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Old 01-26-2024, 03:47 PM   #1
TherapyforGlencross
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Thought this deserved its own thread apart from the Hamas-Israel thread.

Iran-backed Houthis attacked a US warship, and I think this is the first time they’ve directly attempted to attack a warship.

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Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a missile Friday at a U.S. warship patrolling the Gulf of Aden, forcing it to shoot down the projectile, and struck a British vessel as their aggressive attacks on maritime traffic continue.

The attack on the U.S. warship, the destroyer USS Carney, marked a further escalation in the biggest confrontation at sea the U.S. Navy has seen in the Middle East in decades, as Houthi missile fire set another commercial vessel ablaze Friday night.

What is the US’ red line?
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Old 01-28-2024, 10:03 AM   #2
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3 American soldiers killed in North East Jordan by an Iranian drone attack. Biden vows to retaliate
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Old 01-28-2024, 12:15 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross View Post
What is the US’ red line?
One day Biden's just going to say something like:

"I'm going to look over here, and if the Secretary of the Navy does something during the next 3 months? I didnt see it."
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Old 01-28-2024, 12:18 PM   #4
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It’s weird and a bad idea by the Houthis to antagonize the Americans and that shipping lane. They can’t even win the war against the Saudi / UN backed legit government in Yemen so I’m not sure why now they’d think they can take on the USA.

Bold strategy cotton.
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Old 01-28-2024, 12:22 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee View Post
It’s weird and a bad idea by the Houthis to antagonize the Americans and that shipping lane. They can’t even win the war against the Saudi / UN backed legit government in Yemen so I’m not sure why now they’d think they can take on the USA.

Bold strategy cotton.
Because they think they wont have to.

The US, historically, is very cautious before being dragged into confrontations. Despite having the biggest Armed Forces on Earth they tend not to retaliate directly.

The real question is...do you want to be the last Idiot Clown to poke that Bear before it gets sick of it and loses its mind?

Because its going to be somebody. Do you want it to be you?
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Old 01-28-2024, 12:32 PM   #6
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In this instance the States will absolutely engage because… money.

The USA navy has generally been keeping international waterways safe for the last 75 years since post WW2. They’re not going to let the idiotic rag tag Houthis expose them as weak and they absolutely will respond. It doesn’t mean they need to engage in a ground invasion. Quite the contrary it actually means re-engaging with the Yemen government to supply key intelligence, possibly weapons and other military support which they were previously providing under Obama and Trump but that Biden when he came in office withdrew from. So from a Houthi strategic perspective it puts the current Yemen conflict at risk and they won’t do any real material harm, damage, or pose any real threat once the States get real. It’s a really bad idea.

For the Houthis it’s a super bad idea, I’m not sure why Iran is pushing them to do this. Seems like a bad idea for Iran too, to be honest, given the diplomatic advances they’d made with the Saudis, China, etc. over the last year or so.

I think that the Houthis, after missile attacking the Yemen oil export facility in order to gain concessions from the May 22 truce extension, have overplayed their hand. After that missile attack in Nov 22, they had strategically more sway and pull in Yemen. Their negotiations were working with that pressure. But now? Why drag in the bear?? They are an absolutely despicable regime, and the stories and knowledge I have gained about them and how they treat local communities, women, kids, etc. would make the Saudis blush. Just awful people. If you’re a fan of things like human rights, even though the Saudis and Yemen gov have 100% their own fair share of grotesque approaches to things, their overall approach to human rights is 10 fold better than the Houthis. Not even debatable. This is a horrendous group, the Houthis.

Last edited by Mr.Coffee; 01-28-2024 at 12:38 PM.
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Old 01-28-2024, 12:33 PM   #7
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Iran would love for the US to retaliate against the Houthis. They would have the US and Israel seemingly fighting in unison against Muslims in the middle east. The great Satan in action would distract from their own problems at home, which are immense.

The US is aware of this and will be very hesitant to engage in a full scale war. The US has largely changed their tactics in the middle east to precision strikes anyways. They've more or less established that they can hit anyone anywhere there without impunity. Short of actually bombing the Ayatollahs directly, they can get away with a lot via technologically lopsided drone warfare.

This was the major policy shift under Obama. His administration carried out over 500 drone strikes, including many in Yemen.
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Old 01-28-2024, 01:00 PM   #8
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Not really. They’d be aligned with other muslims ie the Saudis and friends. It’s a #####e vs Sunni thing sort of but really that’s kind of all Bs. It’s really about geopolitics and power.

Swear filter blocks lol but sheeeee ite is what I meant. In this instance the States would be allied with the Sunnis (like they essentially have been since 2014 anyway).
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Old 01-28-2024, 03:50 PM   #9
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Quote:
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3 American soldiers killed in North East Jordan by an Iranian drone attack. Biden vows to retaliate
In 3 days or less bombs will go off
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Old 01-28-2024, 03:54 PM   #10
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In 3 days or less bombs will go off
I hate to say this. I hate it.

