[Signing] Flames sign Jacob Markstrom. (6 yrs, $6mil AAV)

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I guess the point is being missed. Simply put, almost every team in the league has a player who was drafted in top 3. Every cup winner does. Every first round fodder does. Every bottom dweller does. The reason why only one team without a top 3 pick won a cup in last 13 years is because there have been very few such teams to begin with.

List of top 3 picks between 2004-2019 (48 picks):

Anaheim (1)
Arizona (2)
Boston (1)* (Seguin)
Buffalo (3)
Carolina (2)
Chicago (4)
Colorado (3)
Columbus (2)
Dallas (1)
Edmonton (5)
Florida (4)
LA (1)
Montreal (2)
New Jersey (2)
New York Islanders (1)
New York Rangers (1)
Philadelphia (2)
Pittsburgh (3)
St. Louis (1)
Tampa (3)
Toronto (1)* (Plus Seguin)
Washington (1)
Winnipeg (2)

Detroit, Ottawa, Minnesota, Nashville, Calgary, San Jose, and Vancouver are the non-recent-expansion teams to not have a third or better pick between 2004 and 2019. Those teams since the 2013-2014 season (coming up on 9 seasons):

Detroit - Zero playoff series win. Missed playoffs last 6 consecutive years
Ottawa - Two playoff series win (2017x2). Missed playoffs last 5 consecutive years, 6 total times
Minnesota - Two playoff series win (2014, 2015). Haven't missed playoffs.
Nashville - Five playoff series win (2016, 2017x3, 2018). Missed playoffs 2 times.
Calgary - Two playoff series win (2015, 2022*). Missed playoffs 5 times.
San Jose - Seven playoff series win (2013, 2016x3, 2018, 2019x2). Missed playoffs last 3 consecutive years, 4 total times.
Vancouver - One playoff series win (2019). Missed playoffs last 2 seasons, 7 times total.

Minnesota has shown you can be the pinnacle of mediocracy if you don't draft high. Nashville did go on a pretty decent Cinderella run after squeaking into the playoffs in 2017. But it seems like the key to being a good team if you haven't drafted in the top 3 in recent years is to do what the Sharks did...build around two old top three picks after being gifted one of them for peanuts during his Hart season.

So yeah, teams with top 3 draft picks can be anywhere from dynasties to AHL-calibre, but teams without top 3 picks are seemingly just bad.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

List of top 3 picks between 2004-2019 (48 picks):

Anaheim (1)
Arizona (2)
Boston (1)* (Seguin)
Buffalo (3)
Carolina (2)
Chicago (4)
Colorado (3)
Columbus (2)
Dallas (1)
Edmonton (5)
Florida (4)
LA (1)
Montreal (2)
New Jersey (2)
New York Islanders (1)
New York Rangers (1)
Philadelphia (2)
Pittsburgh (3)
St. Louis (1)
Tampa (3)
Toronto (1)* (Plus Seguin)
Washington (1)
Winnipeg (2)

Detroit, Ottawa, Minnesota, Nashville, Calgary, San Jose, and Vancouver are the non-recent-expansion teams to not have a third or better pick between 2004 and 2019. Those teams since the 2013-2014 season (coming up on 9 seasons):

Detroit - Zero playoff series win. Missed playoffs last 6 consecutive years
Ottawa - Two playoff series win (2017x2). Missed playoffs last 5 consecutive years, 6 total times
Minnesota - Two playoff series win (2014, 2015). Haven't missed playoffs.
Nashville - Five playoff series win (2016, 2017x3, 2018). Missed playoffs 2 times.
Calgary - Two playoff series win (2015, 2022*). Missed playoffs 5 times.
San Jose - Seven playoff series win (2013, 2016x3, 2018, 2019x2). Missed playoffs last 3 consecutive years, 4 total times.
Vancouver - One playoff series win (2019). Missed playoffs last 2 seasons, 7 times total.

