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Old 03-03-2021, 08:14 PM   #10961
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The best thing for businesses will be getting our numbers low enough that with spring, and vaccines we can avoid a serious third wave. We keep doing this little dance, and we're very close to being able to have a great summer, I just don't want to see what we've done the past couple months wasted for nothing. I hope the experts are wrong on what they think is a very real possibility for case numbers here in Alberta.
The issue with this sort of thinking is that we don't know where we need to be in order to have a great summer. There is no definitive playbook and because of that people are losing hope. All we ever hear is empty platitudes about being safe, staying home, stopping the spread, etc from every level of government and health authority but no one can actually define what success actually looks like.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:30 PM   #10962
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Deaths may decrease, but more people under 70 will get it and end up in the hospital. They are finding 10% of people are getting long covid. What does that cost us down the road? A 35, 50 and 60 year old just died from working in the Red Deer pork plant. The 35 year old had no known pre-existing conditions. One outbreak at the Red Deer meat plant has been known to be responsible for at least 500 cases, and 4 deaths. A pub in BC had trivia night with 24 people that has now linked to more than 300 cases.



What happens to businesses when we start having 1500, 2000, 2500 cases per day? They are worse off in that situation then they are now, because the majority of people will avoid places they don't absolutely need to go. If 55 - 60% of cases in the hospital are under 65 and we let our cases double, or triple, what happens to the hospital numbers? In the US of the 4.1 million estimated hospitalizations, 2.2 million or about 55% are under 65.



We already know there are places in North America that are completely open and they are still doing way less business. I believe someone earlier in the thread pointed out that business is down in Florida to about the same levels as BC.



The best thing for businesses will be getting our numbers low enough that with spring, and vaccines we can avoid a serious third wave. We keep doing this little dance, and we're very close to being able to have a great summer, I just don't want to see what we've done the past couple months wasted for nothing. I hope the experts are wrong on what they think is a very real possibility for case numbers here in Alberta.
Of the 10% getting 'long covid' how many are part of that at risk 65 - 70+ age group? I now know over 100 people (10 families who got it at the same time) who have gotten covid all under the age of 50 and none have had any long term issues. I don't argue that its not a risk because it absolutely is, but from what I've seen its something I have more and more been willing to accept. My dad who is over the age of 80 was who I was really worried about. He has done a great job of staying in. If the people who are really worried about it want to not take part in society, fine, I fully support that. But seeing the statistics I think the hospitalization rates will never be as dire as you are suggesting at this point.

On another note, and please don't take this as an attack on you, but you have said that your significant other is in health care. Health care workers have not had any impact on their earnings and ability financially. It seems biased to me to expect all of these businesses and people who do not have the ability to work and haven't had the ability to work for almost a year to just continue going on like this.

Lastly, I would first like to see the numbers on the BC/Florida comparison. Florida is naturally an older demographic so it could make sense that the older population is more cautious but I guarantee the younger demographic will go out and will support things such as spas, gyms, restaurants and the likes. I don't think its a reasonable argument to say these places will be worse off if we chose to open things up a little bit more.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:35 PM   #10963
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Went to gym today, felt AWESOME. Made sure it was low intensity and yelled “Lightweight Baby!!” before every lift.
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Old 03-03-2021, 08:39 PM   #10964
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Went to gym today, felt AWESOME. Made sure it was low intensity and yelled “Lightweight Baby!!” before every lift.
Honestly, my entire hope tomorrow is to have a trainer say something like “take it easy Slava, don’t lift so heavy” or something like that. It would make my day!
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Old 03-03-2021, 10:29 PM   #10965
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The "life is full of risk" argument is pretty absurd at this point as well, isn't it? As well as awkwardly trying to compare the risk of heart disease from not being able to access a gym for 8 months vs. the risk of death from unmitigated spread of the coronavirus? Like... come on man... use your brain here.

It's important to put it into perspective, because "deaths" is an inevitable result here. And it's not absurd to relate that on a personal level.

If you look at the case fatality rate of the US, it is 1.8%. It's not a perfect measurement, but lets just use it for example since they have had a lot of cases (almost as many as our population, and Canada's is 2.5% for the record). If we say everyone over age 24 gets it, that's 493,000 deaths (wouldn't happen, just an example, and for reference, ~270k people die in Canada each average year). If we say 11.7% of people over 24 get it (the % of Czechia's pop that got it, which is one of the highest cases per million countries), that's an additional 55,000 deaths, or over a tripling from where we are today.

