^ so then we are all agreed. It's absolutely happening, only not in the time frame the article suggests.
I expect vehicle ownership will become less of a status symbol; it might even be the opposite. Like the 77 Firebird used to be a status symbol everywhere, and now is mocked everywhere, except in Edmonton.
are you arguing we have hit peak worldwide oil consumption? Because that is the only metric which affects Alberta. As that starts to decline the oil market changes drastically. I'm willing to bet worldwide oil demand continues to grow to past 2030.
While you may be right I wouldn't bet the farm either, more and more consultants are starting to change their forecasts, one that I have some personal ties with changed their's last year and I heard they might even revise it to even more of an O&G downturn.
From Mckinsey & Company, June 2016
Quote:
Could peak oil demand be in sight?
The total demand for liquid hydrocarbons will play out as a tug of war between growth in the petrochemical sector and declining demand from passenger cars. Petrochemical feedstock will drive 70 percent of the growth in demand for liquid hydrocarbons through 2035. Demand for liquids, excluding chemicals, will peak and flatten by 2025 because of a decline in demand from light vehicles. The petrochemicals demand will drive the growth of light end products, a large share of which are not made from crude oil.
McKinsey’s latest automotive consensus suggests that by 2030, electric vehicles (including hybrids and battery-powered plug-in vehicles) could represent close to 50 percent of new cars sold in China, the European Union, and the United States, and about 30 percent globally. Also, for the first time, our business-as-usual case includes autonomous-vehicle adoption and car sharing. If the market penetration of electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles accelerates, oil demand driven by light vehicles could be approximately 3 million barrels lower in 2035 than assumed in the business-as-usual case. Together, this accelerated adoption of light-vehicle technologies and the adjustment of plastics demand could reduce 2035 oil demand by nearly 6 million barrels per day. An important result is that oil demand will peak around 2030, at fewer than 100 million barrels per day in this scenario.
Earlier this morning, Uber announced that it's expanding its Advanced Technologies Group outside the US for the first time with the opening of a new research center in Toronto. While Uber's ATG group oversees all aspects of its programs relating to self-driving cars and trucks, the new Toronto research-and-development center will focus not on building the physical cars or cameras but rather on developing the artificial intelligence needed to create autonomous vehicles.
A variety of newsoutlets did report this very important and exciting announcement
^ so then we are all agreed. It's absolutely happening, only not in the time frame the article suggests.
I expect vehicle ownership will become less of a status symbol; it might even be the opposite. Like the 77 Firebird used to be a status symbol everywhere, and now is mocked everywhere, except in Edmonton.
I don't think it's wise to completely dismiss the possibility that significant changes are coming soon. To do so could lead to complacency when what is required is urgency (to diversify the economy). If we work to diversify and oil sticks around? Sweet! If we don't diversify more and oil decreases in importance? Crap.
__________________
"WHAT HAVE WE EVER DONE TO DESERVE THIS??? WHAT IS WRONG WITH US????" -Oiler Fan
"It was a debacle of monumental proportions." -MacT
Last edited by Fozzie_DeBear; 05-09-2017 at 08:23 AM.
^ so then we are all agreed. It's absolutely happening, only not in the time frame the article suggests.
I expect vehicle ownership will become less of a status symbol; it might even be the opposite. Like the 77 Firebird used to be a status symbol everywhere, and now is mocked everywhere, except in Edmonton.
I think this is something that people are generally missing. I don't really know a lot of gearheads my age or younger than me. This obviously anecdotal and could be entirely because of where I live in the country, but I find many millennials and Gen Zers are more likely to roll their eyes at someone driving a big, gas-guzzling SUV or truck solely for status. Then there are the numerous jokes my female friends make about dudes whose profile pics on dating website and apps are pictures with them and their cars/trucks.
Especially on the island here, going "green" seems to be more trendy than driving around in a nice car.
I think this is something that people are generally missing. I don't really know a lot of gearheads my age or younger than me. This obviously anecdotal and could be entirely because of where I live in the country, but I find many millennials and Gen Zers are more likely to roll their eyes at someone driving a big, gas-guzzling SUV or truck solely for status.
Isn't that because they're all leasing German cars and crossovers for status. There's never been a better time for the Big 3 Germany luxury marques.
Can't say as I've seen many of those driving around town here but maybe?
I can't speak for everywhere in the city but the NW is crawling with German cars/SUV's. It really is so much easier to get into a luxury car these days on a lease.
millenial purchasing data is mixed along geographic lines more than anything else.
Also the lack of income removes a significant portion from the prospective market.
I would not put much stock in the market research on millennial automotive purchasing as it currently exists.
What is most predictive of the move towards electric vehicles is their increasing development by auto makers in the face of low sales and market research indicating low demand.
Why would an entire industry continue to expand on unpopular products unless they saw something the rest of us don't?
The Following User Says Thank You to Flash Walken For This Useful Post:
millenial purchasing data is mixed along geographic lines more than anything else.
Also the lack of income removes a significant portion from the prospective market.
I would not put much stock in the market research on millennial automotive purchasing as it currently exists.
What is most predictive of the move towards electric vehicles is their increasing development by auto makers in the face of low sales and market research indicating low demand.
Why would an entire industry continue to expand on unpopular products unless they saw something the rest of us don't?
Umm because they have to. Automakers are faced with nearly doubling their fleet-wide efficiency by 2025. Adding EV's and hybrids to existing gasoline fueled fleets is really the only way this can be achieved.
