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Old 08-29-2018, 10:48 AM   #1
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So, there is no expected drop off for Draisaitl's production while playing with 40pt players instead of McDavid, and no real increase for RNH's production going from the second line to top line.
Makes sense.
We all know Draisaitl will be back on McDavid's wing instead by Thanksgiving at the latest.
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:53 AM   #2
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I'm not "missing the point entirely", I simply disagree with you. I don't think there's any total there that's unachievable with a depth chart that would be unsurprising. Even just using the one on Dailyfaceoff, I think each of those predictions is in the realm of possible. I'd say they're a touch on the optimistic side, but none of them are wildly out of whack. Frankly, if RNH plays as 2C, I'd have him in the high 50s or low 60s without McDavid. If the assumption is that he plays LW for McDavid and then on PP2, I think 62 is probably a touch conservative. So's the Klefbom number. It's totally unclear to me who he thinks is playing RW with McDavid. It seems like the bet is that Draisaitl is on 2C and PP1 (in which I'd say low 70s rather than high 70s but that's nitpicking). Literally every other potential guy listed, if they were to play the full season on McDavid's RW, has a very conservative points estimate next to their name for that role. So maybe there is an assumption about a rotating cast of characters in that role. Then you have a bunch of depth guys he's predicting ~30 points for - not crazy.

The Lucic number is perhaps a few goals too high, but I honestly don't know how to predict Lucic - I think everyone knew that was a bad contract the minute it was signed, but realistically, you wouldn't have thought he'd be as bad as he was last year and it's not crazy to think he could rebound at least to some extent. Also not crazy to think he might get worse.

So yeah, I think they'll probably score, say, 10-15% more goals as a team than they did last year. Some players won't meet the expectations, others will be injured, some may exceed them depending on deployment and development. But I can't look at any of those predictions and say "that just isn't going to happen".
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:57 AM   #3
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It's preseason...shouldn't we be seeing a drive-by from Albertaoiler about now? His window to chirp gets narrower every year.

And man....Brandon Davidson taking a PTO away from the Oilers who clearly have an opening or three on the blueline? It's a guaranteed job.
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Old 08-29-2018, 10:58 AM   #4
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It's preseason...shouldn't we be seeing a drive-by from Albertaoiler about now? His window to chirp gets narrower every year.

And man....Brandon Davidson taking a PTO away from the Oilers who clearly have an opening or three on the blueline? It's a guaranteed job.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:04 AM   #5
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He's had a whole year to make a new account. Maybe he was busy rewatching old entry drafts on youtube or something.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:09 AM   #6
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He's had a whole year to make a new account. Maybe he was busy rewatching old entry drafts on youtube or something.
How did he get a lifetime suspension?
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:19 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague View Post

So yeah, I think they'll probably score, say, 10-15% more goals as a team than they did last year. Some players won't meet the expectations, others will be injured, some may exceed them depending on deployment and development. But I can't look at any of those predictions and say "that just isn't going to happen".
Wait a second, a 15% improvement over last year would put the Oilers at 270 goals which would make them the 6th most lethal offense in the league.

A team with maybe 3 what I would call bonified offensive talents in RNH, McDaivd and Draisaitl. A team with an offensively starved blueline.

I mean its great to predict that every one will go through either a career progression or a bounce back but that never happens, usually for every guy that either bounces back or progresses, you'll get a guy that continues his slide or regresses.

On top of that its ok for example to be optimistic that the Flames will improve offensively because they spent the off season addressing offense. With the Oilers they did nothing to address their offense. This is a team with 2/3rds of a good line in McDougall and Tenderness and a center that doesn't seem to do all that well at center scoring wise.

This is also a team that had a game plan after December of we're not going to win anyways so get the puck to the golden boy so he can win some trophies and feel better about himself and his laziness without the puck.

The Oilers last year offensively were like a baseball team who's pitchers couldn't get the ball over the plate, and they didn't address their pitching.

No offense from their blueline, and Nurse and Klefbom and Larsson aren't exactly offensive wizards. Tremendously bad winger depth, and a bottom 6 that couldn't score in a doll brothel.

I would expect that any improvements will be minimal, and that the biggest shock to idiots like Staples and the Oilers fanbase is that Admiral Yamamoto isn't even near to being NHL ready.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:24 AM   #8
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How did he get a lifetime suspension?
By being a troll.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:36 AM   #9
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But if I don't have oiler troll drive-bys on a flames forum, how will I know what time of year it is?? Don't wear white after labor day, and don't hear from oilers after December.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:38 AM   #10
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Wait a second, a 15% improvement over last year would put the Oilers at 270 goals which would make them the 6th most lethal offense in the league.

A team with maybe 3 what I would call bonified offensive talents in RNH, McDaivd and Draisaitl. A team with an offensively starved blueline.
OK, that made me laugh.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:40 AM   #11
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...Frankly, if RNH plays as 2C, I'd have him in the high 50s or low 60s without McDavid.
How on earth? Since McDavid was drafted he has pretty much been playing the top-line centre role for the Oilers, with Nugent-Hopkins manning the number two slot. In that time Nugent-Hopkins has produced quite consistently at a 20-goal, 45-point pace, which is actually very close to his overall career average. From where do you see this sudden offensive surge coming for him? What has suddenly now changed this season to see him drive an improvement in his own production to the tune of more than 20%?