But you know what? I think asses need to be kicked and I think theres only one Country who can sufficiently kick them.

Let that dog off the chain for a bit so people start thinking twice about pulling this kind of crap.

"Whats that? You want to be an ass? Cool. We're going to park the Gerald Ford off the coast of your biggest port and tell her to 'swing away.' Have fun with that."
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Old 01-28-2024, 04:22 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke View Post
I hate to say this. I hate it.

But you know what? I think asses need to be kicked and I think theres only one Country who can sufficiently kick them.

Let that dog off the chain for a bit so people start thinking twice about pulling this kind of crap.

"Whats that? You want to be an ass? Cool. We're going to park the Gerald Ford off the coast of your biggest port and tell her to 'swing away.' Have fun with that."
I think it's time for a surgical strike inside Iran, The leadership there could care less about the pawns they use but they might think twice if you hit them on their territory.
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Old 01-28-2024, 04:46 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus View Post
I think it's time for a surgical strike inside Iran, The leadership there could care less about the pawns they use but they might think twice if you hit them on their territory.
My biggest worry, beyond WWIII, is that could work towards the Ayatollahs favor. They are at a point where the people are rising up against them, their population trends cannot support their economic model, and their greatest benefactor - Russia - can't support them anymore.

You don't want to play into the hardliners game.
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Old 01-28-2024, 06:01 PM   #13
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Even China is putting pressure on Iran to put pressure on the Houthis to knock it off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2024-01-26/

The Houthis are hard to reason with when most of their population is strung out on Khat 24/7. Khat intoxication is probably the reason they are so aggressive and paranoid all the time. Just watch some of the pressers with Houthi and Yemeni officials. They are the rantings of people not thinking clearly.
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Old 01-28-2024, 06:06 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction View Post
Even China is putting pressure on Iran to put pressure on the Houthis to knock it off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2024-01-26/

The Houthis are hard to reason with when most of their population is strung out on Khat 24/7. Khat intoxication is probably the reason they are so aggressive and paranoid all the time. Just watch some of the pressers with Houthi and Yemeni officials. They are the rantings of people not thinking clearly.
TIL Trump likely does a lot of Khat.
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Old 01-28-2024, 06:06 PM   #15
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And if people arent familiar with the Gerald Ford...



It'll mess you up.
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Old 01-28-2024, 06:18 PM   #16
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The Ford arrived back in Virginia on the 17th though. Other than the Eisenhower, there aren't really any carriers within range of Iran and the Ike has to run through the "Gates of Hell" to get out of the Red Sea.


https://news.usni.org/2024/01/22/usn...-jan-22-2023-2
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Old 01-28-2024, 07:13 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction View Post
Even China is putting pressure on Iran to put pressure on the Houthis to knock it off.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2024-01-26/

The Houthis are hard to reason with when most of their population is strung out on Khat 24/7. Khat intoxication is probably the reason they are so aggressive and paranoid all the time. Just watch some of the pressers with Houthi and Yemeni officials. They are the rantings of people not thinking clearly.
While true and correct about the khat, try to imagine the context these people have been living in for the last 9-10 years, on both sides.

A proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ship their war off to Yemen, a country with a population the size of Canada roughly. 2/3 of the country need humanitarian help, the country had a >50% GDP contraction from 2015-2022, poverty is extreme now, sanitation at all time lows. Health care non-existent, or if it is it’s completely taken up by the folks fighting Iran and Saudi’s war.

Malnutrition rampant, starvation and disease rampant. There is no exaggeration when it is framed as “the worlds worst humanitarian crisis”. The living conditions are horrendous.

The Houthis come along and collect insane taxation levels in areas of their control and what little money is left, local communities pool together to pay teachers to try and avoid having their kids be totally brainwashed by Houthi installed teachers. Horrible, disastrous living conditions for years upon years with dwindling international support since the Ukraine war erupted.

So yeah, I can see why their people would see unhinged, wouldn’t you be? So much death and carnage and suffering in that country, it’s not even the same world we are in, not remotely close. And the world just largely doesn’t care. It’s like you know what Iran / Saudi? If you idiots wanna fight so much why don’t you go fight your fight and stop exporting it to the poor people of Yemen.
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Old 01-30-2024, 08:52 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke View Post
I hate to say this. I hate it.

But you know what? I think asses need to be kicked and I think theres only one Country who can sufficiently kick them.

Let that dog off the chain for a bit so people start thinking twice about pulling this kind of crap.

"Whats that? You want to be an ass? Cool. We're going to park the Gerald Ford off the coast of your biggest port and tell her to 'swing away.' Have fun with that."
I believe the colloquialism you're looking for is "#### around and find out"
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Old 01-30-2024, 09:11 AM   #19
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Ah, tensions in the middle east. I'm shocked, shocked I tell ya.
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Old 01-30-2024, 01:20 PM   #20
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I believe the colloquialism you're looking for is "#### around and find out"
Yeah and I guess what I was alluding to is that they've already ####ed around...its about time to find out.

Play stupid games...win stupid prizes.
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