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View Poll Results: What do you think of the trade after a week of getting your head around it?
Love it, think Lucic is an upgrade 109 16.80%
Like it, clears some cap space even if Lucic is no better 197 30.35%
Indifferent, both teams getting a failed project 187 28.81%
Dislike it, Neal needed another year to bounce back 107 16.49%
Hate it, Neal will be better in Edmonton 49 7.55%
Voters: 649. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-27-2019, 02:41 PM   #2761
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The funniest exercise yet for me is comparing "opportunity" or "role" for each player.

For Neal it's pretty easy.

You add up the time he played with any of the clear cut top six forwards; in this case five skaters (Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Backlund) though cases could be made for Frolik and maybe even Derek Ryan.

Those five forwards are 1-5 in terms of total ice time but also average ice time per game; not much argument against using them as "opportunity" measures.

Then you go to the Oiler side.

They don't have five guys that represent opportunity. They have three. Lucic's time with McDavid, Draisaitl and NH is obvious but if you extend the analysis you have to include that huge opportunity to play with Alex Chiasson and Zack Kassian too.

Too funny.
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Old 07-27-2019, 04:37 PM   #2762
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I think knowing the mean as opposed to the average would be more telling.

But peaking shouldn’t just mean scoreboard production. I look at guys like Yzerman as an example. He became a more effective player later even if his production dropped a little.
Mean is average I believe. Maybe "median as opposed to average" is what you meant?
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Old 07-27-2019, 04:54 PM   #2763
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What is the condition on the 3rd round pick?
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Old 07-27-2019, 04:57 PM   #2764
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What is the condition on the 3rd round pick?
Both of the following must occur for the pick to be transferred to Calgary:

1) James Neal scores at least 21 goals in 2019-20
2) Milan Lucic scores at least 10 fewer goals than Neal in 2019-20
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Old 07-27-2019, 05:36 PM   #2765
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Both of the following must occur for the pick to be transferred to Calgary:

1) James Neal scores at least 21 goals in 2019-20
2) Milan Lucic scores at least 10 fewer goals than Neal in 2019-20
3) Treliving has to give Holland a foot rub.
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Old 07-27-2019, 05:42 PM   #2766
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Some people think way too highly of the buyout option. Like you just do it and he's gone. But you buy him out now or next summer and you're stuck with that cap penalty forever. It does screw the Flames a bit once there's only one year left on the contract and I agree the sweetener could have been a tad sweeter but unfortunately there is no more Chia. In the end Lucic addresses a weakness for a cheaper price and Neal brings less than nothing.
For sure. Like the trade or not, a buyout was never a real option for me. Keeping him on the books for another 8 years? No way, sorry
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Old 07-27-2019, 05:43 PM   #2767
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Originally Posted by TheScorpion View Post
Both of the following must occur for the pick to be transferred to Calgary:

1) James Neal scores at least 21 goals in 2019-20
2) Milan Lucic scores at least 10 fewer goals than Neal in 2019-20
So basically, just forget about the pick entirely
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Old 07-27-2019, 08:00 PM   #2768
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So basically, just forget about the pick entirely
Oh I don't know.

Neal has scored 21+ goals 10 times in last 11 seasons, plus he's likely going to get every possible chance to succeed because Oilers are paying him 6.5M basicly, and he probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder from last season. Plus Oilers top forwards tend to have inflated personal stats because they're relied upon so much to score. (I mean, Draisaitl is good, but not 50 goals good.)

It would not surprise me one bit if Neal hits 21. It would not surprise me if Neal hits 30+. After all, Alex Chiasson got 22 goals playing in the spot Neal is likely given. (Chiassons previous career high was 13.)

On the other hand, Lucic is likely going to be playing smallish minutes in our bottom 6.
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Old 07-27-2019, 11:52 PM   #2769
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^ I wouldn’t be so sure
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Old 07-28-2019, 12:00 AM   #2770
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I'll be mildly surprised if James Neal scores 30 goals total over the rest of his career
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Old 07-28-2019, 03:08 PM   #2771
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I'll be mildly surprised if James Neal scores 30 goals total over the rest of his career
Think we'll see a Wideman type end for Neal, one bounce back season, the rest garbage.

