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Old 07-20-2019, 02:55 PM   #21
Jiggy_12
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This is very premature.

Unless you can accurately forecast every trade and signing between now and then.
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Old 07-20-2019, 02:59 PM   #22
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So you started another thread two years in advance of the draft to make a backhanded complaint about the trade?
haha you got me
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:04 PM   #23
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Lucic will waive, and if he doesnt and it makes sense to buy him out at that time it will only be 2 years
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:09 PM   #24
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Came in looking for a time machine. Leaving disappointed.
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:15 PM   #25
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The more I think of it, I believe it won’t be a problem. Realistically he realizes that he and his contract won’t be selected and he waives. If Lucic in 2019 is bad, him in 2021 won’t be pretty
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:28 PM   #26
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There is no chance Lucic will be protected in the expansion draft so can we stop with the chicken little BS? Is that too much to ask for the next 2 years????
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:34 PM   #27
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Why does anyone think that Lucic will have to be protected because he has a NMC? Pretty much everyone of consequence with a NMC last expansion draft waived it.
As far as I can tell, only Fleury and Enstrom waived their NMCs for the Vegas draft.


As of November 2016, there were 66 players who had contracts that required protection: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...ins-surprises/

Most were players who were never going to be left unprotected regardless of their NMCs (Crosby, Kane, Kopitar, etc). Three players were given exemptions due to long-term injuries (Clarkson, Clowe, and Horton). Two were bought out prior to the draft (Beauchemin and Girardi).

Except for Enstrom and Fleury, all other players who had NMCs that required protection were protected. Other than Phaneuf, we don't know if any of the other players were asked (formally or informally) to waive and refused.
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Old 07-20-2019, 03:37 PM   #28
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Phaneuf didn't
Phaneuf was still sort of good before the last expansion draft. He had reason to think Vegas would take him.

Lucic is not going to be in that same position. Seattle is not bypassing Kylington/Andersson/Hanifin for 34 year old Milan Lucic.

Vegas didn't draft everybody else's bad contracts and tank - they drafted the best player from each team they could find, and they have two playoff appearances and a trip to the finals in their inaugural season to show for it.

Seattle wants to emulate that. They won't do it by drafting Milan Lucic.
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Old 07-21-2019, 01:12 AM   #29
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Lucic won’t even be the biggest issue in that draft, it’s going to be, do you protect your Captain Giordano, who presumably will not be as good anymore and will still have one year left but is still the heart and soul of the team.

I think that will be the bigger discussion point.
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Old 07-21-2019, 01:41 AM   #30
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All teams will lose a player. One player. Chances are a fairly middling to good player.

Team pockets a share of the expansion fee.
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Old 07-21-2019, 04:47 AM   #31
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Lucic should just come out and say he will waive for the expansion draft. Create instant goodwill amongst the fans. Start the relationship off on a positive note.


Seattle isn’t going to claim him
Like hell he should. It’s 2 years away. He should tell the fans he will play so great the team will want to protect him.

This expansion draft angst is over the top IMO.
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Old 07-21-2019, 06:12 AM   #32
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Obviously we have big bad Milan Lucic as our #1 protected forward due to his no movement clause and the fact that we have to protect him due to that clause. If he's not on your list then your list is wrong. It's already been confirmed that the Flames will be honoring his NMC. Speculating that he will waive to go to Seattle is just that, speculation.
Speculating that he won't is also speculation. And tautologies are tautologies.
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Old 07-21-2019, 06:58 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by goflamesgo18 View Post
Lucic will waive, and if he doesnt and it makes sense to buy him out at that time it will only be 2 years


He can’t be bought out because of the NMC.


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Old 07-21-2019, 07:19 AM   #34
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He can’t be bought out because of the NMC.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
You can buy out NMC’s

The problem with Lucic’s is how much of his salary is paid in signing bonuses. So when he is bought out you actually don’t save any cap hit in his contract years. I typed this out in the other thread but here it is again for reference:

If he is bought out next summer, his cap hits are:

20/21: $5,500,000
21/22: $4,000,000
22/23: $5,500,000
2023 through to end of 2026: $500,000

Bought out summer 2021:
21/22: $4,083,333
22/23: $5,583,333
2023 through to end of 2025: $583,333

Bought out summer 2022:
22/23: $5,333,333
23/24: $333,333
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Old 07-21-2019, 07:54 AM   #35
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Yeah the worry about this is just dumb.