Can't wait until this is bumped in 2030 and everyone is still driving their big gas and diesel vehicles and we all laugh at how silly the article was
I'm pretty sure this attitude is why we currently have an NDP government. Oil demand growth will never slow!
We're going to make the exact same mistake again in banking the entire economy on oil only to get burned. But it's fine, at least we all get an extra 20% income for a decade so that we can make the loan payments on our Audis and 700k homes.
The Following User Says Thank You to CampbellsTransgressions For This Useful Post:
I agree that the EV revolution is starting to pick up steam, however, a lot of the assumptions being made about future cost/affordability are predicated on a low cost per unit of power.
While there are additional sources out there, this was the most convenient to post.
A couple of excerpts:
Quote:
Across Canada, motor fuel taxes can vary greatly between locales. On average, about one-third of the total price of gasoline at the pump is tax.
Quote:
The Government of Canada collects about $5 billion per year in excise taxes on gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel[8] as well as approximately $1.6 billion per year from GST revenues on gasoline and diesel (net of input tax credits). The Canada Revenue Agency, a part of the government, collects these taxes.
Collectively, the provincial governments collect approximately $8 billion per year from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
The federal taxes go into general coffers and help to fund a range of programs: $2 billion of the approximately $5 billion collected from federal excise taxes goes into the now permanent annual Gas Tax Fund for municipal infrastructure. Provincial tax revenues usually go to fund road repair and construction, and additionally in some provinces a portion of revenues (for example, 2 cents/litre in Ontario) is also distributed directly to municipalities
While there are taxes on electricity (a quick search suggested only HST/GST), it appears that it will not come close to the same amount as gasoline.
As the ratio of EV's vs. ICE's increases, and gasoline demand decreases, there is going to be a revenue shortfall that will require a shift of gasoline taxes over to some sort of "charging station tax." Or more toll roads. The government will not give up a revenue stream willingly... it'll only shift.
Disclaimer: I am an Alberta Energy worker. So I always take a more critical/defensive view point on things like this. I think it was mentioned earlier that our economy will shift (or should shift) towards manufacturing of plastics and in my opinion carbon fibre. I think one of the more exciting things is the work that COSIA and xprize have done to find a use for Carbon Dioxide. We do not know in what shape or form the industry will exist in, but it will exist. I don't think 5 years ago, anyone would have been able to predict that we'd be able to extract oil from shale in a way that it was profitable sub-40$/bbl. It's constantly changing and will continue to evolve.
We (Canada - Alberta, BC, Sask./Arctic/NFLD) have a world class supply of natural gas, conventional oil and heavy sandy oil. It will not be the primary driver of our economy but it will still be important.
millenial purchasing data is mixed along geographic lines more than anything else.
Also the lack of income removes a significant portion from the prospective market.
I would not put much stock in the market research on millennial automotive purchasing as it currently exists.
What is most predictive of the move towards electric vehicles is their increasing development by auto makers in the face of low sales and market research indicating low demand.
Why would an entire industry continue to expand on unpopular products unless they saw something the rest of us don't?
It is entirely possible that they are all chasing it because every other automaker is chasing it. They are public companies so they fallout from making the same bad decision is far less than the fallout from making an independent bad decision.
The Following User Says Thank You to GP_Matt For This Useful Post:
I would never discourage anyone from getting an EV but just one thing to keep in mind depending on how much disposable income you have is that EV resale value is horrendous so if you get one be prepared to own it for a long as possible because 3 year old EV's typically return less than 20% of it's original purchase price. This is another issue facing EV's that not many people talk about.
I was hoping to take advantage of that and buy used. A new battery is about $6,000, but you can do a payment plan.
As a side note, does anyone follow the Croatian company Rimac? The have been producing some very interesting and promising high performance electric cars. The founder is coming to Canada this month to do some talks and investor relations stuff.
I'm pretty sure this attitude is why we currently have an NDP government. Oil demand growth will never slow!
We're going to make the exact same mistake again in banking the entire economy on oil only to get burned. But it's fine, at least we all get an extra 20% income for a decade so that we can make the loan payments on our Audis and 700k homes.
That's not what I've said at all. I've said 2030 is an idiotic prediction for EV and transportation as a service effecting the oil industry at all.
Will it effect Alberta in the future? Yep, by 2030? Not a chance. We will likely all be dead by the time it seriously effects Alberta. It's still at least 40-50 years away.
Disclaimer: I am a painter and don't hang drywall.
Why would an entire industry continue to expand on unpopular products unless they saw something the rest of us don't?
You mean the same industry that nearly bankrupted and needed a bailout because they continued to make stupid decisions? That same industry that you keep referencing to as smarter than all us?
The same one that needed billions of dollars from the government just to stay afloat?
For those of you who want a great analysis on the energy industry, the oil market and the disruptions that may or may not occur at the speed people think, watch this video. Its about 28 minutes and the presenter is a local researcher at Arc Energy in Calgary. In this video he does an EXCELLENT job of breaking down the history of energy, the scope of the oil and gas in Canada and the world and the emerging market trends. This is a very good presentation that he gave at the Liberal convention in 2016. This isn't really a political statement so don't take it as one at all.
He does a TON of quality research for the investment industry and recently held a conference at Heritage Park's Gasoline Ally. He brought together automotive, energy and other professionals together to discuss the changes that are going on in the business of both. Fascinating all around. The slides for the presentation are also included halfway down the page.