And with a sharp increase in cases, comes overwhelmed healthcare systems, which leads to more deaths unrelated to coronavirus in addition to the deaths related to it. The race against vaccines becomes very serious in this scenario.

So, let's be honest instead of blabbering about "life has risks." If you remove restrictions, cases will go up until vaccines provide enough immunity, and in that time frame, thousands of people will die. It's a foregone conclusion, there is no question.

The only honest way to look at it is answering whether you (if you're older) are ok being one of those people, or if you're ok with an older family member dying in the next few months. Because you might. That's the risk. You don't get to choose who dies from this, there's no promise it's going to be some stranger you don't care about. Are you ok with that?

If so, totally fine. But if you think it's absurd to think about, it might be time to wake up.
Here’s the thing though, people like myself, and I’m going to assume CorporateJay don’t look at your case fatality rate as an appropriate measure of risk. Well we must be really ####ing stupid, or we consider the omission of important demographic data as a flaw in your rationale. The case fatality rate is not linear.

It’s not an us vs. them thing to have a discussion regarding perception. It would be idiotic to ask Mr. Smith which child he’s okay with losing when he goes on a road trip with his family, without doubt. Far more youth are lost to vehicle collisions than Covid yearly, but we look at the whole picture and try to mitigate as best possible. We don’t go around asking parents to pick their least favourite to be okay with losing. Some people don’t drive, some people break the speed limit...they both can’t be right in their assessment

Some people are very clearly emotionally charged, which is understandable. #### off is a really solid argument to support a completely preposterous notion though. Nope, no hysterics at all.
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Old 03-03-2021, 11:37 PM   #10966
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These are ridiculous arguments, and have been for long enough.

Life is chock-full of risks, plenty of which we could reduce but by and large chose not to. Do you go around asking these questions to people when they don’t express the level of aversion that you are comfortable with regarding anything else?

Imagine Slava (not picking on him, just know he likes the gym) asking you which family member you want to die prematurely because of heart disease from lack of physical activity? It’s absurd to assert that anyone could be expected to identify which loved one they’d like to die, when the question is what level of risk to your loved ones are you okay with?

They’re two totally different things and constantly framing someone as a murderous monster for making their own assessment patently misrepresents the position.
If my parents were to die from my lack of hitting the gym, they would have been gone long ago.
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Old 03-04-2021, 12:34 AM   #10967
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Here’s the thing though, people like myself, and I’m going to assume CorporateJay don’t look at your case fatality rate as an appropriate measure of risk. Well we must be really ####ing stupid, or we consider the omission of important demographic data as a flaw in your rationale. The case fatality rate is not linear.

It’s not an us vs. them thing to have a discussion regarding perception. It would be idiotic to ask Mr. Smith which child he’s okay with losing when he goes on a road trip with his family, without doubt. Far more youth are lost to vehicle collisions than Covid yearly, but we look at the whole picture and try to mitigate as best possible. We don’t go around asking parents to pick their least favourite to be okay with losing. Some people don’t drive, some people break the speed limit...they both can’t be right in their assessment

Some people are very clearly emotionally charged, which is understandable. #### off is a really solid argument to support a completely preposterous notion though. Nope, no hysterics at all.
What are you talking about? CSR is not for you, personally, to measure your own risk. It’s a representation of what is actually occurring. How many deaths, in how many cases. Of course it isn’t “linear” that’s why I gave examples assuming it would drop to levels closer to the US instead of what Canada is currently at and why I took out the under 24 age bracket without raising it back up. It would change. It is also is not a “flaw” in the rationale, you just don’t understand the number.

This is not about you, and what undercoverbrother is trying to do is get through to people like yourself and CorporateJay who do believe it’s all about “you” and only want to functionally measure they own risk and have the government open things up, knowing it’s low, without bothered to consider the fact that other people WILL die. People like undercoverbrother’s family, whom he’s lost two members of (I believe). So you might have to forgive him for being a bit “harsh” when he’s responding to people who want to “open it up and let whatever happens, happen.” Because what will happen it that people WILL die in much higher numbers than are dying currently. And while it’s nice you are willing the sacrifice those strangers, it might also be nice for you to put yourself in UCB’s shoes instead of being selfish.

