Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Eric

If he ages anything like Patty Kane who plays a similar style game, shouldn’t be too bad. Wishful thinking.

But Patrick Kane is only 33 now.

Gaudreau will be 29 when his contract starts so this would be year 3/4 of the contract at Kane's current age. Will Kane be the same guy when he's 35+?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

It's time to get Johnny to rw though. I think he would excel there with his cerebral vision and better shooting angles

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He freelances five on five and often attacks from the right side anyway.

On the PP for sure though.

He and Lindholm should always be on their off sides.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But Patrick Kane is only 33 now.

Gaudreau will be 29 when his contract starts so this would be year 3/4 of the contract at Kane's current age. Will Kane be the same guy when he's 35+?

So Johnny would be 33 in year 5 then right? 36 in year 8.

We are overthinking the age angle IMO, age decline should not be a huge factor and is the one saving grace for his previous deal expiring when it does.

[transplant99]

I hope he stays as well...not sure there is a Flames fan in existence that wouldn't.

Otherwise it really does screw the club completely.

If he was banking on a better year to put himself in a stronger negotiating position, then kudos to him. Played it entirely right.

I'm with Bingo though, going 8 years is really not optimal for the team. He will be 29 when next season begins. How many pure skill guys are truly effective after age 34? Few and far between. Eating 3 years on a declined asset is very poor managing.

I wonder if a Kaprizov type deal would satisfy the Gaudreau camp? Maybe with an additional year.

9M X 6?

With the cap simply not going up the next few years, additional lost revenue already occurring this season, and very few teams in a position to be both competitive right now along with his own desires...i really dont see him garnering 10 or 11 a year on a long term deal elsewhere without some major deck shuffling by some club.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, they do have to compete with taxation in some places. But they can offer the extra year if they want. And I suppose if all other things are equal, where he and his wife want to live is a big factor. Which means either Philly or here, IMO.

I am not an accountant but I suspect taxation in Penn is better than it is here. That said, making American dollars living in Canada is a benefit. These things are fluid though so it really would take some financial planning, economist, or an accountant to understand what the net difference would be. Suffice it to say though, I would imagine that the Flames will be able to meet what other teams may offer.

Family is a huge consideration, no question. And if he does leave I bet it is for this reason and not because the Flames didn't offer him enough money or they didn't sign him a year ago like others are saying with zero evidence that this is the case.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I am not an accountant but I suspect taxation in Penn is better than it is here. That said, making American dollars living in Canada is a benefit. These things are fluid though so it really would take some financial planning, economist, or an accountant to understand what the net difference would be. Suffice it to say though, I would imagine that the Flames will be able to meet what other teams may offer.

Family is a huge consideration, no question. And if he does leave I bet it is for this reason and not because the Flames didn't offer him enough money or they didn't sign him a year ago like others are saying with zero evidence that this is the case.

I’m not sure about Penn. It isn’t the haven that Fla or AZ or Nev are. Philly has home town going for it, but aside from that I don’t see much to commend it for him. Non PO team right now, with a horrid goal differential, just fired a top coach and replaced him with Yeo.

[blender]

One thing I am struggling with is the comments that suggest that Treliving hard-balled Johnny during his last negotiations and forced him to settle for less than market value, and by extension, Gaudreau will exact his revenge this time around.

I don't remember this being the case back then. Gaudreau held out and missed camp (or some of it)? Gaudreau got a six-year deal while the team would have certainly been looking for 8 years. And the AAV was right there with similar contacts of the day, wasn't it? I can't recall the exact comparables, but wasn't he in line with MacKinnon, Barkov and others?

I always thought it was a fair deal for both sides. If I'm wrong fair enough, but I feel like we are just making stuff up to.justify our fears here.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blender

One thing I am struggling with is the comments that suggest that Treliving hard-balled Johnny during his last negotiations and forced him to settle for less than market value, and by extension, Gaudreau will exact his revenge this time around.

I don't remember this being the case back then. Gaudreau held out and missed camp (or some of it)? Gaudreau got a sic year deal while the team would have certainly been looking for 8 years. And the AAV was right there with similar contacts of the day, wasn't it? I can't recall the exact comparables, but wasn't he in line with MacKinnon, Barkov and others?

