I've been talking to a lot of people lately, and the amount of pessimism in the industry right now is pretty dejecting. In the likely event that the Conservatives lose the election, most think the industry is done in Alberta.
Maybe it's fear mongering, but these have been personal conversations with people I wouldn't consider to be hard conservatives.
The Following User Says Thank You to Ashasx For This Useful Post:
I've been talking to a lot of people lately, and the amount of pessimism in the industry right now is pretty dejecting. In the likely event that the Conservatives lose the election, most think the industry is done in Alberta.
Maybe it's fear mongering, but these have been personal conversations with people I wouldn't consider to be hard conservatives.
We can't even twin an existing pipeline let alone build new ones. and the government bungled the file on TMX so bad that they had to buy a project that a company was willing to build and fund.
At this point, another 4 years of Trudeau will probably lead to the end of energy capital investment especially in Alberta. We might get dribs and drabs here and there, but the mega projects will go away.
If its a minority government propped up by the Greens or the NDP it gets worse.
If the Liberal's win again you will see Saskatchewan and Alberta erupt in terms of separatist sentiment.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
There is a question on whether Mega Projects make sense at today’s oil price and a 25 yr life span of a project. Why would I invest in Canada into something that has utility scale paybacks periods when I can invest in the US shale. Low initial Capital, quick payback, risk spread out over many wells. Even without the government, takeaway issues, and the Canadian regulatory the advances in shale tech allowed for a very attractive place to park capital relative to Canada.
I do not believe that under any set regulatory environment that additional mines would have been built. The 10 billion dollar projects ended with Fort Hills. Now the Billion dollar SAGD plants were likely going to continue slowly but certainly not a the rate of the previous 10 years. Imperial was still approving those prior to Curtailememt.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
There is so much misinformation and misdirection in the comments. I know reddit's opinion and the general public don't always correlate, but this is frustrating.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Ashasx For This Useful Post:
We can't even twin an existing pipeline let alone build new ones. and the government bungled the file on TMX so bad that they had to buy a project that a company was willing to build and fund.
At this point, another 4 years of Trudeau will probably lead to the end of energy capital investment especially in Alberta. We might get dribs and drabs here and there, but the mega projects will go away.
If its a minority government propped up by the Greens or the NDP it gets worse.
If the Liberal's win again you will see Saskatchewan and Alberta erupt in terms of separatist sentiment.
After Harper shut the door on energy trusts, mega projects are all that is left. Meaningfully, anyhow.
Then his government threw cold water on SOE investment, and refused to deal with the issues on the West Coast like Prentice wanted to. As such the dominoes started to fall on those and now we see the consequences. Seriously, read Triple Crown... it is fantastic and enlightening.
The Liberals, as ham fisted as they've been, are at least not assuming that the same treaty based legal processes that work in AB & SK will not work in BC. I think they're right about that, but I do not agree with how they're trying to get it done because it still doesn't really set us up for future expansions into the Asian Pacific Basin heavy crude and LNG markets. We will see the consequences for THOSE decisions in another 8 or so years.
And it is frustrating that the industry doesn't admit this and promote legitimate long term ideas. They're so short term focused, and want a government that WILL try to put the west under treaty and force projects through the supreme court. That's the role the right is trying to play, and the rhetoric and lack of education in the general public adds to us just eating it all up like it will actually work. It ain't cowboys and indians anymore.
These aren't the stewards our provincial bounty needs.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to SeeGeeWhy For This Useful Post:
After Harper shut the door on energy trusts, mega projects are all that is left. Meaningfully, anyhow.
Then his government threw cold water on SOE investment, and refused to deal with the issues on the West Coast like Prentice wanted to. As such the dominoes started to fall on those and now we see the consequences. Seriously, read Triple Crown... it is fantastic and enlightening.
The Liberals, as ham fisted as they've been, are at least not assuming that the same treaty based legal processes that work in AB & SK will not work in BC. I think they're right about that, but I do not agree with how they're trying to get it done because it still doesn't really set us up for future expansions into the Asian Pacific Basin heavy crude and LNG markets. We will see the consequences for THOSE decisions in another 8 or so years.
And it is frustrating that the industry doesn't admit this and promote legitimate long term ideas. They're so short term focused, and want a government that WILL try to put the west under treaty and force projects through the supreme court. That's the role the right is trying to play, and the rhetoric and lack of education in the general public adds to us just eating it all up like it will actually work. It ain't cowboys and indians anymore.
These aren't the stewards our provincial bounty needs.
