[Rumour] Flames closing in on Maroon?

[Calgary4LIfe]

I am still a believer that the low shooting percentage that affected everyone on the Flames other than the top line (including Ferland with his very good shot) was due in large measure from a system not being dynamic enough in the offensive zone. I believe DeluxeMoustache's thread a month or two ago regarding the 'Royal Road' was very telling as to the scoring issues, and Geoff Ward has already stated that he wants this team to make life more difficult on the goalie and forcing the goalie to move more.


I think you will see offensive improvements from the existing players in the 'bottom 9' - Bennett, Jankowski, Backlund, Frolik, and even Lazar on this front, though now with the new acquisitions, this may also offer an additional increase. I am predicting that the Flames finish top 10 in goals for this season, unless they don't make a significant change with respect to making the goalie move and without attacking the net more.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

When they are matched against the top lines at the dome the other teams top line dominate. ( no stats to back this up)

Yeah, we know.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

High Danger shots are based on position of shot .. not how little defense zone coverage there is on the shot. After the road team scores and takes the lead they shut the game down and no longer need to make plays in the offensive zone.

Worse coverage means you give up more chances in the High Danger areas - the reason they are called high danger areas is because they are hard areas to get though that throughout time have a much higher chance of ending up in a goal. A shot from the point that doesn't have "coverage" should be an issue for the goalie to save.

This team didn't play a substantially different system at home vs the road even though a lot of people liked to think that. Do you think GG played two different systems? Why was it mostly the same in 16/17 under the same coach with mostly the same skaters outside of goalies? He matched Backlund against teams top lines that season too, and did it at home and the road in both seasons.

Even if what you said is partially true - it doesn't change the fact that the goalies were just worse at home.

So say the team would give up an early goal to go down 1-0 ... that happens. But the problem on home ice is that the goalie wouldn't make the next save so suddenly it's 2-0 or 3-1 against the run of play. That was the problem on home ice last year.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Scoring chance, shot, Corsi numbers etc were all better or equal at home than they were on the road - the only major difference was the goaltending.

Road:

Corsi For: 50.9%
Scoring Chance: 51.38%
High Danger Chance: 52.11% (11.4 High Danger Chances against per game)
Shooting %: 8.1%
Save Percentage: .916

Home:

Corsi For: 55.4%
Scoring Chance: 54.66%
High Danger Chance: 56.18% (10.4 High Danger chances against per game)
Shooting %: 7.6%
Save Percentage: .893

They were actually better at surpressing High Danger chances at home than they were on the road. So it is pretty close to being that simple.

It was a full percentage point worse last year than it was under the goaltending we got from Elliott/Johnson at home in 16/17 and pretty much equal to Hiller/Ramo in 15/16 (.890)... that is saying something.

Honestly as a fan that watches almost all games, I don't care what stats you trot out to support it (and I'm not against advanced stats at all), the team was just not good on home ice. They played tentative, made brutal mistakes and couldn't create enough chances when it mattered. The PP was also so bad that it was almost a negative to have the man advantage. They were also blown out numerous times throughout the year on home ice which for me, indicates the entire team was completely unprepared to play and is symptomatic of more than simply goaltending (these 6-8 beat downs also killed the home ice SV% for the entire season).

The simple fact the team has gone out and added significant scoring depth, changed coaches and left the goaltending duo in tact is a pretty obvious indication that management feels the same way as I do. At this point I'm willing to bet on their assessment of the team ahead of the CORSI rating and Sv%.

[SuperMatt18]

More Numbers for you:

Smith:

Home:
High Danger Save Percentage: .748
Medium Danger Save Percentage: .928
Low Danger Save Percentage: .957

Road:
High Danger Save Percentage: .861
Medium Danger Save Percentage: .947
Low Danger Save Percentage:.972

Rittich:

Home:
High Danger Save Percentage: .75
Medium Danger Save Percentage: .853
Low Danger Save Percentage: .947

Road:
High Danger Save Percentage: .777
Medium Danger Save Percentage: .911
Low Danger Save Percentage:.975

So both Smith and Rittich were worse at stopping High Danger, Medium Danger, and Low Danger shots at home than they were on the road.

Biggest differential for Smith was the High Danger Shots, for Rittich it was the Medium Danger Shots.

Just for comparison Mike Smith ranked 62nd in high danger save percentage at home and 3rd in high danger save percentage on the road. That right there is the difference of a goal against per game at home vs. the road (~10 HD chances against per game, and a 10% difference in Smiths Home/Road high danger save percentage.)

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

The simple fact the team has gone out and added significant scoring depth, changed coaches and left the goaltending duo in tact is a pretty obvious indication that management feels the same way as I do. At this point I'm willing to bet on their assessment of the team ahead of the CORSI rating and Sv%.

Oh I don't disagree with this and the team needing more scoring depth.

My point is strong goaltending on the road masked those issues on the road, and poor goaltending at home magnified those issues. The GF was actually identical home vs road (didn't score enough at home or on the road), and it was just the Goals Against that was a big difference in the results.

Home: 108 GF, 129 GA
Road: 108 GF, 114 GA

I just don't think this team played substantially better at home vs on the road. They just got great goaltending on the road and horrible goaltending at home but the scoring problems and lack of depth were a problem at home and on the road.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I am still a believer that the low shooting percentage that affected everyone on the Flames other than the top line (including Ferland with his very good shot) was due in large measure from a system not being dynamic enough in the offensive zone. I believe DeluxeMoustache's thread a month or two ago regarding the 'Royal Road' was very telling as to the scoring issues, and Geoff Ward has already stated that he wants this team to make life more difficult on the goalie and forcing the goalie to move more.


I think you will see offensive improvements from the existing players in the 'bottom 9' - Bennett, Jankowski, Backlund, Frolik, and even Lazar on this front, though now with the new acquisitions, this may also offer an additional increase. I am predicting that the Flames finish top 10 in goals for this season, unless they don't make a significant change with respect to making the goalie move and without attacking the net more.

I think the Royal Road will be something that they take advantage of especially on the PP. There were no half board players on their one time sides on the PP last year. i fully expect that to change.

Additionally, I really hope the Flames do a better job of screening the goalie, tipping pucks, and putting in rebounds.

I agree that we see improvement from the bottom 9 this year. The good news is that if you don't see improvement from the guys you listed we have other guys that will fill those roles. More than anytime in the last few years guys are going to have to earn their spots in the line-up.

[joejoe3]

Maroon... save percentage... goaltending... WHAT IS GOING ON HERE!?