoming season - Pettersen and Pelletier.



Pettersen has top-end skill. He had a slow start to his North American career playing in the USHL - must have been the adjustment coming over from Norway and all. That's why he dropped so much in the draft (well, dropping as compared to what many people were hoping to see from a kid who was exceptionally talented and noticed at a very young age). He did much better than expected at the NCAA level, and I think after gaining that experience and having his coaches see first-hand how coachable and reliable he is, that I bet he has a much stronger season that will really turn heads.


Pelletier is a high-end talent. People don't realize that about this kid. There were a few people who watched this kid play in the Q, and they were really pissed that the Flames drafted him there, and were pissed that their favourite teams didn't take him sooner. They looked at him as the straw that stirred the drink on that line, whereas people who didn't see him would point at Jeremy McKenna (19 year old season) being 'the guy'. Sure, those two had some synergy together, but from those watching, Pelletier was the much more talented and much more rounded player. McKenna didn't even get drafted. I had no idea who this kid was leading up to the draft, but after doing my research I am convinced this kid was a steal. Unreal talent and drive in this kid.


I think overall, the talent level at forward and at goaltending is really strong here. Defence is rather shaky if you graduate Kylington and Valimaki, that's for sure, but as far as forwards and goalies go, this team is really deep, even with the 'goalies are a wildcard' mentality.



I disagree with the Flames being in last place. They have consistently been one of the better drafting and developing teams for a few years now, and have been generally better and better since 2008. I just think Pronman is stat watching as he can't possibly go and see every prospect in the organization, and even if he has (by some miracle), I am sure some guys he has only seen once or twice anyway. I don't have a problem with Pronman's reputation as some others have, but he has been wrong just as often as being right (pretty much like anything else out there).



I bet there will be a couple more surprises this upcoming season with respect to the prospect base (I mean, there always is, but a few will move much higher than expected).

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The way you fall in the rankings by graduating players is by graduating players at the same rate as every other NHL team but not graduating elite level players.

Maybe Valimaki is in that group this year, but he's not Cody Glass or Heiskenen or Carter Hart or Elias Pettersson etc etc.

Rasmus looks like he'll be a good solid player but he's not blowing the doors off the league, it just feels like it in Calgary because he's not Greg Nemisz.

It's really great that Dube looks like he'll be a player, maybe even a good one, but Sam Girard, Alex Debrincat have been in the league for 2 years. Other teams have players like Dube. Jordan Kyrou, Jesper Bratt, Joey Anderson, Sam Steel....

We just think it's remarkable because it's so rare in Calgary, but this is more or less business as usual around the league.

Calgary picks less than their peers though so it seems remarkable.

Thanks Debbie Downer .

Interestingly enough, in 2018 Pronman ranked the flames 29th... With the top 5 draft prospects being Kylington, Valimaki, Mangiapane, Andersson, Dube. All of which are the guys he considers "graduated" this time around.

Given he got these 5 spot on, perhaps he's not as big an idiot as is assumed by many.

[Erick Estrada]

He’s not an idiot as he does his homework and I like some of his articles. He is very biased though so you do have to take some of his evaluations with a grain of salt. I don’t have any issue with him ranking the Flames so low as this is what happens when you trade away so many 1st and 2nd round draft picks as the GM has been a little reckless in this regard.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by bax

I think I'll have to disagree with you there. What other teams had 5 prospects graduate to play meaningful roles in the NHL last season? Even if other teams did, I have a hard time believing they were more successful than Calgary. We had an all rookie pairing for most of the year and they payed great- that's not insignificant.

I'm not trying to argue that Calgary should have been ranked at the top last year or anything, but I think it's fair to say that third last in the league was a poor ranking on his part.

I think Dube doesn't count but let's work off this standard, we'll call it 20 games as the cutoff

The Caps had 2
The Jets had 3
Vancouver had 2, one of them the rookie of the year
Toronto had 3 including a 40 point player
Tampa had 3 including a 19 goal player
St. Louis had 3, won the cup with 2 in their lineup
San Jose had 2
Pittsburgh had 3
Philly had 2
Ottawa had a million
The Rangers had 4
The Islanders had 2
The Devils had a million
Montreal had 2
Minnesota had 3
LA had 4
Florida had 5
The Oilers suck ####
Detroit had 4
Dallas had 3 includding a 33 point rookie defender
Colorado had 3 NOT including Makar
Chicago had 5
Calgary had 5
Carolina had 5
Buffalo had 3 including an elite player in Dahlin
Boston had 3
Arizona had 2
Anaheim had 8

If you go back to the last 2 seasons instead of just last season it looks like this:

Caps 5
Jets 6
Vegas 2
Canucks 3, 2 of them elite
Leafs 5
Bolts 5
Blues 5
Sharks 5
Pens 5
Flyers 6
Sens a million
Rangers 7
Isles 7
Preds 3
Devils a million
Habs 6
Wild 7
Kings 10
Panthers 9
Oilers suck ####
Wings 6
Stars 7
Avs 8
Hawks 8
Flames 6
Jackets 3
Canes 6
Sabres 5
Bruins 10
Yotes 5
Ducks 9

The Flames look very pedestrian in these comparisons.

