BC Election - May 9th, 2017

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I don't think she's built that way. She's an excellent campaigner, so if this is a minority government that doesn't last it would not surprise me at all if it was a BC Lib majority in as little as a year to 18 months.

I haven't got any data to support this, so correct me if there's good reason to think this is wrong, but it seems to me that the BC Liberals as a party have a higher favourability with the BC public than their leader does. She seems to me to be an anchor for them. EDIT: a quick google search suggests this is correct - http://globalnews.ca/news/3333686/ch...election-poll/

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I haven't got any data to support this, so correct me if there's good reason to think this is wrong, but it seems to me that the BC Liberals as a party have a higher favourability with the BC public than their leader does. She seems to me to be an anchor for them. EDIT: a quick google search suggests this is correct - http://globalnews.ca/news/3333686/ch...election-poll/

This is probably true. I couldn't even consider the Liberals this time because I strongly dislike Clark.

[Matty81]

Even if the liberals win that riding with absentees ballots its going to be a new day. They still have to find a way to appoint a speaker (probably green?) and will have to all be at the leg in person for every vote to pass. Plus the first byelection that pops up will be a deathmatch. Hopefully they will show some more respect for the process and people outside their cronies this time around.

The greens will take this as a huge victory and continue to harm the causes on the left they claim to be supporting by throwing even more at the next election and vote splitting so I'm sure this will just be a brief interlude for the Libs long run. I wish we had proper liberal and conservative parties.

Also gotta say that the plan for cheap daycare was not a terrible idea. As a parent of two young kids, seeing the burden that daycare puts on young families, and how many people it ultimately takes out of the workforce (also how many new workers are never even born because their parents can't afford kids).... that idea is inevitable in Canada if we ever want to reach a point where our population grows without immigration. Economically it is farsighted and its an area our society needs to get its #### together.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

See, for me, whether or not I like the leader is pretty much at the bottom of my list of priorities. It goes party platform, local rep (be it MLA or MP), then I guess leader.

[Matty81]

I have local rep to be almost irrelevant unless you have a cabinet minister or leader in your riding. You never even hear their name after they get elected unless you make a habit of going to local ribbon cuttings or are a squeeky wheel who likes writing letters/emails. For me it's party platform, leader then candidate.

Although I will admit its tough voting for a terrible candidate even if the first two are fits.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I haven't got any data to support this, so correct me if there's good reason to think this is wrong, but it seems to me that the BC Liberals as a party have a higher favourability with the BC public than their leader does. She seems to me to be an anchor for them. EDIT: a quick google search suggests this is correct - http://globalnews.ca/news/3333686/ch...election-poll/

I suppose there is something to this, but I think if, say, Kevin Falcon was Premier opinion would be similar. Maybe because she's a woman she attracts more unfavourables than he would but I think generally in the province she's just the figurehead for unpopular sentiment. I think it often comes down to how issues are framed. It wasn't the BC Liberals fighting the teachers, it was Christy Clark vs the Teachers. It wasn't the BC Liberals fighting healthcare workers/researchers, it was Christy Clark.

You may be right though. If there's another election in 2 years maybe Christy moves to the Federal level and they let a guy like Gabe Garfinkel be the fresh face of the party.

I just don't know if the BC Liberals can get elected without Clark's dogged and unflappable campaigning. She didn't say anything of substance in the leadership debate and still emerged looking better than her opposition. Pretty impressive.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

I have a feeling the recount on the 9 vote win could go the liberals way, I'm picturing the Nevada recount on veep

I'm pleasantly surprised that weaver said to support another party that campaign reform on spending was his big demand, the liberals can and should agree to that. It buys them goodwill

I also don't think the greens can form a coalition with the ndp politically, it would lead to another election in probably 18 months and most likely a liberal majority, meaning any big changes they make get reversed anyway

Weaver had said he would take into account who had the most seats ins situation like this as well. He thinks long term goals imo, showing they can be part of a government leading makes them a lot more palatable to people who might dismiss them offhand as a one issue party based on the name.

So barring a recount or absentee voter change, my guess is the liberals declare minority government, the green get a cabinet seat, campaign reform, and a few smaller issues

I think this is bang on. I think the best thing for the green party is to show they can be an actual option, and work in parliament as part of the government. By siding with the Liberals on issues they agree with, they can get some items on their agenda through. If that happens, and people believe that Weaver could be a provincial leader, the 2021 election could be even crazier than this one. I'm sure there will be also items they'll side with the ndp on, but I don't think they'll align with them on a full time basis.

In Horgan's speech last night, his big line was that a majority of the people didn't vote for a Liberal government. That is true, but the popular vote didn't go to the ndp. The ndp's share of the popular vote went down. The people leaving the Liberals went to the Greens. I understand it's politics, and you need to phrase everything for your own benefit, but it's still annoying to hear. Even after Dix botched the last election, and many people don't like Clark, Horgan still couldn't give them a better option, or a plausible plan.

[peter12]

Yeah, she is an excellent politician. Pretty tough.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by opendoor

They favored the NDP even though the Liberals won the seat last time:

https://twitter.com/darcyriddell/sta...97362210385920

TY.

So either a 68 or 27 vote advantage (depending on whether you're talking about all special ballots (27) or just ones labeled absentee (68).

I wonder if that's a normal distribution of votes or if it greatly fluctuates writ by writ.

[peter12]

Yeah, she is an excellent politician. Pretty tough.

[Matty81]

She has good instincts and is unflappable. I think how flippant she is hurts her with a lot of people though, she comes off as callous towards people outside her circle and is a little too off the cuff. I actually think she's gotten more leash because she's female than if she was male and not the other way around. I remember her joke about her ex-husband's erectile dysfunction - if that was a dude making a similar sex joke about an ex-wife he would have been fired into the sun.

Definitely the strongest politician among the leaders though. Horgan seems a little slow and also poor emotional control (because I'm irish... really??), I don't like his instincts. Weaver, like most greens in Canada is well intentioned but ultimately more interested in self promotion than the fate of the causes he actually represents imo which is just a huge no no for a public servant. I think the only reason his favourability ratings were higher than the other two is because people thought he was harmless.

Was honestly an effort for me to go vote this time around more than any other election since i turned 18... no one seemed compelling to me.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Parallex

TY.

So either a 68 or 27 vote advantage (depending on whether you're talking about all special ballots (27) or just ones labeled absentee (68).

I wonder if that's a normal distribution of votes or if it greatly fluctuates writ by writ.

Yeah, it's hard to know for sure. Though I just glanced through some other Vancouver Island ridings from 2013 and the NDP's absentee numbers outperformed their overall ones in every case that I looked at.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Even if the liberals win that riding with absentees ballots its going to be a new day. They still have to find a way to appoint a speaker (probably green?) and will have to all be at the leg in person for every vote to pass. Plus the first byelection that pops up will be a deathmatch. Hopefully they will show some more respect for the process and people outside their cronies this time around.

The speaker casts the tie-breaking vote, so if the Liberals took that 44th seat, they'd still be able to name a Liberal speaker. As far as making sure everyone else is in the house at all times, that's no more likely to happen than every NDP MLA being in the house at all times. But both sides will definitely be rallying troops for big votes.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Yeah, it's hard to know for sure. Though I just glanced through some other Vancouver Island ridings from 2013 and the NDP's absentee numbers outperformed their overall ones in every case that I looked at.

I bet a lot of student/youth votes in those absentee ballots and they'd likely hue NDP so probably not surprising. I suppose there could be a larger percentage of Green votes in there thou so that might be a wild card.

That's probably going to hold. Outside of your threshold for what constitutes a spoiled ballot being really low, it's really hard to record a vote wrong. I live in Calgary-Glenmore that district was tied on election night 2015 and even with a result that close the overall vote only changed by six through the recount process.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The speaker casts the tie-breaking vote, so if the Liberals took that 44th seat, they'd still be able to name a Liberal speaker. As far as making sure everyone else is in the house at all times, that's no more likely to happen than every NDP MLA being in the house at all times. But both sides will definitely be rallying troops for big votes.

