Calgary Public Transit - Discussion

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by darockwilder

That is an interesting app. Thanks!

There was also a deal a while back where you got some free upgrade, it basically lets you use some features in other cities if you’re travelling.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by darockwilder

That is an interesting app. Thanks!

And it works anywhere, not just Calgary.

[Fuzz]

Calgary is moving forward in negotiating a nearly $500-million arrangement with the federal government that would help the city replace some of its diesel bus fleet with up to 259 zero-emission electric transit buses.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...686433?cmp=rss

So becuase we get our electricity form burning natural gas, and natural gas buses exist, I'm really curious what the emmisions profile looks like between the 2 choices, and total life cycle costs including purchase price and fuel/electricity usage. I'd hope they did this analysis.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...686433?cmp=rss

So becuase we get our electricity form burning natural gas, and natural gas buses exist, I'm really curious what the emmisions profile looks like between the 2 choices, and total life cycle costs including purchase price and fuel/electricity usage. I'd hope they did this analysis.

1) Sorry, but I'm gonna be a bit pithy with this first bit.
Yeah, probably not. The people's who's job it is to make these kinds of decisions almost certainly didn't think to...you know, do their job. If only they had read a random message board post, they might have thought to do the analysis

2) Quick back of the envelope math
Diesel ICE Efficiency: 25-37%
But these are nat gas engines, which are 12-22%
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/20...to%2022%20%25.

For the power plants:
Combined cycle gas turbine efficiency: 50-60%
Typical coal plant efficiency: 35-38% (which makes up a pretty small part of Alberta electricity, and will be 0% by the time these busses are on the ground, but people like to bring it up when electric vehicles are mentioned)
Then there is a mix of other gas power plants, cogen, wind, hydro, etc.
Yeah, back of the envelope says, it'll be more efficient (the losses in transmission and charging will not be significant enough to make up the difference.
So yeah, electrifying NG busses will be more efficient from a carbon emissions point of view.

The way I look at it, all things being equal, prices is a proxy for energy intensity which is a proxy for carbon emissions. It's not 1:1:1, but it's a pretty good rule of thumb, especially if your comparing the same fuel (NG engine vs NG electricty generation)
If you're saving money for the energy use, then it's likely got a lower carbon foot print. Charging with NG powered electricity, is way cheaper than diesel, or a nat gas engine, so chances are, it's more efficient.

[getbak]

Also, the federal money being used to buy the buses only applies to "zero emission" vehicles, which natural gas is not, so they aren't eligible for that subsidy.

It's spending $100 million from the city to get $500 million in value. If they went with natural gas buses, the full cost would be paid by the city.

[Fuzz]

Sure, it make sense financially, I'm just curious how different the actual emmisions are. Governments have green subsidies for things that aren't always the best choice to reduce emmisions. So financially it may makes sense. It shouldn't be that hard to figure those numbers out with the information they have.

[Fuzz]

https://mjbradley.com/sites/default/...%2005nov13.pdf

Page 16, this compares CNG, Diesel and hybrid total GHG emmisions. Interestingly, CNG isn't any better than diesel.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Sure, it make sense financially, I'm just curious how different the actual emmisions are. Governments have green subsidies for things that aren't always the best choice to reduce emmisions. So financially it may makes sense. It shouldn't be that hard to figure those numbers out with the information they have.

That was exactly my point.
It isn't that hard. I just gave you some back of the envelope numbers that show it's almost certainly more efficient/will result in fewer emissions.

a 22% efficient NG engine is definitely going to lose out, emissions wise, vs even coal.
Transmission efficiency is typically between 92-85%
Lithium batteries are about as close to 100% as you can get.

So say a 35% efficient coal source.
0.35*.85 = 30% Throw in some battery inefficiency and you're still walking all over a 22% NG engine.

That's a worst case electric vs a best case natural gas.
Now consider that the actual grid is a mix of more efficient sources, and it's pretty obvious that the numbers go around.
A through analysis is obviously going to differ here and there, but when you're talking 22 vs 35, it's not going to move enough that electrifying the busses loses out.

[powderjunkie]

And over the lifecycle of the vehicles the energy grid will evolve to lower and lower emissions.

The logistics of an E-Bus fleet are interesting...does anyone know how far a city bus travels in a typical driver's shift?

[Fuzz]

Sure, it's all very hand wavy, but things like charging efficiency(10-15% loss), range loss in winter(and using electric heat for the bus) are all going to contribute. I'm not trying to argue they are less efficient, I was genuinely curious of the benefits and it would be good to publicize the actual emissions savings.

[Fuzz]

LOL, that's what I get for not reading the last sentence...

