Strength of Schedule Update

[Kasi]

We thought that two years ago when we had tons of games left against Ottawa. Didn’t really work out well. I think the schedule being easier will help a bit but I feel more like Strange Brew. With how the flames have been playing they’re going to lose games to bad teams too.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Kasi

We thought that two years ago when we had tons of games left against Ottawa. Didn’t really work out well. I think the schedule being easier will help a bit but I feel more like Strange Brew. With how the flames have been playing they’re going to lose games to bad teams too.

I would assume anyone who has been a Flames long enough (or possibly at all) will know that winning against bottom feeders is far from a sure thing

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Kasi

We thought that two years ago when we had tons of games left against Ottawa. Didn’t really work out well. I think the schedule being easier will help a bit but I feel more like Strange Brew. With how the flames have been playing they’re going to lose games to bad teams too.

Of course they are going to lose games to bad teams, and literally no one is suggesting otherwise.

The Ottawa issue is a little different though, as was that season. Teams struggle with some teams, and play well against others, and the Flames had trouble with Ottawa. That is a single case however, and has nothing to do with league-wide statistics.

It is astounding how difficult this is for some. Or conversely, how much effort some will put into refusing to accept a simple piece of information, simply because they don't feel it matches their narrative.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hilarious how this topic created four pages of debate.

For the most part nobody is saying the Flames are playing great but the schedule has been their undoing ... but we've seen that push back.

I don't think anyone is saying the schedule is a dozen points or more of an impact but we've seen a pushback.

People hate excuses I guess. The team shouldn't use them, but we certainly can. This one is a fact ... they've had a harder schedule. Some are treating this as if I walked out an opinion that the refs are harder on the Flames than other teams. It's not ... they've played better teams.

Is it a huge impact? Likely not. But three points is pretty huge in 22 games in my mind.

If you did say refs are harder on the Flames it would be more believable to their woes than the schedule thing. The OT penalty call was ridiculous followed by the non-calls the following game in the dying minutes on the road. Again it doesn’t have to be a league wide conspiracy to be an implicit bias, but absolutely if we are determined to find excuses for the team, refs have game managed and impacted the Flames more than the schedule IMO.

[dino7c]

Flames remaining schedule is historically soft. I think you would be hard pressed to find another season where the Flames didn't play a bottom 3 team in their division or a bottom six team in the league until the 2nd week of December. Not to mention a major tank season with Bedard.

2 points lol...we will see guys, we will see

They won't win them all and have to take advantage but they are setup well

[Enoch Root]

I don't agree with that at all (Mr.Coffee). There was a stretch there (including those OT calls) where the reffing was having an impact, but that is pretty rare and it hasn't been teh case for a while.

There are always bad calls, and calls you disagree with. But having the reffing actually impact the outcome of a game, is not all that common. The Flames can probably make the case for a few games this year, but that's it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I guess we disagree on the bolded. Maybe if the season ended today but thankfully it doesn't. IMO at this point it's more about how you're playing than the difference three points makes.

The strength of schedule is going to move around a lot earlier in the season too as team's winning percentages change more dramatically. For instance going into last night Seattle had the 9th easiest start to the season. After last night they were 11th. They didn't even play.

Agree with your earlier comment. Some people hate excuses of any type, guess that's where I am at.

Appreciate you putting some data forward vs. just wild proclamations of how arduous the schedule has been.

Three points in 22 games is pretty important in my mind.

But the bolded part ... that's sort of the whole point. The average gap between teams in difficulty of schedule is 0.16 which is a whisker in the standings, it barely matters at all.

The Flames gap to the next hardest schedule is 1.9 or 12X the average gap between teams. The next closest gap is 0.67.

If I'm trying to make an argument that the Oilers have had a more difficult schedule than say the Jets it would be silly ... they're very tight.

The curve has a kicker on it to the Flames which is significant and an outlier for these things.

Does it mean they should have double the points? No.

But it's certainly more significant than the Seattle example.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If you did say refs are harder on the Flames it would be more believable to their woes than the schedule thing. The OT penalty call was ridiculous followed by the non-calls the following game in the dying minutes on the road. Again it doesn’t have to be a league wide conspiracy to be an implicit bias, but absolutely if we are determined to find excuses for the team, refs have game managed and impacted the Flames more than the schedule IMO.

No it wouldn't.

One is subjective and likely biased.

The other is literally a stat or fact.

[madmike]

Objectively speaking, they're playing some weak teams over the next few weeks. They need to win those games.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Three points in 22 games is pretty important in my mind.

But the bolded part ... that's sort of the whole point. The average gap between teams in difficulty of schedule is 0.16 which is a whisker in the standings, it barely matters at all.

The Flames gap to the next hardest schedule is 1.9 or 12X the average gap between teams. The next closest gap is 0.67.

If I'm trying to make an argument that the Oilers have had a more difficult schedule than say the Jets it would be silly ... they're very tight.

The curve has a kicker on it to the Flames which is significant and an outlier for these things.

Does it mean they should have double the points? No.

But it's certainly more significant than the Seattle example.

This kicker needs to me measured in actual points though. I don't get the relevance of using a factor based calculation (12x) when the standings are measured in actual points. Oilers have 15% more points than the Flames - this is meaningless. The gap between Oilers and Flames is 300% of the gap between Flames and Nashville - also meaningless.

Flames have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Panthers have the easiest.

Those are the absolute two extremes and based on remaining 59 games, their expected points based on SOS are different by 6.5 points. Those are the numbers. Every other club falls in between.

Is there much correlation between SOS to date and the actual standings? I don't see it.

