2019 NHL Draft Thread

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Honest question - who are the previous best goalies to come from that league? Is that actually saying much?

In recent years probably Gibson.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Honest question - who are the previous best goalies to come from that league? Is that actually saying much?

From the USHL in general or the US Development Team (because the latter has only been there since 2009, when Gibson was drafted, and didn't seem to exist from 2013-18). Demko has also been picked off of that team. http://www.hockeydb.com/stte/u.s.-na...team-9725.html

If it's the program in general it's probably still Gibson, unless you like Jimmy Howard better.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Pickle Juice

So It would be 2 firsts and 2 seconds which seems relativily close unless your Chicago and you think that the player in the top 5 will make more of an impact than both Brodie, Jankow and who ever they would get at 26.

A coke and a bag of chips would likely make more impact on Chicago in 2019-2020 than Brodie, Janko and the 26th pick.

If Chicago decided to move their #3 pick (and it's doubtful they do), it would be for a very young, cost controlled top d-man who is already established, not a offensive minded (and perhaps defensive challenged) d-man UFA to be in 1 year.

You simply don't move the #3 pick for a bunch of uninteresting stuff.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I know what you're saying, but this kid is said to be possibly the best goalie to ever come out of the US Development league....

Still the Flames just haven't had good luck for whatever reason and from what I have read he's a really good prospect but not a can't miss goaltender and when it comes to the Flames drafting goaltenders if there's a chance of a miss they will on a goaltender. I don't think this means you fold your tent and quit drafting highly touted goaltenders but I don't know if you pick them in the first round as you can find pretty decent goaltenders from Europe for free.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by flambers

My bet, zero percent chance....

Devils will want to draft an American kid.

Even if the players are totally even in rankings

Devils will draft Hughes

I think you are correct, but I don't think the rankings make much of a difference.

If NJ thinks Kakko is the better player (regardless of the rankings), they'll pick him.

[1qqaaz]

For goaltending, I think development has been the problem moreso than drafting. Guys like Gillies and Parsons looked like great picks a year after they were drafted. Broissoit looked good too, but the traded him.

The Flames were patient with Irving. He looked good for awhile too, but could never succeed in the NHL. Again, the Flames were patient with Ortio, but he also couldn't perform in the NHL.

Guys like Gillies and Parsons have sustained major injuries. Neither goalie has improved much since they were 19-20 years old. Mason McDonald was a bad pick from the beginning, I'm guessing the Flames thought he had a lot of potential for whatever reason. They didn't manage to develop him into reaching that potential.

For the most part, I'm fine with how the Flames have been drafting goalies. It's the development that needs to be revamped.

[sureLoss]

Seeing a lot of fan speculation about trading down from 26th for two 2nds. A lot will depend on how the draft plays out and what is still available when 26 arrives. Acquiring 2 picks allows the Flames to possibly trade one for immediate roster help and still use one for the prospect pool

Teams with multiple 2nd rounders as of today:

Senators: 32, 44
Think this is one of the more desirable scenarios, 32nd is the 1st pick of the 2nd round and dropping 6 spots to pick up a mid 2nd rounder will probably still net the Flames a player they would still have been happy to draft at 26.

Devils: 34, 55, 61 or 62
Not as great as the Sens deal, but 34 + 55 isn't bad.

Wings: 35, 54, 60
Almost identical to any potential deal with the Devils

Hurricanes: 36, 37, 59
This is where it gets really interesting. IMO getting both 36 and 37 for 26 is extremely good value. While moving down 10 spots maybe more than some would want, getting another high 2nd is great. The canes also pick at 28 so another possible great deal for the Flames would be 26 for 28 and 59. Those deals might have a low chance of happening though. More likely to happen 36+59 for 26 or 28+90 for 26.

Canadiens: 46, 50
Gets less interesting for the Flames. Seems like this scenario only gets done if the Flames decide they need quantity of picks over quality of picks and all other scenarios fall through.

Rangers: 49, 58
Even less exciting.



Again a lot will depend on how the draft plays out and what the other team's draft list/rankings look like, but could be a few interesting trade down scenarios.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Unless there's someone who a team is particularly targeting, the value of 2nd rounders seems to have increased to a point where it seems less likely that a team will give one up just to move up a dozen or so spots to the bottom end of round 1. The past few years there have been plenty of plausible 20-30 picks who end up going 30-40. If I'm the Sens there is no way in hell I'm giving up the 44th pick to move up 6 spots. The Hurricanes seems like even more of a pipe dream, unless it's 36 and 59 for 26. Obviously this changes if the deal isn't just for picks, though.

If someone like Broberg or Kaliyev somehow drops into the 20s I could see it happening, but in that case, the Flames should just take that player.

[shutout]

Here is one draft pick value chart, I am not sure of the year it was built.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...iAs/edit#gid=0

Based on this trading down from 26 to the high second round is worth a sixth round pick. And two high second round picks are worth the fourth overall pick.

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main...Draftchart.pdf

The second link would indicate that 26 is worth a high second and a fifth round pick and that two high seconds would be worth a top 15 pick.


I dont see the Flames getting two good picks in return for trading back.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by shutout

Here is one draft pick value chart, I am not sure of the year it was built.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...iAs/edit#gid=0

Based on this trading down from 26 to the high second round is worth a sixth round pick. And two high second round picks are worth the fourth overall pick.

http://statsportsconsulting.com/main...Draftchart.pdf

The second link would indicate that 26 is worth a high second and a fifth round pick and that two high seconds would be worth a top 15 pick.


