2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

That's more than what the Flames spent to get Dougie Hamilton. I don't think you will find another team willing to do a trade like that.

Calgary gave up the 15th, 45th, and 52nd overall picks all in 2015 to get Dougie with knowing what the picks were.

Calgary gave up the 12th and 43rd in 2018 and the 57th in 2019 to get Travis Hamonic without knowing what the picks were.

Noah Hanifin is locked in for 4 more years at 4.95M - cost certainty when the cap is going to be frozen at 81.5, 81.5 and 82.5 for the next 3 seasons. Just as we paid a premium for Hamonic, it's reasonable to expect a premium being paid here.

1st + 2nd + 2nd is market value for a player in Hanifin's situation, and the 1st being in that 10-15 range is a reasonable expectation.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

So that means nine players scoring 30+ points? Looking back to the last full season played there are only a few teams who had nine forwards who scored 30+ points. Some others close, including the Flames. The secret appears to have no high priced superstars and guys that don't eat up a ton of minutes. It's possible, but that requires the majority of our roster having career best seasons. Certainly won't happen with the current roster and current level of play from the guys we have.

Yeah that's a tall order.

Generally the average 9th forward is a 20-21 point player.

[BigErnSalute_16]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

For me, part of it is also gaining assets from Hanifin while not losing the better defender for nothing.

I think Brodie is better than Hanifin today, and likely will be for the next 2 to 3 season in my opinion. In no way do I dislike Hanifin though, I am tired of seeing this team manage reactively rather than proactively.

We ended up giving up the 12th overall (2018), 43rd overall (2018), and 57th overall (2019) for Travis Hamonic - I'd be looking for that type of return. So when we traded that 12th overall pick, we didn't know it was a 12th overall - but I'd do it for a 12th overall in this year's draft + 2nd round picks.

If things were to end today with no return to play, these are the teams in the range I'd look at:

New Jersey - 10th
Minnesota - 11th
Winnipeg - 12th
New York - 13th
Florida - 14th
Columbus - 15th

I'd argue most of those teams would have interest for those picks.

I don't know if Brodie is all that much better than Hanifin right now, I think most of his value comes in how effectively he can play with Giordano.

But that being said, why trade Hanifin for picks now when we don't need to? He still has multiple years on his contract and the guy everyone is slotting in to replace him hasn't played in over a year and only has 24 NHL games on his resume.

Let Hanifin Andersson see what they can do with an increased role next season while at the same time seeing what Valimaki can do then reevaluate your options next offseason.

one of my biggest nightmares for the flames is watching them trade Hanifin for a couple of picks or a 50-60 point forward before we know what he can do and having him blossom into a 50-60 point top par defensmen when given the opportunity.

If we aren't trading him for a for sure upgrade on forward (which max Domi definitely isn't) then there is no need to rush him out the door right now.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah that's a tall order.

Generally the average 9th forward is a 20-21 point player.

The Sharks and Lightning both did it last year. Most years there are teams who get 8 forwards as high as 30 points. But between injuries and ice time limitations it's pretty uncommon to have 9. Having 9 guys who could or have done so before is one thing. Having them all do it is another. Last year Jankowski went over 30 largely because he collected a lot of shorthanded points.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Sharks and Lightning both did it last year. Most years there are teams who get 8 forwards as high as 30 points. But between injuries and ice time limitations it's pretty uncommon to have 9. Having 9 guys who could or have done so before is one thing. Having them all do it is another.

*EDIT*

Nevermind. I see that by last year you were referring to 2018–19. Carry on.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I've been on the boat of trading Hanifin, but something tells me the minute we trade him, Giordano regresses worse than we've ever seen. That would leave us with Valimaki to be relied upon as the LD savior.

Keep Hanifin, he played really well when he played with Andersson. He did not play well with Hamonic. Know who else didn't? Brodie. There's a common denominator there.

I only move Hanifin if that is what it takes to get an upgrade on center, like Eichel for example (this has been beaten to death). If Monahan + Hanfin + more gets Eichel, then you do it. If not, then why just do a lateral move with Domi? Doesn't make sense to get Domi, especially when Calgary attempts to sign Hall.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by New Era

Phillips hasn't played a shift in the NHL, but he's going to give us scoring that is not there.

