Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 03-21-2015, 02:45 PM   #81
lorenavedon
Backup Goalie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by calumniate View Post
Lorenavedon, almost everything you say makes me think that you're only trying to convince yourself. The main reason for Calgary's prosperity is o&g. Pull that away and the stop gaps you speak of can only take you so far. When industries fail you'll eventually see it in the market. Look at Detroit, Windsor. Hamilton when manufacturing took a hit. The east coast towns when fishing declined..
The Calgary doom and gloom is getting old. If you came to Calgary in 1975 and suffered through all the booms and busts since, you'll still have been ahead today than in any other city in Canada when you take into account wage/cost of living/asset price appreciation etc. Out of all the busts we've had, housing in Calgary is now at record highs. Funny how that works. And in 10 years we're be at new record highs. And 30 years from now we'll be at new record highs. etc. If you wanna wait because housing is going to drop to where it was 5 years ago, have fun. Won't happen.
lorenavedon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2015, 12:30 AM   #82
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lorenavedon View Post
The Calgary doom and gloom is getting old. If you came to Calgary in 1975 and suffered through all the booms and busts since, you'll still have been ahead today than in any other city in Canada when you take into account wage/cost of living/asset price appreciation etc. Out of all the busts we've had, housing in Calgary is now at record highs. Funny how that works. And in 10 years we're be at new record highs. And 30 years from now we'll be at new record highs. etc. If you wanna wait because housing is going to drop to where it was 5 years ago, have fun. Won't happen.
Lorenavedon, I have posted two responses to two of your comments in the last week, would you mind responding to them? I am interested in your thoughts.
Kavvy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2015, 09:03 AM   #83
lorenavedon
Backup Goalie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
Lorenavedon, I have posted two responses to two of your comments in the last week, would you mind responding to them? I am interested in your thoughts.
so one talks about no more ammo. Canada has plenty of ammo left. We can still lower rates by 75 basis points and go into negative rates like some places in Europe now. We can also implement our on QE and print money. We can flood banks with money if people start to default and enact special legislation to avoid mass foreclosures. We can inflate our dollar to eliminate debt which will keep our house prices to where they are now but destroy savings and skyrocket the prices of necessary goods like food and energy. We can keep inflating the stock market which will give the middle class the sense of wealth so even if they lost their jobs they can start tapping into RRSPs, TFSAs and other investments.

Lots of stuff left to do before we're truly done. It's all messed up and wouldn't work unless the rest of the world's central banks were doing the same thing, which they are.
lorenavedon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2015, 09:37 AM   #84
ken0042
Playboy Mansion Poolboy
 
ken0042's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Close enough to make a beer run during a TV timeout
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lorenavedon View Post
The Calgary doom and gloom is getting old. If you came to Calgary in 1975 and suffered through all the booms and busts since, you'll still have been ahead today than in any other city in Canada when you take into account wage/cost of living/asset price appreciation etc. Out of all the busts we've had, housing in Calgary is now at record highs. Funny how that works. And in 10 years we're be at new record highs. And 30 years from now we'll be at new record highs. etc. If you wanna wait because housing is going to drop to where it was 5 years ago, have fun. Won't happen.
I don't think anybody here will disagree that in 10-30 years house prices will be higher than today. That isn't what we are talking about. Using Polak as an example, he is asking if it makes sense for him to buy today, or wait a few months (or a year.) I think that housing prices will be lower in 2015 than 2014. And I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. So if Polak is looking at a house that was $400K last spring, it may only be $380K now. It could also drop to $370K or $360K by the end of the year; which saves him tens of thousands of dollars. Especially if he is looking at buying a starter house and selling in less than 5 years; it makes sense to buy low.

That being said, don't stop looking Polak. You may find the perfect house at a decent price. For me, living in a great house for that 5 year flip window vs. one that you hate is worth "overpaying" by $10K.
ken0042 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2015, 12:34 PM   #85
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken0042 View Post
That being said, don't stop looking Polak. You may find the perfect house at a decent price. For me, living in a great house for that 5 year flip window vs. one that you hate is worth "overpaying" by $10K.
The other obvious point is - the more you see the more educated you are about what you like.

Despite being quite inexperienced, I would assume that even if this is your 4th house, getting out and seeing more places in more communities is only going to help your cause.
Kavvy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2015, 06:16 PM   #86
Regorium
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken0042 View Post
I don't think anybody here will disagree that in 10-30 years house prices will be higher than today. That isn't what we are talking about. Using Polak as an example, he is asking if it makes sense for him to buy today, or wait a few months (or a year.) I think that housing prices will be lower in 2015 than 2014. And I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. So if Polak is looking at a house that was $400K last spring, it may only be $380K now. It could also drop to $370K or $360K by the end of the year; which saves him tens of thousands of dollars. Especially if he is looking at buying a starter house and selling in less than 5 years; it makes sense to buy low.