I always thought it was a fair deal for both sides. If I'm wrong fair enough, but I feel like we are just making stuff up to.justify our fears here.

It’s really only one guy saying this. And yeah, he was making just under Gio and in line with the guys you mention. Was he looking for more? Sure. But he got to UFA a year earlier than Monahan, who did a deal a lot earlier in the post season.

Moreover, if they had just caved at the time and given him, say, $8M, who’s to say he isn’t still negotiating hard now? When has a favourable RFA contract ever equaled a discount later on?

[FlamesAddiction]

Structure might just be as important as term and dollar amount, especially with the current economic drivers.

I would bet that JG will insist on a contract being front loaded with signing bonuses to the maximum extent that the CBA allows. The Flames did this with Tkachuk I believe, but a lot has changed since then. I am not sure the owners have the appetite to pay a large sum like that upfront at this point, but maybe they do. Some team will though.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

It's time to get Johnny to rw though. I think he would excel there with his cerebral vision and better shooting angles

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I wouldn’t touch anything regarding the top line right now, it it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I don’t even mind Tkachuk on his off wing, he’s so good along the boards even on his off wing, he also has a great angle to find Gaudreau when he blows the zone for a breakaway.

Plus these 2 are so good at cutting laterally through the middle with the puck that it doesn’t even matter who’s playing LW or RW. Tkachuk could have the puck and drop pass it off to Johnny who made his way to the right side. That’s the great thing about high skilled/high IQ players, they break down the natural structures of the game and create confusion and chaos in the offensive zone.

I don’t think Gaudreau or Tkachuk are particularly elite in their physical builds, one is considerably slight and other skates like he’s in mud, but both players despite their deficiencies can use their other strengths to create time and space for their linemates. That way, no one can just double team one guy without leaving an equally dangerous guy wide open. That’s what works with the top line, they have multiple playmakers and game breakers with no real weaknesses. They can score anyway you want, on the cycle, on the rush and while checking. It’s completely sustainable.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So Johnny would be 33 in year 5 then right? 36 in year 8.

We are overthinking the age angle IMO, age decline should not be a huge factor and is the one saving grace for his previous deal expiring when it does.

I agree to a point.

I think you pay a premium with free agents and say year 4 and 5 on Coleman's deal is a price of doing business.

But I'm a little more leery about a player that could be making $11M on a 8 year deal who needs to be like a water bug to be effective.

[kobasew19]

State tax in PA is like 3%. It’s nothing.

I personally don’t care if we pay a premium for Johnny now so that his contract may be considered an albatross in years 6-8. IMO, our window to do some damage in the playoffs is immediate and over the next few years.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I agree to a point.

I think you pay a premium with free agents and say year 4 and 5 on Coleman's deal is a price of doing business.

But I'm a little more leery about a player that could be making $11M on a 8 year deal who needs to be like a water bug to be effective.

With hands like a surgeon he should be fine.

Kane is allot more useful for Chicago than Toews these days.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Dazzlindino's story got to me honestly. What a journey. Good luck to you, I really find your attitude inspiring to be honest

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Thanks much appreciated. There have been plenty of times where I have needed inspiration too. Your words mean a lot! It has been a bit of a challenge lipreading these days, everywhere I go shop or whatever people are wearing masks lol At McDonalds today the person wouldn't lower the mask while talking to me so I did all the talking and managed to get the order done! They were behind glass but people are just trying to do their jobs. I accept it, it helps me to be a bit more understanding! I just try to think.. another stepping stone Now to get back on topic, I agree the Flames winning and an energized Johnny that wants to stay is just what the team needs. Feels like the team wants to do something special.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’m not sure about Penn. It isn’t the haven that Fla or AZ or Nev are. Philly has home town going for it, but aside from that I don’t see much to commend it for him. Non PO team right now, with a horrid goal differential, just fired a top coach and replaced him with Yeo.