A big part of the game is playing physical and wearing teams down. This is what differentiates the good from the bad. Teams used to hate playing Calgary because they would leave bruised and drained regardless of the outcome. The team we have now is too small, too soft, and too easy to play against. We need more size and we need more physicality.



If you have the talent AND ability to play at the NHL level. Part of that ability is to handle the physical play of the game. Phillips has not proven he can do that. I don't think that we have the talent to surround him with on the third line to make him successful.



Define scoring or expected production. What is scoring from the third line? 1st line - 60+ points? 2nd line - 40+ points? 3rd line - ??? What is the expectation. Also, who is Phillips bumping from the lineup to get this playing time? Who is he especially bumping on the PP to get this "solid" time?

I never once said to pencil Phillips in on the 3rd line next season. I was speaking in general terms.

But if Phillips were to come into training camp next season and earn his spot, there's absolutely zero problem playing him on the third line.

Time have changed. You don't have just big grinders playing your bottom 6 anywhere.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

I never once said to pencil Phillips in on the 3rd line next season. I was speaking in general terms.

But if Phillips were to come into training camp next season and earn his spot, there's absolutely zero problem playing him on the third line.

Time have changed. You don't have just big grinders playing your bottom 6 anywhere.

Last years SC winners most common 4th line combo by ice time averaged 6'1" 210 lb. In 66 games they combined for 16 pts.

Size on your lower lines certainly does matter.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Last years SC winners most common 4th line combo by ice time averaged 6'1" 210 lb. In 66 games they combined for 16 pts.

Size on your lower lines certainly does matter.

Based on what I am seeing there were two players on the St Louis Blues's third line who were both only 6'0" and well under 200 lbs: Robert Thomas (6'0", 188 lbs) and Ian Barbashev (6'0", 187 lbs). The point stands that the Blues had players playing in the bottom six who would not be charactised as "big grinders," and I would posit that size does not matter a lot.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

When 2 of your top 4 are injured it kinda forces things...both deadline deals the Flames made were solid IMO. I hope one or both stick around at the right price

Well they’re both rentals so I’d take a whole bunch of UFA defensemen at the right price. Kind of a given. Pretty much the same thing said about Fantenberg.

I don’t think you’re wrong in assessing any of those deals in isolation, it’s the long term strategy around paying for depth that the poster took issue with and which I tend to agree with. We can go down the list of what this club has given up for depth over the last few years in dollars and draft capital. To me it explains where the club is at.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

I never once said to pencil Phillips in on the 3rd line next season. I was speaking in general terms.

Forgive me for thinking you did. You were pretty specific in what you said.

"If Phillips on the 3rd line gives you a great third scoring line, there's no problem with him being there. He'd still get solid time on the PP."

So specific you mentioned that he would also get PP time. But if you want to claim you we speaking in generalities then I will take that as what you meant.

But if Phillips were to come into training camp next season and earn his spot, there's absolutely zero problem playing him on the third line.

That's a massive "if." Phillips hasn't shown anything that indicates he can play at this level to date, so that may be having expectations he will struggle to meet. We'll wait until training camp. I'd be more inclined to look at Gawdin stepping up more so than Phillips.

Time have changed. You don't have just big grinders playing your bottom 6 anywhere.

Have they? If we were to look at the bottom six line ups around the league, based on Cap Friendly's depth charts, what do you think we would find? How many bottom six forwards would fall below the league average of 6'0, 200 lbs (from The Athletic). How many would fall outside the margin of error and be classified a small forward (below 5'10, 185 pounds)? Basically looking at number of players that are in the average band (5'10, 185 to 6'2, 210) and where the extremes are (small and big). Also, we'll identify the smallest player and where they shake out on the depth chart.

