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Old 10-05-2020, 10:29 PM   #9981
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Belfour played 13 games for San Jose, probably not the best to read too much into that. Plus some goalies peak a little later in their careers, Holtby peaked about 4 years ago.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:29 PM   #9982
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What else could I write?
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:37 PM   #9983
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I think the site you looked at has 3 rows for 1995-96, a total row, a Montreal row and a Colorado row, because Roy only had 2 seasons under .910 in that time, the year of the trade and the year before it. They were sandwiched with a .918 before and .923 after
You're right, I was.

Here's Roy from age 25-30

1990-91: .906
1991-92: .914
1992-93: .894 (Won Stanley Cup + Conn Smythe this year)
1993-94: .918
1994-95: .906
1995-96: .907 (MTL) .909 (COL) .908 overall (Won Stanley Cup this year)
1996-97: .923

Then never below .913 the rest of his career.

We forget this in 2020, but people thought Roy was done too. He let in 9 goals his last game as a Hab, FFS. He was finished!

Except he wasn't.

Now, Patrick Roy had a lot of that Michael Jordan psycho in him. I don't know if Holtby does. Maybe he's a little more Jedi Master about it than Patrick.

Holtby is playing for a spot in the Hall of Fame. He has 282 wins, and if he averages around 30 wins a year, he'll be top-20 in wins all time in four years, and by then he'll be a lock for 400.

I think the Hall of Fame is a pretty good motivator for a guy who already has a ring to go along with his fat bank account.

Markstrom isn't ever going to the Hall of Fame, unless he becomes Hasek this summer. Once he signs that contract, what's his motivation? To win a Stanley Cup for the Calgary Flames? I mean, I guess, but I couldn't even keep a straight face writing it out, which would seem to bode poorly.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:38 PM   #9984
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The biggest thing with Holtby is it appears something is causing him to unable to make the high danger saves.

Over the last three seasons:

Holtby:

HDSV%: .806 (54th)
MDSV%: .923 (17th)
LDSV%: .977 (12th)

Holtby Goals Saved Above Expectation Trend: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...296126464?s=21

So the question with Holtby is if the High Danger has something to do with how Washington is playing, or if his athleticism has taken a hit.

Markstrom is a guy that has been a bonafide starter now over the last three seasons but I’m still not sure he’s elite. His best attribute seems to be that he’s consistent.

HDSV: .835 (22nd)
MDSV: .923 (17th)
LDSV: .968 (41st)

Markstrom Goals Saved Above Expectation Thread: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...834898946?s=21

So that is comparing the best three years of Markstroms career vs the worst three years of Holtby’s. Honestly I’d be a bit worried about either guy, Holtby for high danger saves, Markstroms been a guy that’s had some low danger goals against issues for his career.

And based on Moneypuck’s logic they actually had Holtby better than Markstrom in 17-18 and 18-19, they only have Markstrom as better in 19-20 So their is risk either way IMO.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 10-05-2020 at 10:43 PM.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:39 PM   #9985
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Gotta be a little careful looking at stats for guys that spanned eras like Roy. High scoring - dead puck - post lockout.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:43 PM   #9986
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Gotta be a little careful looking at stats for guys that spanned eras like Roy. High scoring - dead puck - post lockout.
Let alone a guy that played for some of the most stacked teams in NHL history.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:50 PM   #9987
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:51 PM   #9988
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We forget this in 2020, but people thought Roy was done too. He let in 9 goals his last game as a Hab, FFS. He was finished!
I don't remember anyone thinking Roy was done after that game. He was having a terrible night and his idiot coach refused to pull him, left him out to dry as some sort of ridiculous punishment.



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Holtby is playing for a spot in the Hall of Fame. He has 282 wins, and if he averages around 30 wins a year, he'll be top-20 in wins all time in four years, and by then he'll be a lock for 400.