Yeah, I don't know if it is a Calgary inferiority complex we are seeing by some here but the Flames seem to make a lot of sense to me. Maybe NJ has a shot as well although they have Bratt and Zacha to sign. The need there seems to be on the blueline.

Gaudreau seems happy here, otherwise I suspect he may already be gone. He has stated as much publicly on more than one occasion this past offseason, if I am not mistaken. The Flames can offer him more term than anyone else and just because he resigns here is no guarantee he stays here for full term of the contract. His family also seems to like Calgary, I believe it was his father that pushed him to sign here in the first place when he could have gone the route of Adam Fox. As far as I am aware there has never been any tension between the two sides. People like to point to a rough contract negotiation last time around but that is simply business. I doubt there are any hard feelings and if there are, that must have been a awful long six years for the Gaudreau family to hold a grudge.

On the other hand the other guy who has more skin in the game than all of us combined, Treliving, also seems okay to be where he is. I'm not hearing any rumors about teams sniffing around on what it would take to get JG out of Calgary.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He's improved his stock.

He's playing great.

But I'm really concerned about years 6-8 on the contract. That has never changed.

That is true, but that’s what happens when you sign players reaching UFA. The last years will usually stink. But your choice is to not sign those players. Letting Johnny walk because you are worried about years 6-8 means letting him walk for nothing. The plan would be that the Flames are likely rebuilding at that stage.


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[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I hope he stays as well...not sure there is a Flames fan in existence that wouldn't.

Otherwise it really does screw the club completely.

If he was banking on a better year to put himself in a stronger negotiating position, then kudos to him. Played it entirely right.

I'm with Bingo though, going 8 years is really not optimal for the team. He will be 29 when next season begins. How many pure skill guys are truly effective after age 34? Few and far between. Eating 3 years on a declined asset is very poor managing.

I wonder if a Kaprizov type deal would satisfy the Gaudreau camp? Maybe with an additional year.

9M X 6?

With the cap simply not going up the next few years, additional lost revenue already occurring this season, and very few teams in a position to be both competitive right now along with his own desires...i really dont see him garnering 10 or 11 a year on a long term deal elsewhere without some major deck shuffling by some club.

No, in terms of term and dollars.

If a Johnny would accept that deal, he would have been signed already.

He picked 6 years so he’d be young enough for his next UFA contract.


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[TheoFleury]

This is the one signing we can't afford to overthink and worry about. 8x11m is what it will take at least. Just do it and make smarter decisions with the other contracts. Turn off the phone on July 1st. It's time to start graduating these talented players on the farm and move on from some guys. Gaudreau deserves and will get at least close to panarin. He has all the leverage. IMO a no brainer to blow him away with an offer. Make him happy and prove you believe in him. No half measures and saying 'we tried'... get it done or fire BT and get a new gm to rebuild. You cant worry about 5 years from now with your franchise player or he will leave. Cement his status and prove it with a contract befitting a superstar. This is very much a two option scenario imo. Offer him panarin money and you might keep him, less and he is most likely gone

Imo we take him for granted as fans. I honestly believe if we got kuch and tb got Johnny... the hockey world would have johnny on Patrick Kane's level. It's a tragedy he's never had a top 25 forward to play with. He deserved better and worked with what he had the best he could. Monahan owes Johnny millions for that contract. Johnny created Monahan... no different than guys like cheechoo or rob brown

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But I'm really concerned about years 6-8 on the contract. That has never changed.

Six to eight years is a long ass time way, we get Gaudreau in years 1-5, that's what matters. Spend more on your star players, overpay in the later years so you're not overpaying for marginal players in the middle of your roster.

1.5-2 millón dollars six seven and eight years from now isn't anything to fuss about.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I agree to a point.

I think you pay a premium with free agents and say year 4 and 5 on Coleman's deal is a price of doing business.

But I'm a little more leery about a player that could be making $11M on a 8 year deal who needs to be like a water bug to be effective.

Gaudreau is essentially a UFA so I think anyone who signs him will be paying a premium with the commensurate risk attached.

Trading him is no longer a realistic option so it’s either sign him or lose for nothing. What is the walk away price on an 8 year deal? $11 million?