This is a very insightful post, and particularly, this paragraph. A lot of Albertans do not understand the unique constitutional situation in BC viz-a-viz Indigenous land rights. There is no consultation template or process that can simply be applied within a set timeline with an assured outcome.
The Following User Says Thank You to peter12 For This Useful Post:
After Harper shut the door on energy trusts, mega projects are all that is left. Meaningfully, anyhow.
Then his government threw cold water on SOE investment, and refused to deal with the issues on the West Coast like Prentice wanted to. As such the dominoes started to fall on those and now we see the consequences. Seriously, read Triple Crown... it is fantastic and enlightening.
The Liberals, as ham fisted as they've been, are at least not assuming that the same treaty based legal processes that work in AB & SK will not work in BC. I think they're right about that, but I do not agree with how they're trying to get it done because it still doesn't really set us up for future expansions into the Asian Pacific Basin heavy crude and LNG markets. We will see the consequences for THOSE decisions in another 8 or so years.
And it is frustrating that the industry doesn't admit this and promote legitimate long term ideas. They're so short term focused, and want a government that WILL try to put the west under treaty and force projects through the supreme court. That's the role the right is trying to play, and the rhetoric and lack of education in the general public adds to us just eating it all up like it will actually work. It ain't cowboys and indians anymore.
These aren't the stewards our provincial bounty needs.
i don't know if you ever stepped foot on an energy trust facility. They were down right scary. I went to Pennwest battery near Sylvan lake that was only two years old. It looked like it was 30 years old and 6" sour gas lines with threaded pipe.
I never felt safe when working with Trusts. They always cut corners to move money back to the investors. Harper did the right thing when he shut them down. People would have died.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to guzzy For This Useful Post:
This is a very insightful post, and particularly, this paragraph. A lot of Albertans do not understand the unique constitutional situation in BC viz-a-viz Indigenous land rights. There is no consultation template or process that can simply be applied within a set timeline with an assured outcome.
Thank you.
I think that we are quite bad at the energy industry, despite its importance to our economy. Not understanding fundamental structural realities like this being a prime argument as to why.
If we can't get this around our heads and act accordingly, why should anyone else in the confederation outside of Alberta trust Albertans to steward her resources appropriately? Its no doubt why we are looked at so unfavourably in the ROC, and can't negotiate deals that work. We reap what we sow.
Picking up our ball and leaving the country isn't going to automatically improve that fundamental understanding, either. I'm still left wondering how we would be better off outside Canada.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to SeeGeeWhy For This Useful Post:
i don't know if you ever stepped foot on an energy trust facility. They were down right scary. I went to Pennwest battery near Sylvan lake that was only two years old. It looked like it was 30 years old and 6" sour gas lines with threaded pipe.
I never felt safe when working with Trusts. They always cut corners to move money back to the investors. Harper did the right thing when he shut them down. People would have died.
Harper didn't shut them down for safety reasons though did he? I thought it was a tax issue.
I think that we are quite bad at the energy industry, despite its importance to our economy. Not understanding fundamental structural realities like this being a prime argument as to why.
If we can't get this around our heads and act accordingly, why should anyone else in the confederation outside of Alberta trust Albertans to steward her resources appropriately? Its no doubt why we are looked at so unfavourably in the ROC, and can't negotiate deals that work. We reap what we sow.
Picking up our ball and leaving the country isn't going to automatically improve that fundamental understanding, either. I'm still left wondering how we would be better off outside Canada.
When I left the industry back in 2017, there was a grudging, but growing acceptance that the Calgary perspective had messed most things up beyond repair given the paradigm, and that a new way forward had to be forged. Unfortunately, I think that arrogance from the energy sector and incompetence has done more damage than can be undone by an energy-friendly government - whatever that means.
I am still so frustrated to see conspiracy clowns like Krause continue to provide excuses to an out-of-touch sector.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to peter12 For This Useful Post:
Harper didn't shut them down for safety reasons though did he? I thought it was a tax issue.
It was pure tax. Basically when you had BCE (Bell) looking to convert to an income trust for the tax purposes, they felt that they couldn't let it happen and killed them. Safety was never mentioned.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Slava For This Useful Post:
i don't know if you ever stepped foot on an energy trust facility. They were down right scary. I went to Pennwest battery near Sylvan lake that was only two years old. It looked like it was 30 years old and 6" sour gas lines with threaded pipe.
I never felt safe when working with Trusts. They always cut corners to move money back to the investors. Harper did the right thing when he shut them down. People would have died.
