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View Poll Results: Where will housing prices finish at the end of 2015?
I work in O&G - At worst, down 5% 23 19.66%
I work in O&G - Down more than 5% 25 21.37%
I don't work in O&G - At worst, down 5% 24 20.51%
I don't work in O&G - Down more than 5% 31 26.50%
Only time will tell - I have no prediction 14 11.97%
Voters: 117. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-23-2015, 04:26 PM   #41
Travis Munroe
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On a side note, very interesting poll results. If it was more lopsided I was planning on creating a new poll to narrow down the views on % dropped.
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Old 01-23-2015, 04:33 PM   #42
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Question for you Realtor 1 if you don't mind. In a buyers market, would it be wise to list and sell your house first before you look for an upgrade house?
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Old 01-23-2015, 04:39 PM   #43
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Question for you Realtor 1 if you don't mind. In a buyers market, would it be wise to list and sell your house first before you look for an upgrade house?
Everyone is different.

Sell your house first - you can set a 2-3 month close on your place which will give you 2 months to find something new. Inventory will be high so you should have plenty to choose from. When you find the place, nothing is holding you back and you can go after it.

Find new house first or find it while listing on the market - It can put your mind at ease finding that perfect property and knowing you won't sacrifice a thing on the new place. Unless you are in a position to carry both properties, there is a chance that you find the new home, list your current home and the dream home sells while we are selling your place.


I have someone right now who wants to sell their condo and get into a house. We were all set to list the property and then they wanted to search for their new place and make sure that there would be options when the time came. This is the safest route but leads to disappointment more times than not as it will take longer to sell their place (in a buyers market) and they have a good chance of losing that new home while we sell their condo.
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Old 01-23-2015, 04:57 PM   #44
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I see homes reduced by 50-80K and still sitting. Have seen some sold for 50K under list just days after it was listed. And these are the 600-700K homes so fairly large reductions percentage wise. No offer is an insult.

As for Polak.Why try and catch a falling knife? I'd be patient.
There are a lot of situations where houses hit the market overpriced. My neighbours house was put on the market at $660,000 and has dropped in price twice (maybe three times.) It is now $580,000. It is a pretty original 60`s era home which needs a total gut job on the inside.
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Old 01-23-2015, 05:04 PM   #45
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There are a lot of situations where houses hit the market overpriced. My neighbours house was put on the market at $660,000 and has dropped in price twice (maybe three times.) It is now $580,000. It is a pretty original 60`s era home which needs a total gut job on the inside.
Yes, lots of that happening, but last summer they were still selling. For most part. Not so now.
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Old 01-23-2015, 05:18 PM   #46
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good post but you're assuming asking price is close to market price so why would someone lower their price? I'm noticing realtors doing everything they can to get listings including overpricing homes. If comps value a home at 600k and the listing price is 700k it's part of the bubble mania this city has fostered and people think that no matter what they should be able to get more and more and more and more than what pervious sales were. If buddy down the street got 600k for his home that's the same as mine 3 months ago, I'm going to get 700k for mine. This seems to be extremely common when looking at a lot of listings around the city now. "Oh, I really want to sell my home, but for sure I want hundreds of thousands more than what a previous comp sold for because this is Calgary and everything keeps going up towards infinity". Currently there are far more delusional sellers than I've ever seen before. This puts the market in a stalemate. Who will blink first?
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Old 01-26-2015, 11:46 AM   #47
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Within my friends it's about 50/50 on this.

In 2009/2010, the average house price dropped by 10%. I don't know how this could be anything but a worst case scenario.

As such, I think a 5% drop is quite reasonable. I just cannot imagine anyone selling their home at 20-30% discounts like some posters have mentioned. Let's say someone gets laid off - how is selling their home for a 20-30% discount going to help? Where are they going to live after that?

I think that unless we start seeing net migration from Alberta, house prices won't move too much. Unfortunately, I don't see opportunities in other parts of Canada so lucrative, that people are willing to pack up and leave and throw away their assets in Alberta just to go to Ontario or something like that.
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Old 01-26-2015, 11:56 AM   #48
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Within my friends it's about 50/50 on this.