But again I guess we just differ on the importance of 3 points in the standings after 22 games. It's a long season with thousands of variables, this is just one.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

This kicker needs to me measured in actual points though. I don't get the relevance of using a factor based calculation (12x) when the standings are measured in actual points. Oilers have 15% more points than the Flames - this is meaningless. The gap between Oilers and Flames is 300% of the gap between Flames and Nashville - also meaningless.

Flames have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Panthers have the easiest.

Those are the absolute two extremes and based on remaining 59 games, their expected points based on SOS are different by 6.5 points. Those are the numbers. Every other club falls in between.

Is there much correlation between SOS to date and the actual standings? I don't see it.

But again I guess we just differ on the importance of 3 points in the standings after 22 games. It's a long season with thousands of variables, this is just one.

I'll say it one more time, then I'm done.

The Flames are currently on an 86 point pace. If we take that pace, and factor it by the strength of schedule going forward, they are on a 96 point pace (keeping their quality of play constant).

That is a fairly significant difference, based solely on one variable.

You are trying to argue that others are using it as an excuse, but it is a simple fact, and it is actually you that is making the subjective dismissal.

[dino7c]

Yeah 2-3 points

A month

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

This kicker needs to me measured in actual points though. I don't get the relevance of using a factor based calculation (12x) when the standings are measured in actual points. Oilers have 15% more points than the Flames - this is meaningless. The gap between Oilers and Flames is 300% of the gap between Flames and Nashville - also meaningless.

Flames have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
Panthers have the easiest.

Those are the absolute two extremes and based on remaining 59 games, their expected points based on SOS are different by 6.5 points. Those are the numbers. Every other club falls in between.

Is there much correlation between SOS to date and the actual standings? I don't see it.

But again I guess we just differ on the importance of 3 points in the standings after 22 games. It's a long season with thousands of variables, this is just one.

The kicker matters ... how can it not? They're out side of the data set completely.

If you take two random teams say the Stars and the Ducks. One has an average opponent ranked 15.5 the other 15.8. That is super tight, they both round up to 16.

The Flames have an average opponent ranked 12.4 the medium team 16.0.

The 12th place team has a win percentage of .614, the 16th ranked team at .542. Over 82 games that's 101 point team vs an 89 point team.

You don't think playing a 101 point team 22 times would be more difficult and factor in total points than playing an 89 point team 22 times?

[Goriders]

Strength of schedule seems to be the new excuse for not playing well.

Teams have poor records now due to strength of schedule analytics. Not because their players aren’t performing and they score less goals than every team they play.

The league is so tight these days I don’t think the schedule analysis matters that much. If you don’t show up any night you are going to get your ass handed to you.

If you get into the playoffs no one is giving you a free pass. You have to beat whoever you’re playing.

[zuluking]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The kicker matters ... how can it not? They're out side of the data set completely.

If you take two random teams say the Stars and the Ducks. One has an average opponent ranked 15.5 the other 15.8. That is super tight, they both round up to 16.

The Flames have an average opponent ranked 12.4 the medium team 16.0.

The 12th place team has a win percentage of .614, the 16th ranked team at .542. Over 82 games that's 101 point team vs an 89 point team.

You don't think playing a 101 point team 22 times would be more difficult and factor in total points than playing an 89 point team 22 times?

No. It makes no difference. Stuff your stupid numbers. The Flames suck. Stop arguing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Strength of schedule seems to be the new excuse for not playing well.

Teams have poor records now due to strength of schedule analytics. Not because their players aren’t performing and they score less goals than every team they play.

The league is so tight these days I don’t think the schedule analysis matters that much. If you don’t show up any night you are going to get your ass handed to you.

If you get into the playoffs no one is giving you a free pass. You have to beat whoever you’re playing.

Nobody has said the Flames are a perfect team doomed by an unfair schedule ... getting pretty tired of this getting walked out.

If you have sporadic play (they have) against more difficult opponents (which they've seen) you likely have less success. Are you honestly arguing that?

Rolling out three Captain Obvious statements doesn't change that at all.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Of course they are going to lose games to bad teams, and literally no one is suggesting otherwise.

The Ottawa issue is a little different though, as was that season. Teams struggle with some teams, and play well against others, and the Flames had trouble with Ottawa. That is a single case however, and has nothing to do with league-wide statistics.

It is astounding how difficult this is for some. Or conversely, how much effort some will put into refusing to accept a simple piece of information, simply because they don't feel it matches their narrative.

I see you've offered objective data, to which I rebut with my feelings.

[VilleN]

This place is beyond frustrating at times. Think of strength of schedule like the co-efficient of friction, and the Flames are a car rolling down an incline - if we increase the co-efficient the car rolls more slowly, if we decreases it the car rolls more quickly. In this example the speed of the car is analogous to the pace at which the Flames accumulate points. Now, ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, the harder the schedule (higher the co-efficient) the fewer points we'll accumulate over a given period of time. Strength of schedule is a simple variable, increase it and we likely lose more, decrease it and we likely win more. Not an excuse, just a fact.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Strength of schedule seems to be the new excuse for not playing well.

Teams have poor records now due to strength of schedule analytics. Not because their players aren’t performing and they score less goals than every team they play.

The league is so tight these days I don’t think the schedule analysis matters that much. If you don’t show up any night you are going to get your ass handed to you.

If you get into the playoffs no one is giving you a free pass. You have to beat whoever you’re playing.

Hey look it's another poster that entirely missed the point

[SuperMatt18]

4 games out of 22 have been played against a team lower than them in the standings. (Washington, Nashville, Buffalo, and Philly)

They’ve played a single game against a Western Conference team currently not in a playoff spot (Nashville).

Now if they don’t win when the easier part of the schedule comes up it’s irrelevant but in terms of season to date so far it’s a huge impact.