Pretty minor thing but possible that having 100% attendance is going to be tougher for the BC Liberals based on where their MLAs are from, they dominated in the more rural far flung areas whereas metro vic and vancouver are NDP strongholds after the last election though they do also have 2 or 3 remote ridings. I don't know much about the protocol for non-confidence motions and if they could potentially be caught out.

On the speaker voting, you're right, but that's really not a common occurrence or something that's considered desirable on an ongoing basis in Canada. Speaker as the debate moderator is supposed to be somewhat impartial and has to have the trust of the house that they are not biased... federal house procedurals:

"In theory, the Speaker has the same freedom as any other Member to vote in accordance with his or her conscience; however, the exercise of this responsibility could involve the Speaker in partisan debate, which would adversely affect the confidence of the House in the Speaker’s impartiality. Therefore, certain conventions have developed as a guide to Speakers in the infrequent exercise of the casting vote."

Granted it's federal but I think the speaker has voted to cast a tiebreaking vote 11 times in Canada's 150 year history. I can't see them appointing a liberal speaker and using him as a tiebreaker on an ongoing basis.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I bet a lot of student/youth votes in those absentee ballots and they'd likely hue NDP so probably not surprising. I suppose there could be a larger percentage of Green votes in there thou so that might be a wild card.

Except that in this riding there's no reason to believe that there would be a high number of student votes in the absentee ballots because Courtenay/Comox doesn't have a high student population and the election happened between semesters. It's far more likely that the majority of those ballots belong to members of the military base up there.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Except that in this riding there's no reason to believe that there would be a high number of student votes in the absentee ballots because Courtenay/Comox doesn't have a high student population and the election happened between semesters. It's far more likely that the majority of those ballots belong to members of the military base up there.

I don't know much about that riding specifically. I was more thinking of absentee ballots in general. I'll take your word on it for this riding in particular... you'd know better then I.

Was Benninger popular on the job when he was Base Commander?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I think this is bang on. I think the best thing for the green party is to show they can be an actual option, and work in parliament as part of the government. By siding with the Liberals on issues they agree with, they can get some items on their agenda through. If that happens, and people believe that Weaver could be a provincial leader, the 2021 election could be even crazier than this one. I'm sure there will be also items they'll side with the ndp on, but I don't think they'll align with them on a full time basis.

I think the big issue here is where is the common ground on the big issues for the Greens and Liberals? The main things the Greens ran on were the environment (obviously), electoral reform, eliminating big money in politics, and affordable housing. The Liberals clearly have no interest in three of those areas, and they don't really align with the Greens on the environment either.

The ndp's share of the popular vote went down. The people leaving the Liberals went to the Greens. I understand it's politics, and you need to phrase everything for your own benefit, but it's still annoying to hear. Even after Dix botched the last election, and many people don't like Clark, Horgan still couldn't give them a better option, or a plausible plan.

This isn't entirely true. The popular vote went up for them but it was by a completely inconsequential amount. That said, the Liberals won the popular vote by less than 1%, so I'd hardly consider that a huge mandate.

All that said, if this stays as a minority government, I think we're likely headed for another election in 12-18 months. I think the Liberals are more likely to roll the dice on another election than risk the long term prospects of the party by conceding to PR and/or eliminating corporate donations. And I think that'll end up being a smart gamble. The only potential obstacle with that strategy is the fact that there were 14 ridings where the Liberals won with less than 50% of the vote. What happens in some of those ridings in the next election if the Greens can't or choose not to field a candidate? Their margin for error is incredibly slim.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Was Benninger popular on the job when he was Base Commander?

I don't personally know the answer but I've read that he was.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Except that in this riding there's no reason to believe that there would be a high number of student votes in the absentee ballots because Courtenay/Comox doesn't have a high student population and the election happened between semesters. It's far more likely that the majority of those ballots belong to members of the military base up there.

The military base thing is way overblown. CFB Comox is primarily tasked with defensive support, search and rescue, and patrols. It's not like they have a bunch of service members deployed overseas or something.

And as I mentioned above, in 2013 every riding on the island north of Victoria (and Victoria might've been the same but I didn't check) saw the NDP and Greens outperform their overall results in absentee ballots.