Anaheim
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Three
Smallest player on team: Sam Steel (5'11, 189)
Arizona
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Three
Smallest player on team: Vinnie Hinostroza (5'9, 173 - 2nd line).
Boston
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Brad Marchand (5'9, 181 - 1st line).
Buffalo
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: JS Dea (5'11, 168 - 4th line).
Calgary
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Johnny Gaudreau (5'9, 165 - 1st line).
Carolina
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: One
Smallest player on team: Vincent Trochek (5'10, 183 - 2nd line).
Chicago
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Alex Debrincat (5'7, 165 - 1st line).
Colorado
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: One
Smallest player on team: Matt Nieto (5'11, 185 - 4th line).
Columbus
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Cam Atkinson (5'8, 175 - 2nd line).
Dallas
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Andrew Coglinao (5'10, 175 - 3rd line).
Detroit
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Dmytro Timashov (5'10, 192 - 2nd line).
Edmonton
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Four
Smallest player on team: Kailer Yamamoto (5'8, 153 - 2nd line).
Florida
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Aleski Saarela (5'10, 200 - 3rd line).
Los Angeles
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Blake Lizotte (5'7, 172 - 3rd line).
Minnesota
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Matt Zuccarello (5'8, 178 - 4th line).
Montreal
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Paul Byron (5'9, 158 - 4th line).
Nashville
Number of small forwards: Two
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Rocco Grimaldi (5'6, 180 - 4th line).
New Jersey
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Nikita Gusev (5'9, 163 - 2nd line).
Islanders
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: One
Smallest player on team: JG Pageau (5'10, 180 - 3rd line).
Rangers
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: One
Smallest player on team: Artemi Panarin (5'11, 170 - 1st line).
Ottawa
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Four
Smallest player on team: Rudolfs Balcers (5'11, 175 - 2nd line).
Philadelphia
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Travis Konecy (5'10, 175 - 2nd line).
Pittsburgh
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Conor Sheary (5'8, 179 - 1st line).
San Jose
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Marcus Sorensen (5'11, 175 - 2nd line).
St. Louis
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Jaden Schwartz (5'10, 190 - 1st line).
Tampa
Number of small forwards: Two
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Tyler Johnson (5'8, 182 - 3rd line).
Toronto
Number of small forwards: One
Number of big forwards: Three
Smallest player on team: Nicholas Robertson (5'9, 162 - 3rd line).
Vancouver
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Zero
Smallest player on team: Tyler Toffoli (6'0, 197 - 1st line).
Vegas
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Three
Smallest player on team: Jonathan Marchessault (5'9, 180 - 2nd line).
Washington
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: Two
Smallest player on team: Carl Hagelin (6'0, 185 - 3rd line).
Winnipeg
Number of small forwards: Zero
Number of big forwards: One
Smallest player on team: Mathieu Perreault (5'10, 188 - 4th line).

Of all the bottom six player on these rosters (186 players) only 11 (5%) were considered small players. Conversely, 43 (23%) were considered big players. Looking regular distribution, seems the numbers are skewed on those bottom lines to bring the beef. I don't think your claim is accurate or reflective of the league.

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Last years SC winners most common 4th line combo by ice time averaged 6'1" 210 lb. In 66 games they combined for 16 pts.

Size on your lower lines certainly does matter.

It really doesn't.

When Pittsburgh won the Cup in 15-16, they were the 5th lightest team and 7th smallest team in the NHL. When they won the Cup in 16-17, they were the 4th lightest team and 11th smallest team.

When Chicago won the Cup in 14-15, they were the 2nd lightest team and 10th smallest team in the NHL.

Just like you'll find some teams that have won being big and heavy, you'll find teams that have won being small and light.

Size and weight does not matter. Being the best team you can possibly be does.

[David Struch]

Theo Fleury was the 4th line Centre when the Flames won the Cup in '89.

[N26]

While I would admit he had more downs than ups last year I would never trade Hanifin unless it was necessary in some big deal where we were getting the better player.

I don't trade 389-game-experienced, 6'3", 205lb, 23-year old defensemen with term and a decent salary at a time of salary cap crunch (for years!) and an upcoming expansion draft.

Over his career he has shown poise, defensive skill, offensive skill and a high hockey IQ. Not quite consistently enough yet but he looks like he could be a horse for years if he takes that step. Him and Andersson could be a great long-term pairing.

Am I in the minority here or is it just that the people who trade a guy after a couple of bad turnovers are being very vocal?

[Vinny01]

I remember how many people wanted Brodie punted to the sun in 2018 after being paired with Hamonic. While I like Hamonic he is just no where near the player the Flames thought they were acquiring when they moved all those picks in 2017.

Before giving up on Hanifin it would be wise to get him an new partner and see how he looks with that player. He and Andersson were strong when paired together.