Your comparisons are just nonsense too. Kids lost in car accidents? What does that have to do with literally anything? Cars are heavily regulated, lots of restrictions. Who can drive, who can’t, where you can drive, what speed, etc. We mitigate the risk, it’s not just some free for all. Which is what is being asked for. And even aside from that, the likelihood of you getting COVID in an area with unmitigated spread is far higher than the likelihood of you getting into a car accident in the same time frame. Car accidents kill 2000 people in a year. COVID has killed 22000. So I ask again, the #### are you even talking about? lol.
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Old 03-04-2021, 01:27 AM   #10968
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For what its worth to the thread, my wife (40 and generally healthy) has developed a pulmonary embolism from Covid- right after she had mostly recovered from the initial infectious period. The PE comes with significant chest pain and breathing difficulties. She is on the blood thinning meds now and prognosis looks promising.

Our young daughter was the first to get it and bring home, but went the entire duration without so much as a sniffle- the silent spreader scenario that is often discussed. Anyway, we all moved to masks 24/7 and my son and I seem to have been spared, but we have been in quarantine at home for over 3 weeks, who knows how long to go. I was pretty fed up with Covid before this because of the lifestyle sacrifices, but damn.

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Old 03-04-2021, 05:14 AM   #10969
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Of the 10% getting 'long covid' how many are part of that at risk 65 - 70+ age group? But seeing the statistics I think the hospitalization rates will never be as dire as you are suggesting at this point.

On another note, and please don't take this as an attack on you, but you have said that your significant other is in health care. Health care workers have not had any impact on their earnings and ability financially. It seems biased to me to expect all of these businesses and people who do not have the ability to work and haven't had the ability to work for almost a year to just continue going on like this.

I don't think its a reasonable argument to say these places will be worse off if we chose to open things up a little bit more.

Last info I read on long covid, age didn't play a part, nor did severity of illness. Not sure if those details have changed. I didn't say hospitalization rates are necessarily going to be dire. I'm saying if we just open everything back up like Texas, our numbers will almost certainly skyrocket, and if 60% of people in hospital are under 65, then we're going have significant increases in our hospitalization numbers, that's just a fact.

We definitely can't just pretend this doesn't exist, we've seen the results, over and over again, in my many places. It doesn't work. I'm tired of this narrative that if someone wants to do this right, that they somehow don't understand the plight of the small business. I agree with you we should open up a bit, we already did with restaurants. There needs to be clear rules, and they need to be enforced, which they aren't.

I don't take it as an attack, I get it. We're very lucky to have been able to work through this. No doubt about it. There were definite pay cuts for my spouse. I'm not going to get into the details too much but my partner took a significant pay cut for good parts of the year.

I have a lot of family and friends who've been affected by this, who doesn't? My parents both lost their jobs, they're both very high risk, they're retired with a small pension doesn't cut it for cost of living. I have many friends in the service industry, several who had just opened restaurants/bars in the past year or two, a good friend of mine is a tattoo artist, this crushed his business for months. I definitely understand the situation.

That's exactly why I want to avoid a third wave. If the experts are wrong, ok, I'd rather be cautious than blow it. I want my friends, and family members to be able to get back to what they were doing, safely. I've already stated that I didn't think restaurants should have been completely shut down, or gyms, and that small businesses being closed while malls were open was just silly.

We've had weak, inconsistent, and at times nonsensical rules, that's what people are getting tired of. I'm the first to admit, that I didn't think the rules put in place in December would do the trick, but we got our numbers down, and many people sacrificed their holidays for that to be a reality, which really pleasantly surprised me. I have a newborn nephew and niece that I'd love to finally meet, and I want to see my parents again. I'm not even sure if we're really arguing, I just don't think a full on opening, as was suggested earlier in the thread is correct and we should be cautious, rather than risky, because the people who are experts in this field are telling us we should.



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The issue with this sort of thinking is that we don't know where we need to be in order to have a great summer. There is no definitive playbook and because of that people are losing hope. All we ever hear is empty platitudes about being safe, staying home, stopping the spread, etc from every level of government and health authority but no one can actually define what success actually looks like.

I understand where you're coming from, this seems like it's never going to end.

We can get an idea of what success is, we've seen success in our country with the Maritimes and in our own province during December. Our daily case numbers per day dropped significantly, with fairly minor restrictions (outside of a few industries). We can quantify failure, by looking at our neighbours to the south and other countries. If the experts are saying that we should keep pushing for a few more weeks, then I accept that. I don't think anyone is saying we need to be New Zealand.

I think success looks like low case numbers that make it easy to track, and trace outbreaks, and stop them before they explode, not pubs opening and causing 300 infections from a trivia night. When people feel safe to go out to these businesses, we'll all be better off.

I'm as tired of all this as anyone. I've been on a more strict lockdown, than almost anyone I know for a number of reasons. I get it, I'm exhausted with this, and I'm not advocating for complete shutdowns, or anything even close to that (we haven't had a strict lockdown really at all), and I don't see anyone in this thread saying that either. People just don't want to throw away the past few months for nothing.