No kidding, the liabilities that dot this province are truly one of my other major misgivings about our collective ability to "do things right" with respect to our resources. We are totally dependent on resource revenue economically and for our identity, yet seem to be completely oblivious to its realities.
My time in O&G as a production engineer was with Baytex and Pengrowth. Got to see Baytex convert into a trust and spin off Crew, and then got to see how one of the first trusts worked and what happened to it when the model was made illegal. Then I got to work for a SAGD start up that more or less sold itself to a Chinese SOE, and how ludicrous all of that was.
Not interested in working in the Alberta patch ever again.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
The Following User Says Thank You to SeeGeeWhy For This Useful Post:
This is a very insightful post, and particularly, this paragraph. A lot of Albertans do not understand the unique constitutional situation in BC viz-a-viz Indigenous land rights. There is no consultation template or process that can simply be applied within a set timeline with an assured outcome.
So what's the solution?
The desired outcome is that we need a consultation template or process that can be applied within a set timeline with an assured outcome.
How can this be achieved?
Can we change the constitution? Make new laws? Re-conquer the people and force them to sign treaties? Any other crazy ideas that can get us closer to where we need to be?
When I left the industry back in 2017, there was a grudging, but growing acceptance that the Calgary perspective had messed most things up beyond repair given the paradigm, and that a new way forward had to be forged. Unfortunately, I think that arrogance from the energy sector and incompetence has done more damage than can be undone by an energy-friendly government - whatever that means.
I am still so frustrated to see conspiracy clowns like Krause continue to provide excuses to an out-of-touch sector.
In 2017, the industry was buying in to the "social license" concept. Every conference I went to talked about how social license was key to getting things built, and that we have to be good corporate actors. The dissenters in the crowd definitely fought against it, but the big keynote speakers pushed that concept continuously.
You putting the blame entirely on the shoulders of the energy sector and "incompetence" is a complete joke. The things that have happened in the last 2 years regarding what happens when we tried the social license route is what has caused this rift in the last little while. Even Notley herself switched gears and went pretty hard on the offensive after realizing the entire concept that she pushed, and got massive buy-in from the industry, was completely ineffective.
The blame lies squarely on the other side of the table - it's clear now that there is no compromising. So while I can agree now that the energy sector appears arrogant, this was not the case in 2017.
But that social licensing got Transmountain approved. So it worked as intended. You'll always have NIMBY's, but the important thing was getting the Federal Government on board, and they were.
The Following User Says Thank You to Oling_Roachinen For This Useful Post:
In 2017, the industry was buying in to the "social license" concept. Every conference I went to talked about how social license was key to getting things built, and that we have to be good corporate actors. The dissenters in the crowd definitely fought against it, but the big keynote speakers pushed that concept continuously.
You putting the blame entirely on the shoulders of the energy sector and "incompetence" is a complete joke. The things that have happened in the last 2 years regarding what happens when we tried the social license route is what has caused this rift in the last little while. Even Notley herself switched gears and went pretty hard on the offensive after realizing the entire concept that she pushed, and got massive buy-in from the industry, was completely ineffective.
The blame lies squarely on the other side of the table - it's clear now that there is no compromising. So while I can agree now that the energy sector appears arrogant, this was not the case in 2017.
Dude, I was one of the consultants who helped roll out social license. It was a complete joke and considered to be by everyone involved. No one wanted to acknowledge the unique constitutional issues in BC, or the growing evident problems with the regulatory bodies, or the fact that any support from the federal government was a paper-tiger. It was lazy, ham-fisted, and implemented by a bunch of CEOs with massive self-entitlement and no idea how the rest of this country works.
The Following User Says Thank You to peter12 For This Useful Post:
We can bicker all day, but look at Standing Rock. That is why they are eating is for breakfast. We need leadership that doesn’t freeze up on this stuff. A pipe is operating through standing rock. Protests be damned.
Giving into the Green Party is not the right answer. It is a total farce we are in this bind.
When I left the industry back in 2017, there was a grudging, but growing acceptance that the Calgary perspective had messed most things up beyond repair given the paradigm, and that a new way forward had to be forged. Unfortunately, I think that arrogance from the energy sector and incompetence has done more damage than can be undone by an energy-friendly government - whatever that means.
I am still so frustrated to see conspiracy clowns like Krause continue to provide excuses to an out-of-touch sector.
I'm interested to hear your perspective on how Krause is a conspiracy clown, it's a proven fact that Canada's oil sector has been specifically targeted by American NGOs and "charities".
The Following User Says Thank You to DiracSpike For This Useful Post:
