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Old 06-28-2018, 11:20 AM   #1
Jiri Hrdina
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Default Re-rates

Folks,
Here are the re-rates for next season.

cphl.calgarypuck.com/pages/simupload/CPHL1-Players_ALT.xlsx

We have yet to complete the RFA/UFA grids or recall cut off but will do so in the coming days.
A few pieces of guidance
- Do not concern yourself with how much a player has increased or decreased in ratings. This is misleading. More look at if they've moved up or down in terms of how they are ranked against their peers.
- No ratings package is perfect. We have not tweaked these nor will we. That is a slippery slope that introduces subjectivity into something. Instead we will all live with the mostly good, a little bit of bad, with a 3rd party package
- Players who didn't play AHL/NHL last season are likely not going to be included, and won't have playable ratings for next season.

So again next steps
- Set the RFA/UFA grid amounts
- Define the waiver recall cut off point
- Once those are released we will proceed with RFA re-signings.

Questions?
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Old 06-28-2018, 01:01 PM   #2
savardandjokinen
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Did some calculations to help folks out, this is the ideal minimum rating plus you would like to have for each line/pairing

First line forwards- 73+
Second line forwards 70+
Third line forwards 67+
Fourth line forwards 65+
Extra forwards 63+
Top pairing dmen 73+
Second pairing dmen 70+
Third pairing dmen 67+
Extra dmen 63+
Starting goalies 81+
Backup goalies 76+
Extra goalies 72+

Last edited by savardandjokinen; 06-28-2018 at 01:24 PM.
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Old 06-28-2018, 01:38 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by savardandjokinen View Post
Did some calculations to help folks out, this is the ideal minimum rating plus you would like to have for each line/pairing

First line forwards- 73+
Second line forwards 70+
Third line forwards 67+
Fourth line forwards 65+
Extra forwards 63+
Top pairing dmen 73+
Second pairing dmen 70+
Third pairing dmen 67+
Extra dmen 63+
Starting goalies 81+
Backup goalies 76+
Extra goalies 72+

nerd
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Old 06-28-2018, 03:19 PM   #4
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I feel like injuries are playing too significant a role in these evaluations. Jeff Carter missed a huge portion of the season but still had solid 22 points in 27 games... falls to a 69 overall from 76.

Kesler had a much less respectable 14 points in 44 games, and missed 38 games to injury. Falls to 67 from 77.

The names of players rated above them are bewildering. It's not like these guys are defensive liabilities either.

Last edited by Ashasx; 06-28-2018 at 03:24 PM.
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Old 06-28-2018, 03:32 PM   #5
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I feel like injuries are playing too significant a role in these evaluations. Jeff Carter missed a huge portion of the season but still had solid 22 points in 27 games... falls to a 69 overall from 76.

Kesler had a much less respectable 14 points in 44 games, and missed 38 games to injury. Falls to 67 from 77.

The names of players rated above them are bewildering. It's not like these guys are defensive liabilities either.
Injuries have always played a factor and one of the reasons players go down. Makes GMs have to make some choices about whether to hang on to a player in hopes they rebound, or move on.

But again, don't look at how much they fell. Look at relative positioning. In that sense he's basically in the top end of third liners - so below what he likely is - but again - an injury filled season will cause that.
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Old 06-28-2018, 03:45 PM   #6
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I guess as this is my first re-rate, there's nothing listed in the rules that should have warned me that these players would drop 10 entire points due to significant injuries, and I made moves not believing such.

These guys are objectively better than 3rd line players, so I think this algorithm is simply really really poor. I understand 67 points in 82 games is better than 22 points in 27 games, but these players have essentially been rated at those point totals without consideration for games lost.

Last edited by Ashasx; 06-28-2018 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:10 PM   #7
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Goalies are the only things i consider this to be a little much, You got lehner, Craig anderson, above holtby. i understand down years, but its not gonna be perfect, ron hainsey is def too high. imo
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:23 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
I guess as this is my first re-rate, there's nothing listed in the rules that should have warned me that these players would drop 10 entire points due to significant injuries, and I made moves not believing such.

