The Importance of Talent-Level Combinations

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

Gaudreau can be a TL but he isn't this year. This year he's a 2nd line soft, one-dimensional forward who hurts you when he isn't scoring.

Tkachuk and Lindholm are TL's in my mind. Lindholm is definitely a true first liner. He's looked it both at RW and C. Tkachuk does lack high end skating though.

Monahan is a bit of an enigma. He's a TL forward in terms of finishing ability. But he hasn't completely rounded out his game and doesn't have elite skating either.

Unlike some I don't think we lack top end talent. Our depth scoring has been abysmal this year though. Our team defense has been questionable. We've got lots of great pieces to build around though. A significant trade this summer should get us back on track imo and perhaps a coaching upgrade.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

What is a true first liner though? There's a difference between a first liner, and a superstar. You're not going to have a first line of Ovechkin, Crosby, and McDavid in this Salary Cap era. I would say with Lindholm's performance the two season's he's been here thus far, he's definitely a first liner.

Also I would argue about the team not having star players. Tkachuk was an All-Star this year, and Gaudreau has been for a few seasons also. The team does have star players, but this season they're not performing to their career bests, which is why the team is struggling a lot. Gaudreau last season was performing to Superstar quality for the first half of the season. For the rest of it, he was within star tier. But Gaudreau hasn't had superstar, or even star caliber performances in the playoffs. So the team is missing that star player that can still perform come the playoffs.

[FanIn80]

Here are the distinctions, as I've fleshed them out:

ETL: "Generational Talent" relative to the organization. In terms of Calgary, think: McDonald, Fleury, Iginla, Giordano. These are the "era-defining" players of an organization. Not just Top Line players, but Elite Top Line players you can build your team around. These guys make third-liners look like top-line players. Conroy was a 3C, but when paired with Iginla, he was a 1C. Tkachuk is probably the next in-line after Giordano, but he's not there yet.

TL: This is "legitimate" first-line talent. They don't just produce points, they can drive the play and make their linemates better. Malkin, Tarasenko, O'Riley, Kucherov, Marchand, etc. You won't necessarily build your team around their identity, but there's no doubt they can control a game when they're on the ice.

T6: These are the guys that can produce "Top-Line" stats, but can't really take over a game on their own or drive a #1 line in the face of top defensive assignments. They can do everything a TL can do when they're on the second line against secondary defensive assignments, but when it comes to top-line duty, they're complimentary assets. A TL can elevate a T6 to being a TL, but a T6 can only BE elevated to TL if they're matched with an actual TL.

That's how I've fleshed it out, and hopefully it makes sense.

In my eyes, I see our big-4 as such:

Tkachuck: TL (growing into ETL)

Gaudreau: T6
Lindholm: T6
Monahan: T6

There's nothing wrong with a T6. In fact T6s and TLs will often produce similar stats... the difference is that TLs can do it with lesser players, while T6s need to be paired with equal or higher talent. Excellent against secondary opposition; can't get it done on their own against primary opposition.

Now one thing in our favour is that these guys are all pretty young still. An argument can be made that our T6s are growing into TLs, but I don't personally believe they are there right now.

Hopefully, this all makes sense.

[powderjunkie]

I think one of the key things you're missing is the value differential between wingers and centres, and/or better consideration of two-way play.

TOR has three borderline ETL's and a T6, but only Tavares is a particularly complete player. Of course their problems run deeper than just that...

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Here are the distinctions, as I've fleshed them out:

ETL: "Generational Talent" relative to the organization. In terms of Calgary, think: McDonald, Fleury, Iginla, Giordano. These are the "era-defining" players of an organization. Not just Top Line players, but Elite Top Line players you can build your team around. These guys make third-liners look like top-line players. Conroy was a 3C, but when paired with Iginla, he was a 1C. Tkachuk is probably the next in-line after Giordano, but he's not there yet.

TL: This is "legitimate" first-line talent. They don't just produce points, they can drive the play and make their linemates better. Malkin, Tarasenko, O'Riley, Kucherov, Marchand, etc. You won't necessarily build your team around their identity, but there's no doubt they can control a game when they're on the ice.

T6: These are the guys that can produce "Top-Line" stats, but can't really take over a game on their own or drive a #1 line in the face of top defensive assignments. They can do everything a TL can do when they're on the second line against secondary defensive assignments, but when it comes to top-line duty, they're complimentary assets. A TL can elevate a T6 to being a TL, but a T6 can only BE elevated to TL if they're matched with an actual TL.

That's how I've fleshed it out, and hopefully it makes sense.

In my eyes, I see our big-4 as such:

Tkachuck: TL (growing into ETL)

Gaudreau: T6
Lindholm: T6
Monahan: T6

There's nothing wrong with a T6. In fact T6s and TLs will often produce similar stats... the difference is that TLs can do it with lesser players, while T6s need to be paired with equal or higher talent. Excellent against secondary opposition; can't get it done on their own against primary opposition.

Now one thing in our favour is that these guys are all pretty young still. An argument can be made that our T6s are growing into TLs, but I don't personally believe they are there right now.

Hopefully, this all makes sense.

You have some ludicrously high standards for an "ETL" then. Malkin was at worst a top-3 player in the game for a lot of his career, and him and Kucherov each have a Hart trophy.

[jer_33]

Teams need to check a lot of boxes to be considered elite. Teams can get by with an average offence IF you have exceptional defence/goaltending. Teams can suffer through an average PP, but you can't have a poor PK.

I made a spreadsheet a few years ago called the Contender Template. I won't bore you with all of it, but according to past Cup Final teams your average top six should point out like this:

89 pts (+) - 79 pts (+) - 66 pts (+)
62 pts (+) - 56 pts (+) - 44 pts (+)

Here's the Flames pace this season:

Gaudreau (67pts) - Monahan (55pts) - Lindholm (65pts)
Tkachuk (68pts) - Backlund (43pts) - Ryan (40pts)

Read into that what you wil...

[Manhattanboy]

I have always thought stellar goaltending and special teams will get you far into the playoffs.

[442scotty]

When compared to the bottom 25% of the league we have four top line players. When compared to the top 25% of the league I’m not sure we have any.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

You have some ludicrously high standards for an "ETL" then. Malkin was at worst a top-3 player in the game for a lot of his career, and him and Kucherov each have a Hart trophy.

Having a Hart trophy doesn’t make a player someone you build a team around. Would you build a team around Hall? I’d build a team around Iginla, and he doesn’t have a Hart.

You build around Crosby (ETL), you add in a Malkin (TL).
You build around Stamkos (ETL), you add in a Kucherov (TL).
You build around McKinnon (ETL), you add in a Ranta (TL).

I’m realizing now that most people’s arguments aren’t about me separating a Crosby above a Malkin, it’s really about what I’m calling each player type. That’s fair, I suppose. People have certain identities attached to “Elite Top Line” and “Top Six” etc. I need to come up with different names or people will continue to get stuck on that. Of course Malkin is an elite top line caliber player, in the traditional sense, but I’m not using the term in the traditional sense here. I’ve been very clear about what separates an ETL from a TL from a T6, but people are still thinking about traditional meanings vs my definitions. That’s on me, though. I’m talking about players in a different way, therefore I need a different way to classify them.

[GranteedEV]

Just... just... stop man.

Evgeni Malkin is probably one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just... just... stop man.

Evgeni Malkin is probably one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game.

Right now? What about when they won their last Cup? Was 2017 Malkin one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game? He was barely a top-ten center in the League in 2017.

These aren’t all-time career rankings.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Right now? What about when they won their last Cup? Was 2017 Malkin one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game?

The player who led all players in playoff scoring in 2017?

Nah, not him

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The player who led all players in playoff scoring in 2017?

Nah, not him

He also played the most games in the playoffs, and had Kessel as his winger. Crosby finished with 1pt behind Malkin, played one less game and had a rookie on his wing (they both had checkers as their other wingers).

If you want to build your championship team around 2017 Malkin, go ahead, but the reality is that team was built around Crosby. You know... the guy that won back-to-back playoff MVPs for both that season and the season before it.

[ST20]

lol the amount of disrespect Malkin gets is ridiculous... No disrespect to Gio but he's had one (maybe two) elite seasons and he is a generational talent while a surefire Hall of Famer, 14th all time points per game, 2 time art ross, Hart, Calder, Con Smyth and Ted Lindsay award winner is only a top line player? The team was built around both of them - they both took equal salary at lower than market value. Yes Crosby is better but that does nothing to diminish Malkin. This is not to mention that Malkin plays even better when Crosby is out.

Every single team in the league would start a franchise around Malkin. Also, for what it is worth, Hornqvist was not a bottom 6 player during their cup runs and has been a top 6 physical power forward his entire career. Look at his number in Nashville and Pittsburgh... it's only the last two years (not surprising given his age) that he's become a bottom 6 player.

[ST20]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

You build around Stamkos (ETL), you add in a Kucherov (TL).

Kucherov has been the better in every statistic (advance or not) for quite some time now... Malkin has been better than Stamkos for their entire careers... Maybe you just have an anti-Russian bias.

[FanIn80]

Yes, you got me. I hate Russians. My name is Don Cherry and I would rather build my team around Crosby than Malkin because Malkin’s a Russian. There’s no other possible reason for it than my burning hatred for Russians.

Ps. If you’re trying to win a Cup in 2020, why on Earth do you care that Malkin won an Art Ross however many years ago? Also, I’ve made it very clear that my classifications were not based (solely) on stats. I’m not going to repeat everything again. Either you get what I’m doing or you don’t. It’s fine either way, just please stop quoting stats and awards that have nothing to do with what I’m doing.

Gio won the Norris last year. Is he a Norris caliber defenceman this year? Nope. So if it turns out that having a Norris caliber d-man is a big part of winning a Cup, then is Gio winning a Norris last year going to impact that in any way this year?

[troutman]

I appreciate the effort. Chicago and LA also had a few elite players in key positions. You mostly get players like that in the draft.

CHI - Kane, Toews, Keith
LA - Kopitar, Doughty, Quick

What about goalies?

[Dienasty]

I think this conversation got sidetracked with "who falls in each bucket" and then Malkin specifically.

I agree that Malkin is in the elite category people were outraged that he wasn't a top 100 player ever, he won the Hart during the first cup run and then had a huge year the year following the second cup run so there is longevity. However, I think it would be easier if you defined what each bucket consists of.
For example
ETL - = >PPG and Corsi>55% (or some other metric)
Top 6 - = PPG to .75PPG and >55% corsi
Mid 6 - = .75 to .5PPG and >50% corsi

This will pull out personal biases on how you "rate" a player. If there is an outlier maybe dig a little deeper and figure out why and adjust your buckets.

[powderjunkie]

These things are fun exercises/time wasters. It's great that you post them, but half the reason you do so should be for feedback.

Hornqvist is not a B6, he's an M6.
Bozak is not a T6.
Does Oshie belong in the same group as JG/SM/EL? Is Tarasenko really a tier above those three?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Yes, you got me. I hate Russians. My name is Don Cherry and I would rather build my team around Crosby than Malkin because Malkin’s a Russian. There’s no other possible reason for it than my burning hatred for Russians.

Ps. If you’re trying to win a Cup in 2020, why on Earth do you care that Malkin won an Art Ross however many years ago? Also, I’ve made it very clear that my classifications were not based (solely) on stats. I’m not going to repeat everything again. Either you get what I’m doing or you don’t. It’s fine either way, just please stop quoting stats and awards that have nothing to do with what I’m doing.

Gio won the Norris last year. Is he a Norris caliber defenceman this year? Nope. So if it turns out that having a Norris caliber d-man is a big part of winning a Cup, then is Gio winning a Norris last year going to impact that in any way this year?

Malkin is still very much an elite player.