If Trump wins a 2nd term and the U.S. inevitably sinks deeper into authoritarianism, I wonder if we finally start to see a mass exodus of people packing up their families and leaving the U.S. to start new and better lives in more democratic countries.
I know a lot of Americans were saying "that's it, I'm moving to Canada" after the last election, but of course nobody actually followed through at the time. I'm betting this time people will be much more serious about looking into their immigration options. I certainly would.
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There is certainly an argument to be made for the possibility of civil war. I do expect we will see violence, but if the US transitions to authoritarianism, I think the transition will be reasonably quick and the large majority of people will either be on-board with King Orange, or they will be silent.
Here's my fan fiction...
On November 5th, Trump appears to have the upper hand in election results. He successfully blocks mail in votes from being counted in enough jurisdictions to win/steal the election. The Dems actually grow a pair and refuse to concede defeat this time. Russia, China, North Korea, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Brazil and maybe India all call Trump to congratulate him and recognize his victory, thus giving him international support. The EU and most other developed Western democracies try putting pressure on Trump to conduct a valid count of all votes.
Biden and other high profile Democrats set up a government-in-exile in France. It can't be anywhere close, or in a weak nation, otherwise Trump would go in and take them out. From there, the Dems try to pursue removing Trump through legal channels and gaining international support.
As days turn into weeks, and weeks turn in to months, Biden manages to get international support from allies. Meanwhile at home, civil unrest escalates and extremists on both sides become guilty of terrorism. As the economy tanks and police fail to receive pay cheques, many just go home. Trump is then compelled to use the military nationwide to quell unrest (he already tested this!).
Various left and right groups form militias, which eventually become supplemented by foreign mercenaries, most from Latin America, but some from Canada and even overseas. Foreign arms start to trickle in from south of the border, some possibly funded by foreign governments. Some of these militias form into "rogue" units just there to plunder and even start fighting each other. Massacres ensue.
Many military personnel become personally conflicted about participating in military operations at home and begin deserting, and even defecting to the other factions. Suddenly, these factions have military training and some weaponry at their disposal. Civilians begin migrating to regions of the country that they side with as matter get worse. Due to the increase of foreign mercenaries, some of the extreme right wing factions begin crossing the border into Mexico to plunder villages. Mexican paramilitaries retaliate causing an international incident.
At this point, the EU and other Western democracies put sanctions on the U.S. Meanwhile, Russia starts funneling arms through Venezuela and Cuba to be distributed to pro-Trump paramilitaries.
As anarchy ensues, the U.S. Constitution becomes essentially unenforceable leading some states declaring independence. California declares a republic and is quickly in union with Nevada and Arizona. Texas declares a Republic, and annexes much of the mid-west right up to Minnesota. New Mexico becomes disputed between California and Texas. The northeast states form a loose union of autonomous states. Much of the southeast becomes fiefdoms and free-ports ruled by oligarchs. As new lines are drawn in the sand, fighting dies down and the new order is agreed upon.
In the aftermath, Canada offers an Anschluss to Alaska, Washington and Oregon. Just because every story needs a happy ending.
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If Trump wins a 2nd term and the U.S. inevitably sinks deeper into authoritarianism, I wonder if we finally start to see a mass exodus of people packing up their families and leaving the U.S. to start new and better lives in more democratic countries.
I know a lot of Americans were saying "that's it, I'm moving to Canada" after the last election, but of course nobody actually followed through at the time. I'm betting this time people will be much more serious about looking into their immigration options.
After RBG died, I sent a text to my friend in Seattle, jokingly proposing that we could both divorce our wives and then enter sham marriages with the other's now-ex wife so they could both become Canadian citizens.
He replied that he and his wife had already been looking for several weeks at literally every other first world nation to see where they can emigrate to. They have enough points to legally move to New Zealand as skilled immigrants, he said, but they both need local job offers first (keeping their current US-based jobs and working remotely from NZ doesn't cut it). He said he wasn't joking. Even if Biden wins, he said, they've concluded that the United States is no longer a country they love and a place where they want to raise their children.
Of course, that's a very privileged position. The vast majority of Americans who want to get out are unable to do so for a variety of reasons.
American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November
Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Okay, you're going to have to explain how this is going to happen. Contrary to what you're told, this country is not divided along geographic lines. We are a purple country. Republicans live right next door to Democrats and vice versa. We are split ideologically, but people are not going to take up arms against their neighbor just because one voted for Trump and another for Biden. This just doesn't make sense. So how is this civil war supposed to happen? There's a lot of silly things being said right now about this very real possibility, a lot by people hoping really hard for this possibility, but they have no real idea how this is going to come to fruition. So please, lend a brother a hand and tell me how this is going to happen?
