Johnny and the Flames "Pacific Problem"

[powderjunkie]

We all know the Flames have been a Jekyll and Hyde team for several years now, and there are innumerable guesses to the reason(s). I stumbled across an interesting data point that lends a lot of support to some of these ideas, though the conclusions to be drawn are certainly up for debate. The Flames, and especially Johnny Gaudreau are at their worst against Pacific Division opponents.



DOD (degree of difficulty) is essentially just the strength of the division. Higher number = stronger (more info at bottom of post).

Current season is especially manic (and incomplete samples), so I'd hesitate to draw much conclusion from it, but over the course of the last 3 seasons there is a clear trend, despite the Pacific being a consistently 'weak' division.

I imagine there are lots of other stats that can correlate relative success rates between the Flames and Johnny, but the relationship seems especially evident here. Unsurprisingly, Monahan follows a similar trend, but nowhere near as dramatically as his usual linemate. Gio and Backlund seem to perform slightly below their averages against the PAC, but with much less deviation (as one might expect being less directly linked with Gaudreau).


To me, this supports the idea that 'the book is out on how to beat Johnny and the Flames', with the notion that coaching staff would focus most energy on their divisional foes (most frequent opponents, biggest impact on standings, and most likely playoff opponents). One would expect that Central Division teams should be able to achieve the same success against us...I don't have a particular explanation...perhaps they have simply focused more attention on California teams?

I think there are lots of other possible inferences. One that comes to mind is that if/when Johnny becomes aware of this statistical distinction, does it make him less likely to re-sign (ie. in his mind he could be a consistent 1.2 ppg player playing in another division)? Without turning this solely into a trade Johnny thread, I think this is definitely an interesting data point that supports seriously exploring the idea.

Another inference might be that this does not bode well for making the playoffs (currently trending to CEN teams taking both wildcard spots), or success in the playoffs generally (especially if the 'easy to scout and strategize against' notion is true).

Lastly, from a quick glance, struggling within division does not seem to apply at all to any recent cup winners, or elite teams (most seem especially dominant within division). You might find a bit of it for the Jets (and pre-2018 Blues), but to nowhere near the same degree as Calgary.

DOD Sourced from here: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nhl/...n/2019/rating/ - it's based on a 4.0 reference point - I divided it by 4 because I was thinking about displaying all this info on a single graphic, but got lazy. I used the 'simple mean' (because we play each team with equal frequency *almost*) - the exact numbers aren't particularly important, I was just looking for a quick/dirty expression of comparative divisional strength. All of the team and play pt data is raw (ie. no attempt to 'correct' anything)

Hockey-Reference - 'Splits' is where to find player stats by division (not broken per game as far as I could see though)

[heep223]

Should help now that the California teams suck and will continue to suck for the foreseeable future.

[Enoch Root]

I think this kind of stuff ebbs and flows.

ANA, and to a lesser extent LA, have had our number in the past, but that appears to be changing.

VGS has had our number so far, but will it continue?

We had the Oilers' number for a long time, but then it kind of switched for the past 2 or 3 years. I don't expect them to have our number going forward.

As for having a 'book' on the Flames, every team knows what every other team is up to - there are no surprises. Having said that, it is just the way sports are that some teams have other teams' numbers.

[ricardodw]

The Flames are not a hard team to prepare for. They have too many soft players who do not want to engage physically.

The Flames style is outside the norm and catch the opposition off guard when they only see them twice a year.

The more often a team plays against the Flame the better they are able to deal with Gaudreau and Monahan.

see the Ducks (2015, 2017) playoff game plans: Gaudreau 9 games 3 assists. and the Avs 2019 playoffs 5 games 1 assist.

When a team concentrates on shutting down the Flames they start with shutting down Gaudreau and are able to do it.

[TheScorpion]

Tbh I disagree, Ricardo. For my money, this is the toughest Flames team in years.

Tkachuk
Bennett
Lucic
Hamonic
Andersson
Rinaldo
Giordano
Stone

These are all pretty tough customers... and then you have guys like Ryan, Dube, Lindholm, etc who are scrappy guys and put up with a lot of stuff and are still really effective players.

Johnny is easy to focus on for some teams but I think putting Tkachuk and Lindholm on an entirely separate "top line" makes it a lot harder for teams to devote all their energy to stopping one single scoring unit.

[Azhouse]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames are not a hard team to prepare for. They have too many soft players who do not want to engage physically.

Yet when have a player like Rinaldo who hits and chips in goals/ points we sit him in favour of Jankowski who is afraid of his own shadow.

They are so soft that I haven't been fully engaged this year. It is frustrating to watch.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

see the Ducks (2015, 2017) playoff game plans: Gaudreau 9 games 3 assists.

Patently false!

He has TWO GOALS and 3 assists in 9 playoff games vs. Ducks.(2015, 2017)

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by timbit

Patently false!

He has TWO GOALS and 3 assists in 9 playoff games vs. Ducks.(2015, 2017)

True, last 2 playoffs though, 3 points in 9 games... 0 goals

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by timbit

Patently false!

He has TWO GOALS and 3 assists in 9 playoff games vs. Ducks.(2015, 2017)

I stand corrected 5 pts in 9 games 1 wins - 8 losses followed by another 1 pts in 5 games .

14 games 2 goals 4 assists 2 wins 12 losses when teams focus on shutting Gaudreau down.


Do you disagree with my point that the more a team sees of Gaudreau the better they shut him down.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Tbh I disagree, Ricardo. For my money, this is the toughest Flames team in years.

Tkachuk
Bennett
Lucic
Hamonic
Andersson
Rinaldo
Giordano
Stone

These are all pretty tough customers... and then you have guys like Ryan, Dube, Lindholm, etc who are scrappy guys and put up with a lot of stuff and are still really effective players.

Johnny is easy to focus on for some teams but I think putting Tkachuk and Lindholm on an entirely separate "top line" makes it a lot harder for teams to devote all their energy to stopping one single scoring unit.

Having said that, the Flames are 31st in hits/60 (which are admittedly subjective)

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Having said that, the Flames are 31st in hits/60 (which are admittedly subjective)

True as that may be I think that's not necessarily the worst thing in the world because having lots of hits generally means that you're playing without the puck a lot.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

True as that may be I think that's not necessarily the worst thing in the world because having lots of hits generally means that you're playing without the puck a lot.

This is a myth that people like to use to downplay hitting. The Pens, Knights and Islanders lead the league this year.

The simple fact of the matter is that every team spends about half the time without the puck (more or less). Plenty of time to throw some hits.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Tbh I disagree, Ricardo. For my money, this is the toughest Flames team in years.

Tkachuk
Bennett
Lucic
Hamonic
Andersson
Rinaldo
Giordano
Stone

These are all pretty tough customers... and then you have guys like Ryan, Dube, Lindholm, etc who are scrappy guys and put up with a lot of stuff and are still really effective players.

Johnny is easy to focus on for some teams but I think putting Tkachuk and Lindholm on an entirely separate "top line" makes it a lot harder for teams to devote all their energy to stopping one single scoring unit.

Flames aren't physical and rarely try to engage in that type of game. It's cute That they think they can just turn into that kind of team come playoffs, but they have no idea how to be a tough team to play against.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Tbh I disagree, Ricardo. For my money, this is the toughest Flames team in years.

Tkachuk
Bennett
Lucic
Hamonic
Andersson
Rinaldo
Giordano
Stone

These are all pretty tough customers... and then you have guys like Ryan, Dube, Lindholm, etc who are scrappy guys and put up with a lot of stuff and are still really effective players.

Johnny is easy to focus on for some teams but I think putting Tkachuk and Lindholm on an entirely separate "top line" makes it a lot harder for teams to devote all their energy to stopping one single scoring unit.

This group of scrappy guys gets out hit by a significant margin in a high percentage of their games.

There is Gaudreau, Ryan, Jankowski, Rieder, Brodie, Frolik who rarely inflict a hit on an opposing player. That is 6 out of the Flames starting 18!!

This season Gio and Hamonic are not hitting on a regular basis. Hamonic stopped hitting right after he got hurt in the fight with Gudbranson the start of last season.

There would be only one team in the whole league that would not go into a playoff series with the Flames planning on physically imposing their will on the Flames.

Carolina would look at the Flames and figure they were just so much faster that they wouldn't have to beat up on the Flames.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

This group of scrappy guys gets out hit by a significant margin in a high percentage of their games.

There is Gaudreau, Ryan, Jankowski, Rieder, Brodie, Frolik who rarely inflict a hit on an opposing player. That is 6 out of the Flames starting 18!!

This season Gio and Hamonic are not hitting on a regular basis. Hamonic stopped hitting right after he got hurt in the fight with Gudbranson the start of last season.

There would be only one team in the whole league that would not go into a playoff series with the Flames planning on physically imposing their will on the Flames.

Carolina would look at the Flames and figure they were just so much faster that they wouldn't have to beat up on the Flames.

Was outhitting the Stars the winning recipe? LOL

[Crown Royal]

I can't back this up with data, nor will I try and could easily be wrong. But, I feel like it's always harder to play against your own division because the games mean more and teams get up more for games against division rivals. I wouldn't be shocked to see many lesser teams winning percentage be higher against their own division.

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I can't back this up with data, nor will I try and could easily be wrong. But, I feel like it's always harder to play against your own division because the games mean more and teams get up more for games against division rivals. I wouldn't be shocked to see many lesser teams winning percentage be higher against their own division.

I think that's because teams build their roster around their division then look at the conference second. I could be wrong but that seems logical.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is a myth that people like to use to downplay hitting. The Pens, Knights and Islanders lead the league this year.

The simple fact of the matter is that every team spends about half the time without the puck (more or less). Plenty of time to throw some hits.

hits aren't even a legit stat...some buildings call every bump a hit. In Calgary you have to knock a guy back or over.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

To me, this supports the idea that 'the book is out on how to beat Johnny and the Flames', with the notion that coaching staff would focus most energy on their divisional foes (most frequent opponents, biggest impact on standings, and most likely playoff opponents). One would expect that Central Division teams should be able to achieve the same success against us...I don't have a particular explanation...perhaps they have simply focused more attention on California teams?

I think there are lots of other possible inferences. One that comes to mind is that if/when Johnny becomes aware of this statistical distinction, does it make him less likely to re-sign (ie. in his mind he could be a consistent 1.2 ppg player playing in another division)? Without turning this solely into a trade Johnny thread, I think this is definitely an interesting data point that supports seriously exploring the idea.

If the Pacific teams have more success against johnny because they focus on him due to playing him more frequently, would the same become true if he switched divisions? Plus the Pacific already has this knowledge, so it would be two divisions that shut him down.

In any event, I don't believe in this theory. Teams aren't playing in a vacuum, teams on other divisions would have the same knowledge as teams in the Pacific have.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by timbit

Was outhitting the Stars the winning recipe? LOL

Yes it was. When the Flames hit they have a much higher winning percentage. When they don't they get out hit they don't.

Maybe the Flames can overcome playing the 6-8 players that do not hit at all but it sure puts a lot of physical responsibility on the 10-12 players that do.

In the playoffs most NHL teams have 1 or 2 guys that do not hit.