In 2009/2010, the average house price dropped by 10%. I don't know how this could be anything but a worst case scenario.

As such, I think a 5% drop is quite reasonable. I just cannot imagine anyone selling their home at 20-30% discounts like some posters have mentioned. Let's say someone gets laid off - how is selling their home for a 20-30% discount going to help? Where are they going to live after that?

I think that unless we start seeing net migration from Alberta, house prices won't move too much. Unfortunately, I don't see opportunities in other parts of Canada so lucrative, that people are willing to pack up and leave and throw away their assets in Alberta just to go to Ontario or something like that.
I believe the official drop was almost 20% in 09

No one chooses to sell with 20% discount. You are forced to by market realities, or foreclose. Your options get limited when you have no paycheck, houses are dropping and the bank calls your loans.

5%? Current prices are within 1% to where they were in Jan 14. See stats below. Since we gained 10% in 2014 then we pretty much lost all those gains already. No?

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/
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Old 01-26-2015, 12:29 PM   #49
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I believe the official drop was almost 20% in 09

No one chooses to sell with 20% discount. You are forced to by market realities, or foreclose. Your options get limited when you have no paycheck, houses are dropping and the bank calls your loans.

5%? Current prices are within 1% to where they were in Jan 14. See stats below. Since we gained 10% in 2014 then we pretty much lost all those gains already. No?

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/
If you take peak to peak - sure.

If we go by an annual average, then the price between Jan 14 and Jan 2015 has gone up by a couple hundred dollars. My expectation is that when the Jan 2016 numbers come up, it'll be within 5% of the number we see there.

If you cherry pick the very top price, and the very bottom price, and define that as the overall housing market, then sure, a drop of 20% is possible, even reasonable.
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Old 01-26-2015, 12:58 PM   #50
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If you take peak to peak - sure.

If we go by an annual average, then the price between Jan 14 and Jan 2015 has gone up by a couple hundred dollars. My expectation is that when the Jan 2016 numbers come up, it'll be within 5% of the number we see there.

If you cherry pick the very top price, and the very bottom price, and define that as the overall housing market, then sure, a drop of 20% is possible, even reasonable.
We will see in time. 5% sounds like wishful thinking considering the circumstances, but that's just two different opinions. Interestingly Poloz himself said 20% in his last comment on RE. And the BoC is the ultimate RE cheerleader.
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Old 02-02-2015, 01:47 PM   #51
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So in the past 10 days, the total sales stayed relatively constant -45% compared to previous year, and the active listings went from +78% to +113% compared to previous year. Average price went down to roughly that from Jan 2014.

It's getting interesting.

Went to see an open house yesterday, asked the realtor how are the sales now because I heard there was a slowdown. His response? "Never better, it's super busy time. Great time to buy a house now!"

*cough*
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Old 02-02-2015, 02:03 PM   #52
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So in the past 10 days, the total sales stayed relatively constant -45% compared to previous year, and the active listings went from +78% to +113% compared to previous year. Average price went down to roughly that from Jan 2014.

It's getting interesting.

Went to see an open house yesterday, asked the realtor how are the sales now because I heard there was a slowdown. His response? "Never better, it's super busy time. Great time to buy a house now!"

*cough*
Friend of mine went to showhomes in Mohagony couple of weekends back. Crickets, she was the only one there.

Inventory at 5+ months now. Swinging towards a buyers market, but prices have to follow first. Will they and by how much?

http://business.financialpost.com/20...nventory-soar/
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Old 02-02-2015, 02:10 PM   #53
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Nm.

