Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Suave]

Originally Posted by Yikes

No we don't care.


We ship the product to the FOB point for x amount of money.



If the contract makes no sense then it makes no sense, let the CEO's work that out. But I don't see how it could not considering the logistics of this versus the hell the industry goes through now to get product to customer.

They have worked it out and it doesn't make sense.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Yikes

I'm probably wrong but I see it as simple.


1) Find a USA corporation(s) as a customer.
2) Get the suits to figure out a long term contract for x$ per ton, FOB: Coutts (or whatever), factoring in all that they factor in over the term.

3) Build a pipeline within Alberta borders, straight south.
4) Use rail as required.
5) When the product crosses the border Ottawa gets their cut.
6) We really don't care what the USA corporations do with their product (they now own it) or how they choose to move it, process it. That is between them and whomever it is they have to deal with. The big boys that would get in on this have more political connections at all levels than the fools in Edmonton and Ottawa could ever dream of, dangle the biggest carrot in history and they will find a way to move the muck.

You seem to think #5 is the sticking point. It is not.

Keystone XL had the customers and (presumably) the economics to make it work. TCE wasn’t building it out of the goodness of its heart. As such, it isn’t a question of customers or the deals in place. What the customers did with the product was never the concern. The big boys were already involved and couldn’t get the pipeline built in the US. Building it in Alberta to the US border was only because of the stupidity of Kennedy and the UCP funding a pipeline leg to nowhere.

The problems are in our own backyard. TMX should have been a slam dunk as it was expanding/replacing an existing older system within the same right-of-way. It turned into a #### show where the feds stepped in to buy the pipeline from a private company that didn’t think it was worthwhile given all of the uncertainties of building a pipeline within Canada.

You have it totally wrong.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Yikes

Of course, lot's a smart people around. Maybe we just are not playing to USA greed well enough to get done what needs to get done? Trust me, guys like Buffet could get this done faster than you would believe.

Buffet already got this done by buying BNSF railway and hauls lots of crude.

Cost is the problem.

[Yikes]

I probably do have it wrong...maybe the sticking point on the USA side is going west to tidewater instead of east? Deal with Idaho and Washington State instead of all of that BS east, fewer players...simplify? Ok, so drop the pipeline in Canada, ship it rail, huge conveyer belt following irrigation canals for all I care. Maybe create a huge switching yard on Indigenous soul just north of the border? Maybe the outgoing spur(s) into the USA are owned by USA rail companies?...dunno man. I do know that we are doing ain't working....BY A LOT!!

[GGG]

The sticking point is it’s not politically expedient for Biden to approve a pipeline

- Midwestern refineries get a discount on Canadian Crude shipped by pipeline
- left wing Democrat voters don’t like it so he can trash the pipeline while keeping US oil plays

The beneficiaries of the pipeline are Gulf coast refineries in red states and Canadian Oil Companies. Burning politics capita doesn’t make sense for Biden.

If we want to get tide water pricing for our oil we need to get our oil to tidewater.

[cal_guy]

Can't believe the UCP cancelled the Partial Upgrading program just to blow the money on Keystone XL.

[Suave]

Originally Posted by Yikes

I probably do have it wrong...maybe the sticking point on the USA side is going west to tidewater instead of east? Deal with Idaho and Washington State instead of all of that BS east, fewer players...simplify? Ok, so drop the pipeline in Canada, ship it rail, huge conveyer belt following irrigation canals for all I care. Maybe create a huge switching yard on Indigenous soul just north of the border? Maybe the outgoing spur(s) into the USA are owned by USA rail companies?...dunno man. I do know that we are doing ain't working....BY A LOT!!

Do you think we don't already have rail capacity going to the states? I am really not getting your point in pipelining it to the border only to put it on rail there, what is the difference between just railing it from Edmonton/Hardisty instead of the boarder.

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Yikes

Maybe create a huge switching yard on Indigenous soul just north of the border?

This point here amplifies you have no idea what you are talking about. No offense, but are you fairly young or something? Your arguments make no sense.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Yikes

Of course, lot's a smart people around. Maybe we just are not playing to USA greed well enough to get done what needs to get done? Trust me, guys like Buffet could get this done faster than you would believe.

