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Old 10-19-2021, 07:21 AM   #1021
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I mean the coin toss is literally gambling lol, if the Titans win it and go straight down the field then they win(for the record they had scored on their previous six possessions if you ignore the end of half possessions where they kneeled). It was the right call, not even close, it was just poorly executed. If you don't just do a power QB sneak then they should have gotten Josh to the edge where he can have options. Just a poor play call. Kicking there is playing not to lose which, more often than not, results in losing.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:24 AM   #1022
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I mean the coin toss is literally gambling lol, if the Titans win it and go straight down the field then they win(for the record they had scored on their previous six possessions if you ignore the end of half possessions where they kneeled). It was the right call, not even close, it was just poorly executed. If you don't just do a power QB sneak then they should have gotten Josh to the edge where he can have options. Just a poor play call. Kicking there is playing not to lose which, more often than not, results in losing.
Really though even if you make the 1st down they have to then take an immediate time out and you have 20 seconds to run two plays (maybe 3) and the 2nd play being the FG if they don't get a TD on 1st down. I just didn't see the upside with the amount of time left on the clock as your offensive plays are limited with no time to work with.

OT is set up pretty well to get both teams a possession so the coin flip to me isn't a big deal. Like I said before all the Bills defense had to do was not let Henry run through them for a big gain and I would take those odds. I feel pretty strongly the Bills are 5-1 today if they kick the FG but they are 4-2 because the coach decided to risk the game on one play.
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Old 10-19-2021, 09:35 AM   #1023
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I just don't like deciding a 60 minute game on the outcome of one play if you can tie the game with a short FG.
If you miss or have the FG blocked, isn't that also deciding a 60 minute game on the outcome of one play?
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:12 AM   #1024
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Really though even if you make the 1st down they have to then take an immediate time out and you have 20 seconds to run two plays (maybe 3) and the 2nd play being the FG if they don't get a TD on 1st down. I just didn't see the upside with the amount of time left on the clock as your offensive plays are limited with no time to work with.

OT is set up pretty well to get both teams a possession so the coin flip to me isn't a big deal. Like I said before all the Bills defense had to do was not let Henry run through them for a big gain and I would take those odds. I feel pretty strongly the Bills are 5-1 today if they kick the FG but they are 4-2 because the coach decided to risk the game on one play.
You don't see the upside because you continue to use 1990s NFL thinking. I mean you are a Raider fan, you have literally seen first hand this year how easy it is to get into FG range in two plays with no timeouts (and the Titans had all three so...). Even kicking on fourth and inches the Bills were more likely to lose than win. In 2020s NFL you have to play aggressive and to win. It didn't work out, but if they play again tomorrow and do the same the Bills win. And more often than not the Bills win doing what they did. Don't you always take the chance that is more likely to succeed, one that is backed by statistical evidence? Kicking the FG is actually playing a hunch and taking a risk, far more than going for it.
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:24 AM   #1025
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You don't see the upside because you continue to use 1990s NFL thinking. I mean you are a Raider fan, you have literally seen first hand this year how easy it is to get into FG range in two plays with no timeouts (and the Titans had all three so...). Even kicking on fourth and inches the Bills were more likely to lose than win. In 2020s NFL you have to play aggressive and to win. It didn't work out, but if they play again tomorrow and do the same the Bills win. And more often than not the Bills win doing what they did. Don't you always take the chance that is more likely to succeed, one that is backed by statistical evidence? Kicking the FG is actually playing a hunch and taking a risk, far more than going for it.
It's always generally been more profitable to be aggressive in football. Football coaches are just kind of luddites and as such it took the internet era and analytics to actually demonstrate this to them with concrete numbers.
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:28 AM   #1026
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We've reached the point where teams have perfected the 30 second drill. Offense is just so much more advanced now (and of course the rule changes over the years) that trusting your defense is just not smart anymore. And it is good to see more and more teams understanding the value in maintaining possession to as close to 0:00 as possible, that the offensive advantage is now so severe that even 0:20 left to give a team the ball is asking for trouble.
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:40 AM   #1027
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Henry is the most valuable player to his team in the NFL, I'm willing to die on that hill.