After RBG died, I sent a text to my friend in Seattle, jokingly proposing that we could both divorce our wives and then enter sham marriages with the other's now-ex wife so they could both become Canadian citizens.
He replied that he and his wife had already been looking for several weeks at literally every other first world nation to see where they can emigrate to. They have enough points to legally move to New Zealand as skilled immigrants, he said, but they both need local job offers first (keeping their current US-based jobs and working remotely from NZ doesn't cut it). He said he wasn't joking. Even if Biden wins, he said, they've concluded that the United States is no longer a country they love and a place where they want to raise their children.
Of course, that's a very privileged position. The vast majority of Americans who want to get out are unable to do so for a variety of reasons.
i know someone from Seattle, whose wife is a Canadian duo citizen who has been considering that as well...
i am not sure what's going to happen, but, imo, it will devolve into a tit for tat battle... if Trump disputes the election results, it will get really ugly
More seriously, could it turn into something akin to ethnic cleansing? If Trump steals the election where does a majority Democratic state like California turn its anger? Politically against the administration, maybe withhold taxes, but personally? Maybe those Republicans down the street you never liked...
Far fetched, but not implausible in the event of a complete meltdown. Majority mob rule.
If Trump wins a 2nd term and the U.S. inevitably sinks deeper into authoritarianism, I wonder if we finally start to see a mass exodus of people packing up their families and leaving the U.S. to start new and better lives in more democratic countries.
I know a lot of Americans were saying "that's it, I'm moving to Canada" after the last election, but of course nobody actually followed through at the time. I'm betting this time people will be much more serious about looking into their immigration options. I certainly would.
It'll certainly happen for some Americans, but it won't be a mass exodus. Lifting and shifting a family to a different country takes a lot of time and even more money. For those who can potentially make such a move, are too late now as well if they want to avoid any fallout from the election.
I also get the sense that Americans largely wouldn't embrace moving to another country to live, like most other people around the world do.
More seriously, could it turn into something akin to ethnic cleansing? If Trump steals the election where does a majority Democratic state like California turn its anger? Politically against the administration, maybe withhold taxes, but personally? Maybe those Republicans down the street you never liked...
Far fetched, but not implausible in the event of a complete meltdown. Majority mob rule.
The photo op at the church was the clearest portrayal of a white supremacist christian state as could be asked for. If there is any sort of actual ethnic cleansing, I expect it to be rooted there. I would also expect a cleansing of political opponents to come before that though.
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If things got bad enough, I wonder if Canada could implement an immigration program special for disaffected blue state Americans (or blues stuck in red states). Initiate a massive brain drain down south. Things would have be real ugly though otherwise I’m sure Hitler junior down south would take offence and retaliate.
Although they’d need employers and big business is deep in trumps back pocket so maybe not.
what will happen is if the supreme court allows all manner of wack doodle fundy right wing bull####, no labour laws, no safety standards etc, no abortion (obviously) then there will be a vast exodus from the fundy states to the blue states, and perhaps visa versa although I tend to think when the window licking mouth breathers get their perfect capitalist regime they will hate it (well the ones that arent rich)
what will happen is if the supreme court allows all manner of wack doodle fundy right wing bull####, no labour laws, no safety standards etc, no abortion (obviously) then there will be a vast exodus from the fundy states to the blue states, and perhaps visa versa although I tend to think when the window licking mouth breathers get their perfect capitalist regime they will hate it (well the ones that arent rich)
I doubt it. Real estate costs in desirable places, educational requirements for employment, and political propaganda would all work to prevent that any mass migration.
I doubt it. Real estate costs in desirable places, educational requirements for employment, and political propaganda would all work to prevent that any mass migration.
yes but I suspect the whole state becomes desirable if half the US is offering medical, pensions, etc and the other half is taken back to the late 19th century levels of Goverment intervention, Seattle costs a fortune but you can move to Spokane for next to nothing.
If Trump wins a 2nd term and the U.S. inevitably sinks deeper into authoritarianism, I wonder if we finally start to see a mass exodus of people packing up their families and leaving the U.S. to start new and better lives in more democratic countries.
I know a lot of Americans were saying "that's it, I'm moving to Canada" after the last election, but of course nobody actually followed through at the time. I'm betting this time people will be much more serious about looking into their immigration options. I certainly would.