Also this thread and its subsequent threads are insane by the way guys. Some of you need to log out for the weekends and enjoy the sun. Reading a couple pages here and there today is nauseating.
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Old 07-29-2019, 09:48 AM   #2772
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for some reason it won't let me link quote, but replying to Matt Reeeed's post 2740..


I think you comparing apples to oranges here. I think it is most reasonable to compare them equally


If both players play out the contract, the flames save $500k year relative to no trade.


By my Calculations (summarized below) if both get bought out next year the Flames have a net cost of $0.3mm over the life of the contract/buyout.

Depending on when you start it the cap has raised between 3.5%/yr if you start in 2013-14, down to 1.3% if you go just last year, and approximately 2.8% if you pick any year between that as your start date.

Because of Edmonton retaining salary, and including the $0.5mm the Flames save and Oilers add next year compared to no deal, if both get bought out next year, the total hit to both teams is approximately:

Lucic
  • CGY: $14.0mm
  • EDM: $2.1mm
Neal
  • CGY: $0
  • EDM: $12.0mm
NPV@1.3%
  • CGY: $13.5mm
  • EDM: $13.5mm
NPV@3.5%
  • CGY: $12.9mm
  • EDM: $12.6mm
The other thing that has to be considered is the Flames would "only" have a $0.5mm hit on the books for three years starting in 2023-24 when they have to start resigning Gaudreau, etc where as the Oilers will have $2mm in dead cap, and from everything I have seen teams don't want the long term hit (why a 2 yr buyout is more palpable then a 8 year one).

Considering the potential fit benefits, I would say Tre did very well on this one.
Thanks for this - and appreciate the thoughtful reply. A few counterpoints from me.




On the discount rate:

-looking at the last 1-2 years is not a fair estimator, because the cap hasn't been rising as quickly as league revenues are, because escrow has been inflated. The last two years small growth is a "catch-up", and not a long term forecaster

-Since 2013 I have an average growth rate of 4.5%, which is a better reflection of league revenue growth... this feels like a "minimum" to me, in that league revenues have been poorly impacted by the CAD dollar decline

-I think going forward, with the introduction of new stadiums, new teams in strong areas, and the catch-up of escrow to appropriate percentages, we should go back to seeing revenue growth and the cap moving up together hand in hand at an appropriate growth rate. Looking at trends in other sports, and historical trends, we could easily see the growth rate mirror similar economic growth rates (something like 7%) - which stems from what customers are able to pay based on their own income growth.

At a 4.5% rate, I have the buyout at a cap PV of about 13M, vs. Lucic at $20M. If we changed that closer to 7%, the change widens slightly.

With that said, that difference translates to about $1.6M a year... so not a horrendous difference by any means. Lucic could potentially return that on ice value, and that looks like what the bet is.

However, if Lucic were a free agent, I likely wouldn't be interested in entertaining a 4 year deal at $1.6M.... feels like a bit of a throwaway of small dollar terms. I think you could get similar reclamation projects without future year guarantees, at under $1M guaranteed, or simply hand the roster spot to a younger player.

Point being, you have to see some value in Lucic to pursue this deal.... if the thought it that is that this is a good trade with Lucic playing at a replacement level ability, then I do think the buyout was the superior option from a cap perspective.... and that this transaction was hardly the only option.

At 31, Lucic in theory should not be completely murdered on the age curve. Him declining was not expected, but I was surprised he has been essentially replacement level for 2 years now. I think the circumstances in Edmonton were not favourable to his style. He can still win puck battles, retrieve the puck, and not be a detriment defensively. But none of that really matters when you retrieve the puck and your linemates are even more hapless offensively. I see a chance for a modest uptick in Calgary returning to having NHL linemates.... my bigger question is whether he can sustain that for 4 years as he falls more on the age curve.... and the lack of a buyout option on his particular contract I would argue could have more dire consequences than simply pulling the plug on the Neal deal via a buyout.... and that's why I call this a sunk cost fallacy... continue to invest on a contract with a horrible chance for any ROI because we don't simply want to throw our hat in due to the optics of a buyout.
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:28 PM   #2773
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Lucic about to go on 960 to talk with Ryan Pinder.