That being said, don't stop looking Polak. You may find the perfect house at a decent price. For me, living in a great house for that 5 year flip window vs. one that you hate is worth "overpaying" by $10K.
Polak is looking for a 20-30% drop in the next couple months/this year. He's looking for spending 280k on a 400k house. Not a 10% drop.
Regorium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2015, 11:05 AM   #87
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

Polak is actually looking to pay 200-225 for a 250-280K condo to keep long term and turn into a rental property when it's time to upgrade.

The lower I can buy it for, the better the chances of me being able to afford to hold onto it when I decide to buy a house.

Right now I have zero desire for a house. All that extra space, money and maintenance so that most of it sits empty for the next 5 years? No thank you.

Just thought I'd clear that up

Also, I think it will take the year for the 20% drop to really hit.
polak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2015, 11:29 AM   #88
lorenavedon
Backup Goalie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by polak View Post
Polak is actually looking to pay 200-225 for a 250-280K condo to keep long term and turn into a rental property when it's time to upgrade.

The lower I can buy it for, the better the chances of me being able to afford to hold onto it when I decide to buy a house.

Right now I have zero desire for a house. All that extra space, money and maintenance so that most of it sits empty for the next 5 years? No thank you.

Just thought I'd clear that up

Also, I think it will take the year for the 20% drop to really hit.
that's going to be extra unlikely. ask Realtor 1. Condos in that price range are still hot. Anything good in that range still goes right away. You can get deals on more expensive ones but there are a lot of buyers at the level you're looking at gobbling up the worthwhile quality units. If prices do fall, the deals to be had will be on the high end, not the low end.
lorenavedon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2015, 11:56 AM   #89
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

Meh I've been watching a few listings that have peaked my interest and they've all been listed for at least a month so far.

I'm not worried. They're not going up until a rebound anyways.

What I'd really like is for some new builds to sit empty for a bit.
polak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 12:26 PM   #90
Ace
First Line Centre
 
Ace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Exp:
Default

^Rather than wait for them to change the price, have you considered making an offer in the range you hope for?
__________________
Ace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 12:32 PM   #91
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
^Rather than wait for them to change the price, have you considered making an offer in the range you hope for?
I plan on floating some offers out soon.

I need another month or two of saving before I'm ready to commit.
polak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 12:41 PM   #92
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
^Rather than wait for them to change the price, have you considered making an offer in the range you hope for?
I have considered this. But with the current market uncertainty, you would be crazy not to low ball your offer. I don't want to make my Realtor send an offer in which in their view will just be dismissed.

No one thinks the market will rise, but a great deal of economists think it will fall by 15-20%, it makes no sense to send any offer in that isn't a low ball.
Kavvy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 01:26 PM   #93
lorenavedon
Backup Goalie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
I have considered this. But with the current market uncertainty, you would be crazy not to low ball your offer. I don't want to make my Realtor send an offer in which in their view will just be dismissed.

No one thinks the market will rise, but a great deal of economists think it will fall by 15-20%, it makes no sense to send any offer in that isn't a low ball.
having a lowball work is about as likely as winning the lottery. If someone was willing to accept 240k for a condo listed at 280k or 300k, they would have it listed at 249k to get it gone asap. People are always willing to negotiate a small bit from their ask, but very few are going to even entertain lowballs. The state of the market currently is that if people don't get the high prices they're looking for, they will delist. Very very few are even bothering with price reductions because very few really need to sell. That's just the reality of todays market.

Another factor is there are many people just like Polak waiting to jump on a good deal. That guarantees prices won't drop. Prices will drop when buyers leave the market completely, not when you have tons of buyers and investors just waiting to scoop up deals. Think about it. If you have a good deal hit the market (which is rare) and 1000 buyers are looking at the exact same place because it's a good deal, what are the odds you are going to scoop it up for a bargain? In this market people need to face reality. In the same way buyers are stepping back, sellers are also stepping back. That is why you see sales plummet and prices staying the same with little movement to the downside.

I guarantee you that we might have 5-10 years of very little or no growth in price appreciation relative to inflation, but we will not see the big correction people are expecting. Polak will still be here in 5 years waiting for this pullback and in the meantime have wasted 80k-100k in rent.
lorenavedon is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to lorenavedon For This Useful Post:
Old 03-24-2015, 02:04 PM   #94
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

Your guarantee's are quite epic. I really hope you're capitalizing on all this sure fire knowledge you seem to think you have.

Sorry, but anyone who works in Oil and Gas is probably not looking at buying anything right now because they have little to no job security. Unfortunately for your theory that sector makes up the majority of Calgary potential home owners.
polak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 03:17 PM   #95
Ace
First Line Centre
 
Ace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Exp:
Default

I do think the rent point is a valid consideration. It helps buffer the potential future savings if you also look at the rent vs principal payments between now and then.

As a seller i'd always take an offer seriously and counter, I'd never just reject the offer. That's part of the game, no room for being offended.
__________________
Ace is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 04:28 PM   #96
lorenavedon
Backup Goalie
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace View Post
I do think the rent point is a valid consideration. It helps buffer the potential future savings if you also look at the rent vs principal payments between now and then.

As a seller i'd always take an offer seriously and counter, I'd never just reject the offer. That's part of the game, no room for being offended.
you say that now. Wait until you do a bunch of research, think your place is the best on the block has all these positives, all this maintenance work you've done on it, will last another 100 years etc. best access to amenities, worth at least 450k in your mind. You list at 429k because you know the market is a bit slow and you're going to move it FAST. Below assessment etc. Then your agent suggests you list for 399k because the market is really slowed down. You're like WTF the place is worth at least 450k how am I going to list it at 399. Then someone will offer 380? If I list it for 399 I have to sell it for list. No problem says the agent, at this price you'll sell it ASAP. You list it and weeks pass/ maybe months without an offer. Then FINALLY your agent comes with an offer. Thank god now you can final sell. Offer comes in at 340k. You're telling me you wouldn't be pissed out of your mind and ready to break stuff? Everyone thinks they're immune until reality sets in.
lorenavedon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2015, 05:17 PM   #97
Oy Tiggins
Farm Team Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Exp:
Default

You know offers aren't binding right? not sure why you would be pissed and want to break stuff, you just say no and move on... or you can as you like to say "face reality" and realize your home isnt worth what you think it is.

The market is definitely cooling inventory has sky rocketed and buyers arent prepared to meet the sellers prices, that will drive prices down, what that percentage is time will tell and there is nothing wrong with waiting to see what happens or throwing a few low ball offers out there.
Oy Tiggins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2015, 12:21 PM   #98
Travis Munroe
RealtorŪ
 
Travis Munroe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Every low ball is different.

I successfully completed one last week for 15+ % off the listing price on a brand new listing. Circumstances allowed us to try and although the odds were very slim, there was a reason to try it.

Am working on one right now about 13% less than list. This is a case of the property being over priced and my job is to make the sellers realtor understand that they messed up on the pricing. I think this one will work out as well!

Parted ways with a buyer on the weekend because of low ball interests. They wanted to offer 100k less on a 350k home. A complete waste of my time and just because they see prices dropping to these levels (i try to type that without laughing), doesnt mean that is where we are today.

Think logically as to reasoning behind a low ball.
Why in the world would a seller accept way less than their asking price? If - a big if they were willing to accept a huge lowball, would it not make sense for them to reduce their price to that price they would accept and watch multiple offers come in and end up selling for more?

Again - there are situations where it works and you can find reasoning behind the low ball but your view on where the market is headed is not one of them.
Travis Munroe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2015, 04:22 PM   #99
fundmark19
#1 Goaltender
 
Join Date: May 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
Think logically as to reasoning behind a low ball.
Why in the world would a seller accept way less than their asking price? If - a big if they were willing to accept a huge lowball, would it not make sense for them to reduce their price to that price they would accept and watch multiple offers come in and end up selling for more?
When I first started working with Realtor1 I was all about the lowball mindset. At one point we saw a house that looked like was part of a war zone. I said to him why don't we just offer 100k under and then I can use that to fix the place. Travis explained to me if they even thought about looking at your lowball it would still make sense for them to ignore it and post the house for 10-20k more then your lowball and at least try to attract more offers that way and get into a bidding war.

I now let him handle my negotiating as he does it on a daily basis and knows as a realtor what can work and what doesn't.

Last edited by fundmark19; 03-25-2015 at 05:02 PM.
fundmark19 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to fundmark19 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-25-2015, 05:35 PM   #100
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

That's a good point!
polak is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:49 AM.

Calgary Flames
2017-18




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2016