08-20-2021, 09:59 AM
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#42
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
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If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by kurwamac
you should look in the mirror and worry about yourself.. you fight for scraps in Canada - I've got it made keep tap dancing for a bunch of guys son - I've got it good where it counts boy
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08-20-2021, 10:03 AM
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#43
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FBI
What I like about these charts is that they seem to mostly match the eye test
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They seem to match the eye test much better for forwards than defensemen.
Phaneuf: 90
Regehr: 10
Butler: 33
Hale: 44
And while this is obviously a small sample size, I have had that impression for a while. I think that part of it is that it does a better job evaluating and ranking offense than defense.
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08-20-2021, 10:03 AM
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#44
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
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Going by last ten games of the season (arbitrary but I think that's close to when that line was formed).
Ranking centers ...
CF% 10th
xGF% 14th
HDCF% 22nd
Pts60 25th
Interesting to note that Backlund was right there at the end too ... 31st in CF%, 13th in xGF% and 6th in HDCF%
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08-20-2021, 10:03 AM
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#45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VilleN
If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?
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I believe it is the WAR over the 3 year period being considered
Last year the finishing number took a nosedive
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08-20-2021, 10:08 AM
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#46
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VilleN
If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?
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The average ... by looking 97 86 74 ... average 86
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08-20-2021, 10:13 AM
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#47
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First Line Centre
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All right some quick requests:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samonadreau
Interested to see some numbers from Lindholm.
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The marvelous Elias Lindholm:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
Can we post Duncan Keith again just for fun?
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Duncan Keith for fun:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx
I don't think that card is fair to Regehr. That's near the end of his career when he could barely skate.
I want to see a card for 2007 Regehr.
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Strange Brew nailed it: That was illustrating at time of trade, as with Phaneuf's. RTSS data isn't available before 2007-08 so 2006-07 Regehr isn't available. However, here is 2008 Regehr (sample size warning), 2009 Regehr (two-year weighted), and 2010 Regehr (full three-year weighted). Also finish line Regehr to bookend things.
__________________
"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
"You ain't gotta like me. You're just mad 'cause I tell it how it is and you tell it how it might be."
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08-20-2021, 10:17 AM
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#48
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by united
All right some quick requests:
The marvelous Elias Lindholm:
Duncan Keith for fun:
Strange Brew nailed it: That was illustrating at time of trade, as with Phaneuf's. RTSS data isn't available before 2007-08 so 2006-07 Regehr isn't available. However, here is 2008 Regehr (sample size warning), 2009 Regehr (two-year weighted), and 2010 Regehr (full three-year weighted). Also finish line Regehr to bookend things.
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Interesting stuff for Regehr. I am surprised his EV defensive impact in 2008 wasn't nearly as large as I thought.
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08-20-2021, 10:57 AM
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#49
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
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This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:
Quote:
This team is not built for a rebuild, but it’s hard to envision how this core could realistically win a Stanley Cup. There’s potential for some real awkwardness at the expansion draft since Giordano is the natural exposure, and Gaudreau’s future with the franchise is legitimately in doubt considering he has only one year left on his contract. Would they even be able to move Monahan if they wanted to? General manager Brad Treliving will have to navigate some rocky waters and really think about where this team will be in two years if he doesn’t start making changes right away.
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Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.
I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
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08-20-2021, 11:06 AM
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#50
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
The average ... by looking 97 86 74 ... average 86
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This is not correct. It is a three-year weighted average, adjusted for age, relative to other players at the position.
__________________
"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
"You ain't gotta like me. You're just mad 'cause I tell it how it is and you tell it how it might be."
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08-20-2021, 11:08 AM
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#51
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Going by last ten games of the season (arbitrary but I think that's close to when that line was formed).
Ranking centers ...
CF% 10th
xGF% 14th
HDCF% 22nd
Pts60 25th
Interesting to note that Backlund was right there at the end too ... 31st in CF%, 13th in xGF% and 6th in HDCF%
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Dude. The last 10 games were exhibition games for losers. That is not arbitrary that is playing the last 8 games against teams that were waiting for the playoffs or just going through the motions to get out of the season.
It is not likely that the Flames will have 8 games over this coming seasons 82 games that will have as disinterested in winning opposition.
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08-20-2021, 11:09 AM
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#52
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#1 Goaltender
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Can someone do Nakladal?
Because it was VERY strange how good he looked but never got another sniff, curious to see if the stats match the eye test there
The Dawes buyout is so strange. His cap hit was almost league min and he was elite in the shootout
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08-20-2021, 11:23 AM
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#53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:
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Um, no. It doesn’t
Quote:
Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.
I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
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Not even remotely correct
The article noted that Gio, Andersson, Tkachuk, Monahan and Markstrom all had bad years. That’s 5 key guys
The Flames are a bubble team that had xGF and xGA that were better than their actuals
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08-20-2021, 11:31 AM
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#54
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:
Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.
I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
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That wouldn't be my conclusion.
