[News] With the 21st overall pick Flames select C Mark Jankowski

[Red Menace]

Wondering about the expected returns of players picked in the bottom of the 1st round.
I took drafts 2000 to 2010, looked at forwards only, and players picked from spots 21 to 30.
There were 62 such players.
3 (5%) have become elite players: Giroux, Perry, Pacioretty
6 others (10%, 15% cumulative) have become very solid top 6 Fwds:
Steen, Oshie, Eberle, Kesler, Perron, N.Foligno
14 others (23%, 38% cumulative are solid 2nd-3rd liners (some could still elevate up to highers group)
Backlund, M.Richards, Kuznetsov, M.Johansson, Ennis, J.Williams, Berglund, Palmieri, Cogliano, Boyes, B.Nelson, C.Coyle, R.Sheahan, K.Hayes
The rest (62%) are 4th liners or fringe players...or complete busts (talking about you Robbie Schremp)
S.Ott, B.Boyle, S.Downie, S.Bergenheim, P.Eaves, Ril.Nash, E.Etem, J.Slater are among these guys.
Some have already retired or moved to Europe like Wolski, C.Armstrong, Tikhonov, Bergfors, Perezhogin, Steckel, etc....

So you only have a slightly better than 1 in 3 chance of getting what I would call an impact player (Fwd) to your roster at this point in the draft.

And Flames recent history has bared this out; 1 good (Backlund), 2 duds (Nemsiz and Chucko). Let's hope Jankowski can beat the odds and make it to the show (with the Flames).
Likely only 1 of Janko, Poirier and Klimchuk will make it)

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think I would bump Ott, Boyle and Downie up a group (and probably a few others), but the sentiment is still true. Probably a 50/50 proposition at best that you will draft a player from that spot that has a meaningful career in the NHL.
At the end of the day though, you can only look at Jankowski the prospect, without colour of the draft pick, and hope for the best. He still has a chance, but nothing has been set in stone yet.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Nope.

1. Classes will have already started.

2. NCAA rules prevent college players from playing exhibition games between two pro organizations. (They are allowed to play intrasquad games though)

Thanks for that. I seemed to remember watching Gilmour and Hickey playing in. Penticton last year, but those must have been intrasquad games from dev camp.

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There were 3,358 goals scored in the NHL this season, and 3,370 scored last year. 2005–06 is the high-water mark for scoring since the lockout, with 3,788 goals scored. That sounds like a lot, but is actually less than +1 goals/game. Scoring in the league this last season was actually pretty close to the average over the past five years.


Increasing the size of the nets is a terrible idea, as are most ideas to encourage increased scoring in the NHL. I don't understand why some find this to be such a problem. The reason scoring is down from the eighties and nineties is a product of all sorts of factors, not least of which have to do with the dramatically increased parity between teams in the league, dramatic general increase in individual players' skill, strength, and speed, and the increased importance of coaching which is directly tied to the explosion of information and available data.

In short, the game is better now than it ever has been. The players are all faster, stronger and more skilled than they have ever been. The drop in scoring from +20 years ago has mostly to do with how much closer the gap is between top players and average NHL players now than it was in the past. Checking players are better. Defensemen are MUCH better. Goalies are MUCH better.


This can be a frustrating rule, but it is far from stupid. The intent behind the rule was to eliminate the especially more aggravating tendency of teams to hit the puck out of play whenever players were in trouble in their own zone. Before the rule was introduced, it was not uncommon to endure four, five, six, defensive zone face-offs in very short succession because the defending team would intentionally lift the puck over the glass at every opportunity. The resulting situation is the less of two evils. Do you have a better solution?

Why? Not that I advocate it, as I don't mind goal totals as is. I'm just curious as why it would be so terrible.

I think the delay of game over glass penalty should be a half penalty and only serve 60 seconds. I would also like to see half penalties be introduced for regular season infractions during overtime.

On an other note in this direction, stats on penalty kill should be kept on a per time killed, rather than per infraction killed.

