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Old 10-04-2022, 09:56 AM   #8301
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If the US did it, and if Germany can prove it, and if Germany struggles to keep power/ heat over winter, then NATO could potentially collapse. Or the EU could pivot out of the US diplomatic structure.



I can't see why the US would do this unless they could guarantee German energy another way. Too much risk.
I was thinking through motivations. What if this has nothing at all to do with Russia? Well, maybe some of it has to do with Russia, but more to do with China and America's desire to hang on to top spot and prevent China from overtaking them? If the US can create a situation where Europe needs to shift their energy reliance more on the Americans and away from the Chinese (and Russia), while lessening European ties with China, it could be the best way for the US to try to knock China down. I haven't thought this through deeply at all so I'll probably be corrected quickly....
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Old 10-04-2022, 09:57 AM   #8302
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Its an interesting question, are NATO troops involved in Ukraine fighting directly with the Russians?

In the Vietnam War and especially in the Korean War we saw Russian Pilots who "Volunteered" to aid their fraternal Social brothers in a fight against the Imperial Capitalist Forces from the West.

We know NATO troops are involved in training. I expect NATO logistics specialists are on the ground to help get equipment and ammunition and other supplies to the front as quickly as possible.

But are NATO troops on the line fighting the Russians? I have my doubts, however I will put in a rider that I do expect that NATO has inserted Special Forces behind the lines to provide scouting and intelligence.

The other interesting thing is that the Russian's are not only fighting the Ukrainian Military, but western satellites both private and government owned. Its the impossible scenario in the concept of hyper fast war and shared data links.

Clearly Russia should in fact have the same abilities, but don't seem to be doing it all that well.

As well normal prewar doctrine includes trying to spoof these satellites, blind then, even try to take them out. The Russian's haven't taken those steps maybe because they feel that it would widen the conflict if they started shooting down Western Satellites.

I wonder if the Russians really wanted to demonstrated their nuclear capability if they wouldn't consider high altitude bursts that convert to EMP that could damage Western Satellites?
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:03 AM   #8303
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I was thinking through motivations. What if this has nothing at all to do with Russia? Well, maybe some of it has to do with Russia, but more to do with China and America's desire to hang on to top spot and prevent China from overtaking them? If the US can create a situation where Europe needs to shift their energy reliance more on the Americans and away from the Chinese (and Russia), while lessening European ties with China, it could be the best way for the US to try to knock China down. I haven't thought this through deeply at all so I'll probably be corrected quickly....
China doesn't have energy to export, they are a massive net importer of Oil, and have even faced severe power cuts to major industrial centres in the last year due to diminished hyro power capacity. But it is an interesting thought... again, I think the risk is too great. If you #### over an ally to try and ensure defeat of an enemy, all you really do is push the ally closer to the enemy. Why would Germany ever trust US again? Why would other less militarily powerful states trust US not to act like this if it's in their best interest? How can they be confident that the US best interest is aligned with that of their people?

It just diminishes US Soft power FAR too much to be a realistic consideration. This would be a huge unforced error.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:04 AM   #8304
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60 years to the month since the Cuban Missile Crisis and we are once again plunged into a world conflict that is on the brink of nuclear war.

Then on top of that, a global pandemic that has killed millions, climate calamites in every direction, hyper inflation across the globe, hostile tensions in East Asia between China/Taiwan/North Korea/Japan . . . .

It sure seems like we are in dark times, if not outright end times.

If it comes to that, I'm going out on my front lawn with a glass of whiskey and a gigantic spliff.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:15 AM   #8305
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Not sure I liked reading that :/
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:24 AM   #8306
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Not sure I liked reading that :/
I can quote Gandalf again if you'd like.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:25 AM   #8307
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60 years to the month since the Cuban Missile Crisis and we are once again plunged into a world conflict that is on the brink of nuclear war.

Then on top of that, a global pandemic that has killed millions, climate calamites in every direction, hyper inflation across the globe, hostile tensions in East Asia between China/Taiwan/North Korea/Japan . . . .

It sure seems like we are in dark times, if not outright end times.

If it comes to that, I'm going out on my front lawn with a glass of whiskey and a gigantic spliff.


From a more optimistic angle, consider that we're also at the anniversary of the Russian Revolution.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:25 AM   #8308
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The thing that scares me is that the talk about nuclear escalation is becoming normalized. A few years ago, any use of nuclear weapons was a big deal and taboo. No we have both sides talking about "tactical" nuclear weapons like it is no big deal really. It's like boiling frogs. While a tactical nuclear weapon doesn't have the same destructive power, the tit-for-tat nature of war will lead to incrementally larger nuclear devices being used.

I almost get the sense that the people in power are resigned to a nuclear war happening and want to normalize the idea to avoid mass panic.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:28 AM   #8309
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The parallels between that and Russian media are kinda shocking. It would be like a Russian professor saying Putin is at fault for the war on Russian TV. No one wants to even hear it.

That was interesting about the helicopters and radar info.
Almost like the media censoring talks of Wuhan covid lab leaks while Trump was in power?

US being behind the Nordstream explosions is a deeply flawed conspiracy theory simply based on Russia's lukewarm reaction to it (and China would have immediately condemned and blamed the US for it instead of insinuating).

The "US did it there were reports of helicopters" is getting up there with "WTC7 was a controlled demolition and here is proof why".
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:41 AM   #8310
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I can quote Gandalf again if you'd like.
It helps.
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Old 10-04-2022, 10:45 AM   #8311
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It helps.
“PIPPIN: I didn't think it would end this way.

GANDALF: End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path, one that we all must take. The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all turns to silver glass, and then you see it.

PIPPIN: What? Gandalf? See what?

GANDALF: White shores, and beyond, a far green country under a swift sunrise.

PIPPIN: Well, that isn't so bad.

GANDALF: No. No, it isn't.”


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Old 10-04-2022, 10:57 AM   #8312
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If it comes to that, I'm going out on my front lawn with a glass of whiskey and a gigantic spliff.
I do this on my back lawn quite often around 8pm. No need to wait for the end of times to indulge in some personal enjoyment.

The global climate has been awful the last two years. You neglected the whole US on brink of civil war in spite of massive unifying global situations element... there's really not a lot of comfort to look for anywhere. What about this obscenely warm fall we're having?
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:00 AM   #8313
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The global climate has been awful the last two years. You neglected the whole US on brink of civil war in spite of massive unifying global situations element... there's really not a lot of comfort to look for anywhere. What about this obscenely warm fall we're having?
Noted, I'll add it to my Palm Pilot
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:01 AM   #8314
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^ That's Oregon, right?
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:04 AM   #8315
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The only way I can see this is if there are elements within Germany who are getting set to make an energy or peace deal with Russia unilaterally. So the US damages the pipeline handcuffing any rogue German elements from making a deal with Putin.
If someone went rogue to prevent a peace deal, it would probably come from inside Russia
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:12 AM   #8316
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The thing that scares me is that the talk about nuclear escalation is becoming normalized. A few years ago, any use of nuclear weapons was a big deal and taboo. No we have both sides talking about "tactical" nuclear weapons like it is no big deal really. It's like boiling frogs. While a tactical nuclear weapon doesn't have the same destructive power, the tit-for-tat nature of war will lead to incrementally larger nuclear devices being used.

I almost get the sense that the people in power are resigned to a nuclear war happening and want to normalize the idea to avoid mass panic.
By both sides - I assume you mean both sides talking about one side launching them?
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:13 AM   #8317
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Its an interesting question, are NATO troops involved in Ukraine fighting directly with the Russians?
I imagine the answer is fairly simple; no.

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But are NATO troops on the line fighting the Russians? I have my doubts, however I will put in a rider that I do expect that NATO has inserted Special Forces behind the lines to provide scouting and intelligence.
Rather than having doubts that NATO troops are fighting on the front lines - what evidence is there that they are? Why would you think there are NATO special forces directly involved? I only read the NYTimes on this stuff so not super educated, are there credible stories of NATO troops deployed fighting on the front line?? Or... just what the Russians say?

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I wonder if the Russians really wanted to demonstrated their nuclear capability if they wouldn't consider high altitude bursts that convert to EMP that could damage Western Satellites?
Because if Russia uses nuclear weapons for the first time since 1945 they permanently cement their status as a pariah state, and gives the West the ability to pry India/China away from Russia. The nuance of how/where they use it won't matter much in a PR battle.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:15 AM   #8318
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I was thinking through motivations. What if this has nothing at all to do with Russia? Well, maybe some of it has to do with Russia, but more to do with China and America's desire to hang on to top spot and prevent China from overtaking them? If the US can create a situation where Europe needs to shift their energy reliance more on the Americans and away from the Chinese (and Russia), while lessening European ties with China, it could be the best way for the US to try to knock China down. I haven't thought this through deeply at all so I'll probably be corrected quickly....
I assume the pipeline is repairable. Its not like the thing got hit by a nuclear bomb.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:21 AM   #8319
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The thing that scares me is that the talk about nuclear escalation is becoming normalized. A few years ago, any use of nuclear weapons was a big deal and taboo. No we have both sides talking about "tactical" nuclear weapons like it is no big deal really. It's like boiling frogs. While a tactical nuclear weapon doesn't have the same destructive power, the tit-for-tat nature of war will lead to incrementally larger nuclear devices being used.

I almost get the sense that the people in power are resigned to a nuclear war happening and want to normalize the idea to avoid mass panic.
I wanted to jump in on this one, because I don't think it has normalized as much as we think. That threat has always been there, we've just since WW2, never had a situation like this in Europe.

But during the Cold War the American's absolutely included the use of Tactical nuclear weapons in their war planning in case of an invasion by Russia, because the perception was as strong as NATO was, in the opening days of a war, they wouldn't be able to stop Russia due to their massive advantage in troops, armor, Artillery, tactical aircraft etc. Also that the Russians would be able to probably for a period of time, disrupt resupply and re-enforcement from NATO. So the idea was using small to medium tactical bombs to attack key road and railway crossings. Logistical centers, vehicle parks, and Russian divisional head quarters, which would then give NATO forces a chance to Rally.

As well during the Cold War Soviet War plans included the use of Nuclear and Chemical weapons to the same effect against NATO troops.

If we would have had a true European conflict at the height of the Cold War we'd have heard the same rhetoric from both sides. especially the losing side.

I mean during the Cuban Missile Crisis one of the Soviet Submarines had loaded a nuclear torpedo and followed the standard war book commands that if it felt it was under attack it could ask for permission and fire that nuke at a US Carrier Group.

A busted radio, and a moment of sober reflection allowed us to survive what would have surely been an escalation to a nuclear exchange as American's don't count on an Aircraft carrier as a tactical asset but a strategic asset, just like they don't count a Missile submarine as a tactical asset, but a extremely valuable strategic asset.

By design the use of tactical nukes is far easier then the use of strategic nukes. In the old days the KGB held command of the warheads. A field commander couldn't just load up that bad boy and fire it without the permission of the KGB and thus the Politburo. It was literally a vote to launch, which to the chagrin of the Field Commanders would mean that it could take time for a "Vote" to pass. Which means that the situation could have changed for the worse or objections change.

In I think 1993 the whole scenario changed. The Russians because of budget cuts realized that their military was vastly inferior to the NATO forces arrayed against them, so the use of tactical nukes in the face of a NATO attack became highly acceptable. Because of that they redesigned their launch procedures on the tactical side and came up with what they called a "Quick draw solution". Instead of the military controlling the launchers etc and the KGB controlling the war head and launch codes. The Russian General staff controls all aspects of launch authorization under the supervision of a guy like Putin who has all the authority and no over sight.

What also exists now with the general staff is the ability to preauthorize launches. So if a situation gets to this point the button is already pushed, and the field commanders who have that pre authorization can launch.

So when Putin is blustering like this, its a warning with some teeth, I would expect that the quick draw scenario with pre authorization has in theory already happened, and Putin can basically push the button in Moscow.

Just some ramblings.
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Old 10-04-2022, 11:27 AM   #8320
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Russia has proven to be very weak. Is a New Cold War possible? I'm thinking it's more like the West starves Russia with brutal sanctions until they start to play nice again.
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