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Old 07-13-2018, 01:14 PM   #41
yourbestfriend
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As others have mentioned, based on the contracts that some other players have gotten recently (Miller, Wennberg, Drouin, Zibanejad etc) it would be hard to see Lindholm getting >$5M.

I'm going to guess $4.5M x 6years.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:18 PM   #42
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Looking at the other key contracts:

Expires in 6 years: Backlund

Expires in 5 years: Monahan, Neal

Expires in 4 years: Gaudreau, Giordano

Expires in 1 year: Tkachuk

So, if they get a 5 year term for Lindholm, he'll expire at the same time as Monahan and Neal and at the same time, will need to deal with Gaudreau and Tkachuk having bigger contracts than they have now. I'd expect Giordano to either be cheaper at that point after re-signing for his last contract.

If they can get a 6 year term, Lindholm would expire at the same time as Backlund, with Monahan having a new, higher contract, along with also having Gaudreau, Tkachuk and potentially Giordano.

Without being able to predict new players added, etc. I think the Flames push for 6 years as they'd only be dealing with Backlund as a core UFA expiring at the same time.
Would also be interesting to see where Lindholm and Backlund are in 6 years. A lot of people are penciling Lindholm in a center that would bring a line similar to Backlunds, so these would be two players ideal to negotiate against each other.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:20 PM   #43
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4.775 x 6

Book it.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:21 PM   #44
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My prediction will be Lindholm does not make more than Brodie's $4.65. Gut feeling and nothing else.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:21 PM   #45
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Backlund will be 35 in 6 years. I wouldn't worry about those negotiations. As he will be cheap or he will be gone.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:25 PM   #46
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Backlund will be 35 by that time. Not much to negotiate against each other when Backlund will likely be in line for something like Plekanec's performance based contract this year.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:25 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor View Post
Backlund will be 35 in 6 years. I wouldn't worry about those negotiations. As he will be cheap or he will be gone.
That's actually a great point I forgot.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:27 PM   #48
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Would also be interesting to see where Lindholm and Backlund are in 6 years. A lot of people are penciling Lindholm in a center that would bring a line similar to Backlunds, so these would be two players ideal to negotiate against each other.
Backlund is 6 years older than Lindholm though - by the time their contracts are over, there is little chance that they will be competing for similar roles.

Looking at the previous breakdown, a 5 year contract may not be a terrible idea - you can essentially decide which between Monahan and Lindholm you want to keep, and hopefully be able to trade the other one for a king's ransom the year before. It's easy for us as fans to get attached to the players we have, but for the long-term sustainability of the organization, sometimes it's good to trade a star here or there for strong future returns.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:32 PM   #49
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6 x 5.1 or
5 x 4.75
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:36 PM   #50
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Going to be really hard for Flames to negotiate much of a discount here. He just got traded here and Flames showed their interest with the package they gave up. Don’t expect the deal to be as team friendly as JT Miller’s.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:38 PM   #51
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For fun, that Matt Cane guy predicted the following AAVs for a Lindholm contract based on his algorithm:

1 year: $4,308,850
2 years: $4,553,536
3 years: $4,576,067
4 years: $4,973,105
5 years: $4,978,273
6 years: $5,060,752

7 years: $5,113,973

For reference, his model suggested:
  • James Neal 5 year contract would have a $5,853,567 AAV (off by $104k).
  • Derek Ryan 3 year contract would have a $3,059,723 AAV (off by $65k).
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:50 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC View Post
For fun, that Matt Cane guy predicted the following AAVs for a Lindholm contract based on his algorithm:

1 year: $4,308,850
2 years: $4,553,536
3 years: $4,576,067
4 years: $4,973,105
5 years: $4,978,273
6 years: $5,060,752

7 years: $5,113,973

For reference, his model suggested:
  • James Neal 5 year contract would have a $5,853,567 AAV (off by $104k).
  • Derek Ryan 3 year contract would have a $3,059,723 AAV (off by $65k).
How close did recent contract comparables such as JT Miller and Hertl come in at?

Those two will be higher than Lindholm but are more in the demographic and were RFAs.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:52 PM   #53
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How close did recent contract comparables such as JT Miller and Hertl come in at?

Those two will be higher than Linholm but are more in the demographic and were RFAs.
JT Miller: Actual 5 year AAV: $5,250,000. Predicted: $6,041,245
Hertl: Actual 4 year AAV: $5,625,000. Predicted: $5,065,369
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:53 PM   #54
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6M for Miller. 5M for Hertl.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:54 PM   #55
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Hertl is the one that worries me, because he is probably fairly comparable, and SJ gave him too much.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:55 PM   #56
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Quote:
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JT Miller: Actual 5 year AAV: $5,250,000. Predicted: $6,041,245
Hertl: Actual 4 year AAV: $5,625,000. Predicted: $5,065,369
Those predictions meet the eye test as Hertl seemed high for a 4 year and Miller seemed touch low on his.

Safe to say we should be around 5M hopefully for 6 years on Lindholm.

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Old 07-13-2018, 02:01 PM   #57
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If we could get a young top 6 forward for 5 or 6 years at 5 million dollars its an amazing bargain for the life of the contract and for the next few years Calgary could have the most money bargain top 6 in the league and no players with a scary 8 million or more contract.




Also a 5 million dollar deal would put the Flames at about 72 million with Hathaway, Janks, Hanifin and Kulak left to sign


So Hathaway $1 million
Kulak $1 million
Janks 2 million
Hanifin $4.75


8.75 to the roughly 72, so we'd be at about 80, which means a Stone has to go or a TB buyout.


Also if we signed everyone we'd be at 15 forwards, 7 defensemen, 1 goalie so we'd certainly have to dump a couple of forwards.
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:08 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
If we could get a young top 6 forward for 5 or 6 years at 5 million dollars its an amazing bargain for the life of the contract and for the next few years Calgary could have the most money bargain top 6 in the league and no players with a scary 8 million or more contract.




Also a 5 million dollar deal would put the Flames at about 72 million with Hathaway, Janks, Hanifin and Kulak left to sign


So Hathaway $1 million
Kulak $1 million
Janks 2 million
Hanifin $4.75


8.75 to the roughly 72, so we'd be at about 80, which means a Stone has to go or a TB buyout.
That would actually be pretty much exactly the cap with those cap hits but you're missing a goalie.

65.9M right now with 11 forwards (no reason to count Quine at this point), 5 defense (Prout being the 7th), 1 goalie.

Signing those contracts would mean 14 forwards, 7 defense, 1 goalie at 79.65.

Would be conceivable to sign a goalie at ~900K, and waive Lazar for example and be just at the cap.
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:18 PM   #59
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Did we forget about Rittich? Isn't he arbitration eligible as well?
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Old 07-13-2018, 02:21 PM   #60
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After the rest of the spots are filled there will be about 4 million to sign Hanifin which won't be enough for a long term so bridge unless they Buyout Brouwer.
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