This should be...an interview?
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:37 PM   #2774
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Not the most articulate player.
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:38 PM   #2775
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Interesting how he thinks he tried to be too much in Edmonton in a leader, goal scorer, enforcer, etc. Too much on his plate he said.
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:41 PM   #2776
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Not like Edmonton management or coaches to put too much pressure on a particular player. Weird.

/s

Also, is he doing this interview through a can tied to a string? Hard to hear him.
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Old 08-01-2019, 02:42 PM   #2777
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Good news, Flames have enough leadership, dont need any more. If Lucic can pot a few more goals thatd be neat. Otherwise focus on keeping the other team accountable and dont be a liability.
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Old 08-01-2019, 10:54 PM   #2778
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Interesting how he thinks he tried to be too much in Edmonton in a leader, goal scorer, enforcer, etc. Too much on his plate he said.
Comments from Ference a year or two after he left pretty much confirm that the Oilers expect vets to do a huge amount of baby sitting because the young guys have zero confidence and have a meddling executive in their ear regularly, or, doing zany things like undermining the coaches or using tactics Sather did int he 80s to motivate.

Lowe did a sales job that things are ok, and that vets are going to go in and be stars, pumped up like they will be able to do it all... And vet players go there with a big raise and the notion that the organizational problems they have heard about are overblown.

Until they get there and realize it's much worse then they heard about.

I have heard from a good source back when that even McLellan couldn't believe how dysfunctional the organization was and how much energy that zapped from players day to day and year to year. Talent is going to waste, and then with cap problems due to overpaying guys to go there, there is no easy fix, and, players aren't waiving to go to Edmonton either.

Last year, Lowe got to back into the good books and was able to once again dictate to Katz that the coach and GM should go, and again mobilized the media, all at the expense of players trying to play through a season for a lame duck coach (or coaches) and a GM who wasn't making decisions. And the vets have to try and keep it together for all the young guys and are scolded also for not scoring more and helping the young guys out.

This isn't just Lucic. Pronger, Erik Cole, Souray, Ference, even guys likely like Maroon would have had that pressure. Lowe figures that a vet or two is going to be the cure all for the young guys, and each vet that comes going to be some guy like an 80s Messier to singlehadled keep young guys in line, and score and do it all.

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Old 08-02-2019, 09:14 AM   #2779
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Originally Posted by browna View Post
Comments from Ference a year or two after he left pretty much confirm that the Oilers expect vets to do a huge amount of baby sitting because the young guys have zero confidence and have a meddling executive in their ear regularly, or, doing zany things like undermining the coaches or using tactics Sather did int he 80s to motivate.

Lowe did a sales job that things are ok, and that vets are going to go in and be stars, pumped up like they will be able to do it all... And vet players go there with a big raise and the notion that the organizational problems they have heard about are overblown.

Until they get there and realize it's much worse then they heard about.

I have heard from a good source back when that even McLellan couldn't believe how dysfunctional the organization was and how much energy that zapped from players day to day and year to year. Talent is going to waste, and then with cap problems due to overpaying guys to go there, there is no easy fix, and, players aren't waiving to go to Edmonton either.

Last year, Lowe got to back into the good books and was able to once again dictate to Katz that the coach and GM should go, and again mobilized the media, all at the expense of players trying to play through a season for a lame duck coach (or coaches) and a GM who wasn't making decisions. And the vets have to try and keep it together for all the young guys and are scolded also for not scoring more and helping the young guys out.

This isn't just Lucic. Pronger, Erik Cole, Souray, Ference, even guys likely like Maroon would have had that pressure. Lowe figures that a vet or two is going to be the cure all for the young guys, and each vet that comes going to be some guy like an 80s Messier to singlehadled keep young guys in line, and score and do it all.
Excellent. Neal should thrive in that environment.
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Old 08-02-2019, 10:30 AM   #2780
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Stolen from reddit.
NSFW!


NSFW for size
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