The US is making a ton more money by restricting Canadian oil & gas.

The entire anti Canadian oil campaign has been a massive success economically & financially for the US, and for American companies who are now seeing record production & record profits.

Buffet has taken advantage of that I'm sure.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Azure

The US is making a ton more money by restricting Canadian oil & gas.

The entire anti Canadian oil campaign has been a massive success economically & financially for the US, and for American companies who are now seeing record production & record profits.

Buffet has taken advantage of that I'm sure.

Berkshire Hathaway (his firm) owns Burlington Northern Santa Fe, which moves signidicant oil by rail. It is also the largest shareholder of Occidental and has a huge stake in Chevron.

[Lubicon]

Tamarack buying Deltastream. This is a pretty significant deal, less than 18 months ago Tamarack wasn't even present in the Clearwater play.


https://financialpost.com/commoditie...4-billion-deal

[Harry Lime]

While a lot goes into the price that drivers pay at the pumps, the main culprit in B.C. right now is a shutdown of one of the region's main refineries, reducing the supply of gasoline. But demand for drivers has held steady, which has jacked up the price of what's available.

So, should we talk about the increasing bottleneck in gasoline refining capability that has been dogging us for decades, or just ignore it some more? The refine where you mine movement died a quiet death.

He also singles out another reason for gas price spikes: the supply of ethanol. Many U.S. states and provinces require that retail gasoline be mixed with anywhere between five and 15 per cent ethanol, the supply of which declined by seven per cent last week. "If that were to keep up the blending components are going up, as well," he said.

Ethanol doesn't move your car. It's there as a component to reduce greenhouse gas emission. In many older cars it's bad for the engine. It's also why a full tank of gas doesn't get you as far as it once did. As cars become more climate friendly, is this even necessary?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gas-prices-1.6601918

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

So, should we talk about the increasing bottleneck in gasoline refining capability that has been dogging us for decades, or just ignore it some more? The refine where you mine movement died a quiet death.



Ethanol doesn't move your car. It's there as a component to reduce greenhouse gas emission. In many older cars it's bad for the engine. It's also why a full tank of gas doesn't get you as far as it once did. As cars become more climate friendly, is this even necessary?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gas-prices-1.6601918

The bottlenecks won’t get any better. Refineries cost too much to build and the time/regulatory requirements no longer align with the long term viability. The only solution is increased throughout of exiting refineries through turnarounds.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Leondros

The bottlenecks won’t get any better. Refineries cost too much to build and the time/regulatory requirements no longer align with the long term viability. The only solution is increased throughout of exiting refineries through turnarounds.

Also The Alberta government just finished losing billions on redwater.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Also The Alberta government just finished losing billions on redwater.

Did they close that out? I thought the deal was they were paying a tariff for custom refining of provincially owned royalty crude and got to sell the refined products instead, and since it was way over budget they won't be finished losing the money for decades. Although refining margins have been very high recently which would certainly help...

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Did they close that out? I thought the deal was they were paying a tariff for custom refining of provincially owned royalty crude and got to sell the refined products instead, and since it was way over budget they won't be finished losing the money for decades. Although refining margins have been very high recently which would certainly help...

Yeah your right we continually pay every year. I was more just referring to the negotiated deal that will set up tariff being done. Whether it’s better than the previous deal is certainly debatable

[SeeGeeWhy]

It kept a lot of people employed during a tough time and is a technically impressive first of a kind project, and an operating carbon distribution system.

[Fuzz]

MEG Energy, an oil shipper on Canada’s Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, said on Monday the pipeline is expected to start filling with oil in late 2023 and be fully operational early next year.

https://boereport.com/2023/01/23/meg...cted-end-2023/

Nice.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://boereport.com/2023/01/23/meg...cted-end-2023/

Nice.

Another confirmed Danielle Smith lie!

BTW I am just catching up on this thread. Yes NWR lost a lot of money off the top and came in way over budget, but now with the price diff between WCS and Diesel it is making money hand over fist.

[Azure]

Do the pipeline operators make more money if the oil prices go higher in a year, or is it a set contracted transport rate?

If they do, could be a good few years ahead as prices are expected to stay higher.