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Old 03-08-2017, 11:00 AM   #3561
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Old 03-08-2017, 02:21 PM   #3562
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WTI is going to go into the 40's by tomorrow.

Inventories at record high. How low will it go?

Last edited by polak; 03-08-2017 at 02:23 PM.
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Old 03-08-2017, 03:15 PM   #3563
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WTI is going to go into the 40's by tomorrow.

Inventories at record high. How low will it go?
It won't stay there for long if it does. Gas, diesel, and propane inventories fell, and the total combined stock level fell by 2.4M barrels.
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Old 03-08-2017, 04:02 PM   #3564
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WTI is going to go into the 40's by tomorrow.

Inventories at record high. How low will it go?
Lol. The sky is falling!!!
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Old 03-09-2017, 03:39 AM   #3565
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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...service=mobile

Shell really is moving out of Western Canada.7.25 billion American is a pretty big deal Im guessing.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:07 AM   #3566
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The article I read said $12.74B Canadian. Maybe that includes the value of the shares?

Anyways. Pretty big deal for Shell to unload everything in the oil sands.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:09 AM   #3567
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Great deal for CNR. Stock likes it anyway.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:12 AM   #3568
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That is pretty much it for the Calgary office. Time to shut the doors. My buddy just recently came back from vacation and Shell told him right away that his last day was at the end of April.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:15 AM   #3569
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The article I read said $12.74B Canadian. Maybe that includes the value of the shares?



Anyways. Pretty big deal for Shell to unload everything in the oil sands.


I heard Shell is liquidating $30B worldwide, so it's not just oil sands
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:23 AM   #3570
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I heard Shell is liquidating $30B worldwide, so it's not just oil sands
They still have some shale assets to sell here (Duvernay.)
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:31 AM   #3571
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The article I read said $12.74B Canadian. Maybe that includes the value of the shares?

Anyways. Pretty big deal for Shell to unload everything in the oil sands.
That $12.7 is CNQ's cost, so that includes the share value and also includes the amount paid to Marathon.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:39 AM   #3572
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Wthout knowing the intricate details of oil production, is this a good thing that an international juggernaut like Shell is selling to Canadian firms?
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:43 AM   #3573
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Wthout knowing the intricate details of oil production, is this a good thing that an international juggernaut like Shell is selling to Canadian firms?
I would say yes and no. It shows that you need economies of scale to be viable in the oilsands right now, and with this deal its a significant shot in the arm for CNRL. It increases a few factors for them which is great.

The other side of the coin is that this, combined with the write-down we saw from Exxon is showing that the super-majors don't see viability here. It's not just today, but over the coming decade that the oilsands aren't economically viable for new production. That is a bit scary to say the least.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:45 AM   #3574
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Personally I am starting to get a little wary of the size of CNRL and the affect it could have on regulators.
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Old 03-09-2017, 08:51 AM   #3575
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Shell made a bad bet on BG at the wrong time. They seem out of sync with the cycles. CNRL made what I think was a smart bet on the longer time horizon.
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Old 03-09-2017, 09:20 AM   #3576
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People who look at the oil industry as grossly profitable and take it for granted need to have a long hard look at what's been happening in the last few years. BP, Conoco, Apache, Marathon, Total, StatOil, Devon, and now Shell have all basically ceased operations in Western Canada. Soon it will only be CNR, Suncor, and the greatly weakened Cenovus and EnCana left to operate here, that's bad for the Province and city as a whole. Although as someone who owns a #### tonne of CNR stock I'm not complaining.
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Old 03-09-2017, 09:30 AM   #3577
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People who look at the oil industry as grossly profitable and take it for granted need to have a long hard look at what's been happening in the last few years. BP, Conoco, Apache, Marathon, Total, StatOil, Devon, and now Shell have all basically ceased operations in Western Canada. Soon it will only be CNR, Suncor, and the greatly weakened Cenovus and EnCana left to operate here, that's bad for the Province and city as a whole. Although as someone who owns a #### tonne of CNR stock I'm not complaining.
I think the implications for service companies, and other suppliers in the Alberta oil patch are quite severe. It consolidates the power of the companies to continue to keep prices depressed. There is already no profit in the supply of components and fabricated products, the next shoe to drop is labour costs will have to fall even further. That's not good news.
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Old 03-09-2017, 09:42 AM   #3578
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From the Globe and Mail article linked above:

"Mr. Stringham noted there is an irony that those European companies are the biggest proponents in the industry of carbon pricing, and yet are shifting their investments from one of the few oil and gas jurisdictions in the world that has a carbon price."
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Old 03-09-2017, 10:16 AM   #3579
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Alberta has literally lost any competitive advantage it once had:

- Access to pipelines still an issue
- Lack of faith in AB government over royalties. 2 reviews in 10 years doesn't create any kind of stability for pricing projects.
- Increased corporate taxes
- Increased carbon taxes
- cap on emissions

It's no wonder drilling in the US has picked up whereas we seem to be stuck in quicksand. Both our Fed and Prov governments have done nothing but hurt the industry with poor policies and not moving on key issues - namely pipelines.

It's a shame really and I don't see how we are going to get out of this rut. I remember 13 years ago when it was like a gold rush into Alberta and now companies are exiting as fast as they can.
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Old 03-09-2017, 10:18 AM   #3580
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The other side of the coin is that this, combined with the write-down we saw from Exxon is showing that the super-majors don't see viability here. It's not just today, but over the coming decade that the oilsands aren't economically viable for new production. That is a bit scary to say the least.
The write down was pretty much just a mandatory accounting exercise due to the strip price of oil. You should know that. It hardly has anything to do with Exxon's perception of Kearl's viability. If the price of oil rises they will just write it back up.

This has more to do with high cost oil than specifically the Oil Sands. Right in line with Shell selling off all their arctic stuff. They see the future in gas and not oil.


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Wthout knowing the intricate details of oil production, is this a good thing that an international juggernaut like Shell is selling to Canadian firms?
It's probably more of a bad thing because it just further solidifies Shell's belief that the future is gas and not oil. Given how heavily favored we are towards the oil sands now, that would be bad. At least we still have a bunch of gas though.


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Shell made a bad bet on BG at the wrong time. They seem out of sync with the cycles. CNRL made what I think was a smart bet on the longer time horizon.
I think that's a short term view. Shell's thinking 50 years out here, not timing 10-year cycles right. They're betting the future is gas. I'm inclined to believe them.


edit: So ya, I pretty much just said the same thing three times. Poorly structured post...
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