[Enoch Root]

I seem to always disagree strongly with his player rankings. But I don't disagree with him here. If you consider Valimaki, Dube and Kylington as graduated, the flames have very little left in the prospect pool. Not nothing of course - Pelletier and some others have potential. But every team in the league has more than that in their cupboards.

More importantly... who cares? the Flames have a very deep roster of good young players. They are in great shape and there is little room on the roster for more players. It would be great to have more prospects, but I am more concerned with having lots of good young NHLers. And few teams can compare with the Flames on that front.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The Flames look very pedestrian in these comparisons.

The Flames have been graduating players consistently for a few years now. All of whom are still on the roster.

More importantly, you can't look just at quantity, you have to consider quality. And to illustrate the quality, just look at the recent list of top wingers. The Flames have a bunch of high-end players, ALL of whom are young, except for Giordano.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by bax

What I don't understand is that he had us at 29th last year. If we had 5 guys graduate to the big club (that was 2nd in the league) how was our prospect pool ranked so poorly?

we had 5 guys graduate to these roles:

3rd pair D (Andersson)
3rd pair D (Valimaki)
3rd pair D (Kylington)
4th line LW (Mangiapane)
4th line C (Dube)

it's not as of any of the kids jumped in out of the AHL and unseated the likes of Hanifin, Hamonic or Frolik. If the prospects had been percueved as more high end a year ago they probably would have jumped right past these mediocre vets.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Flames have been graduating players consistently for a few years now. All of whom are still on the roster.

More importantly, you can't look just at quantity, you have to consider quality. And to illustrate the quality, just look at the recent list of top wingers. The Flames have a bunch of high-end players, ALL of whom are young, except for Giordano.

"In this post I will say a bunch of things which I think are true but for which I offer up no evidence.

Also, I will pick the best sounding category for the Flames as a reference to other teams: Wingers."

Of the top 50 scoring rookies of the last 4 seasons, the Flames have Gaudreau tied at 6th with Gourde, Laine, Stone. That's 1 point up on Filip Forsberg and 3 points up on Marner and Nylander.

Tkachuk is tied at 20th with Half season mcdavid, Dubois, Hoffman, 1 point back of Aho, 1 point up on Werenski and Heinen.

Of the top 52 rookie scoring seasons of the last 4 years, the Flames have 2

Washington has 1
Winnipeg has 3
Vegas has 1
Vancouver has 2
Toronto has 4
Tampa has 4
St. Louis has 1
Philly has 1
Ottawa has 4
The rangers have 2
the Islanders have 2
Nashville 1
Jersey 2
LA has 1
The Oilers suck ####
Detroit has 1
Dallas has 1
Colorado has 2
Chicago has 3
CBJ has 2
Carolina has 2
Buffalo has 3
Boston has 2
Arizona has 3

So given the widest latitude and best possible outcome for the Flames in this scenario, they are middle of the pack or worse.

The Flames are middle of the pack in overall prospects graduated and middle of the pack in quality graduated.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

"In this post I will say a bunch of things which I think provide evidence for my subjective opinion, even though they do not.

The Flames were 2nd in the NHL last year, on the backs of a very young and deep roster.

But keep on choosing random and subjective reference points to attempt to make an argument that flies in the face of reality.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Flames were 2nd in the NHL last year, on the backs of a very young and deep roster.

But keep on choosing random and subjective reference points to attempt to make an argument that flies in the face of reality.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

"In this post I will say a bunch of things which I think are true but for which I offer up no evidence.

Also, I will pick the best sounding category for the Flames as a reference to other teams: Wingers."

Of the top 50 scoring rookies of the last 4 seasons, the Flames have Gaudreau tied at 6th with Gourde, Laine, Stone. That's 1 point up on Filip Forsberg and 3 points up on Marner and Nylander.

Tkachuk is tied at 20th with Half season mcdavid, Dubois, Hoffman, 1 point back of Aho, 1 point up on Werenski and Heinen.

Of the top 52 rookie scoring seasons of the last 4 years, the Flames have 2

Washington has 1
Winnipeg has 3
Vegas has 1
Vancouver has 2
Toronto has 4
Tampa has 4
St. Louis has 1
Philly has 1
Ottawa has 4
The rangers have 2
the Islanders have 2
Nashville 1
Jersey 2
LA has 1
The Oilers suck ####
Detroit has 1
Dallas has 1
Colorado has 2
Chicago has 3
CBJ has 2
Carolina has 2
Buffalo has 3
Boston has 2
Arizona has 3

So given the widest latitude and best possible outcome for the Flames in this scenario, they are middle of the pack or worse.

The Flames are middle of the pack in overall prospects graduated and middle of the pack in quality graduated.

Speaking of cherry picking....

In fact, in each of the last 6 years the Flames have had at least one rookie join the team and score in the top 50 rookies. Three were in the top ten of their year (Monahan, Gaudreau and Tkachuk) and four more were top 25 (Bennett, Jooris, Janko and Andersson). I say, for a team that's drafted top 5 exactly once out of the relevant years, not bad.