Yup I am way off topic. Ummm I still have high optimism for Janko. Glad we got him. Happy some are not happy though as this is one of the more interesting threads to read right now

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Wondering about the expected returns of players picked in the bottom of the 1st round.
I took drafts 2000 to 2010, looked at forwards only, and players picked from spots 21 to 30.
There were 62 such players.
3 (5%) have become elite players: Giroux, Perry, Pacioretty
6 others (10%, 15% cumulative) have become very solid top 6 Fwds:
Steen, Oshie, Eberle, Kesler, Perron, N.Foligno
14 others (23%, 38% cumulative are solid 2nd-3rd liners (some could still elevate up to highers group)
Backlund, M.Richards, Kuznetsov, M.Johansson, Ennis, J.Williams, Berglund, Palmieri, Cogliano, Boyes, B.Nelson, C.Coyle, R.Sheahan, K.Hayes
The rest (62%) are 4th liners or fringe players...or complete busts (talking about you Robbie Schremp)
S.Ott, B.Boyle, S.Downie, S.Bergenheim, P.Eaves, Ril.Nash, E.Etem, J.Slater are among these guys.
Some have already retired or moved to Europe like Wolski, C.Armstrong, Tikhonov, Bergfors, Perezhogin, Steckel, etc....

So you only have a slightly better than 1 in 3 chance of getting what I would call an impact player (Fwd) to your roster at this point in the draft.

And Flames recent history has bared this out; 1 good (Backlund), 2 duds (Nemsiz and Chucko). Let's hope Jankowski can beat the odds and make it to the show (with the Flames).
Likely only 1 of Janko, Poirier and Klimchuk will make it)

The what have you done for me lately syndrome: Mike Richards is a solid 2nd liner? He was on the Canadian Olympic team twice and an important top-9 forward in the 2010 gold medal winning team.

He has been called a true #1 centre on CP 100s of times, the missing ingredient that Iginla needed.

Just 4 years ago The Flyers dealt Richards to L.A. for forwards Brayden Schenn #5 overall 2009 and Wayne Simmonds, and a second-round pick in the 2012 draft in a salary dump.

He has had a better career than Dan Heatley for instance.... But I wouldn't call Heatley a first overall bust by any means.

Paciorietty is not any more elite than 4 out of the 6 guys top 6 guys depending which year you look at. Steen for instance was St.L best forward a year ago... best forward on 4th best team in the league kinda says elite.


If Jankowski has the career of washout Steve Ott (774 NHL games 106 goals 279 pts and counting I am pretty sure that the pro-Jankowski would declare a victory.

If Ott is an indication of a fail then chances are extremely huge that Jankowski will fail.

I don't think that anyone is projecting him to be a top 2 centre... one of the teams top 5-6 scorers ...are they?

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

He has had a better career than Dan Heatley for instance.... But I wouldn't call Heatley a first overall bust by any means.

Richards has been on better teams and has had more team success than Heatley, but in terms of individual production Richards didnt hold Heatleys jock.

Heatley - 372 G, 791 P
Richards - 179 G, 482 P
(Heatley with about 80 - 1 season worth more games played)

Not even comparable as individual players. Thats like comparing Ryan Smyth and Jarome Iginla.

[Red Menace]

I said M.richards was a solid 2nd-3rd liner, he has had a pretty good career for himself despite his recent woes. Drafting someone with his career results would be a victory.
You can bump up Ott if you like, it changes the percentages barely....but to be honest I don't think drafting Steve Otts in the first round is a remedy for success.

[Red Menace]

And yes, plenty of people are projecting Jankowski to be a top 6 forward.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

And yes, plenty of people are projecting Jankowski to be a top 6 forward.

So far his scoring doesn't project as a top 6 player. A lot of people are comparing him to Otto, I don't see the comparison other than him being a third line player.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

So far his scoring doesn't project as a top 6 player. A lot of people are comparing him to Otto, I don't see the comparison other than him being a third line player.

The only other good offensive player on Mark Jankowski's team is Ross ****ing Mauermann. Who he never played with. And who scored more than 30 points in the NCAA once.

You're telling us that you see no role for this player in the Flames' top six?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The only other good offensive player on Mark Jankowski's team is Ross ****ing Mauermann. Who he never played with. And who scored more than 30 points in the NCAA once.

You're telling us that you see no role for this player in the Flames' top six?

They had 3 players in the top 20 in scoring last year and were the 4th highest scoring team in the conference.

Jankowski may still prove he can put up points, but you're incorrect suggesting there's no one to play with

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The only other good offensive player on Mark Jankowski's team is Ross ****ing Mauermann. Who he never played with. And who scored more than 30 points in the NCAA once.

You're telling us that you see no role for this player in the Flames' top six?

No that's not what I said.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They had 3 players in the top 20 in scoring last year and were the 4th highest scoring team in the conference.