These guys are objectively better than 3rd line players, so I think this algorithm is simply really really poor. I understand 67 points in 82 games is better than 22 points in 27 games, but these players have essentially been rated at those point totals without consideration for games lost.
Part of what I would suggest is to dive into the individual attributes.
So for instance if we look at Carter he's got really good ratings in key areas such as SK (78), ST (83), PH (78). His SC could be higher and i agree is impacted by a injury season. But really one of the main things dragging down his OVR is his DU (42)
But OVR doesn't define how good a player is - the individual attributes do. I think you will find he's an effective player for you, but he may get hurt more.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:31 PM   #9
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How do you explain Rask coming off a big year 34-14-5 .917 Sv% to basically be rated one of the worst starters in the league at #25. This is the definition of a farce.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:32 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina View Post
Part of what I would suggest is to dive into the individual attributes.
So for instance if we look at Carter he's got really good ratings in key areas such as SK (78), ST (83), PH (78). His SC could be higher and i agree is impacted by a injury season. But really one of the main things dragging down his OVR is his DU (42)
But OVR doesn't define how good a player is - the individual attributes do. I think you will find he's an effective player for you, but he may get hurt more.
Okay, but I look at Kesler who has been one of the top defensive centres in the game for a long time. He had an objectively down year offensively, but he's still a really good defensive player... yet his numbers really don't reflect this. His defence rating for example is 71. That's just flat out wrong. Markus Granlund is rated higher.

Unfortunately something like this just really impacts my interest in this league. I gave up valuable assets for Carter and I had no way of knowing he would fall off the planet unless I dug up last year's results (which I was not part of) and looked for similar examples.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:35 PM   #11
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Okay, but I look at Kesler who has been one of the top defensive centres in the game for a long time. He had an objectively down year offensively, but he's still a really good defensive player... yet his numbers really don't reflect this. His defence rating for example is 71. That's just flat out wrong. Markus Granlund is rated higher.

Unfortunately something like this just really impacts my interest in this league. I gave up valuable assets for Carter and I had no way of knowing he would fall off the planet unless I dug up last year's results (which I was not part of) and looked for similar examples.
With all due respect, this is part of the game. We all live with how players are rated and there is no perfect way. If it changes whether or not you want to continue to play that is up to you.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:38 PM   #12
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How do you explain Rask coming off a big year 34-14-5 .917 Sv% to basically be rated one of the worst starters in the league at #25. This is the definition of a farce.
Most of his individual attributes are strong. Looks like he's taken down by a lower ST rating. I didn't do these ratings so I'm not going to explain each and every one.
I'm happy to answer questions but don't appreciate the use of the word "farce".

It is easy to cherry pick and find specific ratings that aren't perfect.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:41 PM   #13
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Perhaps you need to go back and review Goffie’s 10 Questions for the definition of farce? Certainly not the first and won’t be the last time that word is used.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:48 PM   #14
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I know what the word means.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:53 PM   #15
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Ok well now I can’t tell if you are joking or actually offended. Surely it can’t be the latter for such a harmless word.

I didn’t have any questions, it was a simple statement about the rating that I think is accurate. It is what it is.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:55 PM   #16
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If it was intended as a joke then all good.
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Old 06-28-2018, 05:05 PM   #17
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Crosby the 30th best forward in the game, gonna be an underdog story of the year.
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Old 06-28-2018, 06:53 PM   #18
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How are RFA/UFA grids determined and when can we expect them? Same questions for waiver threshold?
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Old 06-28-2018, 06:58 PM   #19
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I didn't take a deep look yet, but the thing that stood out right away was Henrik Lundqvist:
He was was 7th in games played, 41st in GAA, 24th in sv%, 16th in wins, and had the 4th most loses...but he's the 4th highest ranked goalie. Better than Helle?



A few of the goalie ones look suspect, but we don't know the algorithm used to formulate these, so it is what it is and I'll accept it.
No complaints. Just something I noticed right away.
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Old 06-28-2018, 07:07 PM   #20
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Quote:
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How are RFA/UFA grids determined and when can we expect them? Same questions for waiver threshold?
Soon
The amounts are based on the ovr for each player
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