05-25-2022, 11:06 AM
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#141
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: VanCity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
It's 50% of teams forcing a game 7 win after being down 3-1. Not a 50% chance to come back FROM 3-1 down.
It's 15% if i remember correctly. Still not terrible . 1/7 chance
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Yeah sorry that's what I meant, assuming we can force a game 7. And the fact that we have been able to do that twice before gives me some hope.
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05-25-2022, 11:14 AM
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#143
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
It's 50% of teams forcing a game 7 win after being down 3-1. Not a 50% chance to come back FROM 3-1 down.
It's 15% if i remember correctly. Still not terrible . 1/7 chance
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Is that 50% comeback stat right because that seems awfully high? I'm shocked that half the time when a team goes up 3-1 the series goes to game 7.
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05-25-2022, 11:16 AM
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#144
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: VanCity
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calgarygeologist
Is that 50% comeback stat right because that seems awfully high? I'm shocked that half the time when a team goes up 3-1 the series goes to game 7.
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No it's 50% to win the series when coming back from 3-1.
Just coming back from 3-1 is like 15%.
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05-25-2022, 11:21 AM
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#145
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Calgary
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We got them right where we want them
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05-25-2022, 11:43 AM
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#146
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Jan 2007
Exp:
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nm
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05-25-2022, 11:58 AM
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#147
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: Sep 2003
Exp:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by genetic_phreek
No it's 50% to win the series when coming back from 3-1.
Just coming back from 3-1 is like 15%.
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Mathematically, the Flames have a 12.5% chance of winning 3 games in a row if the odds were 50/50. However, the chances in a playoff series are usually lower (<10%) because the team that got up to 3-1 did so because they're the better team (ie odds aren't 50/50 for each game).
However, I still think the Flames are the better team in this series and can pull it off. They just need to get it together!
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05-25-2022, 12:14 PM
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#148
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Lifetime Suspension
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Gaudreau and Tkachuk have yet to really put their mark on this series, early game 1 aside. I mean dominate possession on their shifts as well as produce like we've seen them do all year.
2 keys to a comeback for me is can those two turn it on here, and can we get over .9 goaltending.
If we start getting their A game like in round one game 7 facing elimination, then this series will be extended.
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05-25-2022, 12:58 PM
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#149
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Back in Calgary!!
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I think the conditions are positive for a comeback in this series. Don't get me wrong I'm mentally prepared for the likelihood of a second round bow out.
The saying always goes "Its a tall task to win 3 in a row." Well, the Oilers just won 3 in a row. I can see in a situation where the teams aren't really close (See 2019, second round 2015) But not only are these teams close, by just about every regular season metric the Flames are the better team. So why can't they win 3 in a row? Why can't they win 2 in a row and then take a game 7 coin flip on home ice?
Game 4 was a good start as far as their 5on 5 play is concerned. If they can start dictating the game rather than just hang on and cower to Mcdavid, it is absolutely there for the taking.
The experience is there, the coach is there, the pieces are there. They just have to do it. The Oilers as a team are not as good as the Flames are making them look.
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05-25-2022, 01:14 PM
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#150
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CGY
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The Oilers have had their share of losing streaks with this core and even in the past year. The Flames had spurts where they stumbled to bounce back stronger and better. The Oilers have shown to be immature in the fact they have gotten away from what makes them successful when they are riding high.
The Flames need to do to Smith what the Oilers have done to Markstrom and it is very doable. Just 1 game at a time. We need 3 wins and we can have 2 of the games at home. This team needs to be about changing the narrative of the organization. Coming back from 1-0 and 2-1 in game 7 when the opposition goalie was lights out shows their ability to dig deep.
Sutter needs to challenge his players to be their best and they need to believe in each other. Beat a flawed team 3 times. They can do it
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05-25-2022, 01:35 PM
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#151
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Franchise Player
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This team has been stronger mentally this year. Game 7 in round 1 is a testament to that. Game 4 is also a good example of that. Trailing 3-0 and fought back to tie it up. More of that please, and we can get back in this.
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05-25-2022, 01:38 PM
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#152
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I believe in the Jays.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Kitsilano
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I think my positivity actually went up after last game as the Flames controlled the play for the most part. After the Game 3 loss I felt a lot more discouraged as it seemed like the Flames were just outmatched. Just need Marky to steal a game here at some point, and for the focus level to remain high at all times.
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05-25-2022, 01:41 PM
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#153
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Franchise Player
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Ya I felt we were much better against their big guns last night.
I am calm, angry of course, but not really nervous.
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05-25-2022, 01:41 PM
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#154
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agulati
This team has been stronger mentally this year. Game 7 in round 1 is a testament to that. Game 4 is also a good example of that. Trailing 3-0 and fought back to tie it up. More of that please, and we can get back in this.
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And if you come back from a deficit, don't let up!
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05-25-2022, 01:44 PM
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#155
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djsFlames
And if you come back from a deficit, don't let up!
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Particularly when gifted a Mike Smith Special.
Flames also fought back on the road in Dallas when down 2-0 (Game 6 I believe) only to let it slip away.
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05-25-2022, 01:52 PM
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#156
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Closet Jedi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by genetic_phreek
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Normally when you go one on one, you have a 50% chance of win. But the Flames -- they're not normal. They have the best line in hockey, and that's better than just one player. So the Oilers have 33 percent, at best, at beat Flames. Then you add Mike Smith to the mix? The Oilers chances of winning drastic go down. The numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for the Oilers in Game 5.
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Gaudreau > Huberdeau AINEC
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05-25-2022, 01:59 PM
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#157
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: 161 St. - Yankee Stadium
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Disappointed so far, but oddly optimistic heading into game 5 and the rest of the series. I might have the Flames glasses on but I’m more confident in a Flames in 7 series than I was before game 4.
Regardless, I’ll be there tomorrow.. cheering loudly, throwing everything into supporting my team (except the wave) and believing until the end. We’re 93 games in, why jump off the wagon now?
And yes, I’ll be yelling “SHOOOOOOOT” every time our d-man has the puck near our own blue line… and welcome anyone else to join me.
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05-25-2022, 02:07 PM
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#158
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Cleveland, OH (Grew up in Calgary)
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Tbh the biggest thing that gives me hope is that Smith is still capable of being Smith. Yeah he’s played better than Marky for most of the series, but that long bomb goal he gave up was just embarrassing and made people forget about Marky’s gaff at the beginning of the game. The boys just gotta play like they did game 7 against the Stars: Get as many pucks on net as possible
__________________
Just trying to do my best
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05-25-2022, 02:31 PM
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#159
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by karl262
We got them right where we want them
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Hufnagel...that you??
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05-25-2022, 02:40 PM
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#160
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
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As negative as I am have been about this team, if there's a Flames team in the past few decades that can get this to a game 7, it should be this one.
Do I expect it? Nope. Would it shock me? Nope.
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