I think the Hall of Fame is a pretty good motivator for a guy who already has a ring to go along with his fat bank account.
It would take a pretty serious bounce back for multiple years for Holtby to sniff the Hall of Fame IMO.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:51 PM   #9989
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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
The biggest thing with Holtby is it appears something is causing him to unable to make the high danger saves.

Over the last three seasons:

Holtby:

HDSV%: .806 (54th)
MDSV%: .923 (17th)
LDSV%: .977 (12th)

Holtby Goals Saved Above Expectation Trend: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...296126464?s=21

So the question with Holtby is if the High Danger has something to do with how Washington is playing, or if his athleticism has taken a hit.

Markstrom is a guy that has been a bonafide starter now over the last three seasons but I’m still not sure he’s elite. His best attribute seems to be that he’s consistent.

HDSV: .835 (22nd)
MDSV: .923 (17th)
LDSV: .968 (41st)

Markstrom Goals Saved Above Expectation Thread: https://twitter.com/chartinghockey/s...834898946?s=21

So that is comparing the best three years of Markstroms career vs the worst three years of Holtby’s. Honestly I’d be a bit worried about either guy, Holtby for high danger saves, Markstroms been a guy that’s had some low danger goals against issues for his career.

And based on Moneypuck’s logic they actually had Holtby better than Markstrom in 17-18 and 18-19, they only have Markstrom as better in 19-20 So their is risk either way IMO.
Call me old fashioned, but the high danger chances don't concern me nearly as much as the low danger goals.

A high danger goal is a golden opportunity. Yeah, you'd like a save there, but it's the best league in the world, and a 10-bell chance is going in the net more often than not.

There's nothing more demoralizing than a weak goal. Teams cannot overcome them.

Some cross-crease sauce to an $8M forward on his off wing that God himself couldn't save never sticks in your craw; a puck that your blind great-aunt could've handled, not so much.

Again, nobody we can get for free on the open market is going to be without flaws.

We have two very strong UFA options, and other fallbacks on the trade market.

Personally, as we have the opportunity to acquire someone who's won championship(s) as a starter, we should not pass that opportunity up. But I do acknowledge there's nothing approaching certainty with any option, be it Murray, Markstrom or Holtby.

To me, Holtby has the best body of work. He's the right age. I think his decline can be explained in large part by the pressure of having to win a championship every year when your captain is Alexander Ovechkin.

He put up .922 in the playoffs two years ago. Not six or seven. Two. That's nothing.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:53 PM   #9990
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Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
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Cup champs TB have let it be known to other teams they aim to be aggressive in offloading ��. How aggressive? Hearing teams have been told only four Bolts are unavailable/untouchable: Vasilevskiy; Hedman; Point; Kucherov. Presumably, RFAs Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, too.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:56 PM   #9991
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Without question, figuring out goaltenders is one of the great mysteries of life.
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:56 PM   #9992
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Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie
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Cup champs TB have let it be known to other teams they aim to be aggressive in offloading ��. How aggressive? Hearing teams have been told only four Bolts are unavailable/untouchable: Vasilevskiy; Hedman; Point; Kucherov. Presumably, RFAs Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak, too.
Who's even left when you take out all those names? The corpse of Stamkos and a bunch of $5 million 3rd liners?
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:58 PM   #9993
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I don't remember anyone thinking Roy was done after that game. He was having a terrible night and his idiot coach refused to pull him, left him out to dry as some sort of ridiculous punishment.




It would take a pretty serious bounce back for multiple years for Holtby to sniff the Hall of Fame IMO.
I'm not talking about after that game - that whole year, things had been rocky for Roy. There was no small contingent of fans and media pouring dirt on his grave.

But realy, you don't think 400 wins, Stanley Cup, Vezina, Jennings, and a career GAA in the range of 2.65 and .915 gets Holtby in?

I don't know if Holtby has many more .920 seasons in him, maybe one or two, but I would be shocked if he wasn't reliably .910-15 for the next five years.

I wouldn't put him in if he retired today, but all he has to do is be as good from 31-35 as Mike Smith was, and he gets in.
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