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Old 11-25-2020, 11:24 AM   #5921
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I think people underestimate the complexity of constructing a vaccine production facility. We would have had to break ground before the pandemic began to be in any shape to produce vaccines for 2021. We were probably boned from the get go.
Absolutely. Government could save themselves a lot of pain if they laid out a plan to remediate that deficiency for the next pandemic.

Last edited by peter12; 11-25-2020 at 11:27 AM.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:24 AM   #5922
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The crazy thing is that there is a church in Calgary that has a higher seating capacity than the Jube??!! Holy cows!



What kinda church is this? They don't even make them sit on hard wooden pews? Where is the suffering?
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:24 AM   #5923
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Feels like we're being prepared for an announcement that Canada won't see a vaccine delivery until late next year.
Talk about someone on a pre-recorded loop..... There is ZERO chance of that happening. Maybe if we were partnered with 1 drug company and not 8.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:26 AM   #5924
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I just don't see how this can really be enforced. If there is little to no spread in bars and restaurants it's not much of an issue but with so much unknown spread how do they know?
Many of the people who's had minimum wage reduced are now expected to confirm with patrons that they are related to each other.

Will blood tests and Ancestry.com and 23&Me kits to be fully on hand to administer before eating the appetizer?

Will they be willing to kick out people who forgot their IDs that would otherwise absolutely confirm up to six people are living in the same household?

Will all of this be taking place without removing PPE?

This seems like it's not going to go well.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:26 AM   #5925
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How are they going to enforce same household in bars and restaurants? Do the wait staff have to ask for ID with the same address on it? How diligent are they going to be when this is their lively hood. What about people who live alone and can have 2 cohorts...how does that get monitored.
Sure some people will break the rules, but societal pressure is real and many people will follow the rules despite the fact that they probably could go to the bar and not get in trouble.

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I just don't see how this can really be enforced. If there is little to no spread in bars and restaurants it's not much of an issue but with so much unknown spread how do they know?

Seems like a bit of a non-measure dressed up as a measure.
The untraced cases are just because the sheer number of cases has exceeded AHS' ability to track contacts. While it is theoretically possible that the 80% of unknown cases is from bars, more likely those cases have the same distribution of sources as the 20% that are known. Its like when they call an election after counting only some of the votes. If you have info on the 20%, you can make relatively good assumptions on the unknown 80%.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:27 AM   #5926
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Absolutely.
Are you kidding man? In March you were even doubting if this was a real disease?

Where were your 20 posts a day complaining about Canada's lack of vaccine production back then?
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:29 AM   #5927
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What kinda church is this? They don't even make them sit on hard wooden pews? Where is the suffering?
What a ####ing colossal waste of money.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:29 AM   #5928
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Are you kidding man? In March you were even doubting if this was a real disease?

Where were your 20 posts a day complaining about Canada's lack of vaccine production back then?
Excuse me, I never doubted how real this disease was. I doubted the veracity of the accounts that some posters were putting in this thread without verification. The dead children in a sheet is one that comes to mind - something that we now know was false, fake news, and designed to whip up panic.

I have routinely been critical of government's response to this pandemic. So give me a break and use your head.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:33 AM   #5929
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Sure some people will break the rules, but societal pressure is real and many people will follow the rules despite the fact that they probably could go to the bar and not get in trouble.



The untraced cases are just because the sheer number of cases has exceeded AHS' ability to track contacts. While it is theoretically possible that the 80% of unknown cases is from bars, more likely those cases have the same distribution of sources as the 20% that are known. Its like when they call an election after counting only some of the votes. If you have info on the 20%, you can make relatively good assumptions on the unknown 80%.
Here is what Dr. Hinshaw said last week:

Quote:
  • 40% of all cases are linked to households, gathering or private event.
  • 10% are continuing care.
  • 4% to child care/schools.
  • 3% are acute care outbreaks.
  • 30% remain unknown.
https://www.660citynews.com/2020/11/...alth-measures/
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:35 AM   #5930
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Excuse me, I never doubted how real this disease was. I doubted the veracity of the accounts that some posters were putting in this thread without verification. The dead children in a sheet is one that comes to mind - something that we now know was false, fake news, and designed to whip up panic.

I have routinely been critical of government's response to this pandemic. So give me a break and use your head.
They procured over half a billion doses from every major pharmaceutical. And with you agreeing that we would have been building a production factory in 2019 in order to produce today what is the effing complaint?
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:37 AM   #5931
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They procured over half a billion doses from every major pharmaceutical. And with you agreeing that we would have been building a production factory in 2019 in order to produce today what is the effing complaint?
It's fine. It's over your head. Carry on.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:40 AM   #5932
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What? Trudeau has said "We’re expecting to start receiving those doses in the first few months of 2021."


https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...first-doses-of

On the radio this morning they said late this year and early 2021.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:40 AM   #5933
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With respect to enforcement of laws like this, the social stigma does more to enforce the regulations than anything. They will give the direction to City Traffic Officers, ByLaw officers, Police Fish and WIldlife, Sherrifs to go hard and get some tickets out the door so that it can hit the news cycle. A few outlets pick up the story of a party of 25 year olds all getting $1K tickets and a few anti maskers get tickets and all of a sudden, that percentage of the population that are basically law abiding but want to be cheeky or selfish will smarten up. The fringe skidders who aren't going to comply no matter what will always be there.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:41 AM   #5934
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It's fine. It's over your head. Carry on.
Of course you can't come back with anything.