Minnesota has shown you can be the pinnacle of mediocracy if you don't draft high. Nashville did go on a pretty decent Cinderella run after squeaking into the playoffs in 2017. But it seems like the key to being a good team if you haven't drafted in the top 3 in recent years is to do what the Sharks did...build around two old top three picks after being gifted one of them for peanuts during his Hart season.

So yeah, teams with top 3 draft picks can be anywhere from dynasties to AHL-calibre, but teams without top 3 picks are seemingly just bad.

You only count those team with the original pick. Calgary has Gudbransson for example. We also used to have Zyuzin (2nd) and Hamrlik (1st).

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

List of top 3 picks between 2004-2019 (48 picks):

Anaheim (1)
Arizona (2)
Boston (1)* (Seguin)
Buffalo (3)
Carolina (2)
Chicago (4)
Colorado (3)
Columbus (2)
Dallas (1)
Edmonton (5)
Florida (4)
LA (1)
Montreal (2)
New Jersey (2)
New York Islanders (1)
New York Rangers (1)
Philadelphia (2)
Pittsburgh (3)
St. Louis (1)
Tampa (3)
Toronto (1)* (Plus Seguin)
Washington (1)
Winnipeg (2)

Detroit, Ottawa, Minnesota, Nashville, Calgary, San Jose, and Vancouver are the non-recent-expansion teams to not have a third or better pick between 2004 and 2019. Those teams since the 2013-2014 season (coming up on 9 seasons):

Detroit - Zero playoff series win. Missed playoffs last 6 consecutive years
Ottawa - Two playoff series win (2017x2). Missed playoffs last 5 consecutive years, 6 total times
Minnesota - Two playoff series win (2014, 2015). Haven't missed playoffs.
Nashville - Five playoff series win (2016, 2017x3, 2018). Missed playoffs 2 times.
Calgary - Two playoff series win (2015, 2022*). Missed playoffs 5 times.
San Jose - Seven playoff series win (2013, 2016x3, 2018, 2019x2). Missed playoffs last 3 consecutive years, 4 total times.
Vancouver - One playoff series win (2019). Missed playoffs last 2 seasons, 7 times total.

Minnesota has shown you can be the pinnacle of mediocracy if you don't draft high. Nashville did go on a pretty decent Cinderella run after squeaking into the playoffs in 2017. But it seems like the key to being a good team if you haven't drafted in the top 3 in recent years is to do what the Sharks did...build around two old top three picks after being gifted one of them for peanuts during his Hart season.

So yeah, teams with top 3 draft picks can be anywhere from dynasties to AHL-calibre, but teams without top 3 picks are seemingly just bad.

You only count those teams with the original pick. This skew things a bit. In reality Toronto has two 1sts Matthews and Tavares, not one. Calgary has Gudbransson for example. We also used to have Zyuzin (2nd) and Hamrlik (1st).

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Pointman

You only count those team with the original pick. Calgary has Gudbransson for example. We also used to have Zyuzin (2nd) and Hamrlik (1st).

Yes. I think generally when people talk about having a top 3 pick, they mean actually having the pick and drafting, not just a player who was picked in the top 3. Certainly some gray area for players like Seguin who were drafted by a team that traded for the pick and as to whether that counts for Boston or Toronto.

Otherwise, who was the team that didn't have a top 3 pick to win the Cup? St. Louis had Bouwmeester (3rd overall), Detroit had Stuart (3rd overall), Ducks and Devils had Neidermayer (and Pronger, sort of Ryan for Anaheim).

I'm pretty sure you need to go back to 2001 and the surprisingly lack of top 3 overall Colorado Avalanche. Sakic, Roy, Bourque, Forsberg, but not seeing any top 3s on that team.

Which is ironic as it was a team that was probably built through one fortuitous draft pick than any other team, outside of maybe the Edmonton McDavids. The Lindros pick obviously speaks for itself but even Sundin beget Clark beget Lemeiux beget Rolston beget Bourque.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

No UFA goalie with prior NHL experience has ever won the cup in the history of the NHL. Thomas and Niemi were signings, but they had no prior NHL experience.

This is despite the fact, that at any given moment, at least a third of the starting goalies are UFA signings.