Analytics matter because they track how a team plays. If you're getting 40% of the shot attempts and scoring chances you're just not a good hockey team, but may be getting bailed out by your goaltending and/or finishing.
The Oilers have high finish rates because of their star power, and their offensive lean (blowing the zone / employing defenders that don't defend).
That's likely sustainable because that's what they are.
The Flames under Sutter were a dominant analytics team without the finish, and without the save. When that happens the analytics aren't wrong, nor would I say they don't matter ... but the talent wasn't there to do the "average" job expected from what you created and what you gave up.
Not a rosy picture for the Flames unless you thought there was some bad puck luck etc factoring.
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08-20-2021, 11:34 AM
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#55
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
Dude. The last 10 games were exhibition games for losers. That is not arbitrary that is playing the last 8 games against teams that were waiting for the playoffs or just going through the motions to get out of the season.
It is not likely that the Flames will have 8 games over this coming seasons 82 games that will have as disinterested in winning opposition.
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But beyond that what are you trying to say? Someone asked how he finished with better linemates and I gave him the data. Didn't make any projections forward to next season etc at all.
You're talking into a mirror.
Anyone else hate "Dude" or "Bud"? ... gives me the shivers
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08-20-2021, 11:36 AM
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#56
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First Line Centre
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Some notes for those unfamiliar:
- Percentiles are not linear! The difference between a 90th percentile player and an 80th percentile player is much larger than the difference between 80 and 70, or 55 and 45. Good illustration here:
- Patrick Bacon found that Replacement level is 19%. That is, anyone below 19% adds negative value to the lineup.
- The absolute worst players in the league are almost as detrimental to a team as the best players are positive.
- One-dimensional defensive defenceman and forwards are nearly always underrated by these metrics, but not to a huge extent. The opposite for one-dimensional offensive talents.
- With hockey following a Pareto distribution of 19/81, the rule of thumb is the top 20% of players in the league contribute 80% of the wins. Pro-rated to an equal team level, the top 4 players on each team account for 80% of the team's relative strength.
- With that in mind, it is extremely difficult to become a legitimate contender without high-end talent, particularly at the centre position.
- Free agent splashes on mid-roster players seldom live up to their contract because they get premium money for middling performance, especially once accounting for age curves. Well managed teams identify these players before they become "mainstream" to extract maximum value. Poorly run teams pay a premium for past performance, often to declining players. July 1, 2016 is the perfect example of this.
- Do nearly whatever it takes to obtain and retain elite talent, and surround them with cost-effective two-way depth. Paying elite money, especially with term, for non-elite players is, by far, the most sub-optimal move a team can make (Hi, Darnell Nurse!).
__________________
"I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?"
Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
"You ain't gotta like me. You're just mad 'cause I tell it how it is and you tell it how it might be."
Last edited by united; 08-20-2021 at 11:38 AM.
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08-20-2021, 11:38 AM
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#57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
That wouldn't be my conclusion.
Analytics matter because they track how a team plays. If you're getting 40% of the shot attempts and scoring chances you're just not a good hockey team, but may be getting bailed out by your goaltending and/or finishing.
The Oilers have high finish rates because of their star power, and their offensive lean (blowing the zone / employing defenders that don't defend).
That's likely sustainable because that's what they are.
The Flames under Sutter were a dominant analytics team without the finish, and without the save. When that happens the analytics aren't wrong, nor would I say they don't matter ... but the talent wasn't there to do the "average" job expected from what you created and what you gave up.
Not a rosy picture for the Flames unless you thought there was some bad puck luck etc factoring.
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It could be rosy if you look at the guys singled out and believe that
- Tkachuk’s finishing numbers (which were low for whatever reason) revert to the mean
- Monahan who was known to be injured rebounds
- Markstrom returns to form
- Andersson is somewhere between where he was last year and the previous
- that Darryl can help with some of the above
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08-20-2021, 11:39 AM
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#58
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Calgary
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It would be neat if it was possible to do an aggregate of these stats for the whole team over the last 7 yrs to have some sort of statistical measure of how Treliving is actually doing with the team. Id love to compare it to some of Sutter's teams to. It could actually lend some validity to the job he is doing or not doing well.
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08-20-2021, 11:43 AM
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#59
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
But beyond that what are you trying to say? Someone asked how he finished with better linemates and I gave him the data. Didn't make any projections forward to next season etc at all.
You're talking into a mirror.
Anyone else hate "Dude" or "Bud"? ... gives me the shivers
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Sorry about Dude. I thought Bongo was trite.
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08-20-2021, 11:45 AM
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#60
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
It could be rosy if you look at the guys singled out and believe that
- Tkachuk’s finishing numbers (which were low for whatever reason) revert to the mean
- Monahan who was known to be injured rebounds
- Markstrom returns to form
- Andersson is somewhere between where he was last year and the previous
- that Darryl can help with some of the above
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Absolutely.
And I think we see some of that. Honestly not a lot went right last year outside of Tanev and Hanifin popping.
Probably a mixed bag of some working out and some not, but guessing the happy count will be higher this season than last ... especially with the Sutter factor being a huge one.
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