I've read a lot of people saying this lately (on reddit and a couple travel forums mostly, so take it with a grain of salt). Good in theory, but in practice it's not as simple as packing up and moving to a new country because you feel like it. I say this as someone who spent the past 10 months going through the process of moving to the EU a couple weeks ago for work, and experiencing first hand how tricky it is even when you already have a job lined up. I even had a 3rd party EU company holding my hand the entire time. Not an easy feat. If you are somebody with no job lined up, no in-demand skillset that an EU citizen can already do and no family-line that has maintained their citizenship to any EU country, forget about it.
Also during these covid times, the American passport is as useless as it gets right now. The majority of those 1st world countries those Americans will want to move to have banned US passports. Other than a few destinations desperate for tourist dollars, there are very few options for Americans to travel to right now. That will change in the future if/when the pandemic gets under control in the US, but that is IMO at least a year away to even begin those talks.
And forget Canada. Not only is Canada 'closed' to non-essential arrivals, but applying and having a positive results in Canada's immigration system is even more difficult to achieve then the US. Yes it happens, but not in as great numbers as the anti-immigration crowd seems to think. I also say this as someone who has been attempting to get my fiancé into Canada for the past 2 years. Marrying a Canadian citizen is a path forward (hence me moving to the EU to get married there), but not a realistic option for everyone. A family of 4 quitting their jobs thinking they can just pack it up from down south and move to Canada, that's not going to happen as easily as they think.
Last edited by Huntingwhale; 09-23-2020 at 02:19 AM.
Some interesting takes. I hope it doesn’t come to any of that and cooler heads prevail. Seems too Hollywood, but in the time of the reality TV President, anything is possible I guess.
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Some interesting takes. I hope it doesn’t come to any of that and cooler heads prevail. Seems too Hollywood, but in the time of the reality TV President, anything is possible I guess.
Seems Hollywood if that's the familiar reference point for these sorts of narratives, but these sorts of things are common across our recorded histories. The American outlook holds the US as a unique nation, almost like it's exempt from troubles of other nations as it rises above them, but in the end we're all humans organizing in human ways with patterns in the ways we do things that form a more global narrative with larger story arcs than those of Hollywood.
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I doubt it. Real estate costs in desirable places, educational requirements for employment, and political propaganda would all work to prevent that any mass migration.
Well, the same forces exist in developing nations, but as long as there's freedom of mobility it doesn't stop people from chasing what they see as opportunity or a chance to flee somewhere they feel hopeless. The massive slums around cities like Mumbai or Lagos aren't all made up of people indigenous to that area. They're made up of people who came from elsewhere with low levels of education, lack of employment and inability to afford a home. Still, they come. People with virtually nothing get on small boats run by dodgy people to cross dangerous seas with high risks of never completing the journey to reach places where they don't have the money for a home or the education to get good work.
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It’s all “stop being dramatic” and “they’re not actually fascists” until they are. Man I wonder if there might be some sort of branch of government that could interpret if this was constitutional or not...oh right. Welp this should go well just keep saying they’re not that bad ok? Don’t say anything bad about how republicans are complicit cowards in the death of democracy because then their feelings could get hurt and they might be even more conservative. For shame.
“Conservatives will always be with us. If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.” -David Frum
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That’s one of the more frightening articles I’ve read on the subject. Great detail.
Quote:
The order had its origins in the New Jersey gubernatorial election of 1981. According to the district court’s opinion in Democratic National Committee v. Republican National Committee, the RNC allegedly tried to intimidate voters by hiring off-duty law-enforcement officers as members of a “National Ballot Security Task Force,” some of them armed and carrying two-way radios. According to the plaintiffs, they stopped and questioned voters in minority neighborhoods, blocked voters from entering the polls, forcibly restrained poll workers, challenged people’s eligibility to vote, warned of criminal charges for casting an illegal ballot, and generally did their best to frighten voters away from the polls. The power of these methods relied on well-founded fears among people of color about contact with police.
This year, with a judge no longer watching, the Republicans are recruiting 50,000 volunteers in 15 contested states to monitor polling places and challenge voters they deem suspicious-looking. Trump called in to Fox News on August 20 to tell Sean Hannity, “We’re going to have sheriffs and we’re going to have law enforcement and we’re going to have, hopefully, U.S. attorneys” to keep close watch on the polls. For the first time in decades, according to Clark, Republicans are free to combat voter fraud in “places that are run by Democrats.”
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I'm in a group chat with some friends from across the country, and I remember listening to David Frum talk about dangerous Trump would be post election until inauguration day, how he could cause a major crisis. They all laughed and said it was hyperbolic. I feel like a constitutional crisis inevitable, nevermind possible.
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