Really, by this logic, Calgary, Carolina, and Edmonton, can't win the cup.

Cup-winning teams don't sign UFA goalies in the first place. Cup-winning teams know how to draft and develop their own goaltenders. Most of these goalies are on the right side of 30 when they do win the cup.

Do I think they Flames should trade Markstrom? Not if they don't have a replacement in mind for next season.
But developing Wolf is extremely crucial. This cannot be understated.

Absolutely none of this is logical.

Correlation =/= causation.

[dino7c]

Pretty good chance a team with a goalie they didn't draft or develop is winning the cup this season

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Absolutely none of this is logical.

Correlation =/= causation.

It's also not really true. Vernon, Osgood, and Hasek all signed UFA contracts with the Wings before they won their Cups with them.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

It's also not really true. Vernon, Osgood, and Hasek all signed UFA contracts with the Wings before they won their Cups with them.

Khabibulin

[OptimalTates]

Belfour for Dallas too..

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Khabibulin

1) He never won the Cup.
2) The dude will pull a gotcha and argue (correctly) that he signed as a RFA after a contract dispute with the Coyotes.


But the "homegrown" argument from earlier doesn't hold much water.

[dino7c]

would Markstrom be a better goalie had the Flames traded for his rights and not signed him as a UFA

[Buff]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

It's also not really true. Vernon, Osgood, and Hasek all signed UFA contracts with the Wings before they won their Cups with them.

Vernon was traded to Detroit.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Buff

Vernon was traded to Detroit.

EDIT: Woops, yes but he also became and signed as a UFA with Detroit.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by dino7c

would Markstrom be a better goalie had the Flames traded for his rights and not signed him as a UFA

Absolutely. It’s science.

Same when a team can’t win in a particular building through multiple eras of teams… it’s science.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

1) He never won the Cup.
2) The dude will pull a gotcha and argue (correctly) that he signed as a RFA after a contract dispute with the Coyotes.


But the "homegrown" argument from earlier doesn't hold much water.

Are you saying he didn’t win the cup because “it was in” in 2004 or did you forget he was Tampa’s goalie when they won?

[Squirrel]

LOL, remember the good old days when Tre "won the offseason" by outbidding everyone and bringing in Markstrom. Seems forever ago...

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Are you saying he didn’t win the cup because “it was in” in 2004 or did you forget he was Tampa’s goalie when they won?

Come on Vinny!

Everyone remembers who made that blocker save. Everyone.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Absolutely none of this is logical.

Correlation =/= causation.

It's pretty much true in the cap era. IIRC Osgood is the exception...a homegrown DET guy that left and came back.

The logical aspect is that if you have an elite goaltender, you probably aren't letting them walk away if you can help it.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Pretty good chance a team with a goalie they didn't draft or develop is winning the cup this season

At this moment the odds are probably:

Vasi
Kuemper
...
Shesterkin == Husso/Binnington == Raanta
Smith
Markstrom

Kinda seems like Kuemper or bust. Canes could certainly do it, but they've got an awfully tough path (as would NYR).

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Which is ironic as it was a team that was probably built through one fortuitous draft pick than any other team, outside of maybe the Edmonton McDavids. The Lindros pick obviously speaks for itself but even Sundin beget Clark beget Lemeiux beget Rolston beget Bourque.

1st OA Nolan also beget Ozolinsh for cup #1.

Ozolinsh + 2nd was traded for 1st+2nd+2nd...one of those assets was then used in the deal to acquire Blake+Reinprecht (though probably the least valuable asset in that deal)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It's pretty much true in the cap era. IIRC Osgood is the exception...a homegrown DET guy that left and came back.

The logical aspect is that if you have an elite goaltender, you probably aren't letting them walk away if you can help it.



At this moment the odds are probably:

Vasi
Kuemper
...
Shesterkin == Husso/Binnington == Raanta
Smith
Markstrom

Kinda seems like Kuemper or bust. Canes could certainly do it, but they've got an awfully tough path (as would NYR).

Avalanche are the cup favorite at every reputable sportsbook I know of

Goalie drafted by Minny and currently on his 3rd team