Lol, I honestly don't even know what I'm arguing over at this point, I don't think businesses should be completely shut down, but I think this whole conversation started with someone saying open everything back up full on, which I definitely don't agree with.
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Old 03-04-2021, 07:45 AM   #10970
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New study finds the correlation between obesity and covid deaths is even higher than authorities thought.

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...About 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from Covid were in countries with high levels of overweight people, says the report from the World Obesity Federation. Countries such as the UK, US and Italy, where more than 50% of adults are overweight, have the biggest proportions of deaths linked to coronavirus.

The issue is not just obesity, but levels of weight that many assume are now normal in many countries. Death rates are 10 times higher in those where more than half the adults had a body mass index (BMI) of more than 25kg/m2 – the point at which normal weight tips into overweight.

Among countries where more than half the adult population is overweight, Belgium has the highest level of deaths, followed by Slovenia and the UK. Italy and Portugal are 5th and 6th, while the US is 8th.

Vietnam, by contrast, has the lowest level of overweight in the population and the second lowest Covid death rate in the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...le-says-report
I’m not sure the call to prioritize obese people for vaccinations is practical. But there’s clearly work to be done in public policy to address underlying health issues driving covid fatalities.
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Old 03-04-2021, 07:47 AM   #10971
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Once the 70+ age demographic is vaccinated (which accounted for over 90% of total deaths and 45% of total ICU visits) the healthcare systems shouldn't be overwhelmed. Don't the risks dramatically decrease once we get these people vaccinated? That's what the numbers tell me atleast. Hopefully we can strike a balance sooner rather than later with fully opening while keep hospitalizations controllable.

The variants are the wild card to me - if these things start bypassing the immunity granted by the vaccines and continue to mutate, its a whole new ball game.


I understand the frustrations on both sides but at some point things have got to give and we have to start allowing businesses to reopen. Anecdotally I have seen far too many rules broken in the last couple of weeks both in private homes and in businesses and I just don't think people have an appetite for another lockdown. If people decide they don't care, give up on the lockdowns, they are no longer effective.
I don't think you're taking into account number of people who are going to refuse to be vaccinated. surveys that I've seen show up to a 3rd of the population unsure or refusing.

unfortunately, right now my mom is one of them and it frustrates me to no end. having another chat with her this weekend, and am going to play the access to grandchild card.
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Old 03-04-2021, 08:30 AM   #10972
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I don't think you're taking into account number of people who are going to refuse to be vaccinated. surveys that I've seen show up to a 3rd of the population unsure or refusing.

unfortunately, right now my mom is one of them and it frustrates me to no end. having another chat with her this weekend, and am going to play the access to grandchild card.
When businesses and airlines start asking for a vaccine passport people may change their minds. However I am not quite sure if people who are refusing to get vaccines really care about traveling or going to concerts.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:20 AM   #10973
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Went to gym today, felt AWESOME. Made sure it was low intensity and yelled “Lightweight Baby!!” before every lift.
I can already feel all my ligaments tearing when I finally get back.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:20 AM   #10974
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I don't think you're taking into account number of people who are going to refuse to be vaccinated. surveys that I've seen show up to a 3rd of the population unsure or refusing.

unfortunately, right now my mom is one of them and it frustrates me to no end. having another chat with her this weekend, and am going to play the access to grandchild card.
If 2/3 of the population gets vaccinated the pandemic is over.

Those who prefer not to can take their own risks at that point. I definitely wouldn't be willing to face continued restrictions to protect people who have chosen not to get vaccinated.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:21 AM   #10975
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What are you talking about? CSR is not for you, personally, to measure your own risk. It’s a representation of what is actually occurring. How many deaths, in how many cases. Of course it isn’t “linear” that’s why I gave examples assuming it would drop to levels closer to the US instead of what Canada is currently at and why I took out the under 24 age bracket without raising it back up. It would change. It is also is not a “flaw” in the rationale, you just don’t understand the number.

This is not about you, and what undercoverbrother is trying to do is get through to people like yourself and CorporateJay who do believe it’s all about “you” and only want to functionally measure they own risk and have the government open things up, knowing it’s low, without bothered to consider the fact that other people WILL die. People like undercoverbrother’s family, whom he’s lost two members of (I believe). So you might have to forgive him for being a bit “harsh” when he’s responding to people who want to “open it up and let whatever happens, happen.” Because what will happen it that people WILL die in much higher numbers than are dying currently. And while it’s nice you are willing the sacrifice those strangers, it might also be nice for you to put yourself in UCB’s shoes instead of being selfish.