Having said that if the Flames are able to acquire a top 4 Dman in a deal for Johnny I am not opposed to moving Hanifin for a top 6 forward. I am not as down on Domi as a few posters are but I would want more coming with him. The Habs have several 2nd round picks this coming draft and a couple of those attached with Domi would be appealing and help refill the prospect cupboard while also adding a top 6 C/W. Again that only makes sense to me if the team is adding a top 4 D elsewhere

[Roof-Daddy]

Flames should try to get Gusev from NJ. Not sure what it cost.

He's only got a year left on his deal, but he's a supremely skilled right shot winger. Feels like he just scratched the surface of what he's capable of last season.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Gusev

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Gusev

If they sign Hall and keep Johnny:

Hall - Monahan - Gaudreau
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Gusev

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I remember how many people wanted Brodie punted to the sun in 2018 after being paired with Hamonic. While I like Hamonic he is just no where near the player the Flames thought they were acquiring when they moved all those picks in 2017.

Before giving up on Hanifin it would be wise to get him an new partner and see how he looks with that player. He and Andersson were strong when paired together.

Having said that if the Flames are able to acquire a top 4 Dman in a deal for Johnny I am not opposed to moving Hanifin for a top 6 forward. I am not as down on Domi as a few posters are but I would want more coming with him. The Habs have several 2nd round picks this coming draft and a couple of those attached with Domi would be appealing and help refill the prospect cupboard while also adding a top 6 C/W. Again that only makes sense to me if the team is adding a top 4 D elsewhere

I'd love to acquire Sanheim from Philly. Believe he can play LD/RD, we'd probably use him on RD. If Gaudreau was traded to Philly, Sanheim is my base.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Flames should try to get Gusev from NJ. Not sure what it cost.

He's only got a year left on his deal, but he's a supremely skilled right shot winger. Feels like he just scratched the surface of what he's capable of last season.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Gusev

Tkachuk - Lindholm - Gusev

If they sign Hall and keep Johnny:

Hall - Monahan - Gaudreau
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Gusev

Gusev plays LW. It would cost a 1st and a prospect, Gusev was playing really well before the break. Devils are better off giving him tons of ice time and PP time to drive up his value, then shipping him off at the deadline.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Noah Hanifin is locked in for 4 more years at 4.95M - cost certainty when the cap is going to be frozen at 81.5, 81.5 and 82.5 for the next 3 seasons. Just as we paid a premium for Hamonic, it's reasonable to expect a premium being paid here.

1st + 2nd + 2nd is market value for a player in Hanifin's situation, and the 1st being in that 10-15 range is a reasonable expectation.

I don't agree with this. The Flames clearly overpaid for Hamonic. It has been reported that Toronto also had strong interest too but that just means that Treliving made the blunder of outbidding Dubas for a commodity.

Another factor is a looming expansion draft. One of the reasons that the Flames may have got Hamilton for good value was that the pending expansion draft was only going to allow teams to protect a limited number of known players but had no limits on yet to be established assets like draft picks. So picks likely had increased value plus them all being from the same draft. Whereas when the Flames dealt for Hamonic there was no expansion draft being held for the entire term of the contract.

So at this point there is another looming expansion draft. So any team trading for Hanifin will also factor in the player they may need to expose or lose into the equation. So the unknown round 2 pick now might have more value than a guy like Kylington.

I personally do not think trading Hanifin for future picks now is the right move. After the expansion draft I think he would have more trade value. I would consider moving him for a top line RW or a deal to add a top 6 center. But if those do not materialize keeping him and trying to develop him to anchor a second pair is a good option.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Gusev plays LW. It would cost a 1st and a prospect, Gusev was playing really well before the break. Devils are better off giving him tons of ice time and PP time to drive up his value, then shipping him off at the deadline.

Definitely not a price the Flames should pay.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Giordano - Brodie
Valimaki - Andersson

Pretty dang strong top four. It features the best pairing in the NHL, and two young excellent defenders - who make take a lump or two, but I’d bet on them any day.

Top that off with Kylington and a bargain UFA sounds pretty good to me.

The days of overpaying for veteran bottom 2 defenceman should be behind us. Trust the youth that has earned the opportunity. Kylington deserves to be an every day defenceman - that pushes Valimaki to the 2nd pairing, which might be a bit much but not a huge reach.

Brodie is a UFA and the Flames traded him a year ago. If I'm Brodie, I'd test the market.