Even if he does waive....Francis isn't going to pick the guy because Lucic can't play anymore.

Why would Seattle want him instead of every other guy on the Flames list who is/will be a better player?

Nope Lucic will likely be a Flame the whole 4 years and based on a large recent sample size, if he plays all 328 regular season games, we can look forward to a whopping 19 to 31 goals from him in that time frame. He might have really good advanced stats though...so there is that! And yup... he will "hit" guys when he can catch them.

Oh, and as a bonus...get little to no savings if they want to buy him out from that kind of stellar contribution.
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Old 07-21-2019, 08:13 AM   #36
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If Giordano is still playing at a Norris level and the Flames are a playoff team, it will be hard to leave him unprotected.


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Originally Posted by goflamesgo18 View Post
Lucic will waive, and if he doesnt and it makes sense to buy him out at that time it will only be 2 years
Oh yeah, that makes sense. Flames won't save much in terms of salary for a buyout but there's no way they let Lucic cost them Rasmus Andersson or something.

I think Flames go 4-4 without Lucic

Forwards: Monahan, Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Lindholm
Defense: Gio, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki

Key exposed players: Backlund, Dube, Bennett, Kylington, Hamonic?

7-3 with Lucic

Forwards: Monahan, Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Backlund, Dube, Lucic
Defense: Gio, Valimaki, Andersson

Key exposed players: Hanifin, Bennett, Kylington, Hamonic?

TBH all these players are similar value, so no matter the configuration, with or without protecting Lucic, we're gonna lose someone around the same level.

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Old 07-21-2019, 08:25 AM   #37
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Yeah the worry about this is just dumb.

Even if he does waive....Francis isn't going to pick the guy because Lucic can't play anymore.

Why would Seattle want him instead of every other guy on the Flames list who is/will be a better player?

Nope Lucic will likely be a Flame the whole 4 years and based on a large recent sample size, if he plays all 328 regular season games, we can look forward to a whopping 19 to 31 goals from him in that time frame. He might have really good advanced stats though...so there is that! And yup... he will "hit" guys when he can catch them.

Oh, and as a bonus...get little to no savings if they want to buy him out from that kind of stellar contribution.

I'm not too fussed about the expansion draft because so much can happen between now and then, but the concern was not that he'd be taken, it was having to expose someone else. If it was today, for example you'd likely expose Bennett and Mangiapane whereas if he waived you could protect one of those guys. However, IMO, the D are more at risk anyway.
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Old 07-21-2019, 08:28 AM   #38
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I'm not too fussed about the expansion draft because so much can happen between now and then, but the concern was not that he'd be taken, it was having to expose someone else. If it was today, for example you'd likely expose Bennett and Mangiapane whereas if he waived you could protect one of those guys. However, IMO, the D are more at risk anyway.
I think no matter what, we're gonna have to expose Bennett and Mangiapane, Dube and Mangiapane or Dube and Bennett.
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Old 07-21-2019, 08:30 AM   #39
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Yeah the worry about this is just dumb.

Even if he does waive....Francis isn't going to pick the guy because Lucic can't play anymore.

Why would Seattle want him instead of every other guy on the Flames list who is/will be a better player?

Nope Lucic will likely be a Flame the whole 4 years and based on a large recent sample size, if he plays all 328 regular season games, we can look forward to a whopping 19 to 31 goals from him in that time frame. He might have really good advanced stats though...so there is that! And yup... he will "hit" guys when he can catch them.

Oh, and as a bonus...get little to no savings if they want to buy him out from that kind of stellar contribution.
While I agree the worry is unnecessary, you’re not really getting the potential issue. It’s not that Seattle would pick him. It’s that Calgary is forced to protect him, using up one of their protection spots and thereby exposing a player they otherwise would not have.

And I’m glad Lucic has a contract that provides little to no buyout relief. Buying out Brouwer is a part of this whole mess.
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Old 07-21-2019, 08:32 AM   #40
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I think no matter what, we're gonna have to expose Bennett and Mangiapane, Dube and Mangiapane or Dube and Bennett.
Depends on whether they go 7-3 FvD or 8 skaters. I haven't worked out if Dube would be eligible or not, though.
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