I dont see the Flames getting two good picks in return for trading back.

All due respect but those value charts don't provide much information. Teams are getting higher draft picks than a 5th or 6th for moving less spots

According to the last chart you posted those packages should have been good enough to get into the teens or higher at the draft.


For example, last year the Rangers traded 26+48 for 22 and the Blues traded 29+76 for 25

In 2017, the Stars traded 29+70 for 26.

edit:
In 2015, the Leafs traded 24 for 29 and 61. Then moved down further by trading 29 for 34 and 68.
The Islanders traded 33 and 72 for 28.
The Sharks traded 39, 40, and 156 for 31.

In 2014, the Islanders traded 35 and 57 for 28.




It all depends on what prospects are available and if a team thinks it is worth the price to move up and get them.

If the Flames were to trade down from 26, another late 1st or early 2nd and a 3rd is a reasonable expectation for a return based on previous completed draft day trades. If some teams are desperate for a specific prospect they may get more.

[sureLoss]

Flames are interviewing roughly half of the 104 attendees at the NHL Draft combine

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/comb...ne/c-307578390

[dammage79]

I'm excited. I think we will actually use the pick at the draft. I swear there's so many good players to choose from in the first round you cannot go wrong.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I think you are correct, but I don't think the rankings make much of a difference.

If NJ thinks Kakko is the better player (regardless of the rankings), they'll pick him.

I seriously doubt they go with a winger over a center here.

I mean, last #1 pick wingers were Yakupov and Hall, and in both cases Edmonton would have been better off picking the next center. (Galchenyuk and Seguin).

Centers are also rarely complete busts.

[1qqaaz]

I agree, centers are rarely busts. Plus they tend to be more defensively responsible.
But most of the high-upside guys who may be available at 26 are wingers.

If the Flames pick where they are now, then I hope they pick defenseman Tobias Björnfot. Corey Pronman has questions about his offensive upside, since he stats were the same as last year. But he seems to be similar to Valimaki in that he's pretty all-around. Guys like this seem like pretty safe bets.

Jakob Pelletier would also be nice. Huge point totals and relentless on the forecheck. For whatever reason, the Flames seem to be good at developing players like him. Mangiapane has turned out pretty well.

If the Flames trade down a bit, then I hope they pick Bobby Brink. Again, small, but huge point totals. He's also good defensively. He's Martin Pospisil's line-mate, and they have been lighting it up together.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'm excited. I think we will actually use the pick at the draft. I swear there's so many good players to choose from in the first round you cannot go wrong.

I hope they keep the pick as well. I feel the Flames drafting has improved over the years as there's an article at the Athletic highlighting how drafting has improved since Treliving took over;

https://theathletic.com/1002396/2019...-in-all-sizes/

They’ve also been successful. In fact, over the last four years of drafting, six Flames picks have already played in 20-or-more games and appear to on the path to long, successful NHL careers.

Only Ottawa and New Jersey has had more success over the time frame but the Flames have only picked twice in the first round in that time span compared to four times for those teams as well the Flames have had less overall picks in that time frame than those teams. I feel pretty confident that the team under Treliving can buck the trend of missing when picking in the 20's range of the 1st round.

[bax]

I think I'm after Bobby Brink with the first this year. Projected to go somewhere in the mid 20's. Plays in Sioux City with Pospisil so the Flames will be familiar with him. 35 goals and 33 assists in 43 games to lead his team in scoring.

He was the USHL forward of the year and should be going to play in Denver next year with Pettersen.

Scouts say he has one of the best shots in the draft and is a sniper. Real good acceleration, but needs to work on his speed after that. In addition to his shot he has soft hands and can score in tight. Makes clean zone entries and is a solid playmaker to boot.

Supports well in the defensive zone and is known for creating turnovers. Comparisons I see the most are TJ Oshie and Alex Debrincat.

Also, Bobby Brink is a great hockey name.

If Brink is gone, I wouldn't mind taking Spencer Knight too. I'm typically not a fan of taking a goalie in the first round, but this kid has it all. Since it's a late first if he pans out it could pay huge dividends in 3-4 years. Reminds me a bit of when TB took Vasilevskiy.

[Badgers Nose]

Definitely a cool name.

Does Bobby Brink's dad work on top-secret US Air Force projects searching for extra-terrestrials and trans-dimensional demons in the forests of the Pacific Northwest?

(yeah, I am old)

[dammage79]

That's what I'm talking about, you dont usually get a shot at a good fw like brink in a lot of drafts at 26. If Brinks gone early that means there's another great player that falls down. And so and so forth. This is going to be a fun draft. Not just for the Flames.

It's not a deep draft but the top end shelf is deep if that makes sense.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by dammage79

That's what I'm talking about, you dont usually get a shot at a good fw like brink in a lot of drafts at 26. If Brinks gone early that means there's another great player that falls down. And so and so forth. This is going to be a fun draft. Not just for the Flames.

It's not a deep draft but the top end shelf is deep if that makes sense.

Where do you see the lower end of the ‘shelf’ you speak of?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Where do you see the lower end of the ‘shelf’ you speak of?

Lower half of the 2nd. I think Todd Button was bang on #20-50 you're getting a really good player.