Spoken like a guy who can't get out of his prerecorded loop... now thank my post. haha
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:45 AM   #5935
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Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov View Post
Are you kidding man? In March you were even doubting if this was a real disease?

Where were your 20 posts a day complaining about Canada's lack of vaccine production back then?

Write opposing opinions early on. Any time new information comes out, cite the post where you were correct. “Hey, 230 days ago I was right, see!”. Delete post from 231 days ago.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:45 AM   #5936
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Talk about someone on a pre-recorded loop..... There is ZERO chance of that happening. Maybe if we were partnered with 1 drug company and not 8.
I would say there's a pretty reasonable chance that the majority of Canadians aren't vaccinated until August/September next year....it may be splitting hairs, but there's a long way to go when you consider the best case scenario is currently for Alberta to have 650k doses in Q1. The rest aren't magically showing up a few weeks later.

It's likely going to be a trickle of a few million here and a few million there after that. It's best we all get used to the idea that Canada is simply going to have to wait a little longer than some of our G20 peers. I don't think there's a whole lot more the Liberals could have done up until now so it is what it is.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:47 AM   #5937
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I would say there's a pretty reasonable chance that the majority of Canadians aren't vaccinated until August/September next year....it may be splitting hairs, but there's a long way to go when you consider the best case scenario is currently for Alberta to have 650k doses in Q1. The rest aren't magically showing up a few weeks later.

It's likely going to be a trickle of a few million here and a few million there after that. It's best we all get used to the idea that Canada is simply going to have to wait a little longer than some of our G20 peers. I don't think there's a whole lot more the Liberals could have done up until now so it is what it is.
Three things:

1) Get the NRC working on producing a licensed version of the AZ vaccine. Even if the doses are marginal, get them out to the healthcare system ASAP.

2) Be honest about Canadian deficiencies. Don't hide behind slogans and lame appeals to patriotism (so effective on so many here).

3) Come up with a fully transparent plan to do better.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:49 AM   #5938
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A few outlets pick up the story of a party of 25 year olds all getting $1K tickets and a few anti maskers get tickets and all of a sudden, that percentage of the population that are basically law abiding but want to be cheeky or selfish will smarten up.
To be honest, the people they need to hit with high-profile tickets is middle-aged suburban families having Sunday dinner together. Easy to blame 25 year olds having a party for spread, but it seems clear it's 'normal' people still entertaining with friends and extended family who are the main source of contagion.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:49 AM   #5939
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I would say there's a pretty reasonable chance that the majority of Canadians aren't vaccinated until August/September next year....it may be splitting hairs, but there's a long way to go when you consider the best case scenario is currently for Alberta to have 650k doses in Q1. The rest aren't magically showing up a few weeks later.

It's likely going to be a trickle of a few million here and a few million there after that. It's best we all get used to the idea that Canada is simply going to have to wait a little longer than some of our G20 peers. I don't think there's a whole lot more the Liberals could have done up until now so it is what it is.
Yeah but he just spouted late next year so Nov/Dec 2021 without any sources.

Here is an article today from Macleans' with Health Canada's top Medical Advisor.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...ll-you-get-it/

Quote:
Q: When you say it won’t be a large gap, does that mean days? Weeks?
A: We’re hoping that by January, at the earliest, we may be starting to immunize people. That means authorization is done. Logistics is sorted. And, most importantly, there has to be a vaccine to be distributed.

We’re all gearing towards having vaccinations happen in the first quarter of 2021. But it can happen earlier if things move faster. It can also be later if issues come up.
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Old 11-25-2020, 11:49 AM   #5940
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Here is what Dr. Hinshaw said last week:

https://www.660citynews.com/2020/11/...alth-measures/
I'm not sure you can make those assumptions. If it was a random sample, then yes. But if you only know the case sources because you can contact trace them, because they are in an environment that facilitates that, then your data is going to be greatly skewed.

Lets say 50% of known cases were from a specific school, and they could trace most of those. That's 10% of cases(half the 20% known). But that doesn't mean you can pro-rate the unknown data to say 50% of it was also at that school. It may be that the unknown cases have always been coming from somewhere difficult to trace, like, say +15's, or transit.

So I don't think you can make good assumptions based on what you know, about what you don't know. It's not like polling a small population for politics, and then pro-rating that across the population, maybe with minor biases. It's completely different.
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