It's a logical progression really, regardless of how tired of Smith some may be. Certainly a warranted stance. If Steinberg and Haynes are calling for Rittich to ascend to the throne, well... anyways.
Starter -> 1a in a tandem -> 1b in a tandem -> backup
Making up some ballpark numbers just for math's sake:
65+ starts -> 50 starts -> 35 starts -> 25 starts
After 18 games I think Smith has dropped from starter to 1a, and Rittich has ascended from backup to 1b. I think the Chicago and Montreal starts for Rittich were unplanned and were simply because he was a better goalie.
He has been stellar in the statsheet and to the eye test. He has had two .800 games, but one was the Pittsburgh raid wipe where everyone just gave up. The other one was the Chicago game, but I wouldn't really call any of those goals weak on him. Breakaway, seeing-eye through heavy traffic, 5 on 3. It was also one of those nights where Chicago didn't spend a lot of time in the offensive zone (15 SOG).
I no longer believe Smith can handle a workload of 60 starts. It is more looking like the 45-50 range at this point. And still don't think Rittich is ready to handle the lion's share of starts, but you definitely start leaning on him more, and it looks like Peters is starting to do that already.
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The other one was the Chicago game, but I wouldn't really call any of those goals weak on him. Breakaway, seeing-eye through heavy traffic, 5 on 3. It was also one of those nights where Chicago didn't spend a lot of time in the offensive zone (15 SOG).
Yeah, all 3 goals were on high percentage scoring chances. The stats didn't favour Rittich that night, but it was one of those situations where stats don't tell the whole story.
I really think it's time to see what we have in Rittich. If he isn't the answer, the team needs to look in to other options sooner rather than later. It is really tough to make big trades mid-season these days when standings are so tight and everyone is virtually still in the race, but you don't want to be the one missing out. I am sure Treliving already has his feelers out, but the best case scenario would be that Rittich can sustain his play and we don't need to give up assets. Or that Smith rebounds of course. I just have less faith in the latter. Truth be told, I am apprehensive about Rittich too, but he is the best option on the table at the moment IMO.
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Also it is semantics to say that “the puck is slipping through when he thought he had it” vs. “He’s behind the play” I would argue that he might be letting them through because he is behind the play and not tracking the puck.
No it's not. Those are two totally different events.
You can watch the goals that Haynes has labelled "bad goals" in his article. On the vast majority of them, Smith is square to the shooter, following the play, and the puck just goes through him. He is not "behind the play" in any way. He is completely aware of the puck and in position to stop it. He just doesn't stop it, which is exactly why to me it seems completely mental.
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I think some of the goals labelled as bad or questionable fall into one of 3 reasons (all loosely related):
1.) Smith is playing too far back in his net. 2.) Goalie equipment changes in the last few years. 3.) The effect of Father Time.
This is a playstyle you can get away with if you're a big goalie and have cat-like reflexes. You absolutely have to have an outstanding glove and blocker because you are relying on your mitts and your hand-eye coordination more than your skating and ability to read the shooter.
Also with the changes to goalie equipment, playing back further in your net means even more net exposed now, and goalies are still feeling out the new chest protectors. A lot of shots have been sneaking in the armpits. But again, this can be remedied by challenging the shooter, cutting down the angle more and giving him more chest to shoot at.
There is also the concerning trend that Mike Smith has not been able to put together consecutive quality starts for a very long time, dating back to last season.
If you look at the 2018 logs especially, he starts dropping off in both consistency and performance about two weeks even before he got the groin injury against the Islanders. I think this is aging kicking in. You can probably get the occasional great performance from him this season if he's rested mentally and physically, but not if you ride him like the starter he was last year.
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I think some of the goals labelled as bad or questionable fall into one of 3 reasons (all loosely related):
1.) Smith is playing too far back in his net. 2.) Goalie equipment changes in the last few years. 3.) The effect of Father Time.
This is a playstyle you can get away with if you're a big goalie and have cat-like reflexes. You absolutely have to have an outstanding glove and blocker because you are relying on your mitts and your hand-eye coordination more than your skating and ability to read the shooter.
Also with the changes to goalie equipment, playing back further in your net means even more net exposed now, and goalies are still feeling out the new chest protectors. A lot of shots have been sneaking in the armpits. But again, this can be remedied by challenging the shooter, cutting down the angle more and giving him more chest to shoot at.
There is also the concerning trend that Mike Smith has not been able to put together consecutive quality starts for a very long time, dating back to last season.
If you look at the 2018 logs especially, he starts dropping off in both consistency and performance about two weeks even before he got the groin injury against the Islanders. I think this is aging kicking in. You can probably get the occasional great performance from him this season if he's rested mentally and physically, but not if you ride him like the starter he was last year.
I don't know. Playing back in your net is a classic lack of confidence symptom. I really don't think this is all that hard to understand. Smith really seems to struggle with the mental side of the game and his inner demons. He isn't challenging shooters, he isn't attacking angles, he is playing back in his net and giving up angles to shooters.
There is some chance that the goalie equipment has him less confident in squeezing the pads to his body, I guess. Don't know how anyone could know that for sure. The goalie equipment issue seems like a bit of red herring to me.
And with age, I just don't see how age is changing Smith's play. Unless your argument is that his eyesight is falling, he is not showing the classic signs of a goalie breaking down i.e. lateral movement not what it once was, having trouble transitioning between positions in his net, not able to keep up with the play in front of him (players dekeing him out or passing around him). He is in position and is missing shots, not squeezing his pads tight, not covering angles as well as he could. My completely amateur take is that this comes from second guessing, not being sure in his movements, not committing to the save.
I am no goalie expert so maybe it is age. But I think this is also an easy thing to say when a hockey player isn't as good as they were in the past. I don't really see they ways in which Smith looks old.
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I think some of the goals labelled as bad or questionable fall into one of 3 reasons (all loosely related):
1.) Smith is playing too far back in his net. 2.) Goalie equipment changes in the last few years. 3.) The effect of Father Time.
1. Playing back in your net is appropriate sometimes, when you expect to need to move laterally
2. I didn’t read the Haynes article where he broke down every goal. 2 questions
- is that actually a problem that Haynes had as a takeaway with Smith? I can recall bad goals 5 hole (no change to pads this year), glove side between pad and glove, bad rebound punched out by the blocker right to an opponent, etc.
- even if Smith did have trouble with the chest protector, why are his numbers so much worse than every other goalie in the league?
Last edited by DeluxeMoustache; 11-15-2018 at 11:20 AM.
Playing back in your net is appropriate sometimes, when you expect to need to move laterally
I didn’t read the Haynes article where he broke down every goal. 2 questions
- is that actually a problem that Haynes had as a takeaway with Smith? I can recall bad goals 5 hole (no change to pads this year), glove side between pad and glove, bad rebound punched out by the blocker right to an opponent, etc.
- even if Smith did have trouble with the chest protector, why are his numbers so much worse than every other goalie in the league?
Haynes didn't give reasons at all, he just looked at the differences in goals allowed between Rittich and Smith on a goal by goal basis.
I agree with your question about goalie equipment, it's why I think it is a red herring. Goalie not playing well? Must be the goalie equipment or they are getting old. Those could be reasons, but they also smack as over simplifications that don't take into account a specific goalie's situation.
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No way. Totally different shots. Not every shot that goes in is the same.
Firstly, Vrana is on his off wing, pulls the puck a touch to change the angle, shoots it through the defenseman, and picks a tiny spot top corner blocker side.
Kane was coming in, I believe Smith saw it off the stick, and Kane put it between his pad and glove. Big league shot but stoppable.
Also on Smith, timing was worse than bad. First minute, first shot
Looking back, you are right - they are quite different. But I noticed something looking at Kane's goal. Does it not do a weird drop? I could swear on this replay that it hits the defence stick and does a curve.
Looking back, you are right - they are quite different. But I noticed something looking at Kane's goal. Does it not do a weird drop? I could swear on this replay that it hits the defence stick and does a curve.
Ah, we are talking about two different goals. I was thinking of the most recent Sharks game where Kane also scores the first goal, this time in the first minute.
1. Playing back in your net is appropriate sometimes, when you expect to need to move laterally
2. I didn’t read the Haynes article where he broke down every goal. 2 questions
- is that actually a problem that Haynes had as a takeaway with Smith? I can recall bad goals 5 hole (no change to pads this year), glove side between pad and glove, bad rebound punched out by the blocker right to an opponent, etc.
- even if Smith did have trouble with the chest protector, why are his numbers so much worse than every other goalie in the league?
No, that is just me loosely classifying them as I saw it.
I'm not so sure about the hockey pants, but goalies across the league needed to get accustomed to the chest protector in the early season. There were a bunch of high-scoring games. Even Rittich looked confused on how the 3rd goal against Montreal snuck in.
As for Smith playing too far back in his net, it isn't a confidence issue. When he joined the Flames there was mention of him being a bigger guy and not needing to challenge so much to fill out the net. This is his playstyle, similar to Lundqvist. Jonathan Quick would be an example of the opposite playstyle.
Unfortunately even if he is 'square' to the shooter and ready for a shot, if the puck comes at him anywhere other than center mass, he has to stretch for it. That cost him in the Anaheim game (huge rebound off a weak 50ft wrister) and against San Jose on Kane's goal (far post and in).
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No it's not. Those are two totally different events.
You can watch the goals that Haynes has labelled "bad goals" in his article. On the vast majority of them, Smith is square to the shooter, following the play, and the puck just goes through him. He is not "behind the play" in any way. He is completely aware of the puck and in position to stop it. He just doesn't stop it, which is exactly why to me it seems completely mental.
Fine. Call it reaction time instead of behind the play he may or may not be following it but his reaction time to events is likely what is causing him to let the puck slip through.
and if you consider it that way then he is behind the play because he cannot react as fast as he needs to.
Fine. Call it reaction time instead of behind the play he may or may not be following it but his reaction time to events is likely what is causing him to let the puck slip through.
and if you consider it that way then he is behind the play because he cannot react as fast as he needs to.
Mmm, I don't think that is a correct characterization of the goals. Watch the clips. He is reacting in time. This is not a slow reaction problem. On most of the "bad goals", he is in position and either makes the save but lets the puck through his pads, whiffs on the puck with his glove, or does not adequately cut off the angle the shot is being taken from. He is not scrambling or trying to get back into the play, he is ready for the puck but missing it. They are straight up gaffs.
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Mmm, I don't think that is a correct characterization of the goals. Watch the clips. He is reacting in time. This is not a slow reaction problem. On most of the "bad goals", he is in position and either makes the save but lets the puck through his pads, whiffs on the puck with his glove, or does not adequately cut off the angle the shot is being taken from. He is not scrambling or trying to get back into the play, he is ready for the puck but missing it. They are straight up gaffs.
So Smith is in good position on most goals against... If he was out of position that would be much easier to coach and fix, but if he just whiffs on pucks and can't react to the shots in time or where he thinks his glove, pad or blocker should be then that is something that is much harder to fix. I'd say that being at the wrong angle is fixable through coaching and hopefully easy but as for whiffing and just letting pucks through, I am very concerned that the cause is age, diminishing skill and slowed reaction time and I think those things are much harder to coach and maybe impossible to correct.
He just seems to have fallen off a cliff skill wise over the past season and up until now.
I don't cut him any slack because he whines about nothing being his fault after every game and he refuses to take the blame solely on him. If he would be a leader and accept responsibility publicly for the goals against then I would be more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt but his unwillingness to stand up and say "you know, I ####ed up and let in 3 bad goals, I need to be better" instead of the response we've always got from him after losses: "We didnt play well defensively", "the team made some mistakes in the defensive zone"
If he wants to bemoan the defense, then do it behind closed doors but be a man and own your ####ty play in front of the media.