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...If the assumption is that he plays LW for McDavid and then on PP2, I think 62 is probably a touch conservative.
Nugent-Hopkins has never broken the 60-point mark, and the closest he came to doing so was as the Oilers undisputed top-line centre with PP1 time and extremely generous offensive-zone starts. I would say a career best 60-point season from him while being glued to McDavid's hip is about the best that can be expected from him.

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I'm not "missing the point entirely", I simply disagree with you.
Yes, you in fact are missing it. The point is this:

No. Not even Propaganda Minister Bob Stauffer's exaggerated projections and a butter-soft schedule can save the Oilers.

No one can.

No one.

The point is, Edmonton is no good.
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Old 08-29-2018, 11:46 AM   #12
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By being a troll.
It took 10 years to discern that? Not to be rude, just can't believe he lasted that long.
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:19 PM   #13
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Ok.... taking their current teams roster - and their best seasons, weighted of all 82 games:


McDAVID 41 GOALS (2017-2018)
DRAISAITL 29 GOALS (2016-2017)
LUCIC 31 GOALS (2010-2011)
Nugent-HOPKINS 32 GOALS (2017-2018)
STROME 17 GOALS (2014-2015)
RIEDER 13 GOALS (2017-2018)
KASSIAN 16 GOALS (2013-2014)
CAGGIULA 16 GOALS (2017-2018)
BRODZIAK 22 GOALS (2011-2012)
PULJUJÄRVI 15 GOALS (2017-2018)
RATTIE 29 GOALS (2017-2018)
KHAIRA 13 GOALS (2017-2018)
ÅBERG 10 GOALS (2017-2018)*

KLEFBOM 12 GOALS (2016-2017)
LARSSON 05 GOALS (2017-2018)
RUSSELL 08 GOALS (2013-2014)
BENNING 07 GOALS (2017-2018)
JEŘÁBEK 05 GOALS (2017-2018)
GRAVEL 02 GOALS (2016-2017)
NURSE 09 GOALS (2016-2017)

TOTAL 316

* EDMONTON NUMBERS ONLY
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:20 PM   #14
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Above - sorry, those are all career years, weighted over 82 games - it's NOT going to happen!
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:29 PM   #15
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I'm not going to fact-check all those numbers, but just at a glance, Ty Rattie absolutely did not score 29 goals last year. I doubt he had more than 5.
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No. Not even Propaganda Minister Bob Stauffer's exaggerated projections and a butter-soft schedule can save the Oilers.

No one can.

No one.

The point is, Edmonton is no good.
Listen, man. You're a homer. And that's fine - I get that this is how you enjoy hockey. More power to you. Whatever makes you happy, whatever gets you the utmost enjoyment out of the game. There's no right or wrong way to be a hockey fan and at the end of the day it's entertainment that we're all getting from a totally meaningless game. But when you try to talk to people who aren't playing that game along with you, and don't have any interest in living in your parallel reality, it's honestly a bit annoying. You do your thing, and you get no judgment or criticism from me for it, but please, don't drag me into it.
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:37 PM   #16
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I'm not going to fact-check all those numbers, but just at a glance, Ty Rattie absolutely did not score 29 goals last year. I doubt he had more than 5.

Listen, man. You're a homer. And that's fine - I get that this is how you enjoy hockey. More power to you. Whatever makes you happy, whatever gets you the utmost enjoyment out of the game. There's no right or wrong way to be a hockey fan and at the end of the day it's entertainment that we're all getting from a totally meaningless game. But when you try to talk to people who aren't playing that game along with you, and don't have any interest in living in your parallel reality, it's honestly a bit annoying. You do your thing, and you get no judgment or criticism from me for it, but please, don't drag me into it.
Maybe I read it wrong but this exact post is pretty judgy and critical.
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Looks like you'll need one long before I will. May I suggest deflection king?
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:39 PM   #17
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The entire post was about how it's totally fine to enjoy hockey that way and I have no ill will towards that type of fandom, but that I don't want to participate in it myself... so yeah, I think you read it wrong.
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:41 PM   #18
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The entire post was about how it's totally fine to enjoy hockey that way and I have no ill will towards that type of fandom, but that I don't want to participate in it myself... so yeah, I think you read it wrong.
Your whole post was basically one big "I don't mean to be rude, but..."
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:42 PM   #19
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Won't the abysmal D also have an affect on their goal scoring chances? I'd imagine they will be on their back foot a lot and may not have all these glorious opportunities, no?
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Old 08-29-2018, 12:44 PM   #20
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Won't the abysmal D also have an affect on their goal scoring chances? I'd imagine they will be on their back foot a lot and may not have all these glorious opportunities, no?
They're totally going to sign Jason Garrisson though which is going to put them over the top.

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