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View Poll Results: Who would you vote for?
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Biden
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6 |
66.67% |
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Trump
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3 |
33.33% |
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Kanye/other/Independent
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0% |
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Would not vote
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0% |
11-03-2020, 03:47 PM
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#221
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Franchise Player
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One of my cousins texted me. He decided he wasn't going to vote. Can't bring himself to vote democrat. Can't vote for Trump. Not going to matter though, he says the county will be heavy Red anyway. Don't think thats the best way to go, but it is what it is.
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11-03-2020, 03:49 PM
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#222
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
One of my cousins texted me. He decided he wasn't going to vote. Can't bring himself to vote democrat. Can't vote for Trump. Not going to matter though, he says the county will be heavy Red anyway. Don't think thats the best way to go, but it is what it is.
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If your cousin is normally a reliable Republican voter, -1 from the Trump column is better than nothing. Of course -1 Trump +1 Biden would be twice as good, but take what victories you can get. Also, if he's not voting, then that's an additional -1 from all the other Republican candidates down-ballot.
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11-03-2020, 03:53 PM
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#223
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
If your cousin is normally a reliable Republican voter, -1 from the Trump column is better than nothing. Of course -1 Trump +1 Biden would be twice as good, but take what victories you can get. Also, if he's not voting, then that's an additional -1 from all the other Republican candidates down-ballot.
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Dyed in the wool republican? Haha. Moreso because strict policy wise they are significantly better for business for him. With a 2 party system it sort of is what it is. At least he knows better than to vote for Trump. Tarrant county if anyone in Texas was curious.
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11-03-2020, 03:56 PM
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#224
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SW Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topfiverecords
Don't worry, they probably didn't leave their homes except to go to 7-11 for a big gulp and then back to video games and polishing their guns.
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Hey, aside from the big gulp, you just described me.
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11-03-2020, 03:58 PM
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#225
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Franchise Player
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Voter enthusiasm that was expected by the Trumpists does not appear to be materializing. No early crush by Republicans at the polls anywhere this morning if reports are accurate.
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11-03-2020, 03:59 PM
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#226
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Probably stuck driving someone somewhere
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These Fox News - yes Fox News - exit polls are something else.
Another one had something like 70%-75% in favour of more immigration or something along those lines.
https://twitter.com/user/status/1323756567108472833
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11-03-2020, 04:00 PM
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#227
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Voter enthusiasm that was expected by the Trumpists does not appear to be materializing. No early crush by Republicans at the polls anywhere this morning if reports are accurate.
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Source?
I believe you, just interested to read more.
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11-03-2020, 04:02 PM
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#228
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Probably stuck driving someone somewhere
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Quote:
Originally Posted by peter12
Source?
I believe you, just interested to read more.
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Its a tweet - I just saw that word-for-word on Twitter somewhere.
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11-03-2020, 04:02 PM
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#229
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Franchise Player
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^^^ Keeping an eye on the twitter feeds from news bureaus across the nation. I'm going blind on local TV updates!
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11-03-2020, 04:03 PM
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#230
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Franchise Player
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If there's no Trump surge, that is wildly good news.
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11-03-2020, 04:03 PM
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#231
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Voter enthusiasm that was expected by the Trumpists does not appear to be materializing. No early crush by Republicans at the polls anywhere this morning if reports are accurate.
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I'm reading the opposite in Florida though. Looking like Florida is unlikely for Biden.
Sounds like the target number for Dems hasn't been what they needed.
This is still all based on party registration, but Biden's team doesn't appear to be optimistic.
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11-03-2020, 04:04 PM
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#232
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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11-03-2020, 04:06 PM
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#233
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary Satellite Community
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFireInside
I'm reading the opposite in Florida though. Looking like Florida is unlikely for Biden.
Sounds like the target number for Dems hasn't been what they needed.
This is still all based on party registration, but Biden's team doesn't appear to be optimistic.
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11-03-2020, 04:07 PM
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#234
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greyshep
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Haha, who knows if that's going to end up being accurate, but I was just reading through Nate Silvers last post. It's sometimes difficult to get exactly what he's saying, then everyone arguing in response.
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11-03-2020, 04:13 PM
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#235
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFireInside
I'm reading the opposite in Florida though. Looking like Florida is unlikely for Biden.
Sounds like the target number for Dems hasn't been what they needed.
This is still all based on party registration, but Biden's team doesn't appear to be optimistic.
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What stats you seeing? The only thing I've seen is from the Florida GOP, and they have it as a small lead on party affiliation. They are also basing their numbers on a 109% voter turnout by Republicans, and only a 101% turnout by Democrats. So they are counting on an eight percent over-performance to achieve their numbers. They also are not mentioning the break of independents and what they looks like. The independents will settle Florida, as usual, it just depends on the break. If the early vote is consistent with what they report, the election is won in the independent mail-in.
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11-03-2020, 04:14 PM
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#236
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary Satellite Community
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
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Maybe I am missing something but this looks more like bad news for Biden? I thought early numbers from Florida are mail in votes? And then the walk up numbers (which are more likely Republican) are released later.
If that is true, Biden is already down by 173k votes before the walk up numbers come in.
Would be happy to find out I have this backwards.
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11-03-2020, 04:19 PM
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#237
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greyshep
Maybe I am missing something but this looks more like bad news for Biden? I thought early numbers from Florida are mail in votes? And then the walk up numbers (which are more likely Republican) are released later.
If that is true, Biden is already down by 173k votes before the walk up numbers come in.
Would be happy to find out I have this backwards.
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The numbers are based on party affiliation, not on actual votes. The vote that gets peeled off for being disenfranchised by each party was breaking 13% versus 4% from polling late last week. Then you have to factor in the independent vote and the break there. That it is this close is a good thing. Only 174K advantage is not the enthusiasm gap the Republicans likely need.
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11-03-2020, 04:21 PM
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#238
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
What stats you seeing? The only thing I've seen is from the Florida GOP, and they have it as a small lead on party affiliation. They are also basing their numbers on a 109% voter turnout by Republicans, and only a 101% turnout by Democrats. So they are counting on an eight percent over-performance to achieve their numbers. They also are not mentioning the break of independents and what they looks like. The independents will settle Florida, as usual, it just depends on the break. If the early vote is consistent with what they report, the election is won in the independent mail-in.
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It was just Nate Silver on twitter talking about what they think the GOP turnout needs to be for Biden to win or Trump to win, but the way he's wording it makes it seem like he believes he's wrong. He originally estimated that it needed to be +3.5% R for Trump to win, or else Biden would be favoured. He's saying it appears like it will end up +2 for R which you would think would be a good thing for Biden. That's how I would have taken it, but reading the replies, it's just people arguing about what is actually being said.
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11-03-2020, 04:22 PM
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#239
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Franchise Player
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11-03-2020, 04:23 PM
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#240
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Commie Referee
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Small town, B.C.
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