Your comparisons are just nonsense too. Kids lost in car accidents? What does that have to do with literally anything? Cars are heavily regulated, lots of restrictions. Who can drive, who can’t, where you can drive, what speed, etc. We mitigate the risk, it’s not just some free for all. Which is what is being asked for. And even aside from that, the likelihood of you getting COVID in an area with unmitigated spread is far higher than the likelihood of you getting into a car accident in the same time frame. Car accidents kill 2000 people in a year. COVID has killed 22000. So I ask again, the #### are you even talking about? lol.
It’s clear what I was talking about, and somehow again you choose to misrepresent to suit your position.

It’s a bad argument to as someone to specify which family member they would be okay with losing. That’s it.

I wasn’t comparing vehicle fatality rates with Covid and you ####ing know it. It was a rudimentary example of an instance where a demographic faces greater risks than from Covid in which we don’t except anyone to identify their loss. Because that is not how risk and mitigation work.

I made a ####ing comment about a silly argument. Keep on doing that whole cardstacking thing though, it makes you look like a hero.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:23 AM   #10976
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If 2/3 of the population gets vaccinated the pandemic is over.

Those who prefer not to can take their own risks at that point. I definitely wouldn't be willing to face continued restrictions to protect people who have chosen not to get vaccinated.
The vaccines are not 100% effective, so that's not really the way it works.

However, I agree that by the time 2/3 of the population gets vaccinated, it'll be over. Likely due to herd immunity though.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:27 AM   #10977
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When businesses and airlines start asking for a vaccine passport people may change their minds. However I am not quite sure if people who are refusing to get vaccines really care about traveling or going to concerts.
For the hardcore anti-vaxxers, I don't think it makes a difference. For those on the fence or those who have to have their tropical vacation or attend concerts, I think they just suck it up and take the jab. It's helps the undecided and the soft anti-vaxxers.

I worked with a guy who claimed he had asthma and couldn't wear a mask. His work said they would work with him and find him a new spot, but they needed him to get a doctor's note. He decided it wasn't worth the hassle and started wearing a mask. It was weird.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:31 AM   #10978
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I can already feel all my ligaments tearing when I finally get back.
Ha! I feel that. I had a really bad January and February when I just lost all motivation. I started working out with a trainer in mid-Feb.

I think I would have been grateful for low-intensity activity only at that point. My lung capacity and strength just wasn't where it needed to be.

There is a lot to be said for mobility exercises. The secret MVP. Anyway, way easier to push now that being outside is pleasant.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:56 AM   #10979
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It’s clear what I was talking about, and somehow again you choose to misrepresent to suit your position.

It’s a bad argument to as someone to specify which family member they would be okay with losing. That’s it.

I wasn’t comparing vehicle fatality rates with Covid and you ####ing know it. It was a rudimentary example of an instance where a demographic faces greater risks than from Covid in which we don’t except anyone to identify their loss. Because that is not how risk and mitigation work.

I made a ####ing comment about a silly argument. Keep on doing that whole cardstacking thing though, it makes you look like a hero.
Yeah, and I'll reiterate: it isn't an argument, it's perspective. Nothing is silly about relating the inevitable increase in deaths on a personal level. Nobody would be up in arms if someone asked a guy who regularly drives twice the speed limit with their kids in the car if they're willing to lose them. Your comments suggest you don't grasp that, and your examples have absolutely nothing to do with it. They're nonsense and "you ####ing know it" (or god, at least I hope you do).

Keep throwing a fit everytime someone calls you on your nonsense instead of actually thinking though. You're right, it must be some propaganda technique! No introspection needed! Nobody is trying to play hero, boss. Grow up.
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Old 03-04-2021, 11:04 AM   #10980
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The vaccines are not 100% effective, so that's not really the way it works.

However, I agree that by the time 2/3 of the population gets vaccinated, it'll be over. Likely due to herd immunity though.
I didn't say covid would be gone, just that if 2/3 of people get vaccinated the pandemic is over. Covid is probably endemic now, that battle has already been lost.

And yes, some of those vaccinated folks will still get sick (very likely with a much more mild version). But at that point the cost-benefit of restrictions is so far out of balance the population won't stand for it.

I actually think there will be a public opinion alliance of the two sides here at some point. Many/most hard core anti-vaxxer types want it opened immediately. And the pro-vaccine types are going to want it open once they and their families are vaccinated.

Be tough for the government to keep restrictions when the vast majority doesn't want it.
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