Last edited by darklord700; 02-02-2015 at 03:13 PM.
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Old 02-02-2015, 02:56 PM   #54
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Housing market's January decline seen as 'prelude to correction' ;

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=a183-dc22
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Old 02-02-2015, 08:29 PM   #55
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Really in a tough spot with this market, and what could potentially happen. I just had a seller agree to a 5% discount on a home I am wanting to purchase, now with the uncertain future with my job (contractor) in this market and the risk of losing a crap load of equity if the housing market dips a lot. Ugh... been looking to finally purchase my first home, and been lurking and waiting 2 years, and now this. My heart saids its time to purchase, my mind is all over the place, my conscious said's wait but this place is my dream place and don't want to let it slip away. ####.
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Old 02-03-2015, 06:46 AM   #56
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Really in a tough spot with this market, and what could potentially happen. I just had a seller agree to a 5% discount on a home I am wanting to purchase, now with the uncertain future with my job (contractor) in this market and the risk of losing a crap load of equity if the housing market dips a lot. Ugh... been looking to finally purchase my first home, and been lurking and waiting 2 years, and now this. My heart saids its time to purchase, my mind is all over the place, my conscious said's wait but this place is my dream place and don't want to let it slip away. ####.
http://business.financialpost.com/20...nventory-soar/

House prices will drop more before they stabilize, imo. Maybe wait a couple of months and see if your job is safe, I'm sure there will be nice places available later on, probably for a discount. If you are buying a home but you can't afford the payments for at least 6 months after losing a job, then I would say you haven't saved enough money. Of course this is a non-expert opinion.
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Old 02-03-2015, 11:24 AM   #57
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Really in a tough spot with this market, and what could potentially happen. I just had a seller agree to a 5% discount on a home I am wanting to purchase, now with the uncertain future with my job (contractor) in this market and the risk of losing a crap load of equity if the housing market dips a lot. Ugh... been looking to finally purchase my first home, and been lurking and waiting 2 years, and now this. My heart saids its time to purchase, my mind is all over the place, my conscious said's wait but this place is my dream place and don't want to let it slip away. ####.
Your job uncertainly is the biggest issue, but wanted to comment on the rest of it.

I've seen people wait for drops before buying many times before, and many end up sitting on the sideline forever.
They won't buy in an increasing market, cause they're awaiting the impending doom.
But when prices do drop, they still sit on the sideline because they're trying to time the absolute bottom. Won't buy at 5% down, cause it might go to 10%. Won't buy at 10% down, cause it might go 15%.
Next thing you know, it rebounds quickly and they missed out on the down market while it was there and they spend another 3 years waiting for the next down cycle.

My 2 cents: Don't drive yourself crazy trying to time the exact bottom and top on all cycles. Buy in down cycles, and sell in up cycles and you'll generally do very well in the long term. Not to mention owning the right home for you at the right time, which has value in itself.
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:18 PM   #58
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Your job uncertainly is the biggest issue, but wanted to comment on the rest of it.

I've seen people wait for drops before buying many times before, and many end up sitting on the sideline forever.
They won't buy in an increasing market, cause they're awaiting the impending doom.
But when prices do drop, they still sit on the sideline because they're trying to time the absolute bottom. Won't buy at 5% down, cause it might go to 10%. Won't buy at 10% down, cause it might go 15%.
Next thing you know, it rebounds quickly and they missed out on the down market while it was there and they spend another 3 years waiting for the next down cycle.

My 2 cents: Don't drive yourself crazy trying to time the exact bottom and top on all cycles. Buy in down cycles, and sell in up cycles and you'll generally do very well in the long term. Not to mention owning the right home for you at the right time, which has value in itself.
I absolutely support what you're saying. However, maybe buying at the very beginning of a down cycle is not the best idea?

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=c2e2-aa08
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:28 PM   #59
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All good info, thanks guys. FYI the place (suburban townhouse) I want to buy is a tab bit under $400K, would any of you predict for these to really be affected greatly? I was just finishing highschool during the last recession so I am not entirely informed on how much the last drop affected the suburban south communities.
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Old 02-03-2015, 01:41 PM   #60
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All good info, thanks guys. FYI the place (suburban townhouse) I want to buy is a tab bit under $400K, would any of you predict for these to really be affected greatly? I was just finishing highschool during the last recession so I am not entirely informed on how much the last drop affected the suburban south communities.
When I heard you say dream home I though of a one of a kind house in a unique location and not a suburban townhome

Don't rush, there will be tons of these cookie cutters on the market.
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