LOL whut? Providence's 61 goals was 7th best in the 12 team Hockey East conference. They were an impressive 27 goals behind leading Boston University. What made Providence a powerhouse was their defensive game, where they gave up a measly 37 goals last season. Next closest was Boston University who gave up 13 more goals. Providence's defensive game this past season is a thing of legend, and front and center in that was three Flames draft picks; Gillies, Jankowski, and Gilmour.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by New Era

LOL whut? Providence's 61 goals was 7th best in the 12 team Hockey East conference. They were an impressive 27 goals behind leading Boston University. What made Providence a powerhouse was their defensive game, where they gave up a measly 37 goals last season. Next closest was Boston University who gave up 13 more goals. Providence's defensive game this past season is a thing of legend, and front and center in that was three Flames draft picks; Gillies, Jankowski, and Gilmour.

http://hockeyeastonline.com/stats/fi...oring&sort=pts

3rd/4th in goals/game

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They had 3 players in the top 20 in scoring last year and were the 4th highest scoring team in the conference.

Throwing out those numbers doesn't mean too much without any context. Those stats are for 12 team Hockey East conference only. The Friars had 3 guys in the top 20 in scoring. Let's put that into some sort of context.

BU had 5 guys in the top 20, Notre Dame had 3 in the top 20, New Hampshire had 3 etc. When you only are comparing 12 teams and a schedule hovering around 40 games you're going to get a glut of players in that group. Saying the Friars had 3 guys in the top twenty doesn't mean diddly squat.

They were 4th in their conference in scoring, out of 12 teams. That's not exactly great. Why? Context.

The top two teams in Hockey East scoring were UMass Lowell and BU. Boston University had 3.85 goals per game and UMass had 3.44. After that was a significant drop off to teams like Notre Damn, Providence, New Hampshire and Northeastern, all hovering at or just below three goals per game.

They were a middling offensive team that got by and won on good team defense and opportunistic scoring.

Jankowski didn't have much to work with last year. Guys like Maurermann, Shane Luke, Acari get by on being good players that are 2-4 years older then Jankowski. Kind of like how an overage player in the WHL puts up more points. Good utility players but not good offensive stars. Watching a good amount of Friar games last year it was evident there was a significant amount of plays that died once Jankowski handed off the puck.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Throwing out those numbers doesn't mean too much without any context. Those stats are for 12 team Hockey East conference only. The Friars had 3 guys in the top 20 in scoring. Let's put that into some sort of context.

BU had 5 guys in the top 5 in the top 20, Notre Dame had 3 in the top 20, New Hampshire had 3 etc. When you only are comparing 12 teams and a schedule hovering around 40 games you're going to get a glut of players in that group. Saying the Friars had 3 guys in the top twenty doesn't mean diddly squat.

They were 4th in their conference in scoring, out of 12 teams. That's not exactly great. Why? Context.

The top two teams in Hockey East scoring were UMass Lowell and BU. Boston University had 3.85 goals per game and UMass had 3.44. After that was a significant drop off to teams like Notre Damn, Providence, New Hampshire and Northeastern, all hovering at or just below three goals per game.

They were a middling offensive team that got by and won on good team defense and opportunistic scoring.

Jankowski didn't have much to work with last year. Guys like Maurermann, Shane Luke, Acari get by on being good players that are 2-4 years old then Jankowski. Kind of like how an overage player in the WHL puts up more points. Good utility players but not good offensive stars. Watching a good amount of Friar games last year it was evident there was a significant amount of plays that died once Jankowski handed off the puck.

I wasn't suggesting it was great. The assertion I was responding to was that the only decent offensive player was Ross Mauermann. That's just not true.

I said nothing else.


He hasn't had any elite offense driving players, sure, but that wasn't what was suggested. It's not as though he had no one to play with.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

http://hockeyeastonline.com/stats/fi...oring&sort=pts

3rd/4th in goals/game

6th in the regular season (2.94)
11th in the Hockey East Tournament (1.33)
1st in the NCAA tournament (4.75 - no doubt aided by Jankowski, who was PPG)

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

http://hockeyeastonline.com/stats/fi...oring&sort=pts

3rd/4th in goals/game

Because of the imbalanced schedule and totals the only measure that matters is the conference games, where Providence was 7th in scoring. In that direct comparison Providence was out scored by Boston University, UMass Lowell, Northeastern, New Hampshire, Maine, Notre Dame and Vermont.

[T@T]

Am I the only one who thinks Jankowski should be signed now and developed further in the AHL?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by T@T

Am I the only one who thinks Jankowski should be signed now and developed further in the AHL?

No, you're not the only one. Thing is we're not in charge and the people involved in Jankowski's development disagree (so far).

We'll see how he does as a leader on Providence next year. I wonder if he'll be captain.