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Old 07-20-2015, 05:41 PM   #1
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Icon48 Behind the scenes 2015 draft videos. UPD: Bruins video is now out.

Behind the scenes draft videos are coming out.

First is the Blue Jackets



The Leafs asked for #8, #34, #38, #58 from Columbus for #4 if Arizona didn't take Hanifin. Columbus passed.

Shero wanted 8, 34 and 129 for Columbus to move up to 6.

Carolina refused to move back from 5 to 8.
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Last edited by sureLoss; 09-17-2015 at 09:20 PM.
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Old 07-20-2015, 05:58 PM   #2
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Thanks for this. I'm a big fan of these. Columbus does an awesome job as far as media content goes
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Old 07-20-2015, 06:32 PM   #3
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I do too. I love these videos.
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Old 07-20-2015, 07:17 PM   #4
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Jarmo Kekalainen kind of looks like he wants to take over the world.
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Old 07-20-2015, 07:35 PM   #5
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Are they doing every team?

Can't wait to see Bostons video, or GMBT doing his thing.
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Old 07-20-2015, 08:29 PM   #6
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Darn, I was hoping for it to be ours. But those tend to take longer.
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Old 07-20-2015, 11:24 PM   #7
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He says 77% chance he gets the guy he wants at 8 (werenski). How is he generating that probability? That 77% chance was the same before and after the Eichel pickv (duh). I say that because if he was running some model on his laptop, the odds would have changed slightly after the Eichel pick.
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Old 07-20-2015, 11:50 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon View Post
He says 77% chance he gets the guy he wants at 8 (werenski). How is he generating that probability? That 77% chance was the same before and after the Eichel pickv (duh). I say that because if he was running some model on his laptop, the odds would have changed slightly after the Eichel pick.
It is some internal probability formula for sure but it was also significantly weighted towards the rankings.

McDavid
Eichel
Hanifin
Strome
Marner

Those guys were locks to go in the top 8. They knew they wouldn't get one of those guys.

That leaves a 1 in 3 chance of getting Werenski. With Provorov's stock increasing significantly days before the draft, it was safe to assume Philly or NJ was taking him, increasing the chance to 66%. I dont know how they got an extra 11% but that is likely the scenario.

I remember last year (or the year before) Columbus had a value chart for every pick in the draft. If the sum of the values totaled more then the sum of the values they were sending out, they did the deal unless there was a guy still on the board they really liked. I thought that was a really cool idea to maximize value in trades. Columbus is building their team the right way and could be pretty scary in the next few years.
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Old 07-20-2015, 11:59 PM   #9
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So much fun to see the business side of the league. What a rush it must be in the days leading up to and the draft itself as a GM.
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Old 07-20-2015, 11:59 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon View Post
He says 77% chance he gets the guy he wants at 8 (werenski). How is he generating that probability? That 77% chance was the same before and after the Eichel pickv (duh). I say that because if he was running some model on his laptop, the odds would have changed slightly after the Eichel pick.
Why would his odds change? Eichel going 2nd was 100% probability.
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Old 07-21-2015, 01:27 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon View Post
He says 77% chance he gets the guy he wants at 8 (werenski). How is he generating that probability? That 77% chance was the same before and after the Eichel pickv (duh). I say that because if he was running some model on his laptop, the odds would have changed slightly after the Eichel pick.
Interestingly, the number lines up really closely to the Bayesian probability NHL draft tool someone posted a while back.

http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot...lity-tool.html

If you go to the "Team" tab, and select Columbus as the team, Werenski has a 78.96% chance of being available. I wonder if they are just using this. Why reinvent the wheel?
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Old 07-21-2015, 04:51 AM   #12
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Some more background information from Aaron Portzline (Bluejackets beat writer):

The Blue Jackets had Werenski ranked 4th after McDavid, Eichel, and Hanifin. They had Werenski ranked higher than Provorov.

It was sort of unclear from the video, but the guy Kekalinen gets up from the table to talk to is Hextall. Hextall had an offer from the Sharks to trade down from 7 to 9 and was "fishing" for some insight on who Columbus was taking at 8.
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Old 07-21-2015, 05:20 AM   #13
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The Blues are tight with the U. of Michigan, Red Berenson is the coach, former Blue and is close friends with JD.

Not likely the only reason they liked Werenski so much but a little more info on a player never hurts.
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Old 07-21-2015, 08:06 AM   #14
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So from the video is it safe to say that the Leafs knew Columbus wanted a dman, specifically Hanifin, and that's why they prefaced the trade offer saying that if Arizona didn't take Hanifin they would offer them the deal? That's the only part I didn't really get, Columbus must have spoken to Toronto before and told them they wanted to move up to take Hanifin?
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Old 07-21-2015, 04:16 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darthma View Post
Interestingly, the number lines up really closely to the Bayesian probability NHL draft tool someone posted a while back.

http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot...lity-tool.html

If you go to the "Team" tab, and select Columbus as the team, Werenski has a 78.96% chance of being available. I wonder if they are just using this. Why reinvent the wheel?
Now we are talking. Thanks for digging that out. That is exactly the type of model that they were using.

And Fire, as for question about eichel and 100% certainty. That is why i said "duh". I am pretty certain that you know that it isn't 100%.
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Old 07-21-2015, 04:49 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darthma View Post
Interestingly, the number lines up really closely to the Bayesian probability NHL draft tool someone posted a while back.

http://donttellmeaboutheart.blogspot...lity-tool.html

If you go to the "Team" tab, and select Columbus as the team, Werenski has a 78.96% chance of being available. I wonder if they are just using this. Why reinvent the wheel?
Barzal was available with our 15th. I know this probability is based on some media predraft rankings, but he should have been gone by then based on this list. Interesting to see that.
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Old 07-21-2015, 06:12 PM   #17
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0.0044 chance Barzal is available at 16 lol
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:05 PM   #18
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I know they are basing that model on probabilities but seriously they are showing McDavid as 41% available at #2 and 6% available at #3. Then they have Eichel as 32% available at #3 and 5% at #4. That is just dumb.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:47 PM   #19
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Quote:
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I know they are basing that model on probabilities but seriously they are showing McDavid as 41% available at #2 and 6% available at #3. Then they have Eichel as 32% available at #3 and 5% at #4. That is just dumb.
Not dumb if you understand the methodology, it's not just an average of draft rankings:

Quote:
This is not simply just an average of projections but instead a model based on Bayesian inference. Bayesian models begin with a 'prior' probability distribution, used as a reasonable first guess. Then that guess is refined as we add new information. It works the same way your brain does (hopefully). As more information is added, your prior belief is either confirmed or revised to some degree. The degree to which it is refined is a function of how reliable the new information is. This draft projection model works the same way.
That's why they're not 100% to go 1, 2, because the model uses prior probability. Granted he did post a revised model with them being 100% to go 1, 2.
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Old 09-17-2015, 09:19 PM   #20
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Bruins video is out:

http://video.bruins.nhl.com/videocen...834658&lang=en



draft day stuff starts around the 11:00 minute mark

Didn't go too much into the Hamilton trade and how it broke down.

Bruins tried to package 2 first rounders to move up from 13, no takers.

Also it looks like it was Bruins scout Keith Gretzky pushing to grab some of the controversial 1st round picks early.
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