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Old 10-19-2021, 11:14 AM   #1028
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Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis View Post
You don't see the upside because you continue to use 1990s NFL thinking. I mean you are a Raider fan, you have literally seen first hand this year how easy it is to get into FG range in two plays with no timeouts (and the Titans had all three so...). Even kicking on fourth and inches the Bills were more likely to lose than win. In 2020s NFL you have to play aggressive and to win. It didn't work out, but if they play again tomorrow and do the same the Bills win. And more often than not the Bills win doing what they did. Don't you always take the chance that is more likely to succeed, one that is backed by statistical evidence? Kicking the FG is actually playing a hunch and taking a risk, far more than going for it.
I disagree that I'm 1990's NFL thinking. I have always felt NFL coaches are too conservative but this was not that case. I generally feel that teams on 4th and short or manageable should go for it anytime they are over the 50 yard line right up to the 30 yard line (or makeable FG range) and then it becomes situational based on the score. If I coached you would never see me punt on the opposition side of the field unless it's 4th and long and even that would depend on the situation of the quality of defense you are facing. In this particular case there was 23 seconds on the clock and if you make the 1st down you call TO and have maybe 20 seconds left. Your offensive playbook is limited to a very small handful of plays and the defense knows that it's going to be a quick slant or a fade into an end zone corner. Anything else is going to take too much time or risk a sack and possibly fumble. Take the FG go into overtime and have your full offensive playbook to get the win because I know I have the better team on both sides of the ball.
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Old 10-19-2021, 11:30 AM   #1029
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It's different now Erick. You have teams going for 2 to win or lose the game instead of going into overtime. And the from 2 yards out, not inches.
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Old 10-19-2021, 11:42 AM   #1030
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Even if they got it and ended up taking the FG, that's still much better than kicking on 4th down. 20 seconds and three timeouts? Titans get a FG chance probably 1 out of 3 times. Might be a 60 yarder, but that's still better than no chance. The Bills made the choice that offered the highest chance to win, not to lowest chance to lose. But it's like any situation where the odds are in your favor, you do lose sometimes. I mean doubling down against a dealer 6 is fantastic odds, but sometimes the dealer pulls a 21. Doesn't mean you shouldn't have doubled.
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Old 10-19-2021, 12:24 PM   #1031
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This might be an all-time, dumb, hot take.

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Old 10-19-2021, 12:31 PM   #1032
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Yikes. Before you decide to make a hot take you should make sure you make sure you know who plays on what team.
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Old 10-19-2021, 12:34 PM   #1033
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It's different now Erick. You have teams going for 2 to win or lose the game instead of going into overtime. And the from 2 yards out, not inches.
That really doesn't happen all that much although I do agree with that in the case of an inferior team playing with house money, fully knowing their defense won't be able to stop the other team from scoring in overtime. Jack Del Rio did that in 2016 in New Orleans knowing his crap defense would not be able to stop Brees in OT. If you are the better team I think you play it out rather than risk losing on one play.
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Old 10-19-2021, 06:27 PM   #1034
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Henry is the most valuable player to his team in the NFL, I'm willing to die on that hill.

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I think hes the best player in the NFL period.
But I might be biased. The best part, hes humble and wants to win for the team, not personal accolades.
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Old 10-19-2021, 10:11 PM   #1035
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I do think that within my lifetime we will see the day where unless you have 4th and 10 from your own 20 or 4th and 20 or more from your own 40, teams won't punt. Even if they changed kickoffs to be 15 yards from your own 35...I think a lot more teams would be willing to try that and keep the ball than put the other team at the 25.

With scoring and offence being what it is, receivers are just so damn good now, and it's so hard to defend, teams won't hate the idea of defending a short field with the objective of holding the other team to a Field goal attempt or getting a turn over. Really you often end up with your defense starting at the 25, having a team go 6 plays in 3 minutes and get 50 yards where you now have to defend that 25 yards with a tired defense. Or you put a fresh defense on the field at their own 30, and their goal is allow less than 3 first downs. The fresher sharper defense that needs to defend less territory may be more effective, and take less penalty's themselves, while inflicting more on the offence.

Another thing I see is teams kicking for a touch back with 30 seconds left. With how few returns can get to the 25, than consider the high chance of a penalty why wouldn't you purposefully kick to the 5 and force the other team to burn 5-6 seconds off the clock to get to the 25. Even if they get to the 30, that's one fewer play for the offence you traded for 5 yards. I take that trade any day. 95% of the time you'll be even or better, 3% of the time you might give up a larger return to the 35 or 40, and on that rare occasion, you could get burned.
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