When all of the 259 electric buses are in service, greenhouse gas emissions in the city could be reduced by 13,000 tonnes per year, city administrators said.

Because that study I found showed no GHG benefit for CNG over diesel(though there were other emmisions benefits) it makes sense to see the EV's as replacing either equally. I had always thoguh the CNG would be better for emmisions than diesel.

[Fuzz]

The electric buses currently produce half as many greenhouse gas emissions and 100 per cent less tailpipe emissions than traditional buses. Other benefits cited by bus operators include the reduced noise of the vehicles and increased ease of driving.

https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/06/...mental-honour/

From St Albert.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

LOL, that's what I get for not reading the last sentence...



Because that study I found showed no GHG benefit for CNG over diesel(though there were other emmisions benefits) it makes sense to see the EV's as replacing either equally. I had always thoguh the CNG would be better for emmisions than diesel.

The biggest benefits of CNG vs diesel, or gas for vehicles like busses has always been NOx and particulate emissions.
It's more of an air quality play vs GHG emissions.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

It's more of an air quality play vs GHG emissions.

On that front, we need to figure out how to stop the catalytic converter thefts that lead to more and more vehicles being straight piped.

I always wanted mandatory emissions testing to nail the diesel bros, but now we're in a spot where victims of crime are forced this route to avoid several thousand dollars of incurred repair costs.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So becuase we get our electricity form burning natural gas, and natural gas buses exist, I'm really curious what the emmisions profile looks like between the 2 choices, and total life cycle costs including purchase price and fuel/electricity usage. I'd hope they did this analysis.

I haven't seen one for Calgary, but Seattle which plans to replace all of its diesel-hybrid buses, the total life-cycle costs are so high in the moderate (most likely) scenario that its bus fleet will shrink by about 25% without additional sources of funding.

https://seattletransitblog.com/2020/...-all-electric/

Into the budget debate comes a remarkable report from Metro, laying out the steep opportunity costs of a transition to all-electric. Under the most likely assumptions, battery electric buses and infrastructure are 53% more expensive than a diesel hybrid fleet. Even with societal benefits including emissions priced in, it’s 42% more expensive. The added cost of a 100% transition from hybrid to battery is enough to buy 237,000 service hours annually through 2040.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by accord1999

I haven't seen one for Calgary, but Seattle which plans to replace all of its diesel-hybrid buses, the total life-cycle costs are so high in the moderate (most likely) scenario that its bus fleet will shrink by about 25% without additional sources of funding.

https://seattletransitblog.com/2020/...-all-electric/

Interesting chart - I’ll dig deeper once I’m off mobile, but a few things seem odd…are they not amortizing the capital costs, but using only 1 year of operating costs or something?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[powderjunkie]

I think I found the issue...looks like that chart may not honestly depict lifecycle savings, because the fleet is acquired gradually over those 20 years, but I think they include full capital costs (though to be honest I haven't read deeply to see if they account for this, but it would explain some of the odd numbers)



So the report basically accounts for like(a lot of rounding here):

15 years of ~150 buses
12 years of 170 buses
10 years of 180 buses
8 years of 200 buses
5 or fewer years of another ~160 buses

but includes the full capital costs for all 940 buses.

It would be far more sensible to account for the full projected lifespan of each unit. It also seems odd that they account for a bunch of disposal costs, but there are never any reductions to the fleet in my image.

The moderate case seems to boil down to an extra $330M in capital, and an extra $264M in maintenance costs...projecting the BEB's to be nearly twice as expensive to maintain, though the report can offer no reasoning to support (and in fact contradicts this notion)

Currently, Metro is assuming that for the moderate case, BEBs are more expensive to maintain;
however, there is much volatility in maintenance cost forecasts. Some reports show BEB maintenance
costs to be significantly lower than diesel maintenance costs,
15 and there is a good chance that BEB
maintenance costs will be lower than diesel-hybrid maintenance costs as the technology becomes more
widely adopted and transit agencies become familiar with it.

The "moderate" case actually seems like it might be intentionally pessimistic.

[para transit fellow]

a chance conversation reveals that most of the drug users at c-train station purchase a ticket to avoid citations from transit peace officers

how are turnstiles going to change the drug problems at LRT stations?

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

lol bullish*t.

Turnstiles aren't the miracle some think they are but they aren't buying any tickets.

[Wormius]

That doesn't seem that unusual. I am not sure about the buying tickets, but I have seen more a few people leave their passes transfers and tickets behind for whoever wants them after they get off the train.

Kind of like the old MEC system of giving your unexpired parking pass to the next person you see going towards the parking meter.