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Old 08-20-2021, 09:51 AM   #41
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I found this a bit interesting, that he skews a bit higher on O and a bit lower on D. Nothing alarming


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Old 08-20-2021, 09:59 AM   #42
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Chucky

Interesting to see the nosedive in the finishing number

https://twitter.com/user/status/1407150593119035393
If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:03 AM   #43
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What I like about these charts is that they seem to mostly match the eye test
They seem to match the eye test much better for forwards than defensemen.

Phaneuf: 90
Regehr: 10
Butler: 33
Hale: 44

And while this is obviously a small sample size, I have had that impression for a while. I think that part of it is that it does a better job evaluating and ranking offense than defense.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:03 AM   #44
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Not in the pretty card format but there was an article with some Lindholm stats here

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/06/08/h...up-contenders/




I wonder how this changes if that Tkachuk Lindholm Gaudreau line sticks
Going by last ten games of the season (arbitrary but I think that's close to when that line was formed).

Ranking centers ...

CF% 10th
xGF% 14th
HDCF% 22nd

Pts60 25th

Interesting to note that Backlund was right there at the end too ... 31st in CF%, 13th in xGF% and 6th in HDCF%
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:03 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by VilleN View Post
If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?

I believe it is the WAR over the 3 year period being considered

Last year the finishing number took a nosedive
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:08 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by VilleN View Post
If I'm reading that correctly this is the WAR% for 2018-2019? Based on the graph on the right, he was pretty bad last year, relatively speaking. Am I misreading that?
The average ... by looking 97 86 74 ... average 86
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:13 AM   #47
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All right some quick requests:

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Originally Posted by Samonadreau View Post
Interested to see some numbers from Lindholm.
The marvelous Elias Lindholm:
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Can we post Duncan Keith again just for fun?
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I don't think that card is fair to Regehr. That's near the end of his career when he could barely skate.

I want to see a card for 2007 Regehr.
Strange Brew nailed it: That was illustrating at time of trade, as with Phaneuf's. RTSS data isn't available before 2007-08 so 2006-07 Regehr isn't available. However, here is 2008 Regehr (sample size warning), 2009 Regehr (two-year weighted), and 2010 Regehr (full three-year weighted). Also finish line Regehr to bookend things.
Spoiler!
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:17 AM   #48
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All right some quick requests:


The marvelous Elias Lindholm:
Spoiler!



Duncan Keith for fun:
Spoiler!




Strange Brew nailed it: That was illustrating at time of trade, as with Phaneuf's. RTSS data isn't available before 2007-08 so 2006-07 Regehr isn't available. However, here is 2008 Regehr (sample size warning), 2009 Regehr (two-year weighted), and 2010 Regehr (full three-year weighted). Also finish line Regehr to bookend things.
Spoiler!
Interesting stuff for Regehr. I am surprised his EV defensive impact in 2008 wasn't nearly as large as I thought.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:57 AM   #49
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There was another article taking a look at where it went wrong for West and North teams who didnít make the playoffs

https://eprinkside.com/2021/05/14/no...h-investigates

This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:

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This team is not built for a rebuild, but itís hard to envision how this core could realistically win a Stanley Cup. Thereís potential for some real awkwardness at the expansion draft since Giordano is the natural exposure, and Gaudreauís future with the franchise is legitimately in doubt considering he has only one year left on his contract. Would they even be able to move Monahan if they wanted to? General manager Brad Treliving will have to navigate some rocky waters and really think about where this team will be in two years if he doesnít start making changes right away.
Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.

I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:06 AM   #50
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The average ... by looking 97 86 74 ... average 86
This is not correct. It is a three-year weighted average, adjusted for age, relative to other players at the position.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:08 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
Going by last ten games of the season (arbitrary but I think that's close to when that line was formed).

Ranking centers ...

CF% 10th
xGF% 14th
HDCF% 22nd

Pts60 25th

Interesting to note that Backlund was right there at the end too ... 31st in CF%, 13th in xGF% and 6th in HDCF%
Dude. The last 10 games were exhibition games for losers. That is not arbitrary that is playing the last 8 games against teams that were waiting for the playoffs or just going through the motions to get out of the season.

It is not likely that the Flames will have 8 games over this coming seasons 82 games that will have as disinterested in winning opposition.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:09 AM   #52
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Can someone do Nakladal?

Because it was VERY strange how good he looked but never got another sniff, curious to see if the stats match the eye test there


The Dawes buyout is so strange. His cap hit was almost league min and he was elite in the shootout
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:23 AM   #53
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This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:
Um, no. It doesnít

Quote:
Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.

I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
Not even remotely correct

The article noted that Gio, Andersson, Tkachuk, Monahan and Markstrom all had bad years. Thatís 5 key guys

The Flames are a bubble team that had xGF and xGA that were better than their actuals
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:31 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
This confuses the heck out of me. The article presents a bunch of charts that have the Flames as a strong analytics team last season and blames Gio Andersson, Monahan and Markstrom and then concludes:



Somehow Gaudreau Tanev Tkachuk Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane were stars but that didn't make a difference last year and likely will not this year.

I think that this pro-analytics article (along with the posting of how good the JFresh Flames were) is a solid argument that just says that throws up its hands and says analytics don't matter.
That wouldn't be my conclusion.

Analytics matter because they track how a team plays. If you're getting 40% of the shot attempts and scoring chances you're just not a good hockey team, but may be getting bailed out by your goaltending and/or finishing.

The Oilers have high finish rates because of their star power, and their offensive lean (blowing the zone / employing defenders that don't defend).

That's likely sustainable because that's what they are.

The Flames under Sutter were a dominant analytics team without the finish, and without the save. When that happens the analytics aren't wrong, nor would I say they don't matter ... but the talent wasn't there to do the "average" job expected from what you created and what you gave up.

Not a rosy picture for the Flames unless you thought there was some bad puck luck etc factoring.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:34 AM   #55
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Dude. The last 10 games were exhibition games for losers. That is not arbitrary that is playing the last 8 games against teams that were waiting for the playoffs or just going through the motions to get out of the season.

It is not likely that the Flames will have 8 games over this coming seasons 82 games that will have as disinterested in winning opposition.
But beyond that what are you trying to say? Someone asked how he finished with better linemates and I gave him the data. Didn't make any projections forward to next season etc at all.

You're talking into a mirror.

Anyone else hate "Dude" or "Bud"? ... gives me the shivers
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:36 AM   #56
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Some notes for those unfamiliar:

- Percentiles are not linear! The difference between a 90th percentile player and an 80th percentile player is much larger than the difference between 80 and 70, or 55 and 45. Good illustration here:

- Patrick Bacon found that Replacement level is 19%. That is, anyone below 19% adds negative value to the lineup.
- The absolute worst players in the league are almost as detrimental to a team as the best players are positive.
- One-dimensional defensive defenceman and forwards are nearly always underrated by these metrics, but not to a huge extent. The opposite for one-dimensional offensive talents.
- With hockey following a Pareto distribution of 19/81, the rule of thumb is the top 20% of players in the league contribute 80% of the wins. Pro-rated to an equal team level, the top 4 players on each team account for 80% of the team's relative strength.
- With that in mind, it is extremely difficult to become a legitimate contender without high-end talent, particularly at the centre position.
- Free agent splashes on mid-roster players seldom live up to their contract because they get premium money for middling performance, especially once accounting for age curves. Well managed teams identify these players before they become "mainstream" to extract maximum value. Poorly run teams pay a premium for past performance, often to declining players. July 1, 2016 is the perfect example of this.

- Do nearly whatever it takes to obtain and retain elite talent, and surround them with cost-effective two-way depth. Paying elite money, especially with term, for non-elite players is, by far, the most sub-optimal move a team can make (Hi, Darnell Nurse!).
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Last edited by united; 08-20-2021 at 11:38 AM.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:38 AM   #57
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That wouldn't be my conclusion.

Analytics matter because they track how a team plays. If you're getting 40% of the shot attempts and scoring chances you're just not a good hockey team, but may be getting bailed out by your goaltending and/or finishing.

The Oilers have high finish rates because of their star power, and their offensive lean (blowing the zone / employing defenders that don't defend).

That's likely sustainable because that's what they are.

The Flames under Sutter were a dominant analytics team without the finish, and without the save. When that happens the analytics aren't wrong, nor would I say they don't matter ... but the talent wasn't there to do the "average" job expected from what you created and what you gave up.

Not a rosy picture for the Flames unless you thought there was some bad puck luck etc factoring.

It could be rosy if you look at the guys singled out and believe that
- Tkachukís finishing numbers (which were low for whatever reason) revert to the mean
- Monahan who was known to be injured rebounds
- Markstrom returns to form
- Andersson is somewhere between where he was last year and the previous
- that Darryl can help with some of the above
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:39 AM   #58
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It would be neat if it was possible to do an aggregate of these stats for the whole team over the last 7 yrs to have some sort of statistical measure of how Treliving is actually doing with the team. Id love to compare it to some of Sutter's teams to. It could actually lend some validity to the job he is doing or not doing well.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:43 AM   #59
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But beyond that what are you trying to say? Someone asked how he finished with better linemates and I gave him the data. Didn't make any projections forward to next season etc at all.

You're talking into a mirror.

Anyone else hate "Dude" or "Bud"? ... gives me the shivers
Sorry about Dude. I thought Bongo was trite.
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Old 08-20-2021, 11:45 AM   #60
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It could be rosy if you look at the guys singled out and believe that
- Tkachukís finishing numbers (which were low for whatever reason) revert to the mean
- Monahan who was known to be injured rebounds
- Markstrom returns to form
- Andersson is somewhere between where he was last year and the previous
- that Darryl can help with some of the above
Absolutely.

And I think we see some of that. Honestly not a lot went right last year outside of Tanev and Hanifin popping.

Probably a mixed bag of some working out and some not, but guessing the happy count will be higher this season than last ... especially with the Sutter factor being a huge one.
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