06-19-2018, 04:50 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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The Framework of a Cup Contender
Looking back at 5 teams that have won Stanley Cups over the last 10 years or so and the framework required for a contender starts to take shape.
At least two elite forwards, 2 more top end Forwards:
Caps: Ovy, Backstrom, Kuznetzov, Oshie
Pens: Crosby, Kessel, Malkin, Hornqvist
Hawks: Toews, Kane, Hossa, Saad
Kings: Kopitar, Carter, Williams, Brown
Bruins: Bergeron, Krecji, Lucic, Horton
A top pairing, all-situation elite d-man:
Caps: Carlson
Pens: Letang
Hawks: Keith
Kings: Doughty
Bruins: Chara
Strong Goaltending:
Caps: Holtby
Pens: Murray/Fleury
Hawks: Crawford
Kings: Quick
Bruins: Thomas
And to top it off these teams all were great at injecting impact players on an ELC to help take them over the top (Vrana, Guentzel, Sheary, Maata, Saad, Teravainen, Pearson, Toffoli, Seguin, Marchand, etc)
When I look at the Flames and compare them to recent cup winners I see a gap at that 2nd elite forward and goaltending (long term). Plus we may have too much invested in our defense at this point.
We have Gaudreau but then Tkachuk, Monahan, Backlund etc all feel like the 3rd / 4th / 5th best forwards on cup winning teams. I actually feel that Kuznetzov taking the next step and becoming that 2nd elite C (with Backstrom) is the reason the Caps finally took that next step this season. The Flames need a forward to take that next step on our roster too.
On defense we have a lot of good pieces but I think it's possible we invest too much there - really Gio, Hamilton, and one of Brodie/Hamonic should be fine filling up the rest with depth pieces.
Here are the last 4 cup winners with D-men listed by Playoff TOI. Not exactly all-star teams 1 through 6.
Caps: Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Kempny, Orpik, Djoos
Pens 17: Dumoulin, Hainsey, Maatta, Schultz, Daley, Cole
Pens 16: Letang, Daley, Dumoulin, Lovejoy. Maatta, Cole
Hawks 15: Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Oduya, Rozsival, Timonen
In terms of impactful ELC players I do think we have cheap depth coming though - Mangiapane, Dube, Philips, Valimaki, Andersson, Kylington, Fox, Parsons, etc all should be able to come in and fill out the 4th line / bottom d-pairing on their ELCs. Contending with Tkachuk on the final year of his ELC this year would be huge too.
In goal Smith is currently the short term solution that is probably good enough but a true #1 long term would be ideal - it remains to be seen if Rittich, Gillies, or Parsons can take the ball and run with it though.
So really the toughest question becomes how do the Flames find that 2nd elite forward (preferably at center) to really push them into the cup contender status? Draft? Trade a d-man? UFA? Internal Growth? IMO that is the biggest thing keeping them from taking the next step right now.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 06-19-2018 at 04:53 PM.
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06-19-2018, 05:11 PM
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#2
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Franchise Player
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I get the feeling you built that to fit your narrative, not the other way around.
Those are all pretty solid D cores. More importantly though, this does not prove that building and having a great D core is not a path to winning.
The Flames need another forward. Yes, this is true, and we all agree. That does not mean that the D is flawed, or 'too talented'.
Great goaltending is a must though. We are going to need that, at some point.
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06-19-2018, 05:21 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Calgary
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It's simple, really. Every cup winner since 2006 has had a better 1C than Monahan. Datsyuk (and Zetterberg).
Getzlaf. Kopitar. Crosby (and Malkin).Toews. Kuznetsov(and Backstrom). Bergeron. Monahan (or Bennett) taking a huge step as a creator is what this team needs more than anythig. As-is, Monahan is close to the likes of Krejci and Carter as a vital, but non-foundational piece for a cup team.
If we can sign Tavares and swap Monahan for an equally elite piece that can better fit a Gaudreau-Tavares-Tkachuk power play (like Brayden Point) we will be a top team. Of course I don't actually expect us to sign Tavares, so our hopes ride on some serious strides from the pieces we have.
__________________
"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
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06-19-2018, 05:53 PM
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#4
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Vancouver
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I’ll be the homer that suggests Jankowski will develop into an elite 2 way center.
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06-19-2018, 06:24 PM
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#5
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I get the feeling you built that to fit your narrative, not the other way around.
Those are all pretty solid D cores. More importantly though, this does not prove that building and having a great D core is not a path to winning.
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So prove it.
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06-19-2018, 08:55 PM
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#6
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
So prove it.
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There have been many cup winning teams with great D cores.
His (or hers) was the assertion, and thus needs proving. Which it did not.
Feel free to attempt to argue that stacking your team with a great defense can't win you a cup. (though I know that you will not, as you prefer fly-by posts)
And save us the cap argument, as it is no more valid for defensemen than it is for forwards: you need several great players to be a great team. And in a cap world, that means you're going to need some of them to be on the cheap.
There is no single formula for building a winner. You need several good players, you need depth, you need scoring, you need defense, you need chemistry, you need luck, and you most definitely need great goaltending.
The exact amounts of those ingredients (and others) can vary.
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06-20-2018, 12:12 AM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I get the feeling you built that to fit your narrative, not the other way around.
Those are all pretty solid D cores. More importantly though, this does not prove that building and having a great D core is not a path to winning.
The Flames need another forward. Yes, this is true, and we all agree. That does not mean that the D is flawed, or 'too talented'.
Great goaltending is a must though. We are going to need that, at some point.
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I never said you didn’t need a solid d-core, of course you do.
All those teams had what I would say were 1 elite d-man, and then two more real good ones. Then some value veterans or cheap young guys to round out the roster.
My point is more that having 5 d-men making $3.5M plus isn’t a cap structure that’s proven to be effective in the last 10 years.
Could the Flames win a cup with a structure like that...it’s possible. Closest team is the Predators getting to the finals and then following it up with a presidents trophy with 5 $2.5M plus d-men.
It just hasn’t been the framework that’s been successful in the last 10 years.
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06-20-2018, 12:30 AM
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#8
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Franchise Player
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How anyone can question the Flames ability to build a balanced roster after years of success boggles the mind
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06-20-2018, 06:56 AM
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#9
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: MOD EDIT: NO
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So how far away is Monahan (healthy) from Toews, Kopitar, Bergeron?
He has to be a defensive stud and post say 70-90pts?
I think the points are doable, but the 2 way play? I'm not sure how I would rate Monahan's defensive zone coverage.
Also, I thought Tkachuk was flirting with elite status before his injury last season, no?
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MOD EDIT: NO!!!
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06-20-2018, 07:49 AM
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#10
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: SW Ontario
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I think you need two high end players that can elevate the others around them, one of which has to be a centre. You need a stud D man and at least one other high end D man with solid D throughout the lineup. I totally disagree with the OP saying you need strong goaltending, while that helps you can win the Cup with average to even below average goaltending. See Osgood, Niemi.
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06-20-2018, 08:52 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
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I think you need to make the playoffs and then get the bounces.
Parity is at such a level in the NHL that every team is flawed to some extent.
The margins are very slim once you make the playoffs.
Build the best team possible and then hope you get the bounces.
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06-20-2018, 01:49 PM
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#12
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
I think you need to make the playoffs and then get the bounces.
Parity is at such a level in the NHL that every team is flawed to some extent.
The margins are very slim once you make the playoffs.
Build the best team possible and then hope you get the bounces.
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Yup - the best team each year rarely wins the championship in any sport, though the NHL tends to have more parity than other leagues right now. The nature of playoffs means there is a large amount of luck involved but people tend to really discount that.
Take this year - In round 1, Washington was down 2-0 and in OT. They could've been down 3-0 with one bounce going CBJ's way and likely would have not made it through the first round. That's why I discount the "this is how you win in the playoffs" stories because I'm a firm believer that it is heavily reliant on luck.
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06-20-2018, 02:36 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Calgary, AB
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Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk as elite forwards. Missing 1-2 more really good forwards which they can address by trade or UFA. Besides Tkachuk for 1 more year we don't have really good young forwards on cheap entry level contracts.
Giordano, Hamilton is really good top pairing. None of them alone are Keith, Doughty, Chara, Letang but I'd put them with Carlson. Issue is can Brodie and Hamonic build a good top 4 after falling short last season. Could Valimaki or Andersson on entry level contracts help the defense at low cap hit?
Mike Smith is a good goalie but issue is he is older and last season of contract. I also wouldn't put him there with Quick, Thomas, Crawford, Holtby. Can Parsons or Gillies step in and become a Matt Murray in a few seasons?
Flames have a good base but a lot of holes to fill not just to become a contender but first to become a consistent team that will make the playoffs.
Last edited by pepper24; 06-20-2018 at 02:38 PM.
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06-20-2018, 02:57 PM
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#14
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#1 Goaltender
